631 Estimation of Regional Climate Changes in European and Mediterranean Subregions Using Different RCP Scenarios

Wednesday, 13 January 2016
Hall D/E ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Rita Pongrácz, Eötvös Loránd University, Budapest, Hungary; and J. Bartholy, I. Pieczka, and K. Szabóné André
Manuscript (3.0 MB)

In the framework of the Med-CORDEX international initiative of the CORDEX program within the WCRP (World Climate Research Program), our research group is contributing with RegCM4.3 experiments at 50 km horizontal resolution using the mosaic-type subgridding option in order to take into account subgrid processes. For this purpose, we used ERA-Interim data (1981-2010) and HadGEM2 global model outputs (1951-2005, 2006-2100) as initial and lateral boundary conditions (ICBC) for the entire MED-44 CORDEX area covering the extended Mediterranean region of Europe (30°-50°N, 10°W-45°E). On the basis of 50 km RegCM runs we aim to provide detailed regional scale climate projection results for the Carpathian Region and its vicinity. For this purpose, further downscaling is necessary using 10 km as horizontal resolution for a smaller domain covering Central Europe with special focus on the Carpathian Region. These experiments will be the basis of the Hungarian national climate and adaptation strategies for detailed regional scale analysis and specific impact studies.

The applied regional climate model RegCM is a 3-dimensional, sigma-coordinate, primitive equation model, originally developed by Giorgi et al. Currently, it is available from the ICTP (Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics).

After completing the historical experiments and validation, future scenarios for the 21st century are run taking into account RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, which are based on the radiative forcing change by 2100. This paper compares the estimated temperature and precipitation changes for the following 10 subregions of the MED-44 CORDEX area: Alps, Appennin Peninsula, Balkan Region, Middle European Plain, Iberian Peninsula, Carpathian Mountains, Carpathian Basin, East European Plain, Asia Minor, Western Europe. Besides the mean annual, seasonal and monthly projected changes, the potential shifts of the distributions are also analyzed.

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