Evaluation of the Global Korean Aviation Turbulence Guidance System (G-KTG) Using the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA)'s Global Unified Model (UM)

As air-traffic demand has been increased rapidly in recent days, accurate forecasts of upper-level aviation turbulence at cruising altitudes become important in aviation industry. Two World Area Forecast Centers (WAFCs) in US and UK provide automated global en-route turbulence forecast, which is called the World Area Forecast System (WAFS). In Korea, the regional Korean aviation Turbulence Guidance (KTG) system was developed and implemented to Aviation Meteorological Office since 2011. Recently, increased demanding for global aviation turbulence forecasting is made from commercial airlines in Korea, which use the global forecasting results of WAFCs. In this study, we develop the global-KTG (G-KTG) using the Unified Model (UM)-based operational global weather forecasting model of Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), named Global Data Assimilation and Prediction System (GDAPS), and validate it using global turbulence observation data sets for six months (2015.10–2016.03). The G-KTG is developed by combining ten clear air turbulence diagnostics and two mountain wave-induced turbulence indices that have been used in the updated Graphical Turbulence Guidance version 3 (GTG3), developed by National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The performance skill of the individual diagnostics and ensemble combination of G-KTG will be presented in the conference.