Joint Session 13 Regional climate modeling predicting future changes in extreme precipitation events - Towards More Resilient Engineering Design

Wednesday, 13 January 2016: 8:30 AM-10:00 AM
Room 242 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 30th Conference on Hydrology; and the 28th Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
Francina Dominguez, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; Kelly Mahoney, CIRES/University of Colorado, Boulder, CO and Kenneth E. Kunkel, CICS, NOAA/NCEI, Asheville, NC

Extreme precipitation estimates used for engineering design of runoff control structures in the United States are largely based on a series of Hydrometeorological Reports by the National Weather Service which include storm data up to the 1970s. While the scientific community now has a better understanding of the physical processes responsible for extreme storms than it did in the 1970s, the application of this understanding to estimating design values has been lagging. Furthermore, given observed and future projected changes in precipitation extremes in a changing climate, the engineering design of hydraulic structures based solely on statistics of past observations is no longer defensible. Regional climate models (RCMs) can play an important role in downscaling global climate model information to the regional and local scale - at which local stakeholders and decision makers operate. In this session we solicit talks related to understanding historical characteristics/trends and future changes in extreme precipitation of relevance to engineering design, with a particular focus on the most extreme values - from 50-100-year return periods to Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) values. We welcome talks focusing on historical observations and new observational analyses, modeling (including mesoscale and cloud-resolving models), theoretical/dynamical constraints, and methods to convey uncertainty including actionable information for stakeholders. More general application of RCMs to hydrological, ecological, agricultural and water resources management problems, including the prediction of hydrologic extremes, are also welcome. Please contact the Program Organizers, Francina Dominguez (, Kelly Mahoney (, Kenneth Kunkel (, David Gochis (

8:30 AM
Hydrometeorological Analyses of the June 1903 Heppner, Oregon Flood
Jim Smith, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and M. L. Baeck
9:00 AM
CWRF Physics Ensemble Improving Extreme Precipitation Prediction
Xin-Zhong Liang, University of Maryland, College Park, MD
9:15 AM
9:45 AM
High Resolution Simulation of a Colorado Rockies Extreme Snow and Rain Event in both a Current and Future Climate
Roy M. Rasmussen, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and K. Ikeda, C. Liu, E. Gutmann, and J. M. Thériault
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