28th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Program Chairs: Kristen Averyt , CIRES/Univ. of Colorado ; Daniel J. Vimont , University of Wisconsin - Madison ; Ben P. Kirtman , Univ. of Miami/RSMAS

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Sunday, 10 January 2016

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7:30 AM-9:00 AM: Sunday, 10 January 2016


Registration for Short Courses and Conference for Early Career Professionals
Location: Hall D pre-function ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

8:30 AM-5:30 PM: Sunday, 10 January 2016


Registration for Student Conference and Short Courses
Location: Hall D pre-function ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

9:00 AM-6:00 PM: Sunday, 10 January 2016


Registration Open for Annual Meeting
Location: Hall D pre-function ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

Monday, 11 January 2016

Sunday | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | top

9:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 11 January 2016

Recording files available
Plenary Session 1
2016 Presidential Forum: Serving Society in Times of Crisis: Past, Present and Future
Location: La Nouvelle B-C ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Moderator: Maureen McCann, News 13
Panelists: Admiral Thad Allen, United States Coast Guard (ret), Executive Vice President Booz Allen Hamilton; Kerry Emanuel, MIT; Shirley Laska, University of New Orleans; Max Mayfield, WPLG-TV/Former NOAA/National Hurricane Center Director
9:00 AM
Presidential Forum on Serving Society in Times of Crisis: Past, Present and Future
Recorded Presentation

9:05 AM
Opening Remarks (by AMS President Alexander E. “Sandy” MacDonald)

9:15 AM
Introduction of Moderator McCann (MacDonald)

9:16 AM
Introduction of Speakers (McCann)

9:20 AM
Opening Remarks of Speakers

10:05 AM
Q&A

10:30 AM
Concluding Remarks

10:30 AM-11:00 AM: Monday, 11 January 2016


Coffee Break
Location: La Nouvelle Foyer ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 11 January 2016

Recording files available
Joint Session 1
Drought Analysis and Prediction, Part I
Location: Room 240/241 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 30th Conference on Hydrology; and the 28th Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
Cochairs: Joshua Roundy, University of Kansas; Eric F. Wood, Princeton University
11:00 AM
J1.1
Seasonal Scale Water Deficit Forecasting in East Africa and the Middle East Region Using the NMME Models Forecasts
Shraddhanand Shukla, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA; and C. C. Funk, B. F. Zaitchik, B. Narapusetty, K. R. Arsenault, and C. Peters-Lidard

11:15 AM
J1.2
Identifying the drivers of drought onset and cessation
Danielle C. Verdon-Kidd, University of Newcastle, Callaghan, NSW, Australia; and B. R. Scanlon, T. Ren, and D. N. Fernando
Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM
J1.3
Can large scale sea ice cover changes affect precipitation patterns over California?
Ivana Cvijanovic, LLNL, Livermore, CA; and C. Bonfils, D. D. Lucas, B. D. Santer, and J. C. H. Chiang
Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM
J1.4
The Role of Stationary Rossby Waves in the Subseasonal Development of Drought over North America and Northern Eurasia
Hailan Wang, NASA, Hampton, VA; and S. D. Schubert and R. D. Koster
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Session 1
Hot Topics in Climate
Location: La Nouvelle A ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Host: 28th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Daniel J. Vimont, University of Wisconsin - Madison
11:00 AM
1.1
The Obama–Xi Accord: A Need for Further Action
Ross J. Salawitch, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and W. Tribett, A. Hope, and T. Canty
Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM
1.2
The U.S. and Global Climate Conditions of 2015 in Historical Perspective
Jake Crouch, NOAA/NESDIS/National Centers for Environmental Information, Asheville, NC; and D. S. Arndt, K. Gleason, R. R. Heim Jr., A. Sanchez-Lugo, and J. Blunden
Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM
1.3
How Long Could the Current Hiatus in Global Warming Last?
Thomas R. Knutson, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and R. Zhang and L. W. Horowitz
Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM
1.4
Inevitable End-Of-Century Loss of Spring Snowpack over California's Sierra Nevada
Fengpeng Sun, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and A. Hall, N. E. Berg, D. B. Walton, and M. Schwartz
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Themed Joint Session 2
Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Quantifying Uncertainties in Measurements and Models and Resultant Climate Impacts I
Location: Room 356 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 18th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 28th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 19th Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA; and the 22nd Conference on Applied Climatology )
Cochairs: Abhishek Chatterjee, USRA; A. Scott Denning, Colorado State University
11:00 AM
TJ2.1
Developing a Carbon Observing System
Berrien Moore III, National Weather Center/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK
Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM
TJ2.2
Long Term Monitoring of Greenhouse Gases at NOAA—a Fifty-plus Year Record (Invited Presentation)
James H. Butler, NOAA, Boulder, CO
Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM
TJ2.3
Preliminary Results from the First Year of Operations of the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) (Invited Presentation)
David Crisp, JPL, Pasadena, CA
Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM
TJ2.4
Empirically Constrained Estimates of Alaskan Regional Net Ecosystem Exchange of CO2, 2012-2014
Jakob Lindaas, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA; and R. Commane, J. Benmergui, K. Luus, R. Y. W. Chang, C. E. Miller, J. M. Henderson, A. Karion, C. Sweeney, E. S. Euskirchen, D. Zona, W. C. Oechel, M. Ueyama, H. Iwata, Y. Harazono, J. C. Lin, B. C. Daube, J. V. Pittman, and S. C. Wofsy
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Themed Joint Session 3
High Impact Weather: Analysis, Prediction, and Interaction with Climate Changes: Part 1
Location: Room 238/239 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 28th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 22nd Conference on Applied Climatology; and the Fourth AMS Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA) )
Chair: Dr. Richard Clark, Millersville Univ.
11:00 AM
TJ3.1
The Multi-dimensional Nature of the Impact of Severe Heat Waves
Michael F. Wehner, LBNL, Berkeley, CA; and D. Stone and F. Castillo
Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM
TJ3.2
Towards a Better Prediction and Mitigation of Heat Waves in Urban India
Violeta Toma, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and P. Webster, M. T. Jelinek, J. Belanger, and J. A. Curry
Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM
TJ3.4
The May 2015 Texas Floods vs. Strengthened El Niño Teleconnection
Shih-Yu (Simon) Wang, Utah State University, Logan, UT; and W. R. Huang, H. H. Hsu, and R. Gillies
Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM
TJ3.4
Atmospherical Environment of Extreme Wet and Dry Spells in West Africa
Christophe Lavaysse, European Commission, Ispra, Italy; and J. Vogt, J. Thielen, and P. Barbosa
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Themed Joint Session 4
Urban Studies that Support the Understanding of Urban Growth and Climate Variability Impacts on Health, Adaptation, and Resilience—Part I
Location: Room 228/229 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the Seventh Conference on Environment and Health; the 28th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 22nd Conference on Applied Climatology; and the Fourth Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation: Enhancing Our Nation’s Readiness, Responsiveness, and Resilience to High Impact Weather Events )
Speaker: Karen DeSalvo, National Coordinator for Health Information Technology (ONC), Acting Assistant Secretary for Health
Chair: John Balbus, National Institute of Health
11:00 AM
Panel

11:15 AM
Themed Joint Session 4 - Urban Studies that Support the Understanding of Urban Growth and Climate Variability Impacts on Health, Adaptation, and Resilience—Part I
Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM
Urban Health, Resiliency, and Adaptation: What We Learned from Katrina (Invited Presentation)

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Monday, 11 January 2016


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Monday, 11 January 2016

Recording files available
Lecture 1
Walter Orr Roberts Lecture
Location: La Nouvelle A ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
1:30 PM
L1.1
Understanding the Earth System through Numerical Modeling: Crossing the Disciplinary Frontiers (Invited Presentation)
V. Ramaswamy, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
2
Urban Studies that Support the Understanding of Urban Growth and Climate Variability Impacts on Health, Adaptation, and Resilience—Part II
Location: Room 228/229 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the Seventh Conference on Environment and Health; the 28th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 22nd Conference on Applied Climatology; and the Fourth Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation: Enhancing Our Nation’s Readiness, Responsiveness, and Resilience to High Impact Weather Events )
Moderator: Jennifer Vanos, Texas Tech University
Panelists: Kristie L. Ebi, ClimAdapt, LLC; Roger Pulwarty, NOAA; John Balbus, National Institute of Health
1:30 PM
Health and Cascading Systems Failure -- John Balbus
Recorded Presentation

1:30 PM
Kris Ebi
Recorded Presentation

1:30 PM
Roger Pulwarty
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Joint Session 3
Drought Analysis and Prediction, Part II
Location: Room 240/241 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 30th Conference on Hydrology; and the 28th Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
Cochairs: Joshua Roundy, University of Kansas; Eric F. Wood, Princeton University
1:30 PM
J3.1
Exploring Tools for Quantifying and Ameliorating Meteorological Drought Deficits
Michael C. Kruk, ERT, Inc., Asheville, NC; and R. R. Heim Jr., K. Werner, and R. S. Vose
Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM
J3.2
Assessing the evolution of soil moisture and vegetation conditions during the 2012 United States flash drought
Jason A. Otkin, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI; and M. C. Anderson and C. Hain
Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM
J3.3
An investigation of soil moisture extremes over the 2012 drought
Ronald D. Leeper, Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites-North Carolina (CICS-NC), North Carolina State University, Asheville, NC; and J. E. Bell and M. Palecki
Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM
J3.4
EDDI examines the current California drought: early warning and monitoring of agricultural and hydrologic drought with the new Evaporative Demand Drought Index
Michael Hobbins, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and D. McEvoy, J. Huntington, A. Wood, C. Morton, and J. Verdin
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Themed Joint Session 5
Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Quantifying Uncertainties in Measurements and Models and Resultant Climate Impacts II
Location: Room 356 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 18th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 28th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 19th Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA; and the 22nd Conference on Applied Climatology )
Cochairs: A. Scott Denning, Colorado State University; Sean Crowell, University of Oklahoma
1:30 PM
TJ5.1
The Uncertainty of Gridded CO2 Emissions Data
Eric Marland, Appalachian State University, Boone, NC; and S. Hogue, R. J. Andres, and G. Marland
Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM
TJ5.2
Understanding Urban Carbon Emissions (Invited Presentation)
Riley Duren, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and C. Miller, K. Gurney, E. Kort, S. Feng, P. Rao, R. Keeling, R. Weiss, K. R. Verhulst, F. Hopkins, J. Miller, S. Newman, M. L. Fischer, S. Lehman, M. Falk, and B. Croes

2:00 PM
TJ5.3
Evaluating Ambient Concentrations and Local Emissions of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) in the San Francisco Bay Area of California Using a Comprehensive Fixed-site and Mobile Monitoring Network
Abhinav Guha, Bay Area Air Quality Management District, San Francisco, CA; and J. Bower, P. Martien, S. Randall, A. Young, H. Hilken, and E. Stevenson
Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM
TJ5.4
The Four Corners Methane Hotspot: Implications for Emission Inventories (Invited Presentation)
Mavendra Dubey, LANL, Los Alamos, NM; and K. R. Costigan, R. Lindenmaier, C. Frankenberg, E. Kort, A. J. Turner, and D. J. Jacob
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Themed Joint Session 6
High Impact Weather: Analysis, Prediction, and Interaction with Climate Changes: Part 2
Location: Room 238/239 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 28th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 22nd Conference on Applied Climatology; and the Fourth AMS Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA) )
Chair: Richard Clark, Millersville University
TJ6.1
Decreasing Frequency of Monsoon Depressions in the 21st Century

1:45 PM
TJ6.2
Reduced Weather Variability Indicated by Decreases in Atmospheric Energy Spectra
Nicholas R. Cavanaugh, LBNL, Berkeley, CA; and T. A. O'Brien and W. D. Collins
Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM
TJ6.3
Seasonal Predictability of Severe Thunderstorms based on ENSO: Methodology and Evaluation of the 2015 forecast
John T. Allen, Columbia University/International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Palisades, NY; and M. K. Tippett and A. H. Sobel
Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM
TJ6.4
An Investigation of Spatial Redistribution of USA Tornado Activity and Its Relationship to Climate Change
Ernest Agee, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and S. Childs
Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Monday, 11 January 2016


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Hall D/E ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

Joint Poster Session 1
Drought Analysis and Prediction Posters
Hosts: (Joint between the 30th Conference on Hydrology; and the 28th Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
Cochairs: Joshua Roundy, University of Kansas; Eric F. Wood, Princeton University
80
Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Monitor Drought Severity in Texas for Wildfire Mitigation Support
Megan Elizabeth Buzanowicz, NASA/DEVELOP, Hampton, VA; and L. Lykens, Z. Richards, and K. Ross

81
A correlation analysis comparing satellite-based drought indicators with yields of major Brazilian crops

82
Critical Aspects of the Coastal Drought Index: Length of Salinity Data Record and Ecological Response Data
Paul Conrads, USGS, Columbia, SC; and D. L. Tufford and L. S. Darby

83
Use of Land Surface and Routing Models with Satellite Altimetry to Evaluate Risks to Hydropower during Drought
Jeanne M. Roningen, US Army Corps of Engineers, Hanover, NH; and J. B. Eylander

84
Probabilistic U.S. Drought Monitor Predictions Using Anomalies in Precipitation, Soil Moisture, and Evapotranspiration
David J. Lorenz, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and J. A. Otkin, M. Svoboda, C. Hain, and M. C. Anderson

85
Competitive influences on droughts: present and future
Céline Bonfils, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA; and G. Anderson, B. Santer, B. Cook, T. Phillips, and I. Cvijanovic

86
Role of Calibration on Ensemble Streamflow Prediction for Seasonal Agricultural Drought Forecasts
Daniel Anthony Rico, Univ. of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and K. Smith, J. Chacon, G. Corzo, and F. Munoz-Arriola

87
Assessing the Association of Drought to Wildfire in California Using a Regional Climate Model Ensemble
Debasish PaiMazumder, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and P. Jain, J. M. Done, and M. Flannigan

88
Development of an Objective High Spatial Resolution Soil Moisture Index
Bradley T. Zavodsky, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and J. L. Case and K. D. White

Handout (1.2 MB)


Themed Joint Poster Session 1
Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Quantifying Uncertainties in Measurements and Models and Resultant Climate Impacts Posters
Location: Hall D/E ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 18th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 28th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 19th Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA; and the 22nd Conference on Applied Climatology )
Cochairs: Abhishek Chatterjee, USRA; A. Scott Denning, Colorado State University; Sean Crowell, University of Oklahoma
283
Implementing Environmental Corrections to Increase the Accuracy of a Low-Cost CO2 Sensor
Cory R. Martin, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and N. Zeng, X. Ren, R. R. Dickerson, B. Turpie, K. Prasad, K. Weber, J. Whetstone, and S. Ghosh

284
A Laser Absorption Spectrometry System, for Monitoring the Spatial Distribution of CO2 over Paris, France
Jeremy T. Dobler, Harris Corp., Fort Wayne, IN; and T. S. Zaccheo, M. Braun, T. G. Pernini, P. Ciais, and G. Broquet

Handout (3.4 MB)

285
Real-Time Monitoring and Mapping of CO2 Concentrations Over Extended Urban Area: Mapping the Two-Dimensional Distribution of CO2 over Paris, France
T. Scott Zaccheo, AER, Lexington, MA; and T. G. Pernini, J. T. Dobler, C. Botos, and N. Blume

286
Toward Reduced Transport Errors in a High Resolution Urban CO2 Inversion System
Aijun Deng, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and T. Lauvaux, B. Gaudet, N. Miles, K. Davis, M. Hardesty, K. Gurney, and A. Brewer
Manuscript (481.2 kB)

Handout (335.1 kB)

287
An Airborne Campaign to Quantify and Reduce Atmospheric Transport Errors in Regional Estimates of Greenhouse Gas Fluxes
Kenneth J. Davis, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and T. Lauvaux and T. ACT America Science Team

288
The Need for an Integrated Global Greenhouse Gas Information System (IG3IS)
Diane M. Stanitski, NOAA ESRL Global Monitoring Division, Boulder, CO; and J. H. Butler, P. L. DeCola, O. A. Tarasova, and D. E. Terblanche

289
Development and Implementation of a Carbon Data Assimilation System for the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) Mission
Abhishek Chatterjee, USRA, Greenbelt, MD; and B. Weir, L. Ott, S. R. Kawa, and S. Pawson

291
The GeoCARB Mission
Sean Crowell, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and B. Moore and P. Rayner

290
OCO-2 Observations of Africa Fire CO2 Emissions

292
Comparision of GOSAT XCO2 with CO2 Column from PCTM Modeling
Yuping Liu, NASA, Greenbelt, MD; and S. R. Kawa and G. J. Collatz

293
Evaluating Sensitivity of Simulated Atmospheric CO2 to Varied Transport Model Versus Prior Surface Flux
Caroline Palmer Normile, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and K. Davis, T. Lauvaux, L. Diaz, N. Miles, and S. Richardson

294
Understanding and Modeling Tropical Grasslands Using Remotely Sensed Fluorescence and Soil Moisture
Dakota C. Smith, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and A. S. Denning and I. Baker

295
Global Multiscale Modeling of Coupled Carbon-Climate Processes
A. Scott Denning, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and I. Baker, M. Phillips, M. Branson, and D. Randall

296
Mapping the Spatial Distribution of Methane in Houston, Texas
Beata Czader, Rice University, Houston, TX; and D. Cohan, N. Sanchez, F. Tittel, and R. Griffin

297
Identification of Methane Emission Sources in the Baltimore-Washington Metropolitan Area
Jonathan R. Hansford, University of Maryland, College Park, Ellicott City, MD; and D. Ahn, R. J. Salawitch, X. Ren, M. Cohen, and R. R. Dickerson

Handout (3.0 MB)

298
Identification of Carbon Dioxide Emission Sources in Baltimore/Washington Metropolitan Area
Doyeon Ahn, University of Maryland, College Park, College Park, MD; and J. R. Hansford, R. J. Salawitch, X. Ren, M. Cohen, and R. R. Dickerson

299
Ensemble Air Quality Prediction at Convection-Resolving Resolutions for the Continental United States
Xiao-Ming Hu, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue, F. Kong, and B. Moore

300
Carbon Sequestration Status of Sunaulo Ghaympe Danda Community Forest, Mid Kathmandu Valley, Nepal
Pabitra Dahal, Goldengate International College, Bhaktapur, Nepal
Manuscript (430.0 kB)

Handout (309.8 kB)


Poster Session 1
Monday/Tuesday Poster Session
Host: 28th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
121
Analyses of Heat Index and Heat Waves over the Caribbean
Nazario D. Ramirez-Beltran, University of Puerto Rico, Mayaguez, PR; and J. E. Gonzalez, J. M. Castro, C. M. Salazar, and M. E. Angeles

Handout (1.1 MB)

122
Using a High-Resolution Global Climate Model to Simulate Extreme Extratropical Cyclones
Arielle J. Catalano, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ; and A. J. Broccoli and S. Kapnick

123
Generating Climate Extremes Indices (CLIMDEX) by Using Semi-Parametric Quantile Regression Models
Yang Li, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China; and C. Yang

Handout (664.7 kB)

124
Projected Sea Ice-Free Conditions in Arctic Waters
Frederic B. Laliberte, EC, Toronto, ON, Canada; and S. Howell and P. J. Kushner

125
A Case Study of Large Snowfall Event Variability in the Upper Colorado River Basin
Johnathan P. Kirk, Kent State University, Kent, OH

126
A Multi-step Approach for Downscaling Daily Precipitation Extremes from Historical Analogs
Christopher M. Castellano, Northeast Regional Climate Center, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY; and A. T. DeGaetano

Carbon Sequestration Trend of Sunaulo Ghaympe Danda Community Forest, Kathmandu, Nepal
Manuscript (430.7 kB)

127
Downscaled Projections of Extreme Precipitation in New York State
Christopher M. Castellano, Northeast Regional Climate Center, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY; and A. T. DeGaetano

128
Orographic Impact on Precipitation Amount in the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, New Hampshire
Matthew D. Cann, Plymouth State University, Plymouth, NH; and E. P. Kelsey

129
Drought and Pluvial Dipole Events within the Great Plains of the United States
Katarina Christian, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY; and J. Christian and J. B. Basara

131
A Dynamical Downscaling Study in the Great Lakes Region Using the WRF/Lake Model: Historical Simulation and Future Projection
Chuliang Xiao, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and B. M. Lofgren

130
Simulated Precipitation Extremes Associated with Tropical Cyclones in a Warmer Climate from Very High Resolution Climate Models

133
Linkages Between Arctic Summer Circulation Regimes and Regional Sea Ice Anomalies: Drivers of Retreat?
Mark C. Serreze, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and A. H. Lynch, J. Stroeve, E. N. Cassano, and A. Crawford

134
Determination of Roughness Length at Ny-Alesund-Svalbard Using near Neutral Conditions
Armando Pelliccioni, Istituto Nazionale Assicurazione contro gli Infortuni sul Lavoro, Monteporzio Catone, Italy; and F. Tampieri, A. P. Viola, and M. Mazzola
Manuscript (217.7 kB)

Climate Variability and Change over the Arid and Semi-Arid lands of Kenya

135
Extreme Wet and Dry Events over Southeast Brazil and Associated Atmospheric Circulation Patterns
Silvia Regina Santos da Silva, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and V. Kousky

132
Variability, Predictability, and Risk in the Alaskan Arctic Waters

136
Recent Performances of the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model in Southern California
Ivory J. Small, NOAA/NWS, San Diego, CA

Handout (476.6 kB)

137
Synoptic and Local Influences on a Summertime, Long-Lived, Mixed-Phase Cloud Event Over Summit, Greenland: A Modeling Perspective
Mallory Paige Row, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and S. M. Cavallo and D. D. Turner

138
Mid-Latitude Weather and Climate Extremes Induced by Sea-Ice Loss over the Baffin and Labrador Seas
Cory Francis Baggett, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and S. Lee

139
Reproducibility of Atmospheric Conditions Around Japan by CMIP5 for the Assessment of Future Change in Extreme Precipitation with Statistical Downscaling Approach
Shunya Wakamatsu, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, Japan; and K. Ishihara

140
Refinement of Horizontal Resolution in Dynamical Downscaling of Climate Information Using WRF: Costs, Benefits, and Lessons Learned
O. Russell Bullock Jr., EPA, Research Triangle Park, NC; and E. Salmon

141
Characterizing the December 2013 extreme rainfall event over the Eastern Caribbean
Leonard A. Nurse, University of The West Indies, Bridgetown, Barbados; and J. L. Charlery, L. Pologne, and A. R. T. Joyette

Handout (2.7 MB)

142
Do Thermodynamics Constrain How the Arctic Atmospheric Heat Engine Can Change in a Warming Climate?
Frederic B. Laliberte, EC, Toronto, ON, Canada; and J. D. Zika and S. Howell

143
Projected Storm Track Changes in CMIP5 Model Simulations
Albert M. W. Yau, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY; and K. Paul, J. Dennis, and E. K. M. Chang

145
Evolution of Extreme Precipitation: A Satellite Based Investigation
Ryan Louis Gonzalez, Center for Multiscale Modeling of Atmospheric Processes, Fort Collins, CO; and C. Kummerow and J. Bytheway

146
Anthropogenic Forcing on the Hadley Circulation in CMIP5 simulations
Yongyun Hu, Peking University, Beijing, China; and L. Tao and J. Liu

Handout (947.3 kB)

147
Principal Roles of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation in Variations of Circulation and Precipitation in North America
Qi Hu, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and M. Veres

148
Trends in Extreme Geopotential Heights over North America: Another Perspective to Investigate Extreme Weather Events
Fuyao Wang, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and S. Vavrus

144
Are the American Monsoons Becoming Shorter?: Evaluation of CMIP5 Simulations and Projections

149
The Human Influence on Global Warming
Austin Hope, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and T. Canty, N. Mascioli, and R. J. Salawitch

150
The Downstream Response to Explosive Extratropical Cyclone Intensification over the North Pacific
Kevin M. Lupo, Plymouth State University, Plymouth, NH; and J. Cordeira and E. G. Hoffman

151
Jet Stream Variability: Creating a Jet Index
Jeffrey M. Schmidt, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and G. S. Young, D. W. Titley, S. D. Goldberger, and S. K. Miller

152
Estimating Impacts of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Using an Index of Damage Potential
Debasish PaiMazumder, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. M. Done, E. Towler, and C. Kishtawal

154
Analysis of Extreme Reversals in Monthly, Seasonal, and Annual Precipitation Anomalies across the United States, 1895–2014
Michael L. Marston Jr., Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA; and A. W. Ellis

155
Large Precipitation Events in Northern Vermont Compared to Global Temperature Anomalies and Carbon Dioxide Concentrations
Melissa Eleanor Segall, Lyndon State College, Lyndonville, VT; and T. Bacchus

153
Recurring Cold Winters over the Gulf Stream and Implications for Northern Hemisphere Ocean Circulation

Future Trends in Extreme Temperatures over the Western U.S.: The Influence of Terrain and Coastlines

4:00 PM-5:00 PM: Monday, 11 January 2016

Recording files available
Session 2
US CLIVAR Session on Ocean Fingerprints of Decadal-to-Centennial Natural Variability and Anthropogenic Change
Location: La Nouvelle A ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Host: 28th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: David Halpern, JPL; Antonietta Capotondi, University of Colorado; Renellys Christine Perez, NOAA/AOML; Arthur J. Miller, SIO/Univ. Of California
4:00 PM
2.1
Indian and Pacific heat shift temporarily hides Earth's warming
Veronica Nieves, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and J. Willis and W. C. Patzert

4:15 PM
2.2
Decadal-to-Centennial Variations of Tropical Ocean Currents Over the Next 400 Years Under Increasing Greenhouse Gas Emissions
David Halpern, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and R. Bleck, L. Nazarenko, G. Schmidt, and N. Tausnev
Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM
2.3
Is ENSO Really Changing?
Antonietta Capotondi, CIRES, Univ. of Colorado and Physical Sciences Division, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and P. D. Sardeshmukh
Recorded Presentation

2.4
Circulation and Water Mass Variability in the South Atlantic

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Monday, 11 January 2016

Recording files available
Themed Joint Session 8
High Impact Weather: Analysis, Prediction, and Interaction with Climate Changes: Part 3
Location: Room 238/239 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 28th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 22nd Conference on Applied Climatology; and the Fourth AMS Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA) )
Chair: Richard D. Clark, Millersville University
4:00 PM
TJ8.1
Climate Change Effects on Wildland Fire Risk in the Northeastern United States and Great Lakes Region
Gaige Hunter Kerr, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD; and A. T. DeGaetano
Recorded Presentation

Handout (7.9 MB)

4:15 PM
TJ8.2
Examination of Land-falling Tropical Cyclones in an IPCC Extreme Climate Scenario
Justin G. McLay, NRL, Monterey, CA; and E. A. Hendricks and J. R. Moskaitis
Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM
TJ8.3
Observed and Projected Decrease in Extratropical Cyclone Activity in Northern Hemisphere Summer and Its Impacts on Extreme Weather
Edmund K. M. Chang, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY; and C. G. Ma
Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM
TJ8.4
Locations and Trends in US Midwest Urban-induced Heavy Rain Events
David A. R. Kristovich, ISWS/Prairie Research Institute/University of Illinois, Champaign, IL; and L. Bard and L. Stoecker
Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM
TJ8.5
Did Similar Sea Surface Temperature Patterns Force the Recent Dry Long Rains and Wet Short Rains Over East Africa?
Andrew Hoell, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and C. C. Funk, B. Lyon, M. Hoerling, and B. Liebmann
Recorded Presentation

TJ8.6
Variability of extremes in the 21st century as deduced from AIRS data

Recording files available
Themed Joint Session 9
Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Quantifying Uncertainties in Measurements and Models and Resultant Climate Impacts III
Location: Room 356 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 18th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 28th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 19th Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA; and the 22nd Conference on Applied Climatology )
Cochairs: Abhishek Chatterjee, USRA; Sean Crowell, University of Oklahoma
4:00 PM
TJ9.1
Evaluation of a Computationally-Efficient CH4-CO-OH (ECCOH) Module with Climate-Sensitive Wetland CH4 Emissions Within the GEOS-5 Climate Model
James S. Wang, USRA, Greenbelt, MD; and B. Duncan, Y. F. Elshorbany, and S. A. Strode
Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM
TJ9.2
Understanding the Global Methane Budget: The Present and Future View Using Top-Down Approaches
Lori Bruhwiler, NOAA, Boulder, CO
Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM
TJ9.3
Evaluating the Influence of Stratospheric Variability on Methane Total Columns
Katherine M. Saad, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and P. O. Wennberg

4:45 PM
TJ9.4
Tracer-based Estimates of Transport Uncertainty from NASA's GEOS-5 AGCM: Implications for Inversion Flux Estimates (Invited Presentation)
Lesley Ott, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and A. Chatterjee and B. Weir
Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM
TJ9.5
Quantification of Transport Errors and their Impact in CO2 Mixing Ratios with a WRF-Chem Physics-based Ensemble
Liza Ivelisse Diaz-Isaac, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and T. Lauvaux and K. Davis

5:15 PM
TJ9.6
Evaluating Local-scale CO2 Meteorological Model Transport Uncertainty for the INFLUX Urban Campaign through the Use of Realistic Large Eddy Simulation
Brian Gaudet, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and T. Lauvaux, A. Deng, K. Davis, and D. Sarmiento
Recorded Presentation

5:30 PM-7:30 PM: Monday, 11 January 2016


Exhibits Opening Reception, Ribbon Cutting, and Corporate Recognition
Location: Hall D/E ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

Tuesday, 12 January 2016

Sunday | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | top

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Tuesday, 12 January 2016

Recording files available
Session 3
Arctic Circulation and Sea-Ice Variability and Trends
Location: La Nouvelle C ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Host: 28th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: R. Saravanan, Texas A&M University
8:30 AM
3.1
Contrasting the Impact of Arctic and Antarctic Stratospheric Sudden Warmings
Jeffrey Fitzgerald Sr., University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and T. Reichler
Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM
3.2
Covariance Between Atmospheric State Regimes, Arctic Low Clouds, and Sea Ice in Observations and Climate Models
Patrick C. Taylor, NASA, Hampton, VA; and S. Kato, K. M. Xu, and M. Cai
Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM
3.3
Influences of Atmospheric Eddies on the Initial Melt of Arctic Sea Ice: The Role of Cloud Fraction Anomalies and Poleward Heat Transport by High- and Low-Frequency Atmospheric Eddies
Bradley M. Hegyi, NASA, Hampton, VA; and Y. Deng and P. C. Taylor
Recorded Presentation

3.4
Extreme Moisture Transport into the Arctic and Its Effect on Sea-Ice Concentration

9:30 AM
3.5
The Impact of Multidecadal NAO Variations on Atlantic Ocean Heat Transport and Rapid Changes in Arctic Sea Ice in the 20th and Early 21st Centuries
Thomas L. Delworth, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and F. Zeng
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Themed Joint Session 10
High Impact Weather: Analysis, Prediction, and Interaction with Climate Changes: Part 4
Location: La Nouvelle A ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 28th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 22nd Conference on Applied Climatology; and the Fourth AMS Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA) )
Chair: Richard Clark, Millersville University
8:30 AM
TJ10.1
The Self-Regulated Induction of United States Cold Air Outbreaks by the North Atlantic Oscillation
Robert X. Black, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and R. M. Westby

8:45 AM
TJ10.2
Numerical Simulation of a Monsoonal Link to the Rapid Arctic Ice Melt
T. N. Krihsnamurti, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and V. Kumar
Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM
TJ10.3
Large-Scale Antecedent Conditions Associated with 2014–2015 Winter Onset over North America and their Impact on Predictability
Lance F. Bosart, University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and P. P. Papin, A. M. Bentley, and B. J. Moore
Recorded Presentation

Handout (16.9 MB)

9:15 AM
TJ10.4
Towards Improved Understanding of Extreme Snow Melt Runoff Events: a Case Study of the Chesapeake Basin
Gina Henderson, U.S. Naval Academy, Annapolis, MD; and K. M. Masters, D. J. Leathers, D. A. Robinson, and T. L. Mote
Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM
TJ10.5
Impacts of Storm Track Variations on Cold Season Extreme Weather Events over the Continental United States
Chen-Geng Ma, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY; and E. K. M. Chang
Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM-11:00 AM: Tuesday, 12 January 2016


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Hall D/E ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 12 January 2016

Recording files available
Session 4A
Distinguishing Among Climate Variability, Anthropogenic Forcing, and Evolution of Current Climate State: Contributions of US CLIVAR Science
Location: La Nouvelle C ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Host: 28th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Gregg M. Garfin, University of Arizona; Andrea J. Ray, NOAA; Kevin Werner, NOAA/NCEI
11:00 AM
4A.1
The Intensification of Global and Regional Climate Variability and Change
Scott Weaver, NOAA/CPC, College Park, MD; and A. Kumar, S. Baxter, and K. J. Harnos
Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM
4A.2
California: Indications for continued groundwater depletion after drought and causes of drought variety
Shih-Yu (Simon) Wang, Utah State University, Logan, UT; and Y. H. Lin, R. R. Gillies, and K. Hakala
Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM
4A.3
A Signal Processing Approach to Multi-Decadal Temperature Forecasts, Revealing the Role of Anthropogenic Forcing Amidst Modes of Natural Variability
Kevin W. Murphy, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ
Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM
4A.4
Global Warming Projection in the 21st Century based on an Observational Data-Driven Model
Xubin Zeng, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and K. Geil
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Session 4B
Extreme Events
Location: La Nouvelle A ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Host: 28th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Richard Clark, Millersville Univ.
11:00 AM
4B.1
A Conceptual Model for Development of Intense Pyroconvection in Western North America
David A. Peterson, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. E. Solbrig, E. J. Hyer, J. R. Campbell, and M. D. Fromm
Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM
4B.2
Noteworthy Cool-Season Extreme Weather Events over Central and Eastern North America Associated with Strong Extratropical Cyclones
Alicia M. Bentley, University at Albany, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart and D. Keyser
Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM
4B.3
Anomalous Low Elevation Snowfall Event in Southern California of 30–31 December 2014
Brandt D. Maxwell, NOAA/NWS, San Diego, CA
Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM
4B.4
Diagnosing Anthropogenic Contributions to Heavy Colorado Rains in September 2013
Pardeep Pall, LBNL, Berkeley, CA; and C. Patricola, M. F. Wehner, D. Stone, C. J. Paciorek, and W. Collins

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Tuesday, 12 January 2016


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Tuesday, 12 January 2016

Recording files available
Lecture 2
Bernhard Haurwitz Lecture
Location: La Nouvelle C ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
1:30 PM
L2.1
What's Happening over the Poles? (Invited Presentation)
John Marshall, MIT, Cambridge, MA
Recorded Presentation

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Tuesday, 12 January 2016

Recording files available
Session 5
Topics in Interannual Variability: Part 1
Location: La Nouvelle A ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Host: 28th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Ben Kirtman, RSMAS
1:30 PM
5.1
Tropical Atmospheric Forcing of the Wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation
Bin Yu, EC, Toronto, ON, Canada; and H. Lin
Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM
5.2
Observed Oceanic and Terrestrial Drivers of North African Climate
Yan Yu, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and M. Notaro, F. Wang, J. Mao, X. Shi, and Y. Wei
Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM
5.3
An Analytical Model for Understanding Tropical Meridional Mode Behavior
Daniel J. Vimont, University of Wisconsin - Madison, Madison, WI; and C. Martinez-Villalobos
Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM
5.4
A Comparison of ENSO Variability in PMIP3 Models to Observations in the Southwest Pacific
Grace Duke, University of Maryland, College Park, MD
Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM
5.5
The Early-1990s Climate Shift in the Pacific: Evidence in ENSO Diversity and Its Linkage to the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation
Jin-Yi Yu, University of California, Irvine, CA; and H. Paek, E. S. Saltzman, and T. Lee
Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM
5.6
Deterministic and Stochastic Aspects of El NiñO's Impact on Atlantic Tropical Cyclones
Christina M. Patricola, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and P. Chang and R. Saravanan
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Themed Joint Session 12
Atmospheric Chemistry and Aerosols in Weather and Climate Prediction and Analysis
Location: Room 357 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the Eighth Symposium on Aerosol–Cloud–Climate Interactions; the 22nd Conference on Applied Climatology; the 28th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 19th Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA; and the 18th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry )
Chair: Pablo E. Saide, NCAR
Cochairs: Paul Bieringer, Aeris; Gregory Carmichael, University of Iowa
1:30 PM
TJ12.1
Aerosol Awareness in a Convective Parameterization for Deep and Shallow Convection: Comparison to Cloud Resolving Simulations (Invited Presentation)
Georg A. Grell, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and S. R. Freitas, P. Marrapu, and S. E. Peckham
Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM
TJ12.2
Impacts of Anthropogenic Air Pollution on Precipitation in Downwind Mountains
Jiwen Fan, PNNL, Richland, WA; and Y. Yang, D. Rosenfeld, L. R. Leung, C. Zhao, and Z. Li
Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM
TJ12.3
Recent Advances in Aerosol Treatments in Climate Modeling (Invited Presentation)
Philip Rasch, PNNL, Richland, WA
Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM
TJ12.4
The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2: The Goddard Aerosol Assimilation System Aerosol Reanalysis 1979 — Present
Cynthia A. Randles, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and A. Da Silva, V. Buchard, P. Colarco, A. S. Darmenov, V. Aquila, H. Yu, H. Bian, and R. Govindaraju

TJ12.5
Physicochemical Characterization of Coastal Aerosols over the Mediterranean- Comparison with WRF-Chem Simulations

2:30 PM
TJ12.5A
Boundary Layer Clouds and Absorbing Aerosols in the Southeast Atlantic
Adeyemi Adebiyi, RSMAS, Miami, FL; and P. Zuidema
Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM
TJ12.6
How We Can Constrain Aerosol Type Globally
Ralph Kahn, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD

Handout (14.6 MB)

Recording files available
Themed Joint Session 13
Helping Society Mitigate and Adapt to Climate Variability and Change Part I
Location: Room 245 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 22nd Conference on Applied Climatology; the 11th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the Fourth Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; and the 28th Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
Chair: Nancy J. Selover, Arizona State University
1:30 PM
TJ13.1
Expanding the Scope and User Community of NOAA's Climate Data Records (CDRs)
Daniel Wunder, Global Science & Technology Inc., Asheville, NC; and W. J. Glance and X. Zhao
Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM
TJ13.2
The U.S. Air Force's Climate Monitoring, Analysis, and Prediction (CMAP) Capability—Fusing Global Climate-scale Intelligence with Long-term Risk Analysis and Military Decision-making
Ryan J. Harris, United States Air Force, Asheville, NC
Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM
TJ13.3
Transient Climate Sensitivity of Simple Climate Models
Adria Schwarber, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and S. Smith and C. Hartin
Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM
TJ13.4
The NIDIS Coping with Drought Initiative: Understanding Drought Awareness and Informing Drought Early Warning Systems
Nancy Beller-Simms, NOAA, Silver Spring, MD; and C. Nierenberg
Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM
TJ13.5
Agro-climatological Support of International Food Security Assessments by the Famine Early Warning Systems Network
Andrew Hoell, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and J. Verdin
Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM
TJ13.6
Policy Implications for an Optimized Electric Power System Utilizing a National High-Voltage Direct-Current Transmission Network
Paul D. Picciano, NOAA/Pomona College, Seattle, WA; and C. T. Clack, J. Paine, and L. M. Terry

Handout (13.3 MB)

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Tuesday, 12 January 2016


Coffee Break
Location: Hall D ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

3:30 PM-5:15 PM: Tuesday, 12 January 2016

Recording files available
Session 6B
Topics in Interannual Variability: Part 2
Location: La Nouvelle A ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Host: 28th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Ben P. Kirtman, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS
3:30 PM
6B.1
Interannual Variability of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Its Impact on the North Atlantic Oscillation in the Boreal Winter
Hai Lin, EC, Dorval, QC, Canada; and G. Brunet and B. Yu
Recorded Presentation

3:45 PM
6B.2
Causes of Upper-Ocean Temperature Anomalies in the Tropical North Atlantic
Allyson Rugg, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. R. Foltz and R. Perez
Recorded Presentation

4:00 PM
6B.3
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation Frequency Cascade
Malte F. Stuecker, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and F. F. Jin and A. Timmermann
Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM
6B.4
Mechanisms of Linear and Non-Linear Pacific Meridional Mode/ENSO Interactions
Erin E. Thomas, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and D. J. Vimont
Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM
6B.5
Impacts of Rossby Wave Breaking on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity
Zhuo Wang, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and G. Zhang, T. J. Dunkerton, M. Peng, and G. Magnusdottir

4:45 PM
6B.6
Mean State and Interannual Variability of the Indian Summer Monsoon Simulation by NCEP CFSv2
Ravi Shukla, COLA, Fairfax, VA; and B. Huang
Recorded Presentation

6B.7
Using Climate Variability to Predict the Inter-annual Variability of Precipitation and to Estimate the Persistence of Climate Extremes for Urban Areas and Regions within the United States

6B.8
A new link between Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature variability and Australian region tropical cyclone counts

3:30 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 12 January 2016

Recording files available
Session 6A
Climate Change and the Large-scale Circulation
Location: La Nouvelle C ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Host: 28th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Kerry H. Cook, University of Texas
3:30 PM
6A.1
Is the Large-Scale Circulation Response to Increasing Greenhouse Gases Related to Climate Sensitivity? Lessons from CMIP5 Models
Kevin M. Grise, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA; and L. M. Polvani
Recorded Presentation

3:45 PM
6A.2
Free and Forced Changes of the Surface Atmospheric Circulation and Storminess over the last 140 years
Prashant D. Sardeshmukh, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and Physical Sciences Division/ESRL/NOAA, Boulder, CO; and G. P. Compo, C. Penland, and C. McColl

4:00 PM
6A.3
The Sinuosity of Atmospheric Circulation over North America and Its Relationship to Arctic Climate Change and Extreme Events
Stephen J. Vavrus, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and F. Wang, J. E. Martin, and J. Francis
Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM
6A.4
Interpretting Projected Changes in the Large Scale Circulation Relevant to the Climate of East Africa
Bradfield Lyon, Columbia University/International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Palisades, NY; and A. Giannini and N. Vigaud
Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM
6A.5
Trends in the global divergent overturning circulation, including the Hadley and Walker Circulations
Gilbert P. Compo, CIRES, Univ. of Colorado and Physical Sciences Division/ESRL/NOAA, Boulder, CO; and P. D. Sardeshmukh

4:45 PM
6A.6
Future Changes in Winter Stationary Waves in East Asia and the North Pacific Induced by Robust Changes in the Tropical Circulation
Shuhei Maeda, MRI, Tsukuba, Japan; and M. Harada and S. Wakamatsu
Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM
6A.7
Robust Changes in the Hadley Circulation and Global Dryness Under CO2 Warming from CMIP5 Model Projections
William K.-M. Lau, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and K. M. Kim
Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM
6A.8
Evaluating CMIP5 Models' Representation of Oceanic Drivers of North African Climate
Fuyao Wang, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and M. Notaro, Y. Yan, J. Mao, X. Shi, and Y. Wei
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Themed Joint Session 14
Helping Society Mitigate and Adapt to Climate Variability and Change Part II
Location: Room 245 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 22nd Conference on Applied Climatology; the 28th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 11th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; and the Fourth Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise )
Chair: Kristen Averyt, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado
3:30 PM
TJ14.1
Advances in Local Adaptation to Climate Change
Joel B. Smith, Stratus Consulting Inc., Boulder, CO; and J. Vogel, K. Carney, C. Herrick, M. O'Grady, H. Hosterman, A. St. Juliana, and M. Stults
Recorded Presentation

3:45 PM
TJ14.2
Estimating the Impact of Quality Education on Individual Lifetime Carbon Emissions
Eugene Cordero, San Jose State Univ., San Jose, CA; and D. C. Centeno
Recorded Presentation

4:00 PM
TJ14.3
NMME and the Frontier of Climate Scale Decision Support in Alaska
Richard L. Thoman Jr., NOAA, Fairbanks, AK
Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM
TJ14.4
Green and Cool Roofs to Mitigate Urban Heating: An Analysis with a Regional Climate Model
Ashish Sharma, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN; and P. Conry, H. J. S. Fernando, A. F. Hamlet, J. Hellmann, and F. Chen
Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM
TJ14.5
Can Solar Shade Structures Significantly Reduce Interior Automobile Temperatures?
Nancy J. Selover, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ; and A. Middel, N. Chhetri, B. Mackowski, and C. J. Sisodiya
Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM
TJ14.6
Increasing the Capacity for Municipal Climate Adaptation Planning in the Missouri River Basin
Natalie A. Umphlett, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and M. D. Shulski
Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM
TJ14.7
Assisting Hyde County, NC, with Comprehensive Community Flood Resilience Planning
Jessica C. Whitehead, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and J. M. Evans
Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM
TJ14.8
Supporting Resilient Coastal Communities and Ecosystems in a Changing Climate: Lessons Learned from an Interdisciplinary Research Program
Adrienne Antoine, OAR, Silver Spring, MD

Wednesday, 13 January 2016

Sunday | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | top

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 13 January 2016

Recording files available
Joint Session 2
Regional Climate Variability on Intraseasonal-to-Multidecadal Time Scales
Location: Room 343 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the Peter Lamb Symposium; and the 28th Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
Chair: Michael Richman, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma
J2.1
Synoptic Kelvin Type Perturbation Waves over Congo Basin During the Period 1979–2010

8:30 AM
J2.1A
Assessment of Soil Moisture Budget Using a Water Balance Model and Use of Model Results for Drought Early Warning. Case of a Moderate Semi Arid Watershed Northern Tunisia
Zoubeida Bargaoui, Université Tunis El Manar, Tunis, Tunisia; and M. zamouri and N. Abid
Recorded Presentation

Handout (688.6 kB)

8:45 AM
J2.2
Projected Changes in Malawi's Growing Season: Connections with the Large-scale Circulation
Kerry H. Cook, University of Texas, Austin, TX; and E. Vizy
Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM
J2.3
Representation of African Easterly Waves in CMIP5 Models
Elinor Martin, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and C. D. Thorncroft
Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM
J2.4
Comparison of Simulated and Reconstructed Variations in East African Hydroclimate over the Last Millennium
François Klein, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium; and H. Goosse, N. E. Graham, and D. Verschuren
Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM
J2.5
Horn of Africa Rainfall Sensitivity to Regional Sea Surface Temperature Forcing in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans
Zewdu Segele, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and L. M. Leslie and A. Tarhule
Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM
J2.6
Exploration of the ENSO-Sahel Relationship on Intraseasonal to Interannual Timescales and its Relevance to Local Climate Services
Catherine Pomposi, Columbia University, Palisades, NY; and O. Ndiaye, A. Giannini, and Y. Kushnir

Recording files available
Session 7A
Earth System Climate Reanalyses: Low Frequency Variability and Trends
Location: La Nouvelle C ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Host: 28th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Siegfried D. Schubert, Global Modeling and Assimilation Office; Dick Dee, ECMWF; Michael G. Bosilovich, NASA/GSFC/GMAO
8:30 AM
7A.1
Examining the Effects of Pacific Decadal Oscillation and ENSO on Global Precipitation during the Satellite Era (1979–2014)
Guojun Gu, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and R. Adler
Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM
7A.2
Trends in Lower Tropospheric Relative Humidity from 1979 to 2013
Hui Su, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and L. Wu and J. Jiang
Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM
7A.3
Ocean Response to Atmospheric Forcing by the ERA-20C Climate Reanalysis Within the ERA-CLIM2 Project
Eric de Boisseson, ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom; and M. A. Balmaseda
Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM
7A.4
Temperature Trends and Variability in the 20th Century reanalysis version “2c” dataset spanning 1851 to 2012
Gilbert P. Compo, CIRES, Univ. of Colorado and Physical Sciences Division/ESRL/NOAA, Boulder, CO; and J. S. Whitaker, P. D. Sardeshmukh, B. S. Giese, and P. Brohan
Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM
7A.5
Reanalysis Reveals a Possible Wave Pattern in 250hPa Meridional Wind Anomaly Since 1997
Gerald L. Potter, NASA, Greenbelt, MD; and G. Kiladis, T. P. Maxwell, and L. Carriere
Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM
7A.6
The Global Moisture Balance and its Variability in the MERRA-2 Reanalysis
Michael G. Bosilovich, NASA/GSFC/Global Modeling and Assimilation Offic, Greenbelt, MD; and F. R. Robertson and G. Partyka
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Session 7B
Multi-model Predictability and Prediction on Subseasonal to Seasonal Timescales: Part 1
Location: La Nouvelle A ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Host: 28th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Kathleen Pegion, George Mason University; Emily J. Becker, NOAA/NWS/NCEP; Hye-Mi Kim, SUNY
8:30 AM
7B.1
The Pacific Meridional Mode as an ENSO Precursor and Predictor in the North American Multimodel Ensemble
Sarah M. Larson, University of Miami RSMAS, Miami, FL; and B. Kirtman
Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM
7B.2
Multi-Model Ensemble for Seasonal Prediction at Environment Canada
Bertrand Denis, EC, Dorval, QC, Canada; and W. Merryfield
Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM
7B.3
Forecasting Temperature Extremes with the North American Multi-Model Ensemble
Emily J. Becker, NOAA/NWS/NCEP and Innovim, College Park, MD; and H. van den Dool
Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM
7B.4
Grand European and Asian-Pacific Multi-Model Seasonal Forecasts: Maximization of Skill and of Potential Economical Value to End-Users
Andrea Alessandri, Italian National Agency for New Technologies/Energy and Sustainable Economic Development, Santa Maria di Galeria, Italy; and M. De Felice, F. Catalano, D. Y. Lee, J. H. Yoo, J. Y. Lee, and B. Wang

9:30 AM
7B.5
Multivariate Correction and Statistical Disaggregation for Seasonal Multi-Model Ensemble Forecast Applications
J. Brent Roberts, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and F. R. Robertson

9:45 AM
7B.6
NMME Plans for Sub-seasonal Forecasts
Jin Huang, NOAA, College Park, MD; and K. Pegion and B. P. Kirtman
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Joint Session 13
Regional climate modeling predicting future changes in extreme precipitation events - Towards More Resilient Engineering Design
Location: Room 242 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 30th Conference on Hydrology; and the 28th Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
Cochairs: Francina Dominguez, University of Arizona; Kelly Mahoney, CIRES/University of Colorado; Kenneth E. Kunkel, CICS
8:30 AM
J13.1
Hydrometeorological Analyses of the June 1903 Heppner, Oregon Flood
Jim Smith, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and M. L. Baeck
Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM
J13.2
Examining terrain elevation assumptions used in current extreme precipitation estimation practices: A modeling study of the 2013 Colorado Front Range floods
Kelly M. Mahoney, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and J. J. Lukas and B. McCormick
Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM
J13.3
CWRF Physics Ensemble Improving Extreme Precipitation Prediction
Xin-Zhong Liang, University of Maryland, College Park, MD
Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM
J13.4
Extreme precipitation revealed through high-resolution dynamical downscaling
Robert Trapp, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and K. Hoogewind

9:30 AM
J13.5
Precipitation Extremes and Anthropogenically-forced Warming: Considerations for Future Changes in Design Values
Kenneth E. Kunkel, CICS, Asheville, NC; and J. A. Young
Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM
J13.6
High Resolution Simulation of a Colorado Rockies Extreme Snow and Rain Event in both a Current and Future Climate
Roy M. Rasmussen, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and K. Ikeda, C. Liu, E. Gutmann, and J. M. Thériault
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Themed Joint Session 15
Understanding Urban Growth and Climate Variability Impacts on Health, Adaptation, and Resilience: Part 3
Location: Room 255/257 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the Fourth Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation: Enhancing Our Nation’s Readiness, Responsiveness, and Resilience to High Impact Weather Events; the 28th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 22nd Conference on Applied Climatology; and the Seventh Conference on Environment and Health )
Chair: Wendy Marie Thomas, NOAA/NWS
8:30 AM
TJ15.1
Coastal Resilience to Extreme Weather and Climate: A Case Study of Applications on Long Island New York
Minghua Zhang, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and B. A. Colle, E. K. M. Chang, H. Bowman, S. G. Jang, W. Lin, and P. Liu

8:45 AM
TJ15.2
Hot in Baltimore: Urban Form's Impact on Fine-scale Temperature Differences
Anna A. Scott, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD; and D. W. Waugh, B. F. Zaitchik, and S. D. Guikema
Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM
TJ15.3
Heat Waves and the Urban Heat Island: Employing Citywide Observational Networks to Assess Spatiotemporal Variability of Air Temperature in the U.S. Northeast
Jennifer Vanos, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and A. W. Hardin
Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM
TJ15.4
The World Urban Database and Access Portal Tools, WUDAPT—an International Collaborative Project for Climate Relevant Physical Geography Data for the World's Cities
J. Ching, Univ. of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC; and G. Mills, L. See, B. Bechtel, J. Feddema, and A. Hanna
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (7.0 MB)

9:30 AM
TJ15.5
Urban Heat Island Reduction Strategies in Neighborhoods in Northern Manhattan, New York City
Juan Declet-Barreto, Natural Resources Defense Council, Washington, DC; and K. Knowlton, A. Huang, J. White-Newsome, C. D. Corbin-Mark, and O. Dotson-Newman
Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM
TJ15.6
The Potential Impacts of 21st Century Climatic and Population Changes on Human Exposure to the Virus Vector Mosquito Aedes aegypti
Andrew J. Monaghan, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and K. Sampson, D. F. Steinhoff, K. C. Ernst, K. L. Ebi, B. Jones, and M. H. Hayden
Recorded Presentation

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 13 January 2016


Coffee Break
Location: Hall D ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 13 January 2016

Recording files available
Session 8A
20th Century Reanalysis: Methods and Applications
Location: La Nouvelle C ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Host: 28th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Gilbert P. Compo, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and Physical Sciences Division/ESRL/NOAA
10:30 AM
8A.1
Changes in Extreme Warm and Cold Temperatures Associated with 20th Century Global Warming
Prashant D. Sardeshmukh, CIRES, University of Colorado and PSD/ESRL/NOAA, Boulder, CO; and G. P. Compo, C. McColl, and C. Penland

10:45 AM
8A.2
SOUSEI 150-year Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Reanalysis
Masayoshi Ishii, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tsukuba, Japan; and H. Koyama, H. Tatebe, T. Kataoka, J. Ono, H. Kubota, K. Lestari, H. Tokinaga, and M. Kimoto

11:00 AM
8A.3
Interannual to Decadal Variability of Ocean Evaporation as Viewed from Climate Reanalyses
Franklin R. Robertson, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and M. G. Bosilovich, J. B. Roberts, and H. Wang
Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM
8A.4
Adjustment of the Surface Heat Balance over the Tropical and Subtropical Oceans
Kerry H. Cook, University of Texas, Austin, TX; and E. Vizy
Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM
8A.5
Isentropic Analysis of Polar Cold Air Mass Streams in the Northern Hemispheric Winter Monsoon
Toshiki Iwasaki, Tohoku University, Sendai, Japan; and Y. Kanno and M. R. ABDILLAH
Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM
8A.6
Evaluating CFSR and MERRA Reanalysis Using AIRS, MLS and Radiosonde Vertical Air Temperature and Specific Humidity over India
Partha S. Bhattacharjee, NOAA, College Park, MD; and S. Saha
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Session 8B
Multi-model Predictability and Prediction on Subseasonal to Seasonal Timescales: Part 2
Location: La Nouvelle A ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Host: 28th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Kathleen Pegion, George Mason University
10:30 AM
8B.1
Towards a Multi-Model Subseasonal Excessive Heat Outlook System
Augustin Vintzileos, University of Maryland/Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, Camp Springs, MD; and J. Gottschalck
Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM
8B.2
Assessment of Calibration and Combination of Multi-Model Ensembles for Subseasonal Prediction
Dan C. Collins, NOAA/CPC, College Park, MD; and A. Vintzileos and S. Baxter
Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM
8B.3
Evaluation of the NMME Seasonal Climate Forecasts for Water Infrastructure Operations and Disaster Risk Management in East Africa
Solomon S. Demissie, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and M. Gebremichael, T. Hospson, and E. Riddle

11:15 AM
8B.4
SST Forecast and SST-US Precipitation Connections: A Diagnostic for North American Multi Model Ensemble
Li Xu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, MD

11:30 AM
8B.5
Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Scale Skill Assessment of NMME Models in Forecasting Precipitation in California
Shraddhanand Shukla, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA; and D. Cayan and F. M. Ralph

11:45 AM
8B.6
2-Tiered Seasonal Climate Prediction over North America with CCSM4
Johnna Infanti, RSMAS, Miami, FL; and B. P. Kirtman

Recording files available
Joint Session 14
Land-Atmosphere Interactions, Part I
Location: Room 240/241 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 30th Conference on Hydrology; and the 28th Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
Cochairs: Randal D. Koster, NASA/GSFC; Yongkang Xue, University of California; Steven Quiring, Texas A&M University
10:30 AM
J14.1
From Groundwater to the Atmosphere – a study of the Hydroclimate of the La Plata Basin
Francina Dominguez, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and A. Martinez and G. Miguez-Macho
Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM
J14.2
Bridging the Soil Water Scale Gap in Land-Atmosphere Interactions
Ian Baker, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and P. J. Sellers
Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM
J14.3
Using ARM Observations to Evaluate Land-Atmosphere Coupling in CAM5 Model Hindcasts on the U.S. Southern Great Plains
Thomas J. Phillips, LLNL, Livermore, CA; and S. A. Klein and H. Y. Ma
Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM
J14.4
An Analysis of Soil Moisture-Precipitation Feedback Using the North American Regional Reanalysis Dataset
Deanna Apps, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI; and L. Luo
Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM
J14.5
Seasonal and Interannual Variability of Land-Atmosphere Coupling within the Southern Great Plains
Jordan Christian, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY; and J. B. Basara
Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM
J14.6
The Impact of Soil Moisture on the Oklahoma Dryline During the 2011 Drought
Paul X. Flanagan, School of Meteorology, Norman, OK; and J. B. Basara

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 13 January 2016


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Wednesday, 13 January 2016

Recording files available
Lecture 3
Horton Lecture
Location: Room 244 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 32nd Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 23rd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences; the Fourth Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; the Fifth Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology Special Symposium; the Seventh Conference on Environment and Health; the 22nd Conference on Applied Climatology; the 13th Conference on Space Weather; the 19th Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA; the 30th Conference on Hydrology; the Special Sessions on US-International Partnerships; the 25th Symposium on Education; the 14th Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 12th Annual Symposium on New Generation Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the Fourth Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation: Enhancing Our Nation’s Readiness, Responsiveness, and Resilience to High Impact Weather Events; the Fourth AMS Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA); the Peter Lamb Symposium; the 20th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); the 18th Symposium on Meteorological Observation and Instrumentation; the 14th Conference on Artificial and Computational Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences; the 11th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the Seventh Conference on Weather, Climate, Water and the New Energy Economy; the Sixth Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the Fourth Symposium on Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Processes, Prediction and Impact; the 28th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the Events; the 18th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 14th History Symposium; the Eighth Symposium on Aerosol–Cloud–Climate Interactions; and the Special Symposium on Seamless Weather and Climate Prediction—Expectations and Limits of Multi-scale Predictability )
1:30 PM
L3.1
Climate and Humans as Amplifiers of Hydro-ecologic Change: Science and Policy Implications for Intensively Managed Landscapes (Invited Presentation)
Efi Foufoula-Georgiou Sr., Univ. of Minnesota/National Center for Earth Surface Dynamics, Minneapolis, MN
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Session 9A
Climate Scenarios for the National Climate Assessment: Future Directions
Location: La Nouvelle C ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Host: 28th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: David R. Easterling, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC; Kenneth E. Kunkel, CICS
1:30 PM
9A.1
The Development of Climate Scenarios for the National Climate Assessment
Kenneth E. Kunkel, CICS, Asheville, NC; and D. R. Easterling
Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM
9A.2
A Seamless Approach of Improving Climate Projection for US Great Plains
Rong Fu, University of Texas, Austin, TX; and D. N. Fernando, L. Yin, and B. Pu

2:00 PM
9A.3
The Value of GCM-RCM Simulation Programs for Determining Credible Regional Projections of Climate and their Potential Use in Future National Climate Assessments
Linda O. Mearns, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and W. J. Gutowski
Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM
9A.4
NCA-LDAS: An Integrated Terrestrial Water Analysis System for Sustained Assessment and Dissemination of National Climate Indicators
Michael F. Jasinski, NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. V. Kumar, C. D. Peters-Lidard, K. R. Arsenault, H. Beaudoing, J. Bolten, J. S. Borak, S. J. Kempler, B. Li, Y. Liu, D. M. Mocko, M. Rodell, and B. Vollmer

Recording files available
Session 9B
Subseasonal Variability: Part 1
Location: La Nouvelle A ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Host: 28th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Hai Lin, EC
1:30 PM
9B.1
Effects of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings and Quasi-biennial Oscillation on El Nino Teleconnections
Jadwiga H. Richter, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Deser and L. Sun
Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM
9B.2
Updating the paradigm of Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves and the MJO
Prashant D. Sardeshmukh, CIRES, Univ. of Colorado and Physical Sciences Division/ESRL/NOAA, Boulder, CO; and M. Newman

2:00 PM
9B.3
The Antecedents of Subtropical PV Streamer Formation in the North Atlantic Basin
Philippe P. Papin, University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart and R. D. Torn
Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM
9B.4
Charge and Discharge of Polar Cold Air Mass in Northern Hemispheric Winter
Yuki Kanno, Tohoku University, Sendai, Japan; and M. R. Abdillah and T. Iwasaki

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Wednesday, 13 January 2016


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Hall D/E ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

Poster Session 2
Wednesday/Thursday Poster Session
Location: Hall D/E ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Host: 28th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
595
An Exploratory Analysis of the 20th Century Reanalysis Extra-Tropical Cyclone Track Density
Ronald D. Leeper, Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites, Asheville, NC

596
An Evaluation of the Atmospheric Water Budget Components over the Southwest Pacific Using Multiple Datasets, with Special Emphasis on Evaporation
Ning Li, The University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand; and G. Bellon

597
Climatology of the Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones in the North Atlantic Using a Variable-Resolution GCM with Regional Refinement
Diana R. Thatcher, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and C. M. Zarzycki and C. Jablonowski

598
Predictability of the Wintertime Arctic Oscillation Based on Autumn Circulation: Assessment on Independent Data
Vladimir Kryjov, Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center, Busan, South Korea; and Y. M. Min

599
Collaborative REAnalysis Technical Environment—Visualizer (CREATE-V)
Mark McInerney, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and G. L. Potter, L. Carriere, D. Nadeau, E. Winter, J. Peters, T. P. Maxwell, S. Strong, Y. Shen, J. Hertz, S. Ambrose, J. L. Schnase, and G. S. Tamkin

600
Reducing Reanalyses Data Wrangling with CREATE-IP
Laura Carriere, NASA, Greenbelt, MD; and G. L. Potter, M. McInerney, Y. Shen, J. Hertz, G. Britzolakis, and D. Nadeau

601
Historical Caribbean Synoptic types and Downscaling to Northeast Puerto Rico Precipitation Variability using Self-Organizing Maps
Craig A. Ramseyer, University Of Georgia, Athens, GA; and T. L. Mote

Handout (6.2 MB)

602
Application of the delta-four-stream approximation method to the global forecast model of Japan Meteorological Agency
Ryohei Sekiguchi, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, Japan; and R. Nagasawa and S. Yabu

603
Future Changes in Monsoon Precipitation by High-Resolution MRI-AGCM Ensemble Simulations with Multi-SSTs and Multi-Physics
Hirokazu Endo, MRI, Tsukuba, Japan; and A. Kitoh, K. Yoshida, R. Mizuta, and O. Arakawa

604
A Machine-Learning Approach to Studying Relationships Between Extremes in Geopotential Height and Surface Temperature
Krishna Karthik Gadiraju, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and B. Ramachandra, D. Kaiser, T. P. Karnowski, R. R. Vatsavai, and S. Ostro

Handout (5.9 MB)

605
Plate Climatology Theory
Paul Edward Kamis, Independent, Norman, Oklahoma; and J. E. Kamis
Manuscript (205.1 kB)

Handout (1.3 MB)

606
Low-Level Cloud and Low-Level Jet Occurrence during Warm ENSO Events in Indonesia and Northern Australia
C. Bayu Risanto, Creighton University, Omaha, NE; and J. M. Schrage

608
The Dominant Features of the Intraseasonal Oscillation Related to the Rainfall over the Yangtze River Basin in Meiyu seasons
Yonghong Yao, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China; and H. Lin, Q. Wu, and Y. Huang

Poster 607 has been moved to poster 855A.

609
Diurnal variation of isolated convection over land and ocean in the southeastern United States: A case study
Thomas M. Rickenbach, East Carolina University, Greenville, NC; and R. Ferreira and M. Nissenbaum

610
Climate Variability of Indian Summer Monsoon and their Impacts Associated with Large-Scale Circulations
R. Suseela Reddy, Jackson State Univ., Jackson, MS; and F. Tuluri and M. Fadavi

611
West Pacific Jet Retraction: A Case Study and Phase Space Analysis
Melissa L. Breeden, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and J. E. Martin

612
Contrasting Relationship between Tropical Western North Pacific Convection and Rainfall over East Asia during Indian Ocean Warm and Cold Summers
Jie Song, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

613
Linear Stochastic Analysis of AMOC Dynamics in Different General Circulation Models

614
Using High Spectral Resolution Infrared Satellite Measurements to Monitor Climate Trends
Daniel DeSlover, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and R. Knuteson, D. Tobin, and H. Revercomb

615
Sensitivities of the double-ITCZ rainfall bias in the Superparameterized Community Earth System Model
Sungduk Yu, University of California, Irvine, CA; and M. Pritchard and C. Bretherton

616
Evaluating Predictions of Convective Environments using the Climate Forecast System Version 2
Adam J. Stepanek, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and R. Trapp and M. E. Baldwin

617
Application of the 30km FIM-iHYCOM coupled model to subseasonal forecasting within S2S NMME
Stan Benjamin, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and S. Sun, H. Li, B. Green, R. Bleck, and G. Grell

618
The Influence of Large-Scale Climate Drivers on Synoptic-Scale Precipitation Variability in the Snowy Mountains, South-East Australia
Alison Theobald, University of Queensland, St. Lucia, Australia; and H. McGowan and J. Speirs

619
Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecast Skill of North American Precipitation and Surface Air Temperature
Zhichang Guo, COLA, Fairfax, VA; and P. A. Dirmeyer

620
Comparison of Warm Season North American Precipitation Variability Observations to CFSv2
Kirstin J. Harnos, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, College Park, MD; and S. Weaver

622
Effects of a better-resolved stratosphere on seasonal forecasts of the Northern Hemisphere Winter
Andre Hernandez-Espiet, University of Puerto Rico, Mayaguez, PR; and J. H. Richter and C. C. Chen

621
An Evaluation of the Seasonal Arctic Sea Ice Predictions from CFSv2

623
Application of Self-Organizing Maps to Observed and Simulated Daily Precipitation over the Tropical and Southern Pacific Ocean
Max Pike, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ; and B. R. Lintner and M. J. Niznik

624
Precipitation variations during the recent SST warming period in the Intra-Americas Region, 1982–2012
Equisha Glenn, City College, New York, NY; and M. Angeles, D. Comarazamy, T. Smith, and J. Gonzalez

625
Multi-Model Prediction for Western Pacific Cross-Equatorial Flow
Hye-Mi Kim, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and Y. Zhou

626
An Observational Radiative Constraint on Hydrologic Cycle Intensification
Anthony M. DeAngelis, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and X. Qu, M. D. Zelinka, and A. Hall

Handout (1.3 MB)

627
Climate Projections for the Central USA at High Resolution
Quinn Pallardy, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and B. M. Svoma

628
PDO Modulated ENSO Variability Impacting Regional Missouri Crop Yields
Chasity B. Henson, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and P. S. Market, A. R. Lupo, and P. Guinan

629
North Atlantic Oscillation, Jet and Blocking in CESM1 Large Ensemble Simulations
Alicia C. Camacho, NCAR, Elgin, IL; and Y. O. Kwon and H. Seo

Impacts of Long-Term Drought on Regional Precipitation-Frequency

630
Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Air Temperature over Northwestern Nigeria: A Climate Change Perspective
Bernard Tarza Tyubee, Benue State Univ., Makurdi, Nigeria; and D. O. Onyilo

631
Estimation of Regional Climate Changes in European and Mediterranean Subregions Using Different RCP Scenarios
Rita Pongrácz, Eötvös Loránd University, Budapest, Hungary; and J. Bartholy, I. Pieczka, and K. Szabóné André
Manuscript (3.0 MB)

632
ENSO and PDO Trends and Phases and Their Influence on California Climate Variability and Extreme Weather, Including Floods and Droughts
William C. Patzert, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and P. Ramirez, S. LaDochy, and J. Willis

633
The Role of Anthropogenic External Forcing in Australian Rainfall Trends
Carsten Frederiksen, Collaboration for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Docklands, Australia; and S. Grainger

634
Climate Change and the Sea Breeze in the North Carolina Coast
Nicholas T. Luchetti, Digital Earth Virtual Environment and Learning Outreach Project National Program, Greenville, NC; and R. Ferreira

635
Identification of California, Oregon, and Washington Coastal Area Climate Divisions' Relative Anomaly Modes in Total Seasonal Precipitation with Characterization of Their Occurrence Probabilities Relative to El Nino, Neutral, and La Nina Episodes
Charles J. Fisk, Naval Base Ventura County, Pt. Mugu, CA
Manuscript (520.1 kB)

"Carbon poll and Sequestration Scenario of Sunaulo Ghaympe Danda Community Forest, Kathmandu"


Joint Poster Session 6
Land-Atmosphere Interactions Posters
Location: New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center
Hosts: (Joint between the 30th Conference on Hydrology; and the 28th Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
Cochairs: Randal D. Koster, NASA/GSFC; Yongkang Xue, University of California; Steven M. Quiring, Texas A&M University
567
The dynamic diagnosis on developing mechanism of two low vortex snowstorm processes in Liaoning in early 2015
yan qi Jr., Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (CAMS), Shenyang, China; and M. wen Jr.

568
Development of a Coordinated National Soil Moisture Network: A Pilot Study
Steven M. Quiring, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and J. M. Lucido, L. A. Winslow, T. W. Ford, P. B. Baruah, J. Verdin, R. S. Pulwarty, and M. L. Strobel

569
Moisture and Precipitation Evolution during Tropical Cyclone Formation as Revealed by SSMI/SSMIS
Zhuo Wang, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL

570
Evaluation of Long-term Soil Moisture Proxies in the U.S. Great Plains
Shanshui Yuan, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and S. M. Quiring

571
Integrated Cropland and Grassland Flux Tower Observation Sites over Grazinglands for Quantifying Surface-Atmosphere Exchange
Hayden R. Mahan, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and Y. Zhou, R. Bajgain, J. B. Basara, X. Xiao, P. Wagle, P. Starks, J. Steiner, and B. Northup

572
Evaluating Land Information System (LIS) capabilities in simulating the water budget and surface water dynamics over data-scarce areas in the Middle East
Augusto Getirana, NASA, Greenbelt, MD; and A. McNally, C. Peters-Lidard, and H. C. Jung

573
Satellite remote sensing observations of land-atmosphere interactions for understanding drought mechanisms
Joshua Roundy, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS; and J. A. Santanello Jr.

574
NOAA/CMA High Resolution Real Time Analysis for Severe Weather Warnings
Qianhong Tang, CMA, Beijing, China; and Y. Xie and X. Tan

575
Soil Moisture Prediction in the Soil, Vegetation and Snow (SVS) Scheme
Nasim Alavi, EC, Dorval, QC, Canada; and S. Bélair, V. Fortin, S. Zhang, S. Z. Husain, M. Carrera, and M. Abrahamowicz

576
Impacts of soil moisture initialization and memory on subseasonal forecast skill over North America
Zhichang Guo, COLA, Fairfax, VA; and P. A. Dirmeyer

577
The Comparison of Summer-seasonal Surface Water Cycles in the NCEP Coupled Forecast System (CFS) Using Noah and Noah Multiple Parameterization (Noah-MP) Land Surface Models
Rongqian Yang, NOAA/NWS/NCEP and IMSG, College Park, MD; and M. Ek

578
Influences of Cloud Super-Parameterization on Land-Atmosphere Energetics and Surface Temperature Biases
Gabriel J. Kooperman, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA; and M. S. Pritchard

579
Stem-root flow effect on land-atmosphere interaction
Tzu-Hsien Kuo, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and J. P. Chen

580
Estimating water surface energy balance from a single depth temperature measurement
Jiachuan Yang, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ; and Z. H. Wang, Q. Li, N. Vercauteren, E. Bou-Zeid, and M. B. Parlange

581
Assessment of Irrigation and Wind Turbine Wake Effects on Land-Atmosphere Interactions in a Desert Regime using High-Resolution Model Simulations
Patricia Lawston, University of Delaware, Newark, DE

582
Effects of Multidecadal Changes in Temperature, Snowpack and Precipitation on Streamflow in Southwestern Rivers
David S. Gutzler, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM

583
Analysis of seasonal snowpack simulations in the southern Rocky Mountains
Logan Karsten, NCAR, Boulder, Colorado; and A. Dugger, D. J. Gochis, and M. Barlage

584
The influence of canopy architecture on the effective surface roughness of vineyards
Joseph G. Alfieri, USDA/ARS, Beltsville, MD; and W. P. Kustas, F. Gao, J. H. Prueger, and L. E. Hipps

Canopy Interception and Sheltering Effects on Macroscale Snow Sublimation


Joint Poster Session 7
Regional climate modeling predicting future changes in extreme precipitation events - Towards More Resilient Engineering Design Posters
Hosts: (Joint between the 30th Conference on Hydrology; and the 28th Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
Cochairs: Francina Dominguez, University of Arizona; Kelly M. Mahoney, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado; Kenneth E. Kunkel, CICS
585
An Integrated High-Resolution Multi-Member Modeling Approach to Assessing Mid-Century Climate Change Impacts on Extreme Hydrological Events and Water Supplies in the Western United States
Brianna Rita Pagan, Loyola Marymount University, Los Angeles, CA; and M. Ashfaq, D. R. Kendall, and J. S. Pal

586
How well do high resolution limited area models simulate sub-tropical precipitation? A comparison of High Resolution Regional Climate Model output for Puerto Rico
Adrienne M. Wootten, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and J. H. Bowden, V. Misra, L. Stefanova, R. P. Boyles, and A. Terando

587
Projected changes of extreme runoff characteristics under climate change conditions – case study for a Central/Eastern European catchment
Rita Pongrácz, Eötvös Loránd University, Budapest, Hungary; and J. Bartholy, A. Kis, and J. A. Szabó
Manuscript (1.2 MB)

588
Changes in Water Balance in the Corn Belt over the past 30 years
Cody H. Troop, South Dakota School of Mines & Technology, Rapid City, SD; and D. P. Todey and W. Capehart

589
Evaluation of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model Estimates of Mountain Snow
Melissa L. Wrzesien, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH; and M. T. Durand and T. M. Pavelsky

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 13 January 2016

Recording files available
Session 10A
Mechanisms of Anthropogenic Aerosol-Forced Regional Climate Variability
Location: La Nouvelle C ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Host: 28th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Massimo A. Bollasina, University of Edinburgh; Yi Ming, GFDL
4:00 PM
10A.1
Confronting the Global Climate Response to Black Carbon Aerosols with its Uncertainty
Salil Mahajan, ORNL, Oak Ridge, TN; and M. Kovilakam
Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM
10A.2
Oceanic Feedback in Regional Climate Response to Sulfate Aerosol Forcing
Tarun Verma, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and S. Mahajan, W. C. Hsieh, P. Chang, and R. Saravanan
Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM
10A.3
The Importance of Aerosol Scenarios in Projections of Future Heat Extremes
Yangyang Xu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. F. Lamarque and B. Sanderson
Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM
10A.4
Impacts of Snow Darkening by Absorbing Aerosols on Eurasian Climate
Kyu-myong Kim, NASA/GSFC/Climate and Radiation Laboratory, Greenbelt, MD; and W. K. M. Lau, T. J. Yasunari, and M. K. Kim

5:00 PM
10A.5
Attempts to Separate the Effects of Aerosol, Greenhouse Gases and Urbanization in the Temperature and Precipitation Trends in China
Zhanqing Li, University of Maryland, College Park, MD
Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM
10A.6
Non-local Impact of South and East Asian Aerosols on Monsoon Onset and Withdrawal
Rachel E. Bartlett, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Midlothian, United Kingdom; and M. A. Bollasina, B. B. B. Booth, N. Dunstone, and F. Marenco

Recording files available
Session 10B
Subseasonal Variability: Part 2
Location: La Nouvelle A ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Host: 28th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Hai Lin, EC
4:00 PM
10B.1
An Investigation of the Presence of Atmospheric Rivers During the Planetary-Scale Wave Life Cycle and Their Role in Arctic Warming
Cory Francis Baggett, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and S. Lee
Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM
10B.2
Skillful North American Temperature and Precipitation Forecasts for Weeks 3 and 4 Conditioned on the ENSO and MJO Base State
Daniel S. Harnos, Innovim/NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, College Park, MD; and N. Johnson, M. L'Heureux, and S. Baxter
Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM
10B.3
Boreal Winter Storm Tracks and Associated Precipitation in North America: A Potential Vorticity Perspective
Katherine E. Lukens, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and E. H. Berbery
Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM
10B.4
A Stratospheric Link Between Barents-Kara Sea-Ice and the Circulation in the North Atlantic Sector
Paolo Ruggieri, University of L'Aquila, L'Aquila, Italy; and F. Kucharski, R. Buizza, and G. Visconti
Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM
10B.5
Stationary Wave Interference, and Its Relation to Tropical Convection and Arctic Warming
Michael Goss, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and S. B. Feldstein and S. Lee
Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM
10B.6
Implications of the Observed 25 Day Periodicity in the Extratropical Circulation for Weather and Climate
Brian R. Crow, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and D. W. J. Thompson
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Joint Session 17
Land-Atmosphere Interactions, Part II
Location: Room 240/241 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 30th Conference on Hydrology; and the 28th Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
Cochairs: Randal D. Koster, NASA/GSFC; Yongkang Xue, University of California; Steven M. Quiring, Texas A&M University
4:00 PM
J17.1
Role of the carbon cycle on land-atmosphere interactions
Pierre Gentine, Columbia University, New York, NY; and L. Lemordant and J. Greent
Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM
J17.2
Coupling Noah-MP to the NCEP Climate Forecast​​ System (CFS) to improve land-atmosphere interactions at seasonal forecast timescales
Michael Barlage, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and F. Chen, M. B. Ek, R. Yang, J. Meng, Z. L. Yang, and S. Chung
Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM
J17.3
Impact of land surface initialization on seasonal forecasts of the extremes of Indian summer monsoon
Subhadeep Halder, COLA, Fairfax, VA; and P. A. Dirmeyer, L. Marx, and J. L. Kinter III

4:45 PM
J17.4
Interaction of Convective Processes and Associated Precipitation Driven by the Land Surface Heterogeneity in the Coastal Carolinas
Aaron P. Sims, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and S. Raman
Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM
J17.5
WRF simulations of thunderstorms triggered by the Alberta oil sands development
Daniel Martin Brown, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada; and G. W. Reuter
Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM
J17.6
The Effect of the Groundwater Representation on Land surface-Atmosphere Feedbacks in Regional Climate Simulations
Jessica Keune, University of Bonn, Germany, Bonn, Germany; and K. Görgen, M. Sulis, F. Gasper, P. Shrestha, A. Hense, and S. Kollet
Recorded Presentation

5:30 PM-6:30 PM: Wednesday, 13 January 2016


Awards Banquet Reception in the Exhibit Hall
Location: Hall D ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

7:00 PM-10:00 PM: Wednesday, 13 January 2016


96th AMS Awards Banquet
Location: Great Hall ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

Thursday, 14 January 2016

Sunday | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | top

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Thursday, 14 January 2016

Recording files available
Session 11A
Advances in Climate Modeling and Prediction: Part 1
Location: La Nouvelle C ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Host: 28th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: R. Saravanan, Texas A&M University
11A.1
Signs of Surprising Skill in Dynamic Predictions Beyond the 2-Week Limit of Predictability—Evaluation of the Operational CFSv2 for Week 3 and 4

8:30 AM
11A.2
Atmospheric Rivers and Heavy Precipitation From a Hierarchy of Climate Simulations
L. Ruby Leung, PNNL, Richland, WA; and S. M. Hagos, J. Lu, Y. Gao, and C. Zhao
Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM
11A.3
Identifying Leading Spatial Patterns of Model Uncertainty and Bias in Perturbed Physics Ensembles and Multi-Model Ensembles
Baird Langenbrunner, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and J. D. Neelin, B. R. Lintner, and D. N. Bernstein
Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM
11A.4
Impacts of Changes in Atmospheric Physics Parameterizations in a Coupled Regional Climate Model
Mark W. Seefeldt, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and J. J. Cassano, A. DuVivier, and M. Hughes
Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM
11A.5
Cloud Resolving Simulation of Indian Monsoon Precipitation and Implications on Cumulus Parameterizations
Deepeshkumar Jain, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, India; and A. Chakraborty and R. S. Nanjundiah
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Session 11B
Decadal-Multidecadal Variability in Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Basins: Part 1
Location: Room 352 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Host: 28th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Benjamin J. Henley, University of Melbourne
8:30 AM
11B.1
Initialized Decadal Prediction for Transition to Positive Phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and Resumption of Larger Rates of Global Warming
Gerald Meehl, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and A. Hu and H. Teng
Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM
11B.2
Why Was It so Wet in Winter 2013–14 over North West Europe?
Jeff Knight, Met Office Hadley Centre, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom, Exeter, Devon, United Kingdom; and A. Maidens, D. Fereday, C. Folland, A. Scaife, and G. Brunet
Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM
11B.3
Is the PDO a Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Process?
Natalie Perlin, RSMAS/Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and B. P. Kirtman
Recorded Presentation

Handout (4.3 MB)

9:15 AM
11B.4
Decadal Variability in the Pacific: observations, modelling and palaeoclimate
Benjamin J. Henley, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Australia; and D. J. Karoly, J. Gergis, and M. Freund
Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM
11B.5
Ice core-derived histories of North Pacific climate variability
Stacy E. Porter, Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center, Columbus, OH; and E. Mosley-Thompson and L. G. Thompson
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Session 11C
Regional Climate Variability and Change: Part 1
Location: La Nouvelle A ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Host: 28th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Kerry H. Cook, University of Texas
8:30 AM
11C.1
Large-scale Influences on the Occurrence and Maintenance of Mixed Phase Clouds over the Greenland Ice Sheet
Jonathan Edwards-Opperman, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. D. Turner and S. M. Cavallo
Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM
11C.2
Changes in Global Precipitation from the 18th Century to 2013
William A. van Wijngaarden, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (526.8 kB)

9:00 AM
11C.3
Variability of Hawaiian Winter Rainfall During La Nina Events Since 1956
Pao-Shin Chu, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and C. O'Conner, P. C. Hsu, and K. Kodama
Recorded Presentation

Handout (1.2 MB)

9:15 AM
11C.4
Using Resolved Jet Dynamics to Address Rainfall Uncertainty over the Sahel
David P. Whittleston, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and D. Entekhabi
Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM
11C.5
How Much Does Downscaling Contribute to Uncertainty in Downscaled Climate Projections? A Case Study in Eastern North Carolina
Adrienne M. Wootten, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and A. Terando, B. Reich, and R. P. Boyles
Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM-11:00 AM: Thursday, 14 January 2016


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Hall D/E ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)

11:00 AM-11:45 AM: Thursday, 14 January 2016

Recording files available
Session 12B
Decadal-Multidecadal Variability in Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Basins: Part 2
Location: Room 352 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Host: 28th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Benjamin J. Henley, University of Melbourne
11:00 AM
12B.1
Temporal Multiscaling Behaviors of Sea Surface Temperature in Observations and CMIP5 Historical Simulations
Ming Luo, Chinese University of Hong Kong, New Territories, Hong Kong
Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM
12B.2
Mechanisms and Predictability of the June to August Summer North Atlantic Oscillation
Chris Folland, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; and H. L. Ren, H. Linderholm, and J. Knight
Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM
12B.3
AGCM Simulation of the North Pacific Climate Shift in the 1920s
Hiroki Tokinaga, Kyoto University, Uji, Japan

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 14 January 2016

Recording files available
Session 12A
Advances in Climate Modeling and Prediction: Part 2
Location: La Nouvelle C ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Host: 28th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: R. Saravanan, Texas A&M University
11:00 AM
12A.1
Improving the Prognostic Ozone Parameterization in the NCEP GFS and CFS for Climate Reanalysis and Operational Forecasts
Gilbert P. Compo, CIRES, Univ. of Colorado and Physical Sciences Division/ESRL/NOAA, Boulder, CO; and S. Moorthi, S. Lu, C. S. Long, H. T. Lee, J. P. McCormack, P. D. Sardeshmukh, and J. S. Whitaker

11:15 AM
12A.2
The Use of Reduced Complexity Frameworks for Model Development
Kevin A. Reed, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and B. Medeiros and D. R. Chavas
Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM
12A.3
Ultraparameterization: A New Strategy for Including Explicit Low Cloud Physics in Global Climate Models at the GPU-Accelerated Petascale
Mike Pritchard, University of California, Irvine, CA; and C. Bretherton, M. Khairoutdinov, H. Parishani, M. Wyant, and B. Singh
Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM
12A.4
Role of Ocean Dynamics in Realizing the Climate over the Intra-Americas Seas
Vasu Misra, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and A. K. Mishra

Recording files available
Session 12C
Regional Climate Variability and Change: Part 2
Location: La Nouvelle A ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Host: 28th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Kerry H. Cook, University of Texas
12C.1
Attribution of record high daily temperatures in Australia in 2013 and 2014

11:00 AM
12C.1A
The variability of the Saharan Heat Low intensity and its impact on the West African Climate and precipitation
Christophe Lavaysse, European Commission, Ispra, Italy; and C. Flamant, A. Evan, S. Janicot, and M. Gaetani
Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM
12C.2
Revisiting Trends in Wetness and Dryness in the Presence of Internal Climate Variability
Sanjiv Kumar, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and R. P. Allan, P. A. Dirmeyer, D. M. Lawrence, and F. W. Zwiers
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (49.4 kB)

11:30 AM
12C.3
An Attempt to Deconstruct the Observed Climate Trends in the Baltic Sea Basin
Hans von Storch, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht Centre for Materials and Coastal Research, Geesthacht, Germany; and A. Barkhordarian and C. R. Mechoso
Recorded Presentation

Handout (4.1 MB)

11:45 AM
12C.4
Factors Contributing to Regional and Seasonal Trends in Temperature Extremes
Randall Dole, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and M. Hoerling, J. Perlwitz, K. Wolter, and J. Eischeid
Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 14 January 2016


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 14 January 2016

Recording files available
Joint Session 7
Studies Involving Extreme Temperature Variability and Intensity Related to our Changing Change
Location: Room 228/229 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the Seventh Conference on Environment and Health; and the 28th Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
Chair: Austin C. Stanforth, Indiana University
1:30 PM
J7.1
Historical Changes in the Moisture Content of Heat Waves in the United States
J.T. Schoof, Southern Illinois University, Carbondale, IL
Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM
J7.2
On the Use of Statistical Downscaling Time-invariant Transfer Functions and Their Effect on Historical and Future Climate Indices. Case study: Heat Wave Duration in Montreal, Canada
Carlos Felipe Gaitan, University of Oklahoma/NOAA-GFDL, Princeton, NJ
Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM
J7.3
Regional Climate Change Over Southwest Asia
Jeremy S. Pal, Loyola Marymount University, Los Angeles, CA; and E. A. B. Eltahir

2:15 PM
J7.4
Detection of Anthropogenic Influence on a Summertime Heat Stress Index
Thomas R. Knutson, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and J. J. Ploshay
Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM
J7.6
Science Communication: Meteorologists and Climate Change & Health
Jay Lemery, University of Colorado , Denver, Colorado; and C. Sorensen
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Session 13A
Decadal-Multidecadal Variability in Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Basins: Part 3
Location: Room 352 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Host: 28th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Benjamin J. Henley, University of Melbourne
1:30 PM
13A.1
Different Influences on Tropical Pacific SST Gradient from Natural Forcing and Anthropogenic Forcing
Liang Ning, Nanjing Normal University and University of Massachusetts, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China; and J. Liu and Z. Wang
Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM
13A.2
Atlantic Induced Climate Changes in the Tropical Ocean and Atmosphere
Xichen Li, IAP, Beijing, China; and S. P. Xie, S. T. Gille, and C. Yoo
Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM
13A.3
Evaluating the Effects of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on Winter Precipitation in the Cascades Using a Mixed-Physics WRF Ensemble
Carly Buxton, University of Delaware, Newark, DE
Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM
13A.4
On the Application of Microwave Satellite Data to Assess Changes in Storminess over the Pacific Ocean
Michael C. Kruk, ERT, Inc., Asheville, NC; and K. Hilburn and J. Marra
Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM
13A.5
Interdecadal Variability and Frequency of Extreme Precipitation Events in South America during the Monsoon Season
Alice M. Grimm, Federal University of Parana, Curitiba, Brazil; and N. C. Laureanti, R. B. Rodakoviski, and C. B. Gama
Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM
13A.6
Circulation changes of Western North Pacific warm pool in tropical cyclone season
Yen-Heng Lin, Utah State University, Logan, UT; and S. Y. Wang

Recording files available
Session 13B
Regional Climate Variability and Change: Part 3
Location: La Nouvelle A ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Host: 28th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Massimo A. Bollasina, University of Edinburgh
1:30 PM
13B.1
Investigation of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model using the Climate Penalty Factor (CPF)
Linda Hembeck, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and T. Vinciguerra, R. J. Salawitch, and T. Canty

1:45 PM
13B.2
Assessment of High-Resolution Climate Extreme Indices over Europe Based on Daily Precipitation and Temperature Data (Raw and Bias-Adjusted) as Issued from an Ensemble of RCM CORDEX
Milka Radojevic, European Centre for Research and Advanced Training in Scientific Computation , Toulouse, France; and L. Bärring, G. Nikulin, M. Kolax, R. Wilcke, M. Juckes, C. Pagé, and N. Tatarinova
Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM
13B.3
Examining Changes in North Atlantic Extratropical Cyclones with Climate Change
Allison C. Michaelis, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and J. A. Willison, G. M. Lackmann, and W. A. Robinson
Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM
13B.4
The Sensitivity of WRF Downscaled Precipitation in Puerto Rico to Cumulus Parameterization and Interior Grid Nudging
Adrienne M. Wootten, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and J. H. Bowden, R. P. Boyles, and A. Terando
Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM
13B.5
Regional Climate Model Precipitation Projections for the Southern Great Plains
Melissa S. Bukovsky, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and A. Seth, R. McCrary, and L. O. Mearns
Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM
13B.6
Case Studies of the Impacts of Climate Change on Precipitation Organization in the SE US
Mark Nissenbaum, East Carolina University, Greenville, NC; and R. Ferreira and T. Rickenbach
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Session 13C
Topics in Climate Variability and Change: Part 1
Location: La Nouvelle C ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Host: 28th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Daniel J. Vimont, University of Wisconsin
1:30 PM
13C.1
The Response of Tropical Climate to Orbital, Ice Sheet, and Greenhouse Gas Forcing
Anthony J. Broccoli, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ; and M. P. Erb and B. Raney
Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM
13C.2
Distributions of Tropical Precipitation Cluster Power and Their Change Under Global Warming
Kevin M. Quinn, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and J. D. Neelin
Recorded Presentation

13C.3
The Origins of Itczs, Monsoons and Monsoon Onset—A Review

2:00 PM
13C.4
Building the World's Largest GHG Monitoring Network—Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow
Robert S. Marshall, Earth Networks, Germantown, MD; and W. Callahan
Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM
13C.5
Extratropical Cyclone Characteristics and Cloud Processes
James B. Polly, City College, New York, NY; and W. B. Rossow
Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM
13C.6
Comparison of Global Precipitation Estimates across a Range of Temporal and Spatial Scales
Maria Gehne, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA, Boulder, CO; and T. Hamill, G. N. Kiladis, and K. E. Trenberth
Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 14 January 2016


Coffee Break
Location: New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center

3:30 PM-5:00 PM: Thursday, 14 January 2016

Recording files available
Session 14A
Regional Climate Variability and Change: Part 4
Location: La Nouvelle A ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Host: 28th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Massimo A. Bollasina, University of Edinburgh
3:30 PM
14A.1
Recent Climate Change in the High Elevations of the Southern Appalachians
Ryan P. Shadbolt, Central Michigan University, Mt. Pleasant, MI
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (554.6 kB)

3:45 PM
14A.2
Climatology of November Snow Days in the Lake Michigan Region: Is the Decrease in Lake Michigan November Snowfall Frequency Mostly Due to Lake-Effect Snowfall, or Synoptic Systems?
Craig Clark, Valparaiso Univ., Valparaiso, IN; and K. Goebbert, B. Ganesh-Babu, R. Connelly, A. Young, E. Delap, K. Heinlein, A. VanDe Guchte, Z. Sefcovic, A. L. Caruthers, T. J. Elless, A. Lyza, S. Fingerle, D. Koning, A. Carne, A. Krull, K. M. Zigner, and M. Haynes
Recorded Presentation

4:00 PM
14A.3
One and a half centuries of rainfall variability in West Africa and its links to large-scale factors
Sharon E. Nicholson, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL

4:15 PM
14A.4
Moisture transport regimes associated with large-scale organized convection over subtropical South America
Kyle S. Mattingly, University of Georgia, Athens, GA; and T. Mote
Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM
14A.5
Significant Anthropogenic-Induced Changes of Climate Classes Since 1950
Duo Chan, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China; and Q. Wu
Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM
14A.6
Role of Radiatively Forced Temperature Changes in Enhanced Semi-Arid Warming over East Asia
Xiaodan Guan, College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China; and J. Huang and R. guo
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Session 14B
Topics in Climate Variability and Change: Part 2
Location: La Nouvelle C ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Host: 28th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Daniel J. Vimont, University of Wisconsin
3:30 PM
14B.1
Climatological Snow Cover Feedbacks to the Land-Atmosphere System
Ankur R. Desai, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and G. Bromley, M. Rydzik, J. E. Martin, S. Vavrus, and M. Notaro
Recorded Presentation

3:45 PM
14B.2
Boundary Layer Exposure as a Control in Elevation Dependent Warming
Eric P. Kelsey, Plymouth State University, Plymouth, NH; and G. Murray
Recorded Presentation

4:00 PM
14B.3
Changing Global Seasonal Onsets and Durations
Gwangyong Choi, Jeju National University, Jeju-si, South Korea; and D. A. Robinson

4:15 PM
14B.4
Remote Impacts of Lowland Urbanization on Orographic Cloud Properties
Brian Freitag, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and U. S. Nair
Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM
14B.5
Climate Warming and Land Cover Change
Felix Kogan, STAR, College Park, MD

4:45 PM
14B.6
The Effects of Reforestation on Temperature in the Southeast United States
Jennifer A. Blake, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and J. Nielsen-Gammon
Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM-5:05 PM: Thursday, 14 January 2016


AMS 96th Annual Meeting Adjourns
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