Seasonal Differences in the Response of Arctic Synoptic Scale Cyclones to Climate Change

The dramatic warming of the Arctic over the last three decades has reduced both the thickness and extent of sea ice, opening opportunities for business in diverse sectors and increasing human exposure to meteorological hazards in the Arctic. It has been suggested that these changes in environmental conditions have led to an increase in extreme cyclones in the region, therefore increasing this hazard. In this study, we investigate the response of Arctic synoptic scale cyclones to climate change in a large initial value ensemble with the CESM1 climate model. We find that the response in these simulations varies with season, with significant reductions in cyclone intensity in winter, but with contrasting increases in summer intensity. There is also a significant reduction in winter cyclogenesis events within the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian Sea region.