Evaluation of Weather and Climate Forecasts: A 2016 perspective (Invited Presentation)

Forecast evaluation has been an important – and often controversial – topic in meteorology practically since the first weather forecasts were issued more than 100 years ago. While many verification methodologies have persisted through much of this history, the last few decades have seen a renaissance in the development of new approaches, as well as greater understanding of capabilities that have existed since the early days of forecasting. Over recent decades, not only has the variety of forecasts and observations expanded, but the needs for verification information have grown immensely – from early efforts to evaluate the performance of “simple” yes/no forecasts, to new methods for ensemble and spatial forecasts, and to development of approaches to evaluate forecasts in terms of users' applications of forecast information. This talk will consider the field of forecast evaluation from a historical perspective – to understand how the field of forecast verification has arrived at its current state – and will address existing issues and future directions.