Currently we are participating in a coordinated effort together with the Ahmedabad Heat and Climate Study Group to produce 1) a heat preparedness plan and 2) an early warning system for Ahmedabad (Gujarat, India). The group is comprised of a series of U.S. and international partners such as the Ahmedabad municipality managers, Public Health Foundation of India (PHFI), Indian Institute of Public Health-Gandhinagar (IIPH-G), the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC), Emory University, the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, Georgia Institute of Technology and Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN) . Specifically, our group has been providing 7-day probabilistic maximum temperature guidance during the pre-monsoon hot season. During the Ahmadabad hot season and just prior to monsoon rainfall, maximum daily temperatures are on average around 41°C (106°F), with record values exceeding 46°C (~115°C). Record heat recently occurred in May 2010 leading to excessive mortality rates  and increased adverse health impacts to an already vulnerable population . A key element in our forecast methodology is distributional and mean bias corrections applied to the ECMWF Ensemble Forecast System, in which systematic model errors are removed using the ECMWF hindcasts and in-situ historical observations.
In this study, we provide a description of the synoptic setup for the extreme 2010 heat wave in west India, which motivated the development of the heat action plan in Ahmadabad, and a comparison relative to the 2015 Indian heat wave. The predictability of the 2010 heat event and of the 2013–2015 real-time forecasts produced for the heat action plan is also presented. It will be shown that the statistically-adjusted forecasts are skillful through 7 days in advance.
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