23rd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences

Program Chair: Daniel S. Wilks , Cornell University

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Sunday, 10 January 2016

9:00 AM-6:00 PM: Sunday, 10 January 2016


Registration Open for Annual Meeting
Location: Hall D pre-function ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

Monday, 11 January 2016

9:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 11 January 2016

Recording files available
Plenary Session 1
2016 Presidential Forum: Serving Society in Times of Crisis: Past, Present and Future
Location: La Nouvelle B-C ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Moderator: Maureen McCann, News 13
Panelists: Admiral Thad Allen, United States Coast Guard (ret), Executive Vice President Booz Allen Hamilton; Kerry Emanuel, MIT; Shirley Laska, University of New Orleans; Max Mayfield, WPLG-TV/Former NOAA/National Hurricane Center Director
9:00 AM
Presidential Forum on Serving Society in Times of Crisis: Past, Present and Future
9:05 AM
Opening Remarks (by AMS President Alexander E. “Sandy” MacDonald)

9:15 AM
Introduction of Moderator McCann (MacDonald)

9:16 AM
Introduction of Speakers (McCann)

9:20 AM
Opening Remarks of Speakers

10:05 AM
Q&A

10:30 AM
Concluding Remarks

10:30 AM-11:00 AM: Monday, 11 January 2016


Coffee Break
Location: La Nouvelle Foyer ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 11 January 2016

Recording files available
Session 1
Statistical Products for Weather Services – Part 1
Location: Room 226/227 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Host: 23rd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
Chair: Eric Gilleland, NCAR
11:00 AM
1.1
Improved Aviation Forecast Guidance with a LAMP/HRRR Meld
Bob Glahn, NOAA/NWS/Meteorological Development Laboratory, Silver Spring, MD; and A. D. Schnapp, J. E. Ghirardelli, and J. S. Im
11:15 AM
1.2
LAMP Convection Probability and "Potential" Guidance: An Experimental Hi-res Upgrade
Jerome P. Charba, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and F. G. Samplatsky, A. J. Kochenash, P. E. Shafer, and J. E. Ghirardelli
11:30 AM
1.3
The National Blend of Global Models, Version One
Kathryn K. Gilbert, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Weather Prediction Center, College Park, MD; and D. T. Myrick, J. P. Craven, J. P. Gagan, T. M. Hamill, D. R. Novak, D. P. Ruth, J. Settelmaier, J. E. Sieveking, and B. Veenhuis Jr.
11:45 AM
1.4
Recording files available
Joint Session 2
Land Model Benchmarking: Benchmarking, Verification and Validation in Terrestrial Hydrology, Part I
Location: Room 242 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 30th Conference on Hydrology; and the 23rd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences )
Chair: Sujay V. Kumar, SAIC at NASA/GSFC
11:00 AM
J2.1
What is Benchmarking and How does it Relate to PLUMBING
Martin Best, UKMO, Exeter, United Kingdom; and G. Abramowitz, A. Pitman, and S. V. Kumar
11:15 AM
J2.2
The Plumbing of Land Surface Models: Why are Models Performing so Poorly?
Ned Haughton, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia; and G. Abramowitz, A. Pitman, and M. Best
11:30 AM
J2.3
11:45 AM
J2.4

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Monday, 11 January 2016


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Monday, 11 January 2016

Recording files available
Lecture 1
Walter Orr Roberts Lecture
Location: La Nouvelle A ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Recording files available
Session 2
Statistical Products for Weather Services – Part 2
Location: Room 226/227 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Host: 23rd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
Chair: Matthew S. Wandishin, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado
2:15 PM
2.4
Recording files available
Joint Session 4
Land Model Benchmarking: Benchmarking, Verification and Validation in Terrestrial Hydrology, Part II
Location: Room 242 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 30th Conference on Hydrology; and the 23rd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences )
Chair: Sujay Kumar, NASA/GSFC
1:30 PM
J4.1
Benchmarking a Land-Atmosphere Flux Model using Information Flow Process Networks
Benjamin L. Ruddell, Arizona State University, Mesa, AZ; and D. Drewry

1:45 PM
J4.2
Use of a Priori Benchmarks to Evaluate the Performance of a Physically Based Hydrologic Model
Andrew J. Newman, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and N. Mizukami, M. Clark, A. W. Wood, L. D. Brekke, and J. R. Arnold
2:00 PM
J4.3
CONUS-Scale Model Evaluation and Benchmarking for National Streamflow Prediction
Aubrey Dugger, NCAR, Boulder, Colorado; and D. Gochis, A. RafieeiNasab, J. McCreight, D. Yates, L. Karsten, K. Sampson, W. Yu, M. Somos, F. Salas, and D. Maidment
2:15 PM
J4.4
Benchmarking Different Approaches for Harnessing Predictability in Climate and Hydrologic Initial Conditions for Seasonal Runoff Prediction
Andrew W. Wood, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and P. Mendoza, E. Rothwell, M. Clark, L. Brekke, J. R. Arnold, and S. Gangopadhyay

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Monday, 11 January 2016


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Hall D/E ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

Poster Session 1
Posters, 11-12 January
Host: 23rd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
218
Application of the Analog Ensemble Methodology to Land Surface Conditions
Laura Harding, Pennsylvania State University, State College, PA; and A. Fisher

219
Improvement of Anomaly Forecast for Extreme Weather Events
Hong Guan, Systems Research Group Inc./EMC/NCEP/NOAA, College Park, MD; and Y. Zhu, Y. Luo, and B. Cui

220
Quantification of Forecast Uncertainty Using Polynomial Chaos Expansion
Junjun Hu, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and S. Lakshmivarahan and J. Lewis

221
Impacts of Physics Parameterization and Data Assimilation on Synoptic Feature Modeling in Severe Weather Outbreaks
Erin A. Thead, Mississippi State University, Mississippi State, MS; and A. E. Mercer and J. L. Dyer

Handout (1.4 MB)

222
Probabilistic Ensemble Forecasting using Bayesian Model Averaging
Steven Beale, Amec Foster Wheeler Environment & Infrastructure, St. John's, NF, Canada; and T. Bullock

223
A Probabilistic Statistical Climatological Relationship between Precipitable Water Vapor and Precipitation for Near-Real Time Forecasting Applications
Jacola A. Roman, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and R. Knuteson, S. Hubbard, S. Ackerman, and H. Revercomb

224
Using FRiskNH Model to Determine Freeze in New Mexico Vineyards
Elizabeth Arleen Smith, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, NM

225
Modeling Range-Dependent Biases in Long-Term Radar-Based Precipitation Estimates
John Nielsen-Gammon, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and D. B. McRoberts

Handout (2.4 MB)

226
A High-Wind Prediction Model for Bordeaux, Wyoming
Zach Finch, NOAA/NWS, Cheyenne, WY; and D. T. Lindsey
Manuscript (701.4 kB)

Handout (731.9 kB)

229
Examining Intensity Trends During Extratropical Transition
Justin Alexander Baldizon Stark, CMMAP, Miami, FL

230
Benchmarking and Verification of Rapid Intensification/Weakening of Tropical Cyclone Forecasts by HWRF Model
Mrinal K. Biswas, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. H. Gotway, T. Fowler, and L. R. Bernardet

231
Statistical Drought Forecasting in South Central Oklahoma
Virginia G. Silvis, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. D. Hunter, R. McPherson, H. Lazrus, and M. B. Richman

232
Short Term Forecasting of Solar Irradiance using Data Analytics and Probabilistic Cloud Cover Forecasts
Peter J. Isaacson, The Aerospace Corporation, Chantilly, VA; and G. J. Bloy, E. B. Wendoloski, and C. N. Mutchler

233
Bayesian Analysis of Lightning Data Sets
Phillip M. Bitzer, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and J. Burchfield


Joint Poster Session 2
Land Model Benchmarking: Benchmarking, Verification and Validation in Terrestrial Hydrology Posters
Location: New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center
Hosts: (Joint between the 30th Conference on Hydrology; and the 23rd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences )
Chairperson/Person in Charge: Michael B. Ek, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC
Chair: Sujay Kumar, NASA/GSFC
89
Comparison of Global Mountain Snow Storage Estimates and the Prospect of Improvement with Regional Climate Modeling
Melissa L. Wrzesien, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH; and M. T. Durand and T. M. Pavelsky

90
Basin-Scale Evaluation of the Land Surface Water Budget in the NCEP Operational and Research NLDAS-2 Systems
Youlong Xia, IMSG at EMC/NCEP, College Park, MD; and M. Ek, B. Cosgrove, K. Mitchell, C. Peters-Lidard, M. J. Brewer, D. M. Mocko, S. V. Kumar, H. Wei, J. Meng, and L. Luo

92
Evaluating Evaporation Components in Flux Data and Model Output
Emma L. Robinson, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, United Kingdom; and E. Blyth

Handout (1.2 MB)

93
Evaluating a High-resolution Operational LDAS/LSM with In-situ Soil Measurements Throughout North Carolina
John N. McHenry, Baron Advanced Meteorological Systems, LLC, Raleigh, NC; and A. Sims and D. T. Olerud

94
Similarity Assessment of NLDAS Multi-Model Ensemble Outputs
Shugong Wang, SAIC at NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. Kumar, D. Mocko, C. Peters-Lidard, Y. Xia, and M. Ek

95
Quantifying the Mismatch between Snow and Climate in Global Reanalyses and Land Models
Patrick D. Broxton, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and X. Zeng and N. Dawson

97
The North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) Science Testbed: An Environment for the Systematic Evaluation and Benchmarking of NLDAS Outputs
David M. Mocko, SAIC at NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. V. Kumar, S. Wang, K. R. Arsenault, C. Peters-Lidard, G. S. Nearing, Y. Xia, M. B. Ek, and J. Dong

99
The Land Verification Toolkit---A Common Methodology For Benchmarks, Evaluation Procedures, And Metrics For The Land Surface Modeling Community
Jerry Wegiel, SAIC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. V. Kumar, C. Peters-Lidard, M. Best, M. B. Ek, S. G. Benjamin, J. D. Cetola, J. B. Eylander, K. R. Arsenault, J. Geiger, D. M. Mocko, S. Wang, C. Franks, R. L. Ruhge, E. D. Hunt, T. A. Lewiston, M. Freimund, N. Wright, T. Smirnova, S. Rheingrover, K. W. Harrison, Y. Tian, Y. Liu, J. A. Santanello Jr., and M. Shaw

100
Stochastic Analysis of Nonlinear Sorption at the Cape Cod Tracer Site
Neal T. Graham, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and F. Miralles-Wilhelm

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Monday, 11 January 2016

Recording files available
Session 3
Statistical Forecasting
Location: Room 226/227 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Host: 23rd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
Chair: Eric Gilleland, NCAR
4:00 PM
3.2
Predicting Seasonal Tornado Activity
James B. Elsner, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL
4:30 PM
3.3
Sensitivity of Spatial Structure of Forecasts on Model Parameters
Caren Marzban, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and N. Li, C. Jones, and S. Sandgathe

5:30 PM-7:30 PM: Monday, 11 January 2016


Exhibits Opening Reception, Ribbon Cutting, and Corporate Recognition
Location: Hall D/E ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

Tuesday, 12 January 2016

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Tuesday, 12 January 2016

Recording files available
Session 4
Ensemble Forecasting – Part 1
Location: Room 226/227 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Host: 23rd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
Chair: Michael Scheuerer, NOAA/ESRL
8:30 AM
4.1
Accounting for Model Uncertainties with Stochastic Forcing and the Impact on Ensemble Performance
Mozheng Wei, NRL, Stennis Space Center, MS; and P. Martin, P. Haley Jr., P. F. J. Lermusiaux, C. Barron, C. Rowley, and G. Jacobs
8:45 AM
4.2
9:30 AM
4.5
Gridded Probabilistic Forecasts of Weather Parameters with an Analog Ensemble
Simone Sperati, Ricerca Sistema Energetico, Milan, Italy; and S. Alessandrini, L. Delle Monache, G. Cervone, L. Harding, and S. E. Haupt

9:45 AM-11:00 AM: Tuesday, 12 January 2016


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Hall D/E ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 12 January 2016

Recording files available
Session 5
Ensemble Forecasting – Part 2
Location: Room 226/227 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Host: 23rd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
Chair: Michael Scheuerer, NOAA
11:00 AM
5.1
Improving Ensemble Forecasting in the Global Forecast System by Better Accounting for Additional Sources of Uncertainty
Philip Pegion, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and G. Bates, M. Gehne, T. Hamill, and J. S. Whitaker
11:15 AM
5.2
New Mesoscale Multimodel Ensemble Prediction System in Spain
Jose A. Garcia-Moya, Agencia Estatal de Meteorologia AEMET, Madrid, Spain; and A. Callado, P. Escriba, and C. Santos
11:30 AM
5.3
A Combined Method for Forecasting Extreme Monthly Precipitation in Europe
Christophe Lavaysse, European Commission, Ispra, Italy; and J. Vogt, A. Torreti, J. Thielen, and G. Masato
11:45 AM
5.4
The Impacts of Ensemble Size and Initial Perturbation Calibration on the probabilistic forecast performance
Mozheng Wei, NRL, Stennis Space Center, MS; and C. Rowley, C. Barron, and P. Martin

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Tuesday, 12 January 2016


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Tuesday, 12 January 2016

Recording files available
Lecture 2
Bernhard Haurwitz Lecture
Location: La Nouvelle C ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Tuesday, 12 January 2016

Recording files available
Session 6
Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts – Part 1
Location: Room 226/227 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Host: 23rd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
Chair: Daniel S. Wilks, Cornell University
2:00 PM
6.2
A Comparative Study of Statistical Post-processing Methods for the Calibration of Ensemble Forecasts
Nina Schuhen, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; and P. Buchanan, G. Evans, and S. Jackson

2:15 PM
6.3
Inclusion of New Ensemble Probabilistic Forecasts to NAEFS
Bo Cui, IMSG at EMC/NCEP, College Park, MD; and Y. Zhu, H. Guan, and W. Meng
2:30 PM
6.4
Improvement of Multi-model Ensemble Forecasting using Recursive Bayesian Model Process
Hong Guan, Systems Research Group Inc./EMC/NCEP/NOAA, College Park, MD; and J. Zhu and B. Cui
2:45 PM
6.5
Consensus Forecasting using Constrained, Regularized Regression
John K. Williams, The Weather Company, an IBM Business, Andover, MA; and P. P. Neilley, J. P. Koval, and J. McDonald

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Tuesday, 12 January 2016


Coffee Break
Location: Hall D ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

3:30 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 12 January 2016

Recording files available
Session 7
Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts – Part 2
Location: Room 226/227 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Host: 23rd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
Chair: Daniel S. Wilks, Cornell University
3:45 PM
7.3
Probabilistic Forecasts of Precipitation Type Based on Global Ensemble Forecasts
Michael Scheuerer, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and S. Gregory, T. Hamill, P. Shafer, and G. Wagner
4:00 PM
7.4
A Dynamical-Statistical Downscaling Approach for Range-Scale Numerical Weather Prediction
Yubao Liu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. Roux, L. Pan, L. Delle Monache, and J. Knievel
5:00 PM
7.7
Improving Forecasts for Locally Extreme Rainfall: A Probabilistic Approach
Gregory R. Herman, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and R. S. Schumacher
5:15 PM
7.8
How to Optimize the Decision-Making Using Ensemble Probabilistic Forecasts?
Hui-Ling Chang, Central Weather Bureau, Taipei, Taiwan; and S. C. Yang, H. Yuan, P. L. Lin, and Y. C. Liou

Wednesday, 13 January 2016

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 13 January 2016

Recording files available
Session 8
Best Practices for Statistical Inference in the Atmospheric Sciences – Part 1
Location: Room 226/227 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Host: 23rd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
Chair: Bob Glahn, NOAA/NWS/Meteorological Development Laboratory
9:00 AM
8.2
9:30 AM
8.3
Ingredients of Statistical Hypothesis Testing – and their Significance (Invited Presentation)
Hans von Storch, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht Centre for Materials and Coastal Research, Geesthacht, Germany

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 13 January 2016


Coffee Break
Location: Hall D ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 13 January 2016

Recording files available
Session 9
Best Practices for Statistical Inference in the Atmospheric Sciences – Part 2
Location: Room 226/227 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Host: 23rd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
Chair: Bob Glahn, NOAA/NWS/Meteorological Development Laboratory
10:30 AM
9.1
Caveat Venditor, Lector, et Emptor (Invited Presentation)
Francis W. Zwiers, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada

11:00 AM
9.2
Testing the Tests: A Look at Size and Power for Hypothesis Tests of Competing Forecasts (Invited Presentation)
Eric Gilleland, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown, T. L. Fowler, and A. S. Hering

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 13 January 2016


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Wednesday, 13 January 2016

Recording files available
Panel Discussion 1
Best Practices for Statistical Inference in the Atmospheric Sciences
Location: Room 226/227 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Host: 23rd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
Moderator: Bob Glahn, NOAA/NWS/Meteorological Development Laboratory
Panelists: E. Gilleland, NCAR/RAL; Douglas H. Johnson, USGS; Simon J. Mason, Columbia University/IRI; Hans von Storch, Institut für Küstenforschung; Daniel S. Wilks, Cornell University; Francis W. Zwiers, University of Victoria
1:30 PM
Panel Discussion
Recording files available
Lecture 3
Horton Lecture
Location: Room 244 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 32nd Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 23rd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences; the Fourth Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; the Fifth Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology Special Symposium; the Seventh Conference on Environment and Health; the 22nd Conference on Applied Climatology; the 13th Conference on Space Weather; the 19th Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA; the 30th Conference on Hydrology; the Special Sessions on US-International Partnerships; the 25th Symposium on Education; the 14th Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 12th Annual Symposium on New Generation Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the Fourth Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation: Enhancing Our Nation’s Readiness, Responsiveness, and Resilience to High Impact Weather Events; the Fourth AMS Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA); the Peter Lamb Symposium; the 20th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); the 18th Symposium on Meteorological Observation and Instrumentation; the 14th Conference on Artificial and Computational Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences; the 11th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the Seventh Conference on Weather, Climate, Water and the New Energy Economy; the Sixth Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the Fourth Symposium on Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Processes, Prediction and Impact; the 28th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the Events; the 18th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 14th History Symposium; the Eighth Symposium on Aerosol–Cloud–Climate Interactions; and the Special Symposium on Seamless Weather and Climate Prediction—Expectations and Limits of Multi-scale Predictability )
1:30 PM
L3.1

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Wednesday, 13 January 2016


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Hall D/E ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

Poster Session 2
Posters, 13-14 January
Host: 23rd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
637
Temperatures in Transient Climates: Improved Methods for Simulating with Evolving Variability
Andrew Poppick, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL; and D. J. McInerney, E. J. Moyer, and M. L. Stein

638
Effect of Interannual Variations on Detection of Climate Change
Janet L. Daniels, SSAI, Hampton, VA; and G. L. Smith and K. J. Priestley

639
Nonstationary Daily Stochastic Weather Generator for the Great Basin Region
Kimberly Smith, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and C. Strong and F. Rassoul-Agha

640
Decadal Variability of Rainfall Extremes in the U.S. Northeastern Region
Ali Hamidi, The City University of New York, New York, NY; and N. Devineni and R. Khanbilvardi

641
User-Centric Metrics for Evaluating Solar Forecasts
Tara L. Jensen, NCAR/RAL, Boulder, CO; and T. Fowler, B. G. Brown, S. E. Haupt, B. Kosovic, and J. K. Lazo

643
Statistical Comparison of RAP Analyses with MPEX Observed Soundings
Andrew Wade, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Coniglio

644
A Machine Learning Analysis of the First Aerosol Indirect Effect Using in situ Cloud Measurements
Mark Bauman, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and J. H. Jiang, R. L. Herman, L. Mandrake, and J. D. Small Griswold

645
Impacts of Microphysics and PBL Physics Schemes on Tornado Outbreak Prediction
Erin A. Thead, Mississippi State University, Mississippi State, MS; and A. E. Mercer and J. L. Dyer

Handout (396.1 kB)

646
Self-Organizing Maps in the Near-Storm Environment: Toward Improving Tornado Forecasting
Alexandra Anderson-Frey, Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA; and Y. P. Richardson, A. R. Dean, R. L. Thompson, and B. T. Smith
Manuscript (938.9 kB)

648
A Comparison of Two Daily Temperature Averaging Methodologies: Uncertainties and Spatial Variability
Jase E. Bernhardt, Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA

650
Spatiotemporal Uncertainties in Flood Predictability in the Missouri River Basin
Rafael Resendiz-Ramirez, Universidad Autonoma de Baja California, Mexicali, Mexico; and G. Lopez-Morteo, I. Luna-Espinoza, and F. Munoz-Arriola

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 13 January 2016

Recording files available
Session 10
Extreme-value Analysis
Location: Room 226/227 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Host: 23rd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
Chair: Caren Marzban, University of Washington
4:30 PM
10.3
A New Approach to Extreme Value Analysis in a Changing Climate
Prashant D. Sardeshmukh, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and Physical Sciences Division/ESRL/NOAA, Boulder, CO; and G. P. Compo and C. Penland

5:00 PM
10.4
Locally Extreme Precipitation in Models: Model Climatologies by Extreme Value Theory
Gregory R. Herman, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and R. S. Schumacher
5:15 PM
10.5

5:30 PM-6:30 PM: Wednesday, 13 January 2016


Awards Banquet Reception in the Exhibit Hall
Location: Hall D ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

7:00 PM-10:00 PM: Wednesday, 13 January 2016


96th AMS Awards Banquet
Location: Great Hall ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

Thursday, 14 January 2016

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Thursday, 14 January 2016

Recording files available
Session 11
Climate Data Analysis and Downscaling – Part 1
Location: Room 226/227 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Host: 23rd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
Chair: Andrew Poppick, University of Chicago
8:30 AM
11.1
Estimating Statistical Uncertainty in the Australian Temperature Record
Simon Grainger, BOM, Docklands, Australia; and D. Jones, B. Trewin, and K. Braganza
8:45 AM
11.2
9:00 AM
11.3

9:45 AM-11:00 AM: Thursday, 14 January 2016


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Hall D/E ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 14 January 2016

Recording files available
Session 12
Climate Data Analysis and Downscaling – Part 2
Location: Room 226/227 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Host: 23rd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
Chair: Andrew Poppick, University of Chicago
11:00 AM
12.1
Tropospheric Biennial Oscillation (TBO) Indistinguishable from White Noise
Malte F. Stuecker, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and A. Timmermann, J. Yoon, and F. F. Jin
11:15 AM
12.2
A Fast and Objective Multidimensional Kernel Density Estimation Method for Climate Data Analysis: fastKDE
Travis A. O'Brien, LBNL, Berkeley, CA; and K. Kashinath, N. R. Cavanaugh, W. D. Collins, and J. P. O'Brien

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 14 January 2016


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 14 January 2016

Recording files available
Session 13
Forecast Evaluation/Verification – Part 1
Location: Room 226/227 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Host: 23rd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
Chair: Caren Marzban, University of Washington
2:30 PM
13.4
Feature-Relative Forecast Evaluation
Michael E. Baldwin, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and B. Fehnel and K. L. Elmore
2:45 PM
13.5
MODE-TD: An Expansion of an Object-based Spatial Method
Randy Bullock, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and T. L. Jensen, T. L. Fowler, J. E. Halley Gotway, and B. G. Brown

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 14 January 2016


Coffee Break
Location: New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center

3:30 PM-5:00 PM: Thursday, 14 January 2016

Recording files available
Session 14
Forecast Evaluation/Verification – Part 2
Location: Room 226/227 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Host: 23rd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
Chair: Francis W. Zwiers, University of Victoria
3:45 PM
14.2
Forecasts of "normal"
Simon J. Mason, IRI, Palisades, NY; and C. A. T. Ferro and W. A. Landman
4:00 PM
14.3
Towards Improving the Framework for Probabilistic Forecast Evaluation
Hailiang Du, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL; and L. Smith, E. B. Suckling, E. L. Thompson, and T. Maynard
4:30 PM
14.5
Verification of High-resolution WRF-ARW Forecasts for Vermont Utility Applications
James P. Cipriani, IBM Research, Yorktown Heights,, NY; and L. Treinish, A. P. Praino, R. D'Arienzo, M. Coombs, and A. Stamp
4:45 PM
14.6
Evaluation of Convective Updraft Spacing in NU-WRF Simulations using Forward-simulation and Feature Analysis of KDP Columns
Marcus van Lier-Walqui, Columbia University & NASA/GISS, New York, NY; and A. M. Fridlind, A. S. Ackerman, X. Li, D. Wu, and W. K. Tao

5:00 PM-5:05 PM: Thursday, 14 January 2016


AMS 96th Annual Meeting Adjourns