From Katrina to Sandy: Progress, Challenges, and Way Forward

Hurricane Katrina (2005) is most costly storm in US history (1,833 deaths and >$108 Billion damages). Superstorm Sandy (2012) is the 2nd most costly storm (286 deaths and >$60 Billion damages). One of the main lessons learned is that society needs for a new paradigm shift from weather to explicit impact forecasting (NRC report 2012: When Weather Matters). Much progress has been made in observing and modeling since Katrina. New capability of high-resolution, fully coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean-land model for wind/rain/storm surge/flooding forecasts and verification has been developed and tested in recent years. This talk provides a review on what we have learn from Hurricane Katrina, include the flights into Katrina during the RAINEX field campaign in 2005 and progress make in hurricane observation and modeling, and challenges including hurricane intensity and impact forecasts and transition from research to operations. The way forward will be discussed:

• Explicit impact forecasts are a MUST to meet societal need • Need for coupled air-sea-land observations to evaluate/verify coupled model and surge model forecasts • Ensemble coupled model prediction can provide probabilistic impact forecasts and quantitative uncertainty estimates • Betters ways to make the transition from research to operation • Applications in coastal planning/management, emergency management, risk assessment in a changing global climate (e.g., sea level rise)