Session 3 Statistical Forecasting

Monday, 11 January 2016: 4:00 PM-5:30 PM
Room 226/227 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Host: 23rd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
Chair:
Eric Gilleland, NCAR, Research Applications Program, Boulder, CO

Papers:
4:00 PM
3.2
Predicting Seasonal Tornado Activity
James B. Elsner, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL
Recorded Presentation

Handout (1.8 MB)

3.1
Modeling Large-Scale Atmospheric Flow Using a Mixture of Local Linear Empirical Models

4:30 PM
3.3
Sensitivity of Spatial Structure of Forecasts on Model Parameters
Caren Marzban, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and N. Li, C. Jones, and S. Sandgathe
Recorded Presentation

Handout (1.1 MB)

4:45 PM
3.4
The Temporal and Probabilistic Relationship between Lightning Jump Occurrence and Radar-Derived Thunderstorm Intensification
Christopher J. Schultz, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and P. M. Bitzer, L. D. Carey, T. Chronis, and S. M. Stough
Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM
3.5
Convective Precipitation Estimation in Complex Terrain by using Cloud-to-ground Lightning
Carlos M. Minjarez-Sosa, Universidad de Sonora, Hermosillo, Mexico; and J. Waissman-Vilanova
Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM
3.6
Stochastic simulation of predictive space-time scenarios of wind speed using observations and physical model
Julie Bessac, ANL, Lemont, IL; and E. Constantinescu and M. Anitescu
Recorded Presentation

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