Transitioning NCAR's Aviation Algorithms into NCEP's Operations

As part of ongoing effort to improve global aviation safety, Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) has been collaborating with National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) to transition their aviation algorithms into NCEP’s operations.  In 2009, NCEP started distributing global operational gridded in flight icing, turbulence and convective cloud products free to all countries that are subscribed to International Civilian Aviation Organization (ICAO) service.   These products are essential to developing countries that do not have resource to run numerical models themselves.

NCAR’s aviation algorithms have been coupled with Rapid Refresh (RR) Model to provide NOAA Aviation Weather Center (AWC) with important guidance on in-flight icing and turbulence forecast over CONUS for over a decade.  Therefore, EMC proposed to incorporate these algorithms into its Unified Post Processor (UPP) due to several additional advantages: 1) aviation algorithms can be easily adapted for all operational models supported by UPP, including Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS); 2) UPP will derive aviation products on highest resolution model grid.  The proposal was quickly supported by NOAA, NCAR, and FAA and EMC started generating experimental NCAR-based Global Forecast Icing Potential (G-FIP) products in 2011.  After three years of positive evaluation, G-FIP was implemented operationally in January 2015.  Global Forecast Icing Severity (G-FIS) and Global Current Icing Potential (G-CIP) products were also implemented in May 2016 along with GFS upgrade. The probabilistic Icing Forecast product will be implemented in 2017 and NCAR based Global Turbulence Product is scheduled to be implemented in 2018.

This paper will describe the methodology which EMC used to transition NCAR’s aviation algorithms into NCEP’s operations.  It will also show objective and subjective validation results, current progress, and finally future collaboration plan.