Evaluating Subjective Uncertainty Information in National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Discussions
A pilot study was conducted to systematically evaluate the track and intensity forecast uncertainty information contained in NHC TCDs. A quantitative content analysis of past years' discussions was conducted and findings regarding the frequency and types of uncertainty information and the types of evidence cited (e.g., model agreement or spread, synoptic conditions) will be presented. A statistical comparison of uncertainty statements in TCDs and actual forecast errors will also be presented. It is hoped that this preliminary analysis will help guide future improvements to this product and provide a skill benchmark that can be used in developing and evaluating new uncertainty guidance tools. In addition, we believe this pilot study merely scratches the surface of this topic and is motivation for future work to investigate topics such as the estimated value, intended and actual use, interpretation by end users, and mode of dissemination of this unique type of tropical cyclone forecast uncertainty information.