Evaluating the WRF-EMS Performance During the 2015 Winter Weather Events across Northern Louisiana

Three unprecedented winter weather events impacted Northern Louisiana between February 23rd and March 5th, 2015. Shreveport's historical records, which date back to 1872, indicated there have never been three winter storms occurring within a ten-day period since the record began. Given the proximity of Northern Louisiana to the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, significant winter weather events are usually short-lived, as warmer, above freezing temperatures quickly return in wake of winter storms. Although the March 4th and 5th winter storm was relatively short-lived, it developed in a cold arctic air environment established ahead of an upper air disturbance.

This study makes use of the Weather Research and Forecasting Environmental Modeling System (WRF-EMS) with varying nested domains to model these three winter storms. We will evaluate the WRF EMS' performance, using initial and lateral boundary conditions from the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) (3km) and Global Forecast System (GFS) (13 km), as compared to what actually occurred.