Second Symposium on Multi-scale Atmospheric Predictability

Program Chairs: Fuqing Zhang , Pennsylvania State Univ. ; Roberto Buizza , ECMWF

« Collapse View
- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates paper is an Award Winner

Wednesday, 25 January 2017

Wednesday | Thursday | top

8:00 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 25 January 2017

Recording files available
Session 1
Atmospheric Predictability Part I
Location: Conference Center: Skagit 5 (Washington State Convention Center )
Host: Second Symposium on Multi-scale Atmospheric Predictability
Chair: Fuqing Zhang, Pennsylvania State Univ.
8:00 AM
1.1
Tropical Cyclone Prediction and Predictability: Advances and Challenges (Core Science Keynote Talk) (Invited Presentation)
Kerry Emanuel, MIT, Cambridge, MA
Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM
1.2
Surface Boundaries and Severe Weather: Living on the “Edge” in a World of Forecast Uncertainty (Invited Presentation)
Lance F. Bosart, SUNY, Albany, NY
Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM
1.3
Ensemble Prediction and Predictability of the 20 May 2013 Newcastle-Moore EF5 Tornado (Invited Presentation)
Ming Xue, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and N. Snook and Y. Jung
Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM
1.4
Predictability and Error Propagation in Idealized and Real-Data Simulations of Deep Convection
Jonathan A. Weyn, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. R. Durran
Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM
1.5
What Is the Ultimate Limit of Weather Predictability?
Fuqing Zhang, Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA
Recorded Presentation

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 25 January 2017


Coffee Break
Location: 4AB (Washington State Convention Center )

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 25 January 2017

Recording files available
Session 2
Atmospheric Predictability Part II
Location: Conference Center: Skagit 5 (Washington State Convention Center )
Host: Second Symposium on Multi-scale Atmospheric Predictability
Chair: Roberto Buizza, ECMWF
10:30 AM
2.1
Predictability of high-impact weather events (Invited Presentation)
Linus Magnusson, ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom
Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM
2.2
Sensitivity and Predictability of the Waveguide and High-Impact Extratropical Cyclones
James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. M. Amerault and C. A. Reynolds
Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM
2.3
Intrinsic Limit of Atmospheric Predictability for Mid-Latitude Jet/front Systems
Y. Qiang Sun, Pennsylvania State University, State College, PA; and F. Zhang, L. Magnusson, and R. Buizza
Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM
2.4
The Accuracy of Weather Predictions, from the Next Day to the Next Season—an Illustration from Australia
Harvey Stern, Univ. of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.3 MB)

Handout (911.9 kB)

11:45 AM
2.5
“Waves to Weather”: A New Interdisciplinary Platform for Basic Research in the Area of Predictability, Atmospheric Dynamics, and Clouds
Andreas H. Fink, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; and P. Knippertz, G. C. Craig, V. Wirth, M. Riemer, and P. Spichtinger
Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 25 January 2017


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Wednesday, 25 January 2017

Recording files available
Lecture 2
Horton Lecture
Location: 602 (Washington State Convention Center )
Hosts: (Joint between the 20th Conference of Atmospheric Science Librarians International; the Second Symposium on Multi-scale Atmospheric Predictability; the Observation Symposium: Progress, Problems, and Prospects; the 33rd Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 29th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; the 26th Symposium on Education; the 21st Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface; the 19th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 18th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the 15th Conference on Artificial and Computational Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences; the 15th Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 14th Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography; the 14th Conference on Space Weather; the 13th Annual Symposium on New Generation Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the Major Weather Impacts of 2016; the 13th Symposium of the Urban Environment; the 12th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the Ninth Symposium on Aerosol–Cloud–Climate Interactions; the Eighth Conference on Weather, Climate, Water and the New Energy Economy; the Eighth Conference on Environment and Health; the Eighth Symposium on Lidar Atmospheric Applications; the Eighth Conference on the Meteorological Application of Lightning Data; the Seventh Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the 31st Conference on Hydrology; the Fifth Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; the Fifth Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation: Enhancing Our Nation’s Readiness, Responsiveness, and Resilience to High Impact Weather Events; the Fifth AMS Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the Fifth Symposium on Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Processes, Prediction and Impact; the Third Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate; the Special Symposium on Greening the Built Environment; and the Events )
Organizer: John B. Eylander, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
Lecturer: Hoshin V. Gupta, Univ. of Arizona
Cochairs: Michael Ek, NOAA; David J. Gochis, NCAR; John N. McHenry, Baron Advanced Meteorological Systems, LLC
1:30 PM
L2.1
Learning with Models & Data: A Maximum Entropy Approach (Invited Presentation)
Hoshin V. Gupta, Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (57.5 kB)

Handout (13.3 MB)

Recording files available
Session 3
Atmospheric Predictability Part III
Location: Conference Center: Skagit 5 (Washington State Convention Center )
Host: Second Symposium on Multi-scale Atmospheric Predictability
Chair: Roberto Buizza, ECMWF
1:30 PM
3.1
Towards a Unified Prediction System from Weather to Climate Scale (Invited Presentation)
S.-J. Lin, NOAA, Pricenton, NJ; and L. M. Harris, R. Benson, L. Zhou, J. H. Chen, and X. Chen
Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM
3.2
Prediction of the MJO in Navy Global and Regional Systems (Invited Presentation)
Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA; and X. Hong, J. A. Ridout, J. D. Doyle, and M. K. Flatau
Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Wednesday, 25 January 2017


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: 4E (Washington State Convention Center )

Poster Session 1
Multi-scale Atmospheric Predictability Poster Session
Host: Second Symposium on Multi-scale Atmospheric Predictability
Chair: Fuqing Zhang, Pennsylvania State Univ.
CoChair: Roberto Buizza, ECMWF
1443
Heavy Tails in the NWP Ensemble Perturbation Subspace
Justin G. McLay, NRL, Monterey, CA; and E. A. Satterfield

1444
Mechanisms for Morning Heavy Rainfall Corridors along the Meiyu Front over East Asia
Guixing Chen, Center for Monsoon and Environment Research, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China

1445
Impact of Japan Sea SST on Heavy Precipitation Events over Japan during Summer
Satoshi IIZUKA, National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience, Tsukuba, Japan

1446
Sensitivity of Ensemble Forecasts of Supercells to Initial Condition Uncertainty

Variable-Resolution Global Ensemble Analysis Using Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS)

1447
Ensemble Generation Approaches in the NCEP CFSv2
Malaquias Peña, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and S. Saha, X. Wu, J. Woolen, and D. T. Kleist

1448
Kernel Analog Forecasting of Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillations

1449
Investigating the Source of Track and Intensity Errors in Forecasts of Hurricane Joaquin Using the NASA GEOS-5 and Navy Coamps Adjoint Systems
Daniel Holdaway, NASA, Greenbelt, MD; and J. Doyle

1450
Large- and Very-Large-Scale Motions in Katabatic Flows Over Steep Slopes
Marco G. Giometto, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada; and J. Fang, S. T. Salesky, and M. B. Parlange

1451
Subseasonal Predictability of Tropical Cyclones over the North Atlantic: Impacts of Rossby Wave Breaking
Weiwei Li, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and Z. Wang and G. Zhang

1452
Sensitivity of Supercell Simulations to Initial Condition Resolution
Corey K. Potvin, CIMMS/NSSL, Norman, OK; and E. M. Murillo, M. L. Flora, and D. M. Wheatley

Handout (2.0 MB)

1453
Analysis of a Multi-Model Ensemble to Assess the Predictability of Tropical Cyclone Tracks With Large Errors over the Western Atlantic
Nicholas Leonardo, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and B. A. Colle

1454
Analysis and Predictability of an Extreme Precipitation Event in Northeastern Vietnam in 2015 Associated with a Tropical–Extratropical Interaction
Roderick van der Linden, University of Cologne, Köln, Germany; and A. H. Fink, J. G. Pinto, and T. Phan-Van

1455
Drag-based Cell-perturbation Method to Accelerate Turbulence Development in the Context of Meso-scale Model to Micro-scale Model Coupling
Eunmo Koo, LANL, Los Alamos, NM; and L. J. Mazzaro, R. R. Linn, and J. K. Lundquist

The Role of Cloud Diabatic Processes in the Life Cycle of Atlantic-European Large-scale Flow Regimes

1456
The Influence of Mesoscale, Under-Resolved Convective Structures on Nested Large Eddy Simulations
Laura Jin Mazzaro, University of Colorado, Boulder, Boulder, CO; and D. Muñoz-Esparza, J. K. Lundquist, and R. R. Linn

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 25 January 2017


Session 4
Atmospheric Predictability Part IV
Location: Conference Center: Skagit 5 (Washington State Convention Center )
Host: Second Symposium on Multi-scale Atmospheric Predictability
Chair: Fuqing Zhang, Pennsylvania State Univ.
4:00 PM
4.1
Practical Predictability of Flows with Many Scales of Motion (Invited Presentation)
Chris Snyder, NCAR, Boulder, CO

4:30 PM
4.2
Predictability Revisited
Zoltan Toth, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and J. Feng and M. Pena

4:45 PM
4.3
Intrinsic versus Practical Predictability of Multi-Scale Weather and Convectively-Coupled Tropical Waves during the Active Phase of an MJO
Yue Ying, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and F. Zhang

5:00 PM
4.4
Forecast Error Growth across Multi-scales during the Madden-Julian Oscillation
Charles Jones, Univ. of California, Santa Barbara, CA

5:15 PM
4.5
Using Ensembles to Diagnose Environmental Influences on Tropical Cyclone Predictability
Sharanya J. Majumdar, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and W. A. Komaromi, J. R. Moskaitis, J. D. Doyle, and C. S. Velden

5:30 PM-6:30 PM: Wednesday, 25 January 2017

Recording files available
Awards Banquet Reception
Location: 4AB (Washington State Convention Center )
5:30 PM
Awards Banquet Reception
Recorded Presentation

7:00 PM-10:00 PM: Wednesday, 25 January 2017

Recording files available
97th AMS Awards Banquet
Location: Ballroom 6ABCE (Washington State Convention Center )
7:00 PM
97th AMS Awards Banquet
Recorded Presentation

Thursday, 26 January 2017

Wednesday | Thursday | top

8:00 AM-10:00 AM: Thursday, 26 January 2017

Recording files available
Session 5
Atmospheric Predictability Part V
Location: Conference Center: Skagit 1 (Washington State Convention Center )
Host: Second Symposium on Multi-scale Atmospheric Predictability
Chair: Fuqing Zhang, Pennsylvania State Univ.
8:00 AM
5.1
Reliability of Initial-Value Predictions and Climate Attributions: The Importance of Seamlessness (Invited Presentation)
T. N. Palmer, Univ. of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM
5.2
Attributing Predictable Signals at Subseasonal Timescales (Invited Presentation)
Warwick Norton, City Financial Investment Company, New York, NY

9:00 AM
5.3
The Dilemma of Seasonal Monsoon Prediction (Invited Presentation)
Peter Webster, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA
Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM
5.4
Predictability of the Tropospheric NAM and Sudden Stratospheric Warmings in the NMME Phase-2 Models
Jason C. Furtado, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. Cohen, E. J. Becker, and D. C. Collins
Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM
5.5
Predictability of Tropical Precipitation and Gravity Waves, and Relation to Circulation in the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere
M. Joan Alexander, NorthWest Research Associates, Boulder, CO; and D. A. Ortland, A. Grimsdell, J. E. Kim, and C. C. Stephan
Recorded Presentation

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 26 January 2017

Recording files available
Session 6
Atmospheric Predictability Part VI
Location: Conference Center: Skagit 1 (Washington State Convention Center )
Host: Second Symposium on Multi-scale Atmospheric Predictability
Chair: Roberto Buizza, ECMWF
10:30 AM
6.1
Building a Seamless Data Assimilation and Ensemble Prediction System: What Should It Simulate? (Invited Presentation)
P. L. Houtekamer, Meteorological Service of Canada, Dorval, QC, Canada
Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM
6.2
On the Limitations of Uncertainty Schemes (Invited Presentation)
Judith Berner, NCAR, Boulder, CO
Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM
6.3
Is Ultra-high Model Resolution Necessary to Improve Probabilistic Predictions?
Prashant D. Sardeshmukh, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/ESRL/PSD, Boulder, CO

11:45 AM
6.4
A Study of Multi-Scale Initial Condition Perturbation Methods for Convection-Permitting Ensemble Forecasts
Aaron Johnson, CIMMS, Norman, OK; and X. Wang
Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 26 January 2017


Coffee Break
Location: Skybridge (Washington State Convention Center )
« Collapse View