2.3 Exploring New Variants of the Experimental CDM Convective Forecast Planning (CCFP) Guidance

Monday, 23 January 2017: 2:00 PM
Conference Center: Skagit 2 (Washington State Convention Center )
Steven A. Lack, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Aviation Weather Center, Kansas City, MO; and B. R. J. Schwedler

The Experimental CDM Convective Forecast Planning (CCFP) Guidance was created to allow AWC forecasters to provide an event-based impact-based decision support (IDSS) product for convection affecting the National Airspace System (NAS).   This IDSS product is known as the Collaborative Aviation Weather Statement (CAWS) and is designed to provide fine-scale convective guidance for air traffic planning with greater than 4 hours lead-time.  The CCFP was designed to retain the same information provided by previously human-generated collaborative convective forecast product and provide information for high level en route traffic planning in the 2 to 8-h lead time with every 2 hour issuance.  The first and current version of the experimental CCFP algorithm used echo tops from a three-member time-lagged High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) ensemble and the Hires-window Advanced Research WRF (Hires-ARW), along with convective precipitation from the Short-range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) system.  The HRRR was chosen as the primary model for consistency with CoSPA, a high-resolution convective forecast tool used at the FAA Air Traffic Control System Command Center (ATCSCC) based on the HRRR.  The SREF was chosen due to its popularity for en route planning at the ATCSCC.  The first version of the experimental CCFP was shown to be as skillful as the human-based product in the 2014 season, but performance waned in 2015 due to performance of the model inputs and the iterative concave hull drawing algorithm.  

For the 2016 convective season, version 2 of the experimental CCFP included an upgraded version of the HRRR and an enhanced drawing algorithm that improves efficiency and precision of polygons by employing an iterative point reduction algorithm (Ramer–Douglas–Peucker) combined with the concave hull algorithm.  The experimental CCFP version 2 was implemented in late summer 2016 concurrent with the new operational HRRR.  In addition to version 2, a third version incorporating the Meteorological Development Laboratory’s (MDL) Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP)/HRRR meld was tested during the 2016 Aviation Weather Testbed Summer Experiment.  Version 3 used the LAMP/HRRR meld as the primary input for polygon creation as en route planners at the ATCSCC increased usage of this product.  This version then applies a time-lagged HRRR solution to tag the polygons with appropriate echo top information and create additional polygons outside the domain of the LAMP/HRRR meld.  This paper will present the differences in the 3 versions of the experimental CCFP guidance and future plans for the algorithm.  

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