5.2 New Mesoscale Multimodel Ensemble Prediction System in Spain

Tuesday, 12 January 2016: 11:15 AM
Room 226/227 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Jose A. Garcia-Moya, Agencia Estatal de Meteorologia AEMET, Madrid, Spain; and A. Callado, P. Escriba, and C. Santos

The Spanish Meteorological Agency (AEMET) has a long tradition in developing and operating ensemble prediction systems based in the multimodel approach. Probabilistic forecasts are being used in AEMET to improve the information for severe weather events. It has been slowly introduced in the process to support Wind Energy Sector in Spain. The next generation of EPS will be set at convection permitting scale. The system, called gamma-SREPS (gSREPS) will run at 2.5 km resolution and it will use the multimodel approach as well. Two different versions of the European model Harmonie and another two of the WRF model (ARW and NMM) will be used with boundary conditions from 5 different global deterministic models (ECMWF, GFS, CMC, JMA and Arpege). The SPPT scheme will be use to model Physics errors while LETKF will be used to produce proper perturbations at the initial state. In this presentation we will show the main results that we have got during the development phase. They help us to decide the details of the operational implementation.
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