814 The 3rd Annual Flash Flood and Intense Rainfall Experiment Advancements & Successes

Wednesday, 13 January 2016
Sarah Perfater, I. M. Systems Group, College Park, MD; and B. Albright, T. E. Workoff, F. Barthold, M. J. Bodner, S. Jacobs, M. Klein, B. Cosgrove, and D. R. Novak

The 3rd Annual Flash Flood and Intense Rainfall Experiment (FFaIR) provided a real-time environment in which participants from across the weather enterprise worked together to explore the utility of emerging model guidance for improving flash flood forecasts. Given the short-term nature of these forecasts, this year's experiment emphasized the rapid incorporation of the latest observational and model guidance into the decision making process while also challenging participants to simulate the collaboration that occurs between the national centers and local forecast offices during flash flood events. This collaboration included a simulation of the issuance of the operational Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion for near-term high-impact flooding and post-event verification.

The FFaIR Experiment serves to evaluate ways to maximize the utility of high resolution convection-allowing models and ensembles for short-term flash flood forecasts, identify the most effective forms and proper usage of available hydrologic guidance for the prediction of flash floods, and explore proposed changes to WPC's operational Excessive Rainfall Outlook by analyzing impacts-based messaging of probabilistic flash flood forecasts. In 2015, technological and logistical improvements were successfully implemented to enhance cross-testbed collaboration for both observational and forecast briefings and the utilization of GIS file sharing to bridge platform inconsistencies across the National Centers, WFOs and RFCs. Additionally, this year's FFaIR Experiment participants gained value from technical presentations by both visiting and host experts among the operational forecasting, research, and academic communities uniting to share tools, techniques and guidance which directly address the challenges of flash flood forecasting.

The 3rd Annual Flash Flood and Intense Rainfall Experiment built upon the momentum of previous experiments with enhancements including new and improved guidance, tools and enterprise-wide collaboration directly addressing the challenges of flash flood forecasting and decision support. This presentation will highlight the results and outline our path ahead for improved prediction of extreme precipitation events.

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