The goals of this study are:
1) Examine trends in MESH and azimuthal shear prior to and after lightning jump (or peak change in the total flash rate in non-jump thunderstorms) to provide a basic understanding of the temporal relationship between the radar derived intensity products and lightning jump occurrence.
2) Provide probabilistic guidance on hail size and the potential for severe hail and tornadoes based on lightning jump and total flash rate information for operational weather forecasting. MESH and azimuthal shear are used as objective proxies for severe weather potential in the development of the lightning-based probabilistic guidance.
A sample of 1500+ thunderstorms in which MESH, azimuthal shear and total lightning jump information are present is used to understand the temporal probabilistic relationships in both jump and non-jump thunderstorms.
The outcomes of this study will be useful in validating the future contribution of the lightning jump into the calculation of the probability of severe weather within the ProbSevere algorithm. Furthermore, the comparison between lightning jump and radar derived intensity metrics, which are used in National Weather Service warning forecast operations in the Multi-Radar Mulit-Sensor dataset, will provide more confidence in warning decisions because a conceptual model can be developed using temporal relationship between radar and lightning intensity metrics.