Session 4 Ensemble Forecasting – Part 1

Tuesday, 12 January 2016: 8:30 AM-9:45 AM
Room 226/227 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Host: 23rd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
Chair:
Michael Scheuerer, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO

Papers:
8:30 AM
4.1
Accounting for Model Uncertainties with Stochastic Forcing and the Impact on Ensemble Performance
Mozheng Wei, NRL, Stennis Space Center, MS; and P. Martin, P. Haley Jr., P. F. J. Lermusiaux, C. Barron, C. Rowley, and G. Jacobs
Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM
4.2
Inducing Tropical Cyclones to Undergo Brownian Motion
Daniel Hodyss, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. G. McLay, J. Moskaitis, and E. Serra
Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM
4.3
Investigating the Performance of Multi-Model Ensemble Prediction Systems
Elizabeth A. Satterfield, NRL, Monterey, CA; and W. F. Campbell and C. H. Bishop
Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM
4.4
Use of Path Clustering of a Multi-model Ensemble to Diagnose Causes of Differences in the Motion of Hurricane Sandy
Jenni L. Evans, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and A. Kowaleski
Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM
4.5
Gridded Probabilistic Forecasts of Weather Parameters with an Analog Ensemble
Simone Sperati, Ricerca Sistema Energetico, Milan, Italy; and S. Alessandrini, L. Delle Monache, G. Cervone, L. Harding, and S. E. Haupt
Recorded Presentation

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