Program: 23rd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences (96th American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting)

Program Chair: Daniel S. Wilks , Cornell University

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Sunday, 10 January 2016

9:00 AM-6:00 PM: Sunday, 10 January 2016

Registration Open for Annual Meeting

Location: Hall D pre-function ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

Monday, 11 January 2016

9:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 11 January 2016

Plenary Session 1

2016 Presidential Forum: Serving Society in Times of Crisis: Past, Present and Future

Location: La Nouvelle B-C ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

Moderator: Maureen McCann, News 13

Panelists: Admiral Thad Allen, United States Coast Guard (ret), Executive Vice President Booz Allen Hamilton; Kerry Emanuel, MIT; Shirley Laska, University of New Orleans; Max Mayfield, WPLG-TV/Former NOAA/National Hurricane Center Director

9:00 AM

Presidential Forum on Serving Society in Times of Crisis: Past, Present and Future

Recorded Presentation

9:05 AM

Opening Remarks (by AMS President Alexander E. “Sandy” MacDonald)

9:15 AM

Introduction of Moderator McCann (MacDonald)

9:16 AM

Introduction of Speakers (McCann)

9:20 AM

Opening Remarks of Speakers

10:05 AM

Q&A

10:30 AM

Concluding Remarks

10:30 AM-11:00 AM: Monday, 11 January 2016

Coffee Break

Location: La Nouvelle Foyer ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 11 January 2016

Session 1

Statistical Products for Weather Services – Part 1

Location: Room 226/227 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

Host: 23rd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences

Chair: Eric Gilleland, NCAR

11:00 AM

1.1

Improved Aviation Forecast Guidance with a LAMP/HRRR Meld

Bob Glahn, NOAA/NWS/Meteorological Development Laboratory, Silver Spring, MD; and A. D. Schnapp, J. E. Ghirardelli, and J. S. Im

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.0 MB)

11:15 AM

1.2

LAMP Convection Probability and "Potential" Guidance: An Experimental Hi-res Upgrade

Jerome P. Charba, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and F. G. Samplatsky, A. J. Kochenash, P. E. Shafer, and J. E. Ghirardelli

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.7 MB)

11:30 AM

1.3

The National Blend of Global Models, Version One

Kathryn K. Gilbert, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Weather Prediction Center, College Park, MD; and D. T. Myrick, J. P. Craven, J. P. Gagan, T. M. Hamill, D. R. Novak, D. P. Ruth, J. Settelmaier, J. E. Sieveking, and B. Veenhuis Jr.

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

1.4

Development of a New NAM-based MOS Precipitation Type System

Phillip E. Shafer, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and M. S. Antolik

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (467.2 kB)

Joint Session 2

Land Model Benchmarking: Benchmarking, Verification and Validation in Terrestrial Hydrology, Part I

Location: Room 242 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 30th Conference on Hydrology; and the 23rd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences )

Chair: Sujay V. Kumar, SAIC at NASA/GSFC

11:00 AM

J2.1

What is Benchmarking and How does it Relate to PLUMBING

Martin Best, UKMO, Exeter, United Kingdom; and G. Abramowitz, A. Pitman, and S. V. Kumar

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

J2.2

The Plumbing of Land Surface Models: Why are Models Performing so Poorly?

Ned Haughton, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia; and G. Abramowitz, A. Pitman, and M. Best

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

J2.3

Why are the PLUMBER Results so Terrible? A Diagnostic Evaluation of the Errors in Land Surface Model Simulations Across FLUXNET Sites

Martyn Clark, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. Nijssen, N. Haughton, and G. Abramowitz

11:45 AM

J2.4

Benchmarking NLDAS-2 Soil Moisture and Evapotranspiration to Separate Uncertainty Contributions

Grey S. Nearing, NASA, Greenbelt, MD; and D. Mocko, C. Peters-Lidard, Y. Xia, and S. Kumar

Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Monday, 11 January 2016

Lunch Break

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Monday, 11 January 2016

Lecture 1

Walter Orr Roberts Lecture

Location: La Nouvelle A ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

1:30 PM

L1.1

Understanding the Earth System through Numerical Modeling: Crossing the Disciplinary Frontiers (Invited Presentation)

V. Ramaswamy, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ

Recorded Presentation

Session 2

Statistical Products for Weather Services – Part 2

Location: Room 226/227 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

Host: 23rd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences

Chair: Matthew S. Wandishin, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado

1:30 PM

2.1

Bayesian Model Averaging and DICast Forecasts - Ensuring Consistency

James Cowie, NCAR, Boulder, CO

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

2.2

Bias Correction of Station Parameters Worldwide from Unified Model Forecasts

David L. Keller, 557th Weather Wing , Offutt AFB, NE

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

2.3

Real-time Monitoring and Flagging of Extreme Value Forecasts - A Practical Example

Gerard Croteau, EC, Dorval, QC, Canada

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

2.4

Probabilistic Hazard Detection using a Time-lagged Ensemble

Trevor Alcott, OAR, Boulder, CO; and C. R. Alexander and I. Jankov

Recorded Presentation

Joint Session 4

Land Model Benchmarking: Benchmarking, Verification and Validation in Terrestrial Hydrology, Part II

Location: Room 242 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 30th Conference on Hydrology; and the 23rd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences )

Chair: Sujay Kumar, NASA/GSFC

1:30 PM

J4.1

Benchmarking a Land-Atmosphere Flux Model using Information Flow Process Networks

Benjamin L. Ruddell, Arizona State University, Mesa, AZ; and D. Drewry

1:45 PM

J4.2

Use of a Priori Benchmarks to Evaluate the Performance of a Physically Based Hydrologic Model

Andrew J. Newman, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and N. Mizukami, M. Clark, A. W. Wood, L. D. Brekke, and J. R. Arnold

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

J4.3

CONUS-Scale Model Evaluation and Benchmarking for National Streamflow Prediction

Aubrey Dugger, NCAR, Boulder, Colorado; and D. Gochis, A. RafieeiNasab, J. McCreight, D. Yates, L. Karsten, K. Sampson, W. Yu, M. Somos, F. Salas, and D. Maidment

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

J4.4

Benchmarking Different Approaches for Harnessing Predictability in Climate and Hydrologic Initial Conditions for Seasonal Runoff Prediction

Andrew W. Wood, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and P. Mendoza, E. Rothwell, M. Clark, L. Brekke, J. R. Arnold, and S. Gangopadhyay

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Monday, 11 January 2016

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

Location: Hall D/E ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

Poster Session 1

Posters, 11-12 January

Host: 23rd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences

217

Nonlinear Local Lyapunov Vectors and Their Potential Application in Ensemble Prediction

Jie Feng, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and J. Li, R. Ding, and D. Liu

218

Application of the Analog Ensemble Methodology to Land Surface Conditions

Laura Harding, Pennsylvania State University, State College, PA; and A. Fisher

219

Improvement of Anomaly Forecast for Extreme Weather Events

Hong Guan, Systems Research Group Inc./EMC/NCEP/NOAA, College Park, MD; and Y. Zhu, Y. Luo, and B. Cui

220

Quantification of Forecast Uncertainty Using Polynomial Chaos Expansion

Junjun Hu, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and S. Lakshmivarahan and J. Lewis

221

Impacts of Physics Parameterization and Data Assimilation on Synoptic Feature Modeling in Severe Weather Outbreaks

Erin A. Thead, Mississippi State University, Mississippi State, MS; and A. E. Mercer and J. L. Dyer

Handout (1.4 MB)

222

Probabilistic Ensemble Forecasting using Bayesian Model Averaging

Steven Beale, Amec Foster Wheeler Environment & Infrastructure, St. John's, NF, Canada; and T. Bullock

223

A Probabilistic Statistical Climatological Relationship between Precipitable Water Vapor and Precipitation for Near-Real Time Forecasting Applications

Jacola A. Roman, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and R. Knuteson, S. Hubbard, S. Ackerman, and H. Revercomb

224

Using FRiskNH Model to Determine Freeze in New Mexico Vineyards

Elizabeth Arleen Smith, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, NM

225

Modeling Range-Dependent Biases in Long-Term Radar-Based Precipitation Estimates

John Nielsen-Gammon, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and D. B. McRoberts

Handout (2.4 MB)

226

A High-Wind Prediction Model for Bordeaux, Wyoming

Zach Finch, NOAA/NWS, Cheyenne, WY; and D. T. Lindsey

Manuscript (701.4 kB)

Handout (731.9 kB)

227

Diagnostic Variables Governing Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclones Revealed Through Composite Analysis

Alexandria D. Grimes, Mississippi State University, Starkville, MS; and A. E. Mercer

228

Clustering of Multi-model Hurricane Sandy Track and Cyclone Phase Space Forecasts using a Regression Mixture Model

Alex Kowaleski, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and J. L. Evans

229

Examining Intensity Trends During Extratropical Transition

Justin Alexander Baldizon Stark, CMMAP, Miami, FL

230

Benchmarking and Verification of Rapid Intensification/Weakening of Tropical Cyclone Forecasts by HWRF Model

Mrinal K. Biswas, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. H. Gotway, T. Fowler, and L. R. Bernardet

231

Statistical Drought Forecasting in South Central Oklahoma

Virginia G. Silvis, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. D. Hunter, R. McPherson, H. Lazrus, and M. B. Richman

232

Short Term Forecasting of Solar Irradiance using Data Analytics and Probabilistic Cloud Cover Forecasts

Peter J. Isaacson, The Aerospace Corporation, Chantilly, VA; and G. J. Bloy, E. B. Wendoloski, and C. N. Mutchler

233

Bayesian Analysis of Lightning Data Sets

Phillip M. Bitzer, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and J. Burchfield

234

Mitigating the Impact of Weather Forecast Error in Electric and Natural Gas Load Forecasting

Wes Hyduke, Schneider Electric, Minneapolis, MN

Handout (470.4 kB)

Joint Poster Session 2

Land Model Benchmarking: Benchmarking, Verification and Validation in Terrestrial Hydrology Posters

Location: New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center

Hosts: (Joint between the 30th Conference on Hydrology; and the 23rd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences )

Chairperson/Person in Charge: Michael B. Ek, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC

Chair: Sujay Kumar, NASA/GSFC

Comparison of Global Mountain Snow Storage Estimates and the Prospect of Improvement with Regional Climate Modeling

Melissa L. Wrzesien, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH; and M. T. Durand and T. M. Pavelsky

Basin-Scale Evaluation of the Land Surface Water Budget in the NCEP Operational and Research NLDAS-2 Systems

Youlong Xia, IMSG at EMC/NCEP, College Park, MD; and M. Ek, B. Cosgrove, K. Mitchell, C. Peters-Lidard, M. J. Brewer, D. M. Mocko, S. V. Kumar, H. Wei, J. Meng, and L. Luo

The Uncertainty of Precipitation-type Observations and its Effect on the Validation of the Forecast Precipitation Type

Heather D. Reeves, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK

Evaluating Evaporation Components in Flux Data and Model Output

Emma L. Robinson, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, United Kingdom; and E. Blyth

Handout (1.2 MB)

Evaluating a High-resolution Operational LDAS/LSM with In-situ Soil Measurements Throughout North Carolina

John N. McHenry, Baron Advanced Meteorological Systems, LLC, Raleigh, NC; and A. Sims and D. T. Olerud

Similarity Assessment of NLDAS Multi-Model Ensemble Outputs

Shugong Wang, SAIC at NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. Kumar, D. Mocko, C. Peters-Lidard, Y. Xia, and M. Ek

Quantifying the Mismatch between Snow and Climate in Global Reanalyses and Land Models

Patrick D. Broxton, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and X. Zeng and N. Dawson

Estimates of Global Surface Hydrology and Heat Fluxes from the Community Land Model (CLM4.5) with Four Atmospheric Forcing Datasets: Intercomparison and Assessment

Aihui Wang, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; and X. Zeng and D. Guo

The North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) Science Testbed: An Environment for the Systematic Evaluation and Benchmarking of NLDAS Outputs

David M. Mocko, SAIC at NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. V. Kumar, S. Wang, K. R. Arsenault, C. Peters-Lidard, G. S. Nearing, Y. Xia, M. B. Ek, and J. Dong

An Evaluation of the ERDC CRREL FASST Land Surface Model Relative to Measurements and a Comparable, Widely Used Land Surface Model

The Land Verification Toolkit---A Common Methodology For Benchmarks, Evaluation Procedures, And Metrics For The Land Surface Modeling Community

Jerry Wegiel, SAIC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. V. Kumar, C. Peters-Lidard, M. Best, M. B. Ek, S. G. Benjamin, J. D. Cetola, J. B. Eylander, K. R. Arsenault, J. Geiger, D. M. Mocko, S. Wang, C. Franks, R. L. Ruhge, E. D. Hunt, T. A. Lewiston, M. Freimund, N. Wright, T. Smirnova, S. Rheingrover, K. W. Harrison, Y. Tian, Y. Liu, J. A. Santanello Jr., and M. Shaw

100

Stochastic Analysis of Nonlinear Sorption at the Cape Cod Tracer Site

Neal T. Graham, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and F. Miralles-Wilhelm

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Monday, 11 January 2016

Session 3

Statistical Forecasting

Location: Room 226/227 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

Host: 23rd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences

Chair: Eric Gilleland, NCAR

4:00 PM

3.2

Predicting Seasonal Tornado Activity

James B. Elsner, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL

Recorded Presentation

Handout (1.8 MB)

3.1

Modeling Large-Scale Atmospheric Flow Using a Mixture of Local Linear Empirical Models

4:30 PM

3.3

Sensitivity of Spatial Structure of Forecasts on Model Parameters

Caren Marzban, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and N. Li, C. Jones, and S. Sandgathe

Recorded Presentation

Handout (1.1 MB)

4:45 PM

3.4

The Temporal and Probabilistic Relationship between Lightning Jump Occurrence and Radar-Derived Thunderstorm Intensification

Christopher J. Schultz, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and P. M. Bitzer, L. D. Carey, T. Chronis, and S. M. Stough

Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM

3.5

Convective Precipitation Estimation in Complex Terrain by using Cloud-to-ground Lightning

Carlos M. Minjarez-Sosa, Universidad de Sonora, Hermosillo, Mexico; and J. Waissman-Vilanova

Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM

3.6

Stochastic simulation of predictive space-time scenarios of wind speed using observations and physical model

Julie Bessac, ANL, Lemont, IL; and E. Constantinescu and M. Anitescu

Recorded Presentation

5:30 PM-7:30 PM: Monday, 11 January 2016

Exhibits Opening Reception, Ribbon Cutting, and Corporate Recognition

Location: Hall D/E ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

Tuesday, 12 January 2016

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Tuesday, 12 January 2016

Session 4

Ensemble Forecasting – Part 1

Location: Room 226/227 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

Host: 23rd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences

Chair: Michael Scheuerer, NOAA/ESRL

8:30 AM

4.1

Accounting for Model Uncertainties with Stochastic Forcing and the Impact on Ensemble Performance

Mozheng Wei, NRL, Stennis Space Center, MS; and P. Martin, P. Haley Jr., P. F. J. Lermusiaux, C. Barron, C. Rowley, and G. Jacobs

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

4.2

Inducing Tropical Cyclones to Undergo Brownian Motion

Daniel Hodyss, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. G. McLay, J. Moskaitis, and E. Serra

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

4.3

Investigating the Performance of Multi-Model Ensemble Prediction Systems

Elizabeth A. Satterfield, NRL, Monterey, CA; and W. F. Campbell and C. H. Bishop

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

4.4

Use of Path Clustering of a Multi-model Ensemble to Diagnose Causes of Differences in the Motion of Hurricane Sandy

Jenni L. Evans, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and A. Kowaleski

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

4.5

Gridded Probabilistic Forecasts of Weather Parameters with an Analog Ensemble

Simone Sperati, Ricerca Sistema Energetico, Milan, Italy; and S. Alessandrini, L. Delle Monache, G. Cervone, L. Harding, and S. E. Haupt

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM-11:00 AM: Tuesday, 12 January 2016

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

Location: Hall D/E ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 12 January 2016

Session 5

Ensemble Forecasting – Part 2

Location: Room 226/227 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

Host: 23rd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences

Chair: Michael Scheuerer, NOAA

11:00 AM

5.1

Improving Ensemble Forecasting in the Global Forecast System by Better Accounting for Additional Sources of Uncertainty

Philip Pegion, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and G. Bates, M. Gehne, T. Hamill, and J. S. Whitaker

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

5.2

New Mesoscale Multimodel Ensemble Prediction System in Spain

Jose A. Garcia-Moya, Agencia Estatal de Meteorologia AEMET, Madrid, Spain; and A. Callado, P. Escriba, and C. Santos

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

5.3

A Combined Method for Forecasting Extreme Monthly Precipitation in Europe

Christophe Lavaysse, European Commission, Ispra, Italy; and J. Vogt, A. Torreti, J. Thielen, and G. Masato

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

5.4

The Impacts of Ensemble Size and Initial Perturbation Calibration on the probabilistic forecast performance

Mozheng Wei, NRL, Stennis Space Center, MS; and C. Rowley, C. Barron, and P. Martin

Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Tuesday, 12 January 2016

Lunch Break

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Tuesday, 12 January 2016

Lecture 2

Bernhard Haurwitz Lecture

Location: La Nouvelle C ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

1:30 PM

L2.1

What's Happening over the Poles? (Invited Presentation)

John Marshall, MIT, Cambridge, MA

Recorded Presentation

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Tuesday, 12 January 2016

Session 6

Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts – Part 1

Location: Room 226/227 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

Host: 23rd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences

Chair: Daniel S. Wilks, Cornell University

1:30 PM

6.1

Statistical Post-processing of Ensemble Forecasts: Recent Developments and Current Issues (Invited Presentation)

Michael Scheuerer, NOAA, Boulder, CO

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

6.2

A Comparative Study of Statistical Post-processing Methods for the Calibration of Ensemble Forecasts

Nina Schuhen, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; and P. Buchanan, G. Evans, and S. Jackson

2:15 PM

6.3

Inclusion of New Ensemble Probabilistic Forecasts to NAEFS

Bo Cui, IMSG at EMC/NCEP, College Park, MD; and Y. Zhu, H. Guan, and W. Meng

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

6.4

Improvement of Multi-model Ensemble Forecasting using Recursive Bayesian Model Process

Hong Guan, Systems Research Group Inc./EMC/NCEP/NOAA, College Park, MD; and J. Zhu and B. Cui

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

6.5

Consensus Forecasting using Constrained, Regularized Regression

John K. Williams, The Weather Company, an IBM Business, Andover, MA; and P. P. Neilley, J. P. Koval, and J. McDonald

Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Tuesday, 12 January 2016

Coffee Break

Location: Hall D ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

3:30 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 12 January 2016

Session 7

Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts – Part 2

Location: Room 226/227 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

Host: 23rd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences

Chair: Daniel S. Wilks, Cornell University

7.1

Calibration of Probabilistic Forecasts: The Bayesian Processor of Ensemble

3:45 PM

7.3

Probabilistic Forecasts of Precipitation Type Based on Global Ensemble Forecasts

Michael Scheuerer, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and S. Gregory, T. Hamill, P. Shafer, and G. Wagner

Recorded Presentation

7.2

A Framework for Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts Using Cluster-Weighted Modeling

4:00 PM

7.4

A Dynamical-Statistical Downscaling Approach for Range-Scale Numerical Weather Prediction

Yubao Liu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. Roux, L. Pan, L. Delle Monache, and J. Knievel

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

7.5.

An Investigation of Reforecasting Applications for NGGPS Aviation Weather Prediction: An Initial Study of Cloud Ceiling and Visibility Prediction

Kathryn L. Verlinden, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR; and D. Bright

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (5.3 MB)

Handout (3.1 MB)

4:45 PM

7.6

Calibrated Hub-height Wind Speed Forecasts in Complex Terrain from a Multi-initial Condition, Multi-PBL Scheme WRF Ensemble

David M. Siuta, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and G. L. West, T. Nipen, and R. B. Stull

Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM

7.7

Improving Forecasts for Locally Extreme Rainfall: A Probabilistic Approach

Gregory R. Herman, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and R. S. Schumacher

Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM

7.8

How to Optimize the Decision-Making Using Ensemble Probabilistic Forecasts?

Hui-Ling Chang, Central Weather Bureau, Taipei, Taiwan; and S. C. Yang, H. Yuan, P. L. Lin, and Y. C. Liou

Recorded Presentation

Handout (505.8 kB)

Wednesday, 13 January 2016

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 13 January 2016

Session 8

Best Practices for Statistical Inference in the Atmospheric Sciences – Part 1

Location: Room 226/227 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

Host: 23rd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences

Chair: Bob Glahn, NOAA/NWS/Meteorological Development Laboratory

8:30 AM

8.1

Analyzing Data: What to do till the Statisticians Agree (Invited Presentation)

Douglas H. Johnson, USGS, Saint Paul, MN; and J. R. Fieberg

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

8.2

Statistical Significance: the Wrong Answer to the Wrong Question (Invited Presentation)

Simon J. Mason, Columbia University/IRI, Palisades, NY

9:30 AM

8.3

Ingredients of Statistical Hypothesis Testing – and their Significance (Invited Presentation)

Hans von Storch, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht Centre for Materials and Coastal Research, Geesthacht, Germany

Recorded Presentation

Handout (665.2 kB)

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 13 January 2016

Coffee Break

Location: Hall D ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 13 January 2016

Session 9

Best Practices for Statistical Inference in the Atmospheric Sciences – Part 2

Location: Room 226/227 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

Host: 23rd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences

Chair: Bob Glahn, NOAA/NWS/Meteorological Development Laboratory

10:30 AM

9.1

Caveat Venditor, Lector, et Emptor (Invited Presentation)

Francis W. Zwiers, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada

11:00 AM

9.2

Testing the Tests: A Look at Size and Power for Hypothesis Tests of Competing Forecasts (Invited Presentation)

Eric Gilleland, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown, T. L. Fowler, and A. S. Hering

11:30 AM

9.3

"The Stippling Shows Statistically Significant Gridpoints": How Research Results are Routinely Overstated and Over-interpreted, and What to Do About It (Invited Presentation)

Daniel S. Wilks, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (705.3 kB)

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 13 January 2016

Lunch Break

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Wednesday, 13 January 2016

Panel Discussion 1

Best Practices for Statistical Inference in the Atmospheric Sciences

Location: Room 226/227 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

Host: 23rd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences

Moderator: Bob Glahn, NOAA/NWS/Meteorological Development Laboratory

Panelists: E. Gilleland, NCAR/RAL; Douglas H. Johnson, USGS; Simon J. Mason, Columbia University/IRI; Hans von Storch, Institut für Küstenforschung; Daniel S. Wilks, Cornell University; Francis W. Zwiers, University of Victoria

1:30 PM

Panel Discussion

Recorded Presentation

Lecture 3

Horton Lecture

Location: Room 244 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 32nd Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 23rd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences; the Fourth Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; the Fifth Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology Special Symposium; the Seventh Conference on Environment and Health; the 22nd Conference on Applied Climatology; the 13th Conference on Space Weather; the 19th Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA; the 30th Conference on Hydrology; the Special Sessions on US-International Partnerships; the 25th Symposium on Education; the 14th Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 12th Annual Symposium on New Generation Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the Fourth Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation: Enhancing Our Nation’s Readiness, Responsiveness, and Resilience to High Impact Weather Events; the Fourth AMS Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA); the Peter Lamb Symposium; the 20th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); the 18th Symposium on Meteorological Observation and Instrumentation; the 14th Conference on Artificial and Computational Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences; the 11th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the Seventh Conference on Weather, Climate, Water and the New Energy Economy; the Sixth Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the Fourth Symposium on Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Processes, Prediction and Impact; the 28th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the Events; the 18th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 14th History Symposium; the Eighth Symposium on Aerosol–Cloud–Climate Interactions; and the Special Symposium on Seamless Weather and Climate Prediction—Expectations and Limits of Multi-scale Predictability )

1:30 PM

L3.1

Climate and Humans as Amplifiers of Hydro-ecologic Change: Science and Policy Implications for Intensively Managed Landscapes (Invited Presentation)

Efi Foufoula-Georgiou Sr., Univ. of Minnesota/National Center for Earth Surface Dynamics, Minneapolis, MN

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Wednesday, 13 January 2016

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

Location: Hall D/E ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

Poster Session 2

Posters, 13-14 January

Host: 23rd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences

636

Identification and Analysis of Contiguous Hours' Climatological Wind Pattern Modes Utilizing K-Means Clustering Analysis combined with the V-Fold Cross Validation Algorithm

Charles J. Fisk, Naval Base Ventura County, Point Mugu, California

Manuscript (638.4 kB)

637

Temperatures in Transient Climates: Improved Methods for Simulating with Evolving Variability

Andrew Poppick, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL; and D. J. McInerney, E. J. Moyer, and M. L. Stein

638

Effect of Interannual Variations on Detection of Climate Change

Janet L. Daniels, SSAI, Hampton, VA; and G. L. Smith and K. J. Priestley

639

Nonstationary Daily Stochastic Weather Generator for the Great Basin Region

Kimberly Smith, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and C. Strong and F. Rassoul-Agha

640

Decadal Variability of Rainfall Extremes in the U.S. Northeastern Region

Ali Hamidi, The City University of New York, New York, NY; and N. Devineni and R. Khanbilvardi

641

User-Centric Metrics for Evaluating Solar Forecasts

Tara L. Jensen, NCAR/RAL, Boulder, CO; and T. Fowler, B. G. Brown, S. E. Haupt, B. Kosovic, and J. K. Lazo

642

Verification of GEFS Precipitation across the Eastern United States

Nicholas Hayden Balderas, NSF, Katy, TX; and A. Mejia and R. Siddique

643

Statistical Comparison of RAP Analyses with MPEX Observed Soundings

Andrew Wade, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Coniglio

644

A Machine Learning Analysis of the First Aerosol Indirect Effect Using in situ Cloud Measurements

Mark Bauman, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and J. H. Jiang, R. L. Herman, L. Mandrake, and J. D. Small Griswold

645

Impacts of Microphysics and PBL Physics Schemes on Tornado Outbreak Prediction

Erin A. Thead, Mississippi State University, Mississippi State, MS; and A. E. Mercer and J. L. Dyer

Handout (396.1 kB)

646

Self-Organizing Maps in the Near-Storm Environment: Toward Improving Tornado Forecasting

Alexandra Anderson-Frey, Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA; and Y. P. Richardson, A. R. Dean, R. L. Thompson, and B. T. Smith

Manuscript (938.9 kB)

647

Spatio-temporal Dependence Detection in Model Residuals

Lindsey Dietz, Minneapolis, MN; and S. Chatterjee

648

A Comparison of Two Daily Temperature Averaging Methodologies: Uncertainties and Spatial Variability

Jase E. Bernhardt, Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA

649

A Baseline Sounding Climatology and a Risk Assessment Tool to Forecast Impact Weather in the Tropical Island of Puerto Rico

Ernesto Rodriguez, NOAA/NWS Weather Forecast Office, Carolina, PR

650

Spatiotemporal Uncertainties in Flood Predictability in the Missouri River Basin

Rafael Resendiz-Ramirez, Universidad Autonoma de Baja California, Mexicali, Mexico; and G. Lopez-Morteo, I. Luna-Espinoza, and F. Munoz-Arriola

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 13 January 2016

Session 10

Extreme-value Analysis

Location: Room 226/227 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

Host: 23rd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences

Chair: Caren Marzban, University of Washington

4:00 PM

10.1

Extreme Value Statistics in Atmospheric Science: Progress and Current Challenges (Invited Presentation)

Daniel S. Cooley, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO

Recorded Presentation

Handout (1.1 MB)

10.2

Regime-Dependent Modeling of Extremes in the Extratropical Atmospheric Circulation

4:30 PM

10.3

A New Approach to Extreme Value Analysis in a Changing Climate

Prashant D. Sardeshmukh, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and Physical Sciences Division/ESRL/NOAA, Boulder, CO; and G. P. Compo and C. Penland

5:00 PM

10.4

Locally Extreme Precipitation in Models: Model Climatologies by Extreme Value Theory

Gregory R. Herman, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and R. S. Schumacher

Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM

10.5

The Occurrence of Extreme Monthly Temperatures and Precipitation in Two Global Regions

Max J. Nunes, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and M. G. Lebedeva, A. R. Lupo, and Y. G. Chendev

Recorded Presentation

5:30 PM-6:30 PM: Wednesday, 13 January 2016

Awards Banquet Reception in the Exhibit Hall

Location: Hall D ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

7:00 PM-10:00 PM: Wednesday, 13 January 2016

96th AMS Awards Banquet

Location: Great Hall ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

Thursday, 14 January 2016

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Thursday, 14 January 2016

Session 11

Climate Data Analysis and Downscaling – Part 1

Location: Room 226/227 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

Host: 23rd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences

Chair: Andrew Poppick, University of Chicago

8:30 AM

11.1

Estimating Statistical Uncertainty in the Australian Temperature Record

Simon Grainger, BOM, Docklands, Australia; and D. Jones, B. Trewin, and K. Braganza

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

11.2

A Real Time Algorithm Based on GOES Data to Estimate Hourly Air Temperature for Puerto Rico

Nazario D. Ramirez-Beltran, University of Puerto Rico, Mayaguez, PR; and C. M. Salazar, J. M. Castro, and J. Gonzalez

9:00 AM

11.3

A 6-Year Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Climatology and Its Relationship to Rainfall over Central and Eastern China

Rudi Xia, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China; and D. L. Zhang

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

11.4

Statistical Modelling for a Randomised Trial of a Rainfall Modification Technology

Raymond Chambers, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, Australia; and S. Beare, S. Peak, and M. Al-Kalbani

Recorded Presentation

Handout (4.4 MB)

9:30 AM

11.5

Daily Precipitation Extremes over Eastern United States: Variability and Change Stemming from North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones

Nirajan Dhakal, Spelman College, Atlanta, GA; and S. Jain

9:45 AM-11:00 AM: Thursday, 14 January 2016

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

Location: Hall D/E ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 14 January 2016

Session 12

Climate Data Analysis and Downscaling – Part 2

Location: Room 226/227 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

Host: 23rd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences

Chair: Andrew Poppick, University of Chicago

11:00 AM

12.1

Tropospheric Biennial Oscillation (TBO) Indistinguishable from White Noise

Malte F. Stuecker, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and A. Timmermann, J. Yoon, and F. F. Jin

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

12.2

A Fast and Objective Multidimensional Kernel Density Estimation Method for Climate Data Analysis: fastKDE

Travis A. O'Brien, LBNL, Berkeley, CA; and K. Kashinath, N. R. Cavanaugh, W. D. Collins, and J. P. O'Brien

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

12.3

Comparing Statistical Downscaling Method Performance: Different Methods, Different Metrics, Different Time Periods

John Lanzante, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and K. W. Dixon

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

12.4

A Bayesian Hierarchical Model for Statistical Downscaling of Climate Extremes Using Monthly Output from CMIP5 Models

Chi Yang, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China; and Y. Li

Recorded Presentation

Handout (2.0 MB)

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 14 January 2016

Lunch Break

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 14 January 2016

Session 13

Forecast Evaluation/Verification – Part 1

Location: Room 226/227 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

Host: 23rd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences

Chair: Caren Marzban, University of Washington

1:30 PM

13.1

Evaluation of Weather and Climate Forecasts: A 2016 perspective (Invited Presentation)

Barbara G. Brown, NCAR, Boulder, CO

13.2

The Daily Variation in Verification Scores

2:00 PM

13.3

Case Study Applying GIS Tools to Verifying Forecasts over a Domain

Jeffrey A. Smith, U.S. Army Research Laboratory, WSMR, NM; and T. A. Foley, J. W. Raby, B. P. Reen, and R. S. Penc

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

13.4

Feature-Relative Forecast Evaluation

Michael E. Baldwin, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and B. Fehnel and K. L. Elmore

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

13.5

MODE-TD: An Expansion of an Object-based Spatial Method

Randy Bullock, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and T. L. Jensen, T. L. Fowler, J. E. Halley Gotway, and B. G. Brown

Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 14 January 2016

Coffee Break

Location: New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center

3:30 PM-5:00 PM: Thursday, 14 January 2016

Session 14

Forecast Evaluation/Verification – Part 2

Location: Room 226/227 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

Host: 23rd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences

Chair: Francis W. Zwiers, University of Victoria

3:30 PM

14.1

Recent Advancements of Verification Capability for R2O Testing and Evaluation within the Developmental Testbed Center

Tara L. Jensen, NCAR/RAL, Boulder, CO; and J. E. Halley Gotway, R. Bullock, T. L. Fowler, and B. G. Brown

Recorded Presentation

3:45 PM

14.2

Forecasts of "normal"

Simon J. Mason, IRI, Palisades, NY; and C. A. T. Ferro and W. A. Landman

Recorded Presentation

4:00 PM

14.3

Towards Improving the Framework for Probabilistic Forecast Evaluation

Hailiang Du, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL; and L. Smith, E. B. Suckling, E. L. Thompson, and T. Maynard

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

14.4

Statistical Generation of Forecasts and Accompanying Observations and Steps towards a Universal Theory of Verification

Albert R. Boehm, AFGL Retired, Huntsville, AL

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

14.5

Verification of High-resolution WRF-ARW Forecasts for Vermont Utility Applications

James P. Cipriani, IBM Research, Yorktown Heights,, NY; and L. Treinish, A. P. Praino, R. D'Arienzo, M. Coombs, and A. Stamp

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

14.6

Evaluation of Convective Updraft Spacing in NU-WRF Simulations using Forward-simulation and Feature Analysis of KDP Columns

Marcus van Lier-Walqui, Columbia University & NASA/GISS, New York, NY; and A. M. Fridlind, A. S. Ackerman, X. Li, D. Wu, and W. K. Tao

Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM-5:05 PM: Thursday, 14 January 2016

AMS 96th Annual Meeting Adjourns

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Sunday, 10 January 2016

9:00 AM-6:00 PM: Sunday, 10 January 2016

Registration Open for Annual Meeting

Location: Hall D pre-function ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

Everyone presenting (both oral and poster) and/or attending the 96th AMS Annual Meeting must register and wear a badge. Early registration rates are valid through Tuesday, 1 December 2015. Registrations forms faxed or mailed to AMS Headquarters will be accepted until 15 December 2015. Online registrations will be accepted throughout the conference. Preregistration forms must be accompanied by one of the following forms of payment: check (personal/business/traveler's), money order, purchase order, or credit card number (MasterCard/VISA/American Express). Foreign checks must be drawn on a U.S. bank and made payable in U.S. dollars. Confirmation of registration will be sent once the form is processed. Refunds (less a $25 processing fee) will be granted only for cancellations received before 22 December 2015. Click here for more information on registration.

Monday, 11 January 2016

9:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 11 January 2016

PL 1

Plenary Session 2016 Presidential Forum: Serving Society in Times of Crisis: Past, Present and Future

Location: La Nouvelle B-C ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

This year’s Presidential Forum reflects upon the American Meteorological Society (AMS) annual meeting theme, "Earth System Science in Service to Society" that provides participants a better understanding of living through extreme events. Our society continues to experience the effects of more and more extreme events like hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, and drought, some as a result of our changing climate and others as a result of our expanding population. The AMS needs to continue to address lessons learned, and more importantly, identify what future actions it will take to help mitigate the impact of these devastating life-changing events. To highlight this, we’ve invited an outstanding panel of speakers – Admiral Thad Allen, United States Coast Guard (ret), Executive Vice President Booz Allen Hamilton; Max Mayfield, Director, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Hurricane Center (ret); Dr. Kerry Emanuel, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; and Dr. Shirley Laska, Professor Emerita, and founding past Director of the Center for Hazards Assessment, Response and Technology, University of New Orleans. Moderator Maureen McCann, News 13 Orlando, will lead a discussion of the panelists' personal experiences during Hurricane Katrina and Deepwater Horizon. The panel will also address AMS’s current activities that encompass research and forecasting of events and inspire our members to embrace a renewed sense of purpose as they direct our Society in the coming years.

10:30 AM-11:00 AM: Monday, 11 January 2016

Coffee Break

Location: La Nouvelle Foyer ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 11 January 2016

Statistical Products for Weather Services – Part 1

Location: Room 226/227 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

J 2

Joint Session Land Model Benchmarking: Benchmarking, Verification and Validation in Terrestrial Hydrology, Part I

Location: Room 242 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

There are significant challenges associated with assessing the quality and informativeness of both models and data products that are largely related to scale, heterogeneity, complexity, and representativeness. These challenges compound when assessing spatially and temporally distributed model/data products. This session solicits contributions related to innovative methods for: (1) Assessing quality of model/data products, and (2) Assessing the fidelity of models of complex terrestrial hydrologic systems. The former might include methods for measuring or interpreting accuracy, precision, uncertainty, information content, reliability, observability, etc., while the latter recognizes that models are valuable beyond simply their ability to make accurate predictions. Related to the latter we encourage contributions on model diagnostics, identification, and benchmarking. We are particularly interested in benchmarking studies that focus on evaluating the performance of models using a priori metrics and expectations of performance. The use of novel techniques to assess distributed data or models that focus on impacts to and understanding of coupled land atmosphere and hydrometeorological processes and prediction is also encouraged. Please contact the program organizer, Mike Ek (Michael.Ek@noaa.gov), or the session chair, Sujay Kumar (Sujay.V.Kumar@nasa.gov) for additional information.

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Monday, 11 January 2016

Lunch Break

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Monday, 11 January 2016

L 1

Lecture Walter Orr Roberts Lecture

Location: La Nouvelle A ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

Statistical Products for Weather Services – Part 2

Location: Room 226/227 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

J 4

Joint Session Land Model Benchmarking: Benchmarking, Verification and Validation in Terrestrial Hydrology, Part II

Location: Room 242 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

There are significant challenges associated with assessing the quality and informativeness of both models and data products that are largely related to scale, heterogeneity, complexity, and representativeness. These challenges compound when assessing spatially and temporally distributed model/data products. This session solicits contributions related to innovative methods for: (1) Assessing quality of model/data products, and (2) Assessing the fidelity of models of complex terrestrial hydrologic systems. The former might include methods for measuring or interpreting accuracy, precision, uncertainty, information content, reliability, observability, etc., while the latter recognizes that models are valuable beyond simply their ability to make accurate predictions. Related to the latter we encourage contributions on model diagnostics, identification, and benchmarking. We are particularly interested in benchmarking studies that focus on evaluating the performance of models using a priori metrics and expectations of performance. The use of novel techniques to assess distributed data or models that focus on impacts to and understanding of coupled land atmosphere and hydrometeorological processes and prediction is also encouraged. Please contact the program organizer, Mike Ek (Michael.Ek@noaa.gov), or Session Chair, Sujay Kumar (sujay.v.kumar@nasa.gov) for additional information.

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Monday, 11 January 2016

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

Location: Hall D/E ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

P 1

Poster Session Posters, 11-12 January

JP 2

Joint Poster Session Land Model Benchmarking: Benchmarking, Verification and Validation in Terrestrial Hydrology Posters

Location: New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Monday, 11 January 2016

Statistical Forecasting

Location: Room 226/227 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

5:30 PM-7:30 PM: Monday, 11 January 2016

Exhibits Opening Reception, Ribbon Cutting, and Corporate Recognition

Location: Hall D/E ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

Please join other attendees for the Opening Reception of the 2016 Annual Meeting, sponsored by the exhibiting companies. Local government officials and other dignitaries will be present for the ribbon-cutting event.