Improved Aviation Forecast Guidance with a LAMP/HRRR Meld

IMPROVED AVIATION FORECAST GUIDANCE WITH A LAMP/HRRR MELD by Bob Glahn, Adam D. Schnapp, Judy E. Ghirardelli, and Jung-Sun Im Meteorological Development Laboratory National Weather Service, NOAA Silver Spring, Maryland

LAMP (Localized Aviation MOS Program) forecasts of ceiling height, visibility, wind, and other weather elements of interest to aviation have been produced and put into the NDGD (National Digital Guidance Database) for a decade. The HRRR (High-Resolution Rapid Refresh) model is now producing explicit forecasts of ceiling height and visibility, computed by algorithms based on variables directly forecasted by the HRRR. The Meteorological Development Laboratory has improved the LAMP ceiling and visibility forecasts by combining these two sources of information into a LAMP/HRRR Meld. The new forecasts show improvement over the original LAMP and particularly over the HRRR, in terms of bias, threat score , and the Gerrity Score. Meld forecasts are being provided in real time to the Aviation Weather Center for the 1200 UTC cycle for use in their summer experiment and in daily operations. This paper will explain how the meld is produced and will show selected verification and example forecasts.