A High-Wind Prediction Model for Bordeaux, Wyoming

Southeast Wyoming is one of the windiest areas in the country during the months of October-March. The strong wind has significant impacts on commercial traffic especially along Interstates 80 and 25. One wind-prone location where road closures from blow-overs of high-profile vehicles frequently occur is the gap area of Bordeaux, Wyoming on Interstate 25 (66 miles north of Cheyenne). In this study, a high-wind statistical prediction model was developed for Bordeaux using logistic regression. North American Regional Reanalysis data over six wind seasons (2006-2012) were utilized to produce the following model predictors: 850-mb height gradient from Craig, Colorado to Casper, Wyoming, mean sea level pressure gradient from Arlington, Wyoming to Bordeaux, and 800-mb winds at Bordeaux. Forecasters at the National Weather Service in Cheyenne, Wyoming currently use a height gradient threshold as one of the primary considerations for issuing high wind warnings at Bordeaux. The statistical model improves Critical Success Index scores compared to the previous height gradient threshold. A real-time version of this model is being implemented with numerical model data to assist forecasters in the upcoming wind season.