5.1 Reliability of Initial-Value Predictions and Climate Attributions: The Importance of Seamlessness (Invited Presentation)

Thursday, 26 January 2017: 8:00 AM
Conference Center: Skagit 1 (Washington State Convention Center )
T. N. Palmer, Univ. of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom

Climate attribution is a rapidly growing field. But are our models good enough to reliably attribute specific weather events to anthropogenic forcing? Contrary to some conclusions in the literature, I argue that diagnostics of forecast reliability from initial-value predictions (e.g. on medium-range, intraseasonal and interannual timescales) contain vital information for assessing the reliability of attribution estimates. I will discuss an idealised example which demonstrates the crucial importance of developing seamless weather and climate prediction systems.
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