Using FRiskNH Model to Determine Freeze in New Mexico Vineyards

FriskNH frost model was developed by Dr. Richard L Snyder of the University of California and Dr. J. Paulo de Melo-Abreu from Lisbon Technical University. This model was created in an excel spreadsheet, used to estimate the probabilities of freezing temperatures for spring and fall, based on historical minimum temperature data. Two tests of the FriskNH frost model designed for frost predictions were performed to determine accuracy.

First, A FriskNH model using ten (10) year data from 5 COOP stations in New Mexico from 2000 – 2010. 2011 frost was predicted through the model then statistically compared to actual data for 2011.

Second, A FriskNH model for a long term, one hundred and twenty (120) years of National Weather Service data at the New Mexico State University location. The input date end date was in 2010, and 2011 date to present will be analyzed through statistical comparisons

By using both analysis an accurate analysis of the prediction software can be made for practical use across many different fields that use frost prediction in the agriculture field throughout New Mexico.

The developed frost model was used for predicting frost events in the viticulture industry where freeze events could be devastating, not only for the plant, but financially. Through this model the hope is to provide an early warning for this industry to prevent product loss.