Regional Climate Model Precipitation Projections for the Southern Great Plains

In this presentation we will provide an overview of the precipitation changes projected for the southern Great Plains by mid-Century in the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) suite of 12 regional climate model (RCM) simulations. Our analysis focuses on spring and summer in the region, covering the typical April-June convective period through the July-August dry period. We examine changes in mean and extreme precipitation, including changes in severe convective environments for the spring, as well as shifts in the seasonality of precipitation. Our analysis covering the many factors/processes effecting the precipitation projections will also be summarized. These include larger-scale circulation changes and land-surface feedbacks.