Program: 18th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology (97th American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting)

Coffee Break (6th Floor Foyer)

Location: Washington State Convention Center

Session 1

Advances in Numerical Weather Prediction in Support of Aviation Operations

Location: Conference Center: Skagit 2 (Washington State Convention Center )

Host: 18th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology

Cochairs: Matt Fronzak, The MITRE Corporation; Cecilia Miner, NOAA/NWS

11:00 AM

1.1

Applying Probabilistic Aviation Forecast Grids from the LAMP/HRRR Meld

Adam D. Schnapp, NOAA/NWS/Meteorological Development Laboratory and KBRwyle, Silver Spring, MD; and B. Glahn and J. E. Ghirardelli

Recorded Presentation

Handout (6.4 MB)

11:15 AM

1.2

A Rapidly-updating LAMP System for Very Short-range Ceiling Height and Visibility Forecast Guidance

Judy E. Ghirardelli, NOAA/NWS/Meteorological Development Laboratory, Silver Spring, MD; and B. Glahn, G. Sindic-Rancic, A. D. Schnapp, and F. R. Guarriello

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

1.3

An Overview of the Enterprise Integrated Aviation Weather System – Regional Rapid-Refresh Modeling Platform

José M. García-Rivera, I. M. Systems Group, Rockville, MD; and J. Cheng, Y. Li, and L. Jiang

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

1.4

Rap and HRRR Model/Assimilation System Improvements for Aviation Weather Applications: Latest Upgrades and Ongoing Work

Stephen S. Weygandt, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and C. R. Alexander, S. G. Benjamin, J. M. Brown, T. G. Smirnova, M. Hu, J. Kenyon, J. B. Olson, D. C. Dowell, E. James, and I. Jankov

Recorded Presentation

Lunch Break

Lecture 1

Walter Orr Roberts Lecture

Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 2 (Washington State Convention Center )

Hosts: (Joint between the 33rd Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 31st Conference on Hydrology; the 29th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; the 26th Symposium on Education; the 21st Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface; the 19th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 18th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the 15th Conference on Artificial and Computational Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences; the 15th Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 14th Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography; the 14th Conference on Space Weather; the 13th Annual Symposium on New Generation Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the Major Weather Impacts of 2016; the 12th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the Ninth Symposium on Aerosol–Cloud–Climate Interactions; the Eighth Conference on Weather, Climate, Water and the New Energy Economy; the Eighth Conference on Environment and Health; the Eighth Symposium on Lidar Atmospheric Applications; the Eighth Conference on the Meteorological Application of Lightning Data; the Seventh Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the Seventh Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using Python; the Fifth Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; the Fifth Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation: Enhancing Our Nation’s Readiness, Responsiveness, and Resilience to High Impact Weather Events; the Fifth Symposium on Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Processes, Prediction and Impact; the Second Symposium on US-International Partnerships; and the 13th Symposium of the Urban Environment )

Speaker: Cynthia Rosenzweig, NASA

1:30 PM

L1.1

Developing Climate Risk Information for Cities: Key Findings from UCCRN ARC3.2

Cynthia Rosenzweig, NASA, New York City, NY

Recorded Presentation

Session 2

Understanding and Mitigating the Impact of Convective Weather on Aviation Operations

Location: Conference Center: Skagit 2 (Washington State Convention Center )

Host: 18th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology

Cochairs: Mike Robinson, The MITRE Corporation; Frank C. Brody, NOAA/NWS

1:30 PM

2.1

The Federal Aviation Administration's Convective Weather Research Program

Randall Bass, FAA, Washington, DC

Recorded Presentation

Handout (1.9 MB)

1:45 PM

2.2

Using Model Ensemble-based Uncertainty Information to Blend Modeled and Extrapolated Forecasts of Convection

James O. Pinto, NCAR/Research Applications Laboratory, Boulder, CO; and J. A. Grim, D. Albo, M. Steiner, and H. Iskendarian

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

2.3

Exploring New Variants of the Experimental CDM Convective Forecast Planning (CCFP) Guidance

Steven A. Lack, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Aviation Weather Center, Kansas City, MO; and B. R. J. Schwedler

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

2.4

Experimental Upgraded LAMP Convection and Total lightning Probability and "Potential" Guidance for CONUS

Jerome P. Charba, Meteorological Development Laboratory, Silver Spring, MD; and F. G. Samplatsky, P. E. Shafer, J. E. Ghirardelli, and A. J. Kochenash

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1000.5 kB)

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

Location: 4E (Washington State Convention Center )

Poster Session 1

ARAM Posters - Aviation Weather Policy, Convection and Forecast Processes

Host: 18th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology

206

Overview of the RTCA SC-206 "Guidance for the Usage of Data Linked Forecast and Current Wind Information in Air Traffic Management (ATM) Operations" Document

Amanda Hoprich, AvMet Applications, Inc., Washington, DC; and E. Frazier

Handout (1.2 MB) Handout (27.8 kB)

207

Changes Included in Amendment 78 to Annex 3: "Meteorological Service for International Air Navigation"

Steven Albersheim, FAA, Washington, DC; and M. K. Peterson, T. J. Helms Jr., L. Burch, and T. P. Kiley Jr.

208

Establishing the Provision of Space Weather Information in Support of International Air Navigation

209

NOAA National Weather Service Headquarters Partnering with the International Aviation Community

Cecilia Miner, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and M. Graf and C. Sims

Handout (1.6 MB)

210

Convective Weather Constraint Awareness for Southeast Asia

John Huhn, The MITRE Corporation, McLean, VA

211

An Update on the Convective Diagnosis Oceanic Algorithm

Cathy Kessinger, NCAR, Boulder, CO

Handout (3.5 MB)

212

Forecasting Hail Aloft

Donald W. McCann, McCann Aviation Weather Research, Inc., Overland Park, KS

Manuscript (2.1 MB)

213

Expanding the Impact-Based Decision Support Advisory for Use in the National Air Space: Non-Convective Collaborative Aviation Weather Statement

Amy E. Bettwy, NOAA/NWS/Aviation Weather Center, Kansas City, MO; and S. A. Lack

214

Unifying In-flight and Terminal Aviation Forecasts

Cammye Sims, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and T. L. Hansen, T. J. LeFebvre, and N. Hardin

215

Use of Observational Data to Aid in Aviation Forecasting

Melissa Di Spigna, NWS, Upton, NY

216

NWS Support to the National Airspace: Coordination, Consistency, Collaboration, Customization, Consultation, Confidence

Frank C. Brody, NOAA/NWS, Warrenton, VA

Handout (9.7 MB)

Session 3

Advances in Ensemble Techniques in Support of Aviation Operations

Location: Conference Center: Skagit 2 (Washington State Convention Center )

Host: 18th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology

Cochairs: Le Jiang, IMSG; James Pinto, NCAR

4:00 PM

3.1

Ensemble Prediction with the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR): Providing Probabilistic Forecasts of Weather Hazards for Aviation

Curtis R. Alexander, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and T. Alcott, I. Jankov, S. Weygandt, and S. G. Benjamin

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

3.2

Improving Deterministic Time-Lagged Ensemble Forecasts By Applying Blended Nowcasts

Yunsung Hwang, Pukyong National University, Busan, Korea, Republic of (South); and D. I. Lee, A. J. Clark, and C. H. You

Recorded Presentation

Handout (9.6 MB)

4:30 PM

3.3

Use Data Assimilation to Reduce Uncertainties in Ensemble Forecasting for Strategic Traffic Flow Management

Huang Tang, MITRE, McLean, VA; and E. P. Vargo, P. D. Horn, D. C. Wanke, and S. L. Tien

4:45 PM

3.4

Ensemble Prediction of Oceanic Convective Hazards

Ken Stone, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. O. Pinto, M. Steiner, C. J. Kessinger, C. P. Kalb, and M. Strahan

Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM

3.5

Ensemble-Based Forecast Indices for Area Forecast Using the Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction System in JMA

Atsushi Kudo, JMA, Tokyo, Japan

Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM

3.6

NCEP's Global Icing Ensemble Prediction and Its Evaluation

Binbin Zhou, EMC, College Park, MD; and Y. Mao, H. Y. Chuang, and Y. Zhu

Recorded Presentation

Handout (2.7 MB)

Joint Session 7

International Applications: Global Initiatives for MultiHazard Impact Based Science to Services including Volcanic Ash

Location: 611 (Washington State Convention Center )

Hosts: (Joint between the 33rd Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 18th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; and the Second Symposium on US-International Partnerships )

Cochairs: Ian Lisk, UKMO; Baudouin Raoult, ECMWF

4:00 PM

J7.1

Critical Infrastructures and Risk Assessment for Climate Change

Alex Coletti, SM Resources Corp., Ashburn, VA; and A. De Nicola, M. L. Villani, and T. DeFelice

Recorded Presentation

Handout (1.2 MB)

4:15 PM

J7.2

Evaluating User Needs for the Provision of Global Volcanic Hazard Information (Including SO2, and Other Volcanic Gases)

Steven Albersheim, FAA, Washington, DC; and L. Burch, T. J. Helms Jr., and T. P. Kiley Jr.

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

J7.3

Using Decision Theory to Classify Volcanic Ash Hazards

Luke M Western, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom; and M. Watson and P. Francis

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

J7.4

Real Time Modeling of Volcanic Clouds and Applications to Air Traffic Flow Algorithms

Eric J. Hughes, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and N. A. Krotkov, A. Da Silva, R. Hoffman, and T. Myers

Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM

J7.5

New USGS Tools to Analyze and Forecast Volcanic Ash Hazards

Larry G. Mastin, USGS, Vancouver, WA; and H. F. Schwaiger, D. J. Schneider, M. J. Randall, R. P. Denlinger, and M. Guffanti

Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM

J7.6

An Overview of RSTASH Performance in Detecting and Tracking Ash Clouds Using Polar and Geostationary Satellite Data

Francesco Marchese, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Tito Scalo, Italy; and N. Pergola, A. Falconieri, C. Filizzola, and V. Tramutoli

Reception and Exhibits Opening

Location: 4AB (Washington State Convention Center )

Session 4

Understanding and Mitigating the Impact of Turbulence on Aviation Operations

Location: Conference Center: Skagit 2 (Washington State Convention Center )

Host: 18th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology

Cochairs: Timothy H. Miner, Allied Pilots Association; Melissa K. Peterson, AvMet Applications Inc.

4.1

Transitioning Turbulence Research Into Airline Operations

8:30 AM

4.2

Analysis of Turbulence Encounters and Impacts in the National Airspace System

Rafal Kicinger, Metron Aviation, Inc., Dulles, VA; and J. T. Chen, T. Myers, and G. O'Keeffe

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

4.3

Diagnosis of Turbulence Associated with Convection As Part of the Graphical Turbulence Guidance Product

Wiebke Deierling, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. D. Sharman, J. Prestopnik, and G. Meymaris

9:00 AM

4.4

In-Cloud Turbulence As Identified By the Nexrad Turbulence Detection Algorithm (NTDA)

Julia M. Pearson, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. D. Sharman, W. Deierling, and G. Meymaris

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

4.5

Global Aviation Turbulence Forecasting Techniques and Verification

Robert D. Sharman, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. H. Kim

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

4.6

Inter-comparison of Upper-Level Turbulence Forecasts using Graphical Turbulence Guidance (GTG) on GFS and UM models

Bartholomew Claire, UKMO, Exeter, United Kingdom; and J. H. Kim, J. C. H. Cheung, P. Buchanan, M. Strahan, J. W. Scheck, and R. D. Sharman

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

4.1A

Evaluation of the Global Korean Aviation Turbulence Guidance System (G-KTG) Using the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA)'s Global Unified Model (UM)

Dan-Bi Lee, Yonsei Univ., Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and H. Y. Chun and J. H. Kim

Coffee Break

Location: 4AB (Washington State Convention Center )

Session 5

Understanding and Mitigating the Impact of Turbulence and Icing on Aviation Operations

Location: Conference Center: Skagit 2 (Washington State Convention Center )

Host: 18th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology

Cochairs: Timothy H. Miner, Allied Pilots Association; James O. Pinto, NCAR/Research Applications Laboratory

10:30 AM

5.1

Updates of Upper-Level Turbulence Forecasts by Reducing Unphysical Topography with Hybrid Vertical Coordinate in WRF Model

Jung-Hoon Kim, CIRA, Kansas City, MO; and S. H. Park, R. D. Sharman, and J. Klemp

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

5.2

Prediction and Warning of Transported Convective Turbulence in Long-Haul Aircraft Operations

Gary P. Ellrod, WxOps, Inc, Granby, CT; and S. T. Shipley, A. Peterlin, and M. Spence

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (917.0 kB)

11:00 AM

5.3

Regional Observations of Convectively-Induced Turbulence from Varied Resolution Full-Physics Models

Katelyn A. Barber, University of North Dakota, Grand Forks, ND; and G. L. Mullendore and M. J. Alexander

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (749.3 kB)

11:15 AM

5.4

Anomalously Cold Icing Conditions within Atmospheric River Winter Storms along the West Coast of North America

Frank McDonough, DRI, Reno, NV; and D. R. Adriaansen, K. N. Shourd, and K. Texeira

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

5.5

An Evaluation of Model-based Icing Forecasts of a Supercooled Large Drop Icing Event Using Detailed In Situ Measurements

Sarah A. Tessendorf, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. R. Adriaansen, C. L. Williams, J. R. French, D. Jacobson, B. Geerts, B. Pokharel, C. Weeks, D. Serke, G. Cunning, and C. Alexander

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

5.6

An Analysis of Synoptic and Mesoscale Features Related to Aircraft Icing in Alaska

Brian Hagenbuch, NWS, Anchorage, AK

Lunch Break

Session 6

The Integration of Weather Information into Aviation Decision Making

Location: Conference Center: Skagit 2 (Washington State Convention Center )

Host: 18th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology

Cochairs: Mike Robinson, AvMet Applications Inc.; Melissa K. Peterson, AvMet Applications Inc.

1:30 PM

6.1

Weather Event Detection and Advisory

Robert Avjian, MITRE, McLean, VA; and M. Fronzak

Recorded Presentation

Handout (2.5 MB)

1:45 PM

6.2

INSITE: Convective Weather Decision Support

Melissa A. Petty, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRA, Boulder, CO; and G. J. Layne, M. S. Wandishin, P. Hamer, M. Rabellino, and B. J. Etherton

Recorded Presentation

6.3

Strategic Forecasts of TRACON Airspace Capacity during Convective Weather Impacts

2:15 PM

6.4

Tradeoffs in Flight Routing under Consideration of Multiple Weather Hazards

Manuela Sauer, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. Steiner, R. D. Sharman, J. O. Pinto, and D. R. Adriaansen

Recorded Presentation

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

Location: 4E (Washington State Convention Center )

Poster Session 2

ARAM Posters - Data Processes, Icing and Turbulence

Host: 18th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology

705

A Nexrad-Based Dual-Polarization in-Flight Icing Algorithm Compared to Research Flight Data

706

Evaluation of the Algorithm for Prediction of High Ice Water Content Areas (ALPHA): Methods and Results

Allyson Rugg, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. A. Haggerty, G. P. McCabe Jr., C. Kessinger, J. W. Strapp, and J. Delanoë

707

Assessing the Ability of WRF to Simulate Wintertime Near-Surface Icing Conditions over the Southwestern United States

Steven E. Peckham, U.S. Army, Hanover, NH; and S. L. LeGrand and K. F. Jones

708

Establishing an Operational Baseline for Severe Clear Air Turbulence Indices

Liam Lynam, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/AWC, Kansas City, MO; and B. P. Pettegrew, B. Entwistle, and S. Silberberg

709

Enhancing High Level Turbulence Forecasts With Simulated Water Vapor

Karen Eagle, NOAA, Kansas CIty, MO

710

An Analysis of Two Decades of Turbulence Impacts to Commercial Aviation

Timothy H. Miner, Allied Pilots Association, Fort Worth, TX; and D. Eick

Poster 711 has been moved. New paper number is 4.1A.

712

Flow Regimes of a Continuously Stratified Flow over a Mesoscale Mountain and their Impacts on Aviation Turbulence

Yuh-Lang Lin, North Carolina A&T State Univ., Greensboro, NC; and R. D. Sharman, G. A. Villamil-Otero, and G. Sever

Handout (3.4 MB)

713

Collaborative Digital Aviation Grid Process at the Aviation Weather Testbed and Operations Proving Ground

Austin Cross, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Aviation Weather Center, Kansas City, MO; and B. R. J. Schwedler, S. A. Lack, J. W. Scheck, K. J. Runk, C. M. Gravelle, D. W. Snyder, K. L. Crandall, and C. S. Uskievich

Handout (31.5 MB)

714

The Development of Data Assimilation System for the Regional Rapid-Refresh Model within the Enterprise Integrated Aviation Weather System

Jing Cheng, IMSG, Rockville, MD; and S. Liu, Y. Li, L. Jiang, and J. M. García-Rivera

Handout (1.5 MB)

715

The Use of Observations in the Transition of Research Aviation Weather Products into Operations

Arlene Laing, CIRA and NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and K. R. Fenton, M. S. Wandishin, G. J. Layne, M. A. Petty, and L. Paulik

Handout (4.4 MB)

Joint Session 2

Advances in the Use of Artificial Intelligence Techniques in Support of Aviation, Range and Aerospace Operations

Location: Conference Center: Skagit 2 (Washington State Convention Center )

Hosts: (Joint between the 18th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; and the 15th Conference on Artificial and Computational Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences )

Cochairs: Jason C. Knievel, NCAR; Haig Iskenderian, MIT Lincoln Laboratory

4:00 PM

J2.1

Potentials of Using Neural Networks for Bias Corrections

Vladimir M. Krasnopolsky, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, MD; and Y. Fan

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

J2.2

Using Convolutional Neural Networks to Create Radar-like Precipitation Analyses for Aviation

Mark S. Veillette, FAA, Washington, DC; and E. P. Hassey, C. J. Mattioli, H. Iskenderian, and P. M. Lamey

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

J2.3

Forecasting Low-Visibility Conditions at Vienna Airport with Tree-Based Statistical Models

Sebastian Josef Dietz, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria; and P. Kneringer, G. J. Mayr, and A. Zeileis

Recorded Presentation

J2.4

Creating Probabilistic Flight Category Forecasts in Alaska using non-linear Multiple Discriminate Analysis

4:45 PM

J2.5

WSR-88D Chaff Detection and Characterization using an Optimized Hydrometeor Classification Algorithm

James M. Kurdzo, MIT Lincoln Laboratory, Lexington, MA; and B. J. Bennett, M. S. Veillette, D. J. Smalley, E. R. Williams, and M. F. Donovan

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (2.1 MB)

5:00 PM

J2.6

A Neural Network Emulator for Microphysics Schemes

Vladimir Krasnopolsky, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and J. Middlecoff, J. Beck, I. Geresdi, and Z. Toth

Recorded Presentation

Session 7

Understanding and Mitigating the Impact of Icing on Aviation Operations

Location: Conference Center: Skagit 1 (Washington State Convention Center )

Host: 18th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology

Cochairs: Matthias Steiner, NCAR; Steve Abelman, FAA

4:00 PM

7.1

An Overview of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Terminal Area Icing Weather Information for NextGen (TAIWIN) Project

Stephanie DiVito, FAA, Atlantic City International Airport, NJ; and J. T. Riley

4:15 PM

7.2

Towards Improving Representation of Sub-Grid-Scale Clouds in WRF and Application to Aircraft Icing Forecasts

Gregory Thompson, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. Xu and P. A. Jimenez

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

7.3

Using Precipitation Type Weather Reports to Assess Select Operational Numerical Weather Prediction Models for Terminal Area Icing Weather Information for Nextgen (TAIWIN)

Jamie K. Wolff, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. Harrold, T. Hertneky, K. Ikeda, J. Halley Gotway, and T. L. Fowler

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

7.4

Detection of High Ice Water Content (HIWC) Conditions: Status of Nowcasting Tool Development for Avoidance of Ice Crystal Icing Events

Julie A. Haggerty, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and A. Rugg, G. P. McCabe Jr., C. Kessinger, J. W. Strapp, R. J. Potts, and R. Palikonda

Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM

7.5

A Comparison of Forecast Icing Product Based Cloud Identification Using the HRRR and the RAP

Daniel R. Adriaansen, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. L. Williams, S. A. Tessendorf, J. A. Haggerty, and G. Cunning

Recorded Presentation

7.6

A Revised Met Office Icing Potential Algorithm for the World Area Forecast System

Joint Session 3

Unmanned Aerial Systems: Environmental Monitoring and Impacts on Operations (Joint between the 18th Conf on Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology and the Special Symposium on Meteorological Observations and Instrumentation)

Location: Conference Center: Skagit 2 (Washington State Convention Center )

Host: 18th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology

Cochairs: Matthias Steiner, NCAR; C. Bruce Baker, NOAA

8:30 AM

J3.1

Exploring the Range of Weather Impacts on UAS Operations

Emily Ranquist, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and M. Steiner

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (596.5 kB)

8:45 AM

J3.2

Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) Structure Influences on the Functionality of Airborne Sense and Avoid (ABSAA) and Ground Based Sense and Avoid (GBSAA) Systems for Small Unmanned Aircraft Systems (sUASs)

Rosa A Brothman, University of North Dakota, Grand Forks, ND; and M. Askelson

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

J3.3

Forecasting Turbulence within the Atmospheric Boundary Layer in support of Unmanned Aerial System Operations

Domingo Muñoz-Esparza, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. D. Sharman

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

J3.4

Use of Micro-UAS for Estimation of Turbulent Surface Fluxes of Heat and Moisture

Gijs de Boer, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and D. A. Lawrence, N. Curry, W. Finamore, B. Schmid, J. Hubbe, M. Hubbel, M. Hubbel, A. Bendure, G. Maclean, and S. Semmer

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

J3.5

Assessment of Lower Boundary Layer Characteristics during Pre- and Post-Harvest Conditions Using Unmanned Aerial Systems

Jamie L. Dyer, Mississippi State Univ., Mississippi State, MS; and L. Wasson

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

J3.6

Probing the Surface Layer over the Gulf Stream with the Controlled Towed Vehicle: Unique High-Resolution Turbulence Measurements

Djamal Khelif, University of California, Irvine, CA; and J. Barge, H. Jonsson, Q. Wang, and R. Yamaguchi

Coffee Break

Location: 4AB (Washington State Convention Center )

Session 8

Understanding and Mitigating the Impacts of Clouds, Visibility and Winter Weather on Aviation Operations

Location: Conference Center: Skagit 2 (Washington State Convention Center )

Host: 18th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology

Cochairs: Judy E. Ghirardelli, NOAA/NWS/Meteorological Development Laboratory; Steven A. Lack, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Aviation Weather Center

10:30 AM

8.1

Recent Improvements to Ceiling and Visibility Forecasts in the RAP and HRRR Models

Jaymes Kenyon, NOAA/ESRL and CIRES, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and T. T. Ladwig, J. B. Olson, J. M. Brown, S. G. Benjamin, C. Alexander, and S. S. Weygandt

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

8.2

Cloud and Visibility Guidance Research in the Aviation Weather Testbed

Benjamin R. J. Schwedler, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Aviation Weather Center & CIRA, Kansas City, MO; and S. A. Lack and A. Cross

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

8.3

The London Model: forecasting fog at 333m resolution

Ian A. Boutle, Met Office, Exeter, UK; and A. Finnenkoetter, P. Buchanan, and T. Howard

11:15 AM

8.4

Impacts of the Implementation of the Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) on the Reports of Precipitation Type in Airport Terminal Areas Around the United States

Scott D. Landolt, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and A. J. Schwartz, A. Gaydos, and S. DiVito

11:30 AM

8.5

Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts of Precipitation Type at European Airports

Jaakko Nuottokari, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland; and K. Ylinen, J. Kauhanen, S. Neiglick, J. Ylläsjärvi, and J. Kilpinen

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

8.6

Meso-Gamma and Microscale Variability of Snowfall Rate Across an Airport Terminal Area

Andrew J. Schwartz, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and S. D. Landolt, J. Cyccone, A. Jachcik, A. Gaydos, R. K. Goodrich, and S. DiVito

Recorded Presentation

Lunch Break

Joint Panel Discussion 1

Airborne Observations-Mandatory or Voluntary?

Location: 611 (Washington State Convention Center )

Hosts: (Joint between the 33rd Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; and the 18th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology )

Panelists: Stan Benjamin, NOAA/ESRL; Curtis H. Marshall, NWS; Neil A. Jacobs, Panasonic Avionics Corporation; Joe Burns, Sensurion Aerospace; Jeannine Hendricks, Rockwell Collins/ARINC; Rick Curtis, Southwest Airlines

Cochairs: Matt Fronzak, The MITRE Corporation; Randall Bass, FAA

1:30 PM

Panelist

Stan Benjamin, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO

Recorded Presentation

1:30 PM

Panelist

Curtis H. Marshall, NWS, Silver Spring, MD

1:30 PM

Panelist

Neil A. Jacobs, Panasonic Avionics Corporation, Lake Forest, CA

1:30 PM

Panelist

Joe Burns, Sensurion Aerospace

1:30 PM

Panelist

Jeannine Hendricks, Rockwell Collins/ARINC, Annapolis, MD

1:30 PM

Panelist

Rick Curtis, Southwest Airlines, Dallas, TX

Lecture 2

Horton Lecture

Location: 602 (Washington State Convention Center )

Hosts: (Joint between the 20th Conference of Atmospheric Science Librarians International; the Second Symposium on Multi-scale Atmospheric Predictability; the Observation Symposium: Progress, Problems, and Prospects; the 33rd Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 29th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; the 26th Symposium on Education; the 21st Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface; the 19th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 18th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the 15th Conference on Artificial and Computational Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences; the 15th Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 14th Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography; the 14th Conference on Space Weather; the 13th Annual Symposium on New Generation Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the Major Weather Impacts of 2016; the 13th Symposium of the Urban Environment; the 12th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the Ninth Symposium on Aerosol–Cloud–Climate Interactions; the Eighth Conference on Weather, Climate, Water and the New Energy Economy; the Eighth Conference on Environment and Health; the Eighth Symposium on Lidar Atmospheric Applications; the Eighth Conference on the Meteorological Application of Lightning Data; the Seventh Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the 31st Conference on Hydrology; the Fifth Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; the Fifth Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation: Enhancing Our Nation’s Readiness, Responsiveness, and Resilience to High Impact Weather Events; the Fifth AMS Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the Fifth Symposium on Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Processes, Prediction and Impact; the Third Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate; the Special Symposium on Greening the Built Environment; and the Events )

Organizer: John B. Eylander, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

Lecturer: Hoshin V. Gupta, Univ. of Arizona

Cochairs: Michael Ek, NOAA; David J. Gochis, NCAR; John N. McHenry, Baron Advanced Meteorological Systems, LLC

1:30 PM

L2.1

Learning with Models & Data: A Maximum Entropy Approach (Invited Presentation)

Hoshin V. Gupta, Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (57.5 kB)

Handout (13.3 MB)

Session 9

Weather Information for the Pilot and Controller

Location: Conference Center: Skagit 2 (Washington State Convention Center )

Host: 18th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology

Cochairs: Bruce Carmichael, NCAR; Robert Avjian, The MITRE Corporation

1:30 PM

9.1

The FAA's Weather Technology in the Cockpit (WTIC) Program—Status and Success!

Steve Abelman, FAA, Washington, DC; and G. Pokodner and E. Frazier

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

9.2

A Proposed Weather Taxonomy for General Aviation Pilot Education and Training

John M. Lanicci, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical Univ., Daytona Beach, FL; and T. Guinn, J. M. King, E. L. Blickensderfer, R. L. Thomas, and Y. Ortiz

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

9.3

The Global Hazards Weather Project

Cathy Kessinger, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. Megenhardt, G. Blackburn, J. Olivo, L. Lin, V. Hoang, M. Nayote, A. Ritter, D. Wolf, O. Matz, R. Scheinhartz, and J. Cahall

Recorded Presentation

Handout (4.1 MB)

9.4

WARP Selectable Mosaic Generator: Weather Improvements for Air Traffic Controllers

2:15 PM

9.4A

Operational Wind Compression Guidance Needs and Shortfall Mitigation

Colleen Reiche, AvMet Applications Inc., Reston, VA; and R. Bass

Recorded Presentation

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

Location: 4E (Washington State Convention Center )

Poster Session 3

ARAM Posters - Climate Change, Clouds and Visibility, Spaceport Weather, Wind and Wake Vortices

Host: 18th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology

1297

Impacts of Climate Change on Aviation: Aircraft Weight Restrictions Due to Higher Temperatures

Ethan David Coffel, Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and T. R. Thompson and R. M. Horton

1298

The 2014 Upgrade to the Lightning Warning Areas Used By 45th Weather Squadron

William P. Roeder, 45th Weather Squadron, Patrick AFB, FL; and T. M. McNamara, M. McAleenan, K. A. Winters, L. M. Maier, and L. L. Huddleston

Manuscript (767.8 kB)

Handout (366.8 kB)

1299

A New Lightning Climatology for Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and NASA Kennedy Space Center

William P. Roeder, 45th Weather Squadron, Patrick AFB, FL

Manuscript (1.2 MB)

Handout (804.6 kB)

1300

Development of a Rapid-Update Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis of Ceiling and Visibility

Runhua Yang, IMSG and NOAA/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and M. Pondeca, S. Levine, G. Dimego, J. Whiting, G. Manikin, and A. M. Gibbs

Handout (591.5 kB)

1301

Toward Generating a New Gridded Ceiling and Visibility Product for Alaska

James O. Pinto, NCAR/Research Applications Laboratory, Boulder, CO; and R. D. Roberts, J. Cowie, T. L. Fowler, D. A. Wesley, and J. A. Colavito

1302

A New Technique for Forecasting Stratus in the San Francisco Bay Area

J.P. Kalb, Santa Clara, CA

1303

Upper Air Measurements of Wind and Turbulence with the Combination of Doppler Lidars and Radars on Airports

Ludovic Thobois, Leosphere, Orsay, France; and J. P. Cariou

1304

Low-Level Wind Climatology Related to Potential Wind Compression

Colleen Reiche, AvMet Applications Inc., Reston, VA; and M. Robinson, M. Kay, C. Craun, D. Goswami, and R. Bass

Poster 1305 has been moved. New paper number is 10.6A.

Poster 1306 has been moved. New paper number is 10.5A.

Session 10

Understanding and Mitigating the Impact of Gravity Waves, Wake Vortices and Wind on Aviation Operations

Location: Conference Center: Skagit 2 (Washington State Convention Center )

Host: 18th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology

Cochairs: Jason C. Knievel, NCAR; Scott Wiley, Tybrin/Jacobs, Inc.

4:00 PM

10.1

Simulations of Gravity Wave-induced Turbulence at Cruise Altitudes Near Observed Thunderstorms

Stanley B. Trier, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. D. Sharman

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

10.2

Clear Air Turbulence Caused by Storm Top Internal Gravity Wave Breaking Based on Satellite Data

Pao K. Wang, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and K. Y. Cheng and S. Bachmeier

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

10.3

Developing Aviation Turbulence Diagnostics based on Convectively Induced Gravity Wave Drag

Soo-Hyun Kim, Yonsei Univ., Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and H. Y. Chun, R. D. Sharman, and S. B. Trier

4:45 PM

10.4

Aircraft Wake Vortices in the Atmospheric Boundary Layer

Thomas Gerz, DLR, Wessling, Germany; and F. Holzäpfel and A. Stephan

Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM

10.5A

Comparison of Potential Temperature Gradient Estimates from Various Temperature Profile Data Sources

Robert E Robins, Scientific Computing Associates, LLC, Seattle, WA; and K. H. Underwood and F. Y. Wang

Manuscript (5.3 MB)

10.6

Hybrid Wind Nowcasting for a Seamless Prediction of Wind Profiles over an Airport up to Four Hours

5:15 PM

10.6A

Using Soundings at One Location and Time to Predict Wind Profiles at Other Locations and Times

Joseph A. Grim, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. C. Knievel and A. P. Mizzi

Recorded Presentation

Awards Banquet Reception

Location: 4AB (Washington State Convention Center )

5:30 PM

Awards Banquet Reception

Recorded Presentation

97th AMS Awards Banquet

Location: Ballroom 6ABCE (Washington State Convention Center )

7:00 PM

97th AMS Awards Banquet

Recorded Presentation

Session 11

Aviation Weather Across the Globe

Location: Conference Center: Skagit 2 (Washington State Convention Center )

Host: 18th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology

Cochairs: Robert Avjian, The MITRE Corporation; Le Jiang, IMSG

8:30 AM

11.1

Transitioning NCAR's Aviation Algorithms into NCEP's Operations

Hui-Ya Chuang, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, MD; and Y. Mao

Recorded Presentation

Handout (2.0 MB)

8:45 AM

11.2

Evolution of Global Meteorological Information Exchange and Integration

M. Pat Murphy, FAA, Washington, DC

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

11.3

A Revolutionary Approach to Multi-Dimensional Data Access of Gridded Datasets using Current and Proposed OGC Web Service Standards

Paul R. Hershberg, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and S. R. Olson, G. Zylstra, and P. Trevelyan

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (582.7 kB)

9:15 AM

11.4

How Will Climate Change Affect Aviation?

Paul D. Williams, Univ. of Reading, Reading, UK

Recorded Presentation

Handout (1.6 MB)

Exhibit Hall Breakfast

Location: 4AB (Washington State Convention Center )

Session 12

Methods to Mitigate the Impact of Lightning and Wind on Aerospace and Spaceport Operations

Location: Conference Center: Skagit 2 (Washington State Convention Center )

Host: 18th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology

Cochairs: Bill Bauman, NOAA; Edward H. Teets Jr., NASA

10:30 AM

12.1

The New Mesoscale Eastern Range Lightning Information Network

William P. Roeder, 45th Weather Squadron, Patrick AFB, FL; and J. M. Saul

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (362.6 kB)

Handout (1.2 MB)

10:45 AM

12.2

Automated Identification of Initial Storm Electrification and End of Storm Electrification Using Electric Field Mill Sensors

Launa M. Maier, NASA, Kennedy Space Center, FL; and L. L. Huddleston

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

12.3

Climatological Study of the Short-Term Variation of the 0, -10, and -20 Degree Celsius Altitude Levels over the Florida Spaceport

Lisa L. Huddleston, NASA, Kennedy Space Center, FL; and L. M. Maier, K. A. Cummings, M. McAleenan, W. P. Roeder, K. A. Winters, L. A. Godoy, and J. J. Hinkley

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

12.4

Using C-Band Dual-Polarization Radar Signatures to Improve Convective Wind Forecasting at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and NASA Kennedy Space Center

Corey G. Amiot, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and L. Carey, W. P. Roeder, T. M. McNamara, and R. J. Blakeslee

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (965.0 kB)

11:30 AM

12.5

A New 48-MHz Radar Wind Profiler for the U.S. Eastern Range

Scott A. McLaughlin, Radiometrics, Boulder, CO; and B. Weber, T. Wilfong, E. M. Lau, D. Merritt, J. F. Pratte, G. Zimmerman, N. Gonzales, and M. Sloan

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

12.6

Analysis of Rawinsonde Spatial Separation for Space Launch Vehicle Applications at the Eastern Range

Ryan K. Decker, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (418.0 kB)

Lunch Break

Session 13

Aircraft- and Satellite-Based Observing Capabilities in support of Aviation Operations

Location: Conference Center: Skagit 2 (Washington State Convention Center )

Host: 18th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology

Cochairs: Bryce Ford, SpectraSensors, Inc.; Steven A. Lack, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Aviation Weather Center

1:30 PM

13.1

Development of An Aviation Unusual Weather Now-casting System Based on Aircraft Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) Data

WEN-YAO TING, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan; and S. S. JAN

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (520.6 kB)

1:45 PM

13.2

Geographic and Seasonal Variability of Accuracy in Water Vapor Measurements from WVSS-II

Skylar S. Williams, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and T. J. Wagner, R. A. Petersen, S. A. Ackerman, and W. F. Feltz

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (2.6 MB)

2:00 PM

13.3

The Use of AMDAR Observations for Verifying Cloud Ceiling and Icing Forecasts

Matthew S. Wandishin, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and G. J. Layne, M. A. Petty, and L. Paulik

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

13.4

Verification of Met Office Global Icing Potential Forecasts using Satellite Observations

Rebecca Stretton, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; and P. Buchanan and P. Francis

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (591.1 kB)

2:30 PM

13.5

Spreading Wings in Alaska: Using Next Generation Satellite Imagery to Support Aviation Forecasting in the Last Frontier

Amanda M. Terborg, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Kansas City, MO; and E. Stevens

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

13.6

A Satellite-Based Nowcasting Method for Estimating Probability of High Ice Water Content Aviation Hazards

Patrick Minnis, SSAI, Hampton, VA; and C. R. Yost, K. Bedka, L. Nguyen, R. Palikonda, D. A. Spangenberg, J. W. Strapp, and A. Protat

Recorded Presentation

Coffee Break

Location: Skybridge (Washington State Convention Center )

Session 14

Lightning and Radar-Based Observing Capabilities in Support of Aviation Operations

Location: Conference Center: Skagit 2 (Washington State Convention Center )

Host: 18th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology

Cochairs: Matt Fronzak, The MITRE Corporation; Cecilia Miner, NOAA/NWS

3:30 PM

14.1

In Search of Effective Ramp Management Balancing Lightning Safety with Operational Efficiency

Wiebke Deierling, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. Steiner, K. Ikeda, J. L. Bewley, M. Robinson, A. Klein, V. Klimenko, and R. Bass

Recorded Presentation

3:45 PM

14.2

Progress on Feasibility Study of Airport Lightning Avoidance System

Eiichi Yoshikawa, JAXA, Mitaka, Japan; and S. Yoshida, T. Adachi, H. Inoue, K. Kusunoki, Y. Takahashi, S. Shimamura, and T. Ushio

4:00 PM

14.3

Latency within mosaicked radar products and its effect on aviation operations

Heather D. Reeves, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and L. Tang, J. Zhang, J. brogden, and K. W. Howard

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

14.4

A Terrestrial Multi-Radar Echo Top Climatology of the Continental United States Derived from MYRORSS: 2000–2012

Darrel M. Kingfield, OU/CIMMS & NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and K. L. Ortega and T. C. Meyer

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

14.5

Utilizing a Polarimetric Size Sorting Signature to Develop a Convective Nowcasting Algorithm

Joseph Picca, SPC, Norman, OK; and D. M. Kingfield and A. V. Ryzhkov

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

14.6

Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor Tools for Aviation

Heather D. Reeves, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and K. W. Howard

Recorded Presentation

Session 14 18th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology

Monday, 23 January 2017

10:30 AM-11:00 AM: Monday, 23 January 2017

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