Session 7B Multi-model Predictability and Prediction on Subseasonal to Seasonal Timescales: Part 1

Wednesday, 13 January 2016: 8:30 AM-10:00 AM
La Nouvelle A ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Host: 28th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs:
Kathleen Pegion, George Mason University, COLA, Fairfax, VA; Emily J. Becker, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Climate Prediction Center - Innovim, College Park, MD and Hye-Mi Kim, SUNY, School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook, NY

The recent development of multi-¬‐model ensemble (MME) databases containing real-¬time and historical forecasts, such as the North American Multi-¬‐model Ensemble (NMME) and the WCRP/WWRP Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) project, provides an ideal opportunity to explore predictability and prediction on subseasonal to seasonal timescales. Furthermore, the multi-¬‐model ensemble approach has been shown to have superior average skill to any single model. We invite contributions that explore predictability and prediction using multiple models, including initialization strategies, optimal combination strategies, methods for calibration and correcting biases, skill assessments, predictability studies, understanding sources of skill, and identifying forecasts of opportunity.

Papers:
8:30 AM
7B.1
The Pacific Meridional Mode as an ENSO Precursor and Predictor in the North American Multimodel Ensemble
Sarah M. Larson, University of Miami RSMAS, Miami, FL; and B. Kirtman
Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM
7B.2
Multi-Model Ensemble for Seasonal Prediction at Environment Canada
Bertrand Denis, EC, Dorval, QC, Canada; and W. Merryfield
Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM
7B.3
Forecasting Temperature Extremes with the North American Multi-Model Ensemble
Emily J. Becker, NOAA/NWS/NCEP and Innovim, College Park, MD; and H. van den Dool
Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM
7B.4
Grand European and Asian-Pacific Multi-Model Seasonal Forecasts: Maximization of Skill and of Potential Economical Value to End-Users
Andrea Alessandri, Italian National Agency for New Technologies/Energy and Sustainable Economic Development, Santa Maria di Galeria, Italy; and M. De Felice, F. Catalano, D. Y. Lee, J. H. Yoo, J. Y. Lee, and B. Wang

9:30 AM
7B.5
Multivariate Correction and Statistical Disaggregation for Seasonal Multi-Model Ensemble Forecast Applications
J. Brent Roberts, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and F. R. Robertson

9:45 AM
7B.6
NMME Plans for Sub-seasonal Forecasts
Jin Huang, NOAA, College Park, MD; and K. Pegion and B. P. Kirtman
Recorded Presentation

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