815 Transitioning NCAR's Aviation Algorithms into NCEP's Operations

Wednesday, 13 January 2016
Hui-ya Chuang, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, MD; and Y. Mao

Handout (530.8 kB)

Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) has been collaborating with National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) to transition their highly regarded aviation algorithms into NCEP's operations. The strategy involves incorporating these algorithms into EMC's Unified Post Processor (UPP). There are several advantages to derive operational aviation products in UPP: 1) the products are derived on highest resolution horizontal and vertical grids for better accuracy; 2) higher efficiency and hence faster delivery can be achieved by reducing IO motion and using existing parallel framework; 3) probabilistic global aviation products can also be generated as Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) also uses UPP.

The NCAR's in-flight Icing forecast algorithm was incorporated into UPP in 2012. EMC soon started a parallel to generate new experimental Global Forecast Icing products daily for EMC's and users' evaluation. The two years of verification results indicated this new product outperformed older version of Global Forecast Icing products. Therefore, it was implemented into NCEP operations in January 2015 along with Global Forecast System (GFS) upgrade.

As part of this collaboration effort, EMC will also implement Global Icing Analysis product into operations in Fall of 2015. This product uses GFS analysis or 3 hour forecast, along with Global Geostationary Composite data, METAR data, as well as optional radar, PIREPS, and lightning data, to derive Icing Analysis every three hours. It has been used as verifying truth for EMC's and UK's Global Forecast Icing products and will be used for calibration of Forecast Icing products.

This paper will describe methodology on how EMC transitioned Global Forecast Icing and Global Icing Analysis products into NCEP operations. It will also show the objective and subjective validation results of Global Forecast Icing products. Lastly, it will outline EMC's ongoing efforts to transition NCAR's turbulence algorithm and to develop global probabilistic aviation products.

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