The NWS's Fire Weather service program has a long history of tracking performance by manually verifying its forecast and warning products. Because of the products and the observational elements needed to verify those products, the NWS never created a fully automated performance tracking program that required little or no manual intervention. With the expanding number of fire weather products and observations being disseminated and made available in recent years, the NWS now finds itself in a position to automate performance tracking of these products.
The NWS has identified the National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) forecasts, Red Flag Warnings (RFW), and Fire Weather Spot Forecasts (FWS) as products in which performance tracking may be automated based on observations and existing verification methodologies. The NWS also identified Incident Meteorologist (IMET) dispatch timeliness as the initial area in which automated performance tracking should begin.
This presentation will provide an overview of the efforts currently underway within the NWS to develop a fire weather performance management suite. Specifically, it will address efforts to transfer the Joint Fire Science Program Spot Forecast Verification Project's to operations at the NWS, development of an IMET Dispatch and Incident Management Tool, the modernization and relaunching of the NWS's NFDRS verification program, and automation of RFW verification.