Trends in the Evolving Role of the Forecaster

As the skill of numerical weather prediction and associated post-processed guidance continues to improve, the practice of human-edited forecasts has been questioned. Available verification of human-edited forecasts is decidedly mixed and varies based on the element, forecast projection, and departure from climatology.  Given this evidence, the weather enterprise is converging on a view that the role of the forecaster is enacting higher-order forecast interventions and decision support activities. At the Weather Prediction Center, forecasters interpret and apply a wide variety of post-processed guidance to serve as a center of excellence in quantitative precipitation, medium range, and winter weather forecasting. Based on WPC’s experience, this talk will explore recent trends towards higher-order decision making and associated use of model blends and visualization tools that draw forecasters’ focus towards high-impact and uncertain events. Associated plans for tests will also be described. Further this talk will explore the linkage between traditional meteorological forecasting techniques and the provision of decision support services.