CWRF Physics Ensemble Improving Extreme Precipitation Prediction

The CWRF (Climate extension of the Weather Research and Forecasting model) incorporates a comprehensive ensemble of multiple alternate representations for major physical processes, including interactions among land–atmosphere–ocean, convection–microphysics-precipitation and cloud–aerosol–radiation. The CWRF has been demonstrated to produce significant skill enhancement for precipitation over the driving general circulation model operational seasonal forecasts or climate simulations. This study will exploit the potential for using CWRF with an optimized physics ensemble approach to improve extreme precipitation prediction over the U.S. It will present the result as driven by the observational reanalysis to illustrate the added value of the CWRF downscaling and the further enhancement by its physics ensemble. The CWRF downscaling also improves the current climate simulation and projects different future climate change than the driving general circulation model outcome. The presentation will focus on extreme precipitation events, including dry spells, droughts, heavy rainfalls, and floods.