Inclusion of New Ensemble Probabilistic Forecasts to NAEFS

The North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) is an operational multi-center ensemble forecast system jointly supported by the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC), the National Meteorological Service of Mexico (NMSM), and the US National Weather Service (NWS). Currently NAEFS provides downscaled probabilistic products 4 times per day, every 6-hour out to 16 days. The complete forecast set contains 10 surface variables that match the NDGD spatial resolution, i.e. 5km for CONUS and 6km for Alaska.

The generation of NAEFS probabilistic guidance are maintained and continuously enhanced through the developments of NAEFS statistical post-processing (SPP) system. Through NAEFS SPP study and development, future NAEFS products will provide high resolution (at NDGD grid) probabilistic guidance for CONUS (2.5km) and Alaska (3km). Meanwhile, in order to provide complete set of NDGD element, calibrated and downscaled probabilistic numerical guidance of cloud cover (globally and extend (CONUS) will be produced as well.