6.2 National Blend Of Models: Transformational Forecast Change by the National Weather Service

Wednesday, 13 January 2016: 1:45 PM
Room 255/257 ( New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Mark A. Tew, NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and A. Stern, A. Horvitz, K. Gilbert, and D. T. Myrick

NOAA's National Weather Service (NWS) is initiating a comprehensive transformation of the gridded forecast process over the next few years. It begins with development of a National Blend of Models (NBM) to create gridded forecast elements as guidance to NWS National Centers and local Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs). The NBM will produce a nationally consistent and skillful suite of calibrated forecast guidance from a blend of both NWS and non-NWS models for issuance of forecasts at the WFOs, and the National Centers. This development will leverage evolving state-of-the-science data assimilation analyses (for calibration and verification), ensemble guidance which enables the estimation of uncertainty in the forecast, and emerging statistical post processing techniques to calibrate and blend model output and make the forecast guidance more useful.

The next step will be to develop the NBM forecast process by utilizing calibrated forecast guidance as input for the weather elements contained in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD). Initially, the emphasis will be on the medium range period (Days 3–8), before expanding into the short term forecast range (Days 1 - 2) with the incorporation of mesoscale models. The ultimate goal is to provide a consistent, consensus forecast using the latest modeling efforts from initialization of the grids through Day 8. This process will also provide greater forecaster flexibility for collaboration with our partners to provide impact-based Decision Support Services. This presentation will describe the proposed transformational forecast change possible over the next several years.

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