Poster Session 1 Posters, 11-12 January

Monday, 11 January 2016: 2:30 PM-4:00 PM
Host: 23rd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences

Application of the Analog Ensemble Methodology to Land Surface Conditions
Laura Harding, Pennsylvania State University, State College, PA; and A. Fisher

Improvement of Anomaly Forecast for Extreme Weather Events
Hong Guan, Systems Research Group Inc./EMC/NCEP/NOAA, College Park, MD; and Y. Zhu, Y. Luo, and B. Cui

Quantification of Forecast Uncertainty Using Polynomial Chaos Expansion
Junjun Hu, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and S. Lakshmivarahan and J. Lewis

Impacts of Physics Parameterization and Data Assimilation on Synoptic Feature Modeling in Severe Weather Outbreaks
Erin A. Thead, Mississippi State University, Mississippi State, MS; and A. E. Mercer and J. L. Dyer

Handout (1.4 MB)

Probabilistic Ensemble Forecasting using Bayesian Model Averaging
Steven Beale, Amec Foster Wheeler Environment & Infrastructure, St. John's, NF, Canada; and T. Bullock

A Probabilistic Statistical Climatological Relationship between Precipitable Water Vapor and Precipitation for Near-Real Time Forecasting Applications
Jacola A. Roman, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and R. Knuteson, S. Hubbard, S. Ackerman, and H. Revercomb

Using FRiskNH Model to Determine Freeze in New Mexico Vineyards
Elizabeth Arleen Smith, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, NM

Modeling Range-Dependent Biases in Long-Term Radar-Based Precipitation Estimates
John Nielsen-Gammon, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and D. B. McRoberts

Handout (2.4 MB)

A High-Wind Prediction Model for Bordeaux, Wyoming
Zach Finch, NOAA/NWS, Cheyenne, WY; and D. T. Lindsey
Manuscript (701.4 kB)

Handout (731.9 kB)

Examining Intensity Trends During Extratropical Transition
Justin Alexander Baldizon Stark, CMMAP, Miami, FL

Benchmarking and Verification of Rapid Intensification/Weakening of Tropical Cyclone Forecasts by HWRF Model
Mrinal K. Biswas, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. H. Gotway, T. Fowler, and L. R. Bernardet

Statistical Drought Forecasting in South Central Oklahoma
Virginia G. Silvis, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. D. Hunter, R. McPherson, H. Lazrus, and M. B. Richman

Short Term Forecasting of Solar Irradiance using Data Analytics and Probabilistic Cloud Cover Forecasts
Peter J. Isaacson, The Aerospace Corporation, Chantilly, VA; and G. J. Bloy, E. B. Wendoloski, and C. N. Mutchler

Bayesian Analysis of Lightning Data Sets
Phillip M. Bitzer, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and J. Burchfield

- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates an Award Winner