Ensemble Prediction of Oceanic Convective Hazards

Strategic planning for transoceanic flights involves the acquisition and interpretation of forecasts of weather hazards, such as convection, that might be encountered along a desired flight path.  Current World Area Forecast Center (WAFC) significant weather forecasts (i.e., SIGWX charts) are manually generated and deterministic. Future products will augment this capability with gridded probabilistic forecasts, likely derived from a combination of numerical weather prediction center (NWP) ensemble model outputs (e.g., WAFC London and WAFC Washington).  We present results of a study focusing on combining multiple NWP ensemble forecasts to generate a probabilistic aviation guidance product for thunderstorms with an outlook of 30+ hours to support strategic, transoceanic flight planning.  Results expand on earlier studies by adding additional NWP center ensembles, examining several globally distributed regions of interest, and including an additional prediction field (convective cloud top heights).  We examine the nature of and regional variation in combined ensemble performance, and show the potential improvements of an automated, adaptive-scale bias correction.  Additionally, we will touch on some of the challenges in communicating probabilistic information.

This research is in response to requirements and funding by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official policy or position of the FAA