Program: 29th Conference on Climate Variability and Change (97th American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting)

Coffee Break (6th Floor Foyer)

Location: Washington State Convention Center

Session 1A

Hot Topics in Climate Variability and Change

Location: 605 (Washington State Convention Center )

Host: 29th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Chair: Ben P. Kirtman, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS

11:00 AM

1A.1

The U.S. and Global Climate Conditions of 2016 in Historical Perspective

Jake Crouch, NOAA/NESDIS/National Centers for Environmental Information, Asheville, NC; and D. S. Arndt, C. Fenimore, J. Blunden, A. Sanchez-Lugo, R. R. Heim Jr., K. Gleason, and C. J. Schreck III

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

1A.2

Stratospheric Variability Contributed to and Sustained the Recent Hiatus in Eurasian Winter Warming

Chaim I. Garfinkel, Hebrew University, Jerusalem, Israel; and S. W. Son, K. Song, V. Aquila, and L. D. Oman

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

1A.3

Climate Scenarios for the Fourth National Climate Assessment and the Sustained Assessments Process

David R. Easterling, NOAA/NESDIS/NCEI, Asheville, NC; and K. E. Kunkel

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

1A.4

Planning the Climate Observing Systems of the Future

Betsy Weatherhead, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and V. Ramaswamy and B. A. Wielicki

Recorded Presentation

Session 1B

Sea-ice and Climate

Location: 609 (Washington State Convention Center )

Host: 29th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Chair: Melissa Gervais, Columbia University

11:00 AM

1B.1

Influence of Arctic Amplification on Midlatitude Circulation and Available Energy

Charles G Gertler, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and P. A. O'Gorman

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

Paper 1B.2 has been moved. It is now 13B.2.

11:30 AM

1B.3

Suppressed Mid-Latitude Summer Atmospheric Warming by Arctic Sea Ice Loss during 1979-2012

Qigang Wu, Nanjing Univ., Nanjing, China

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

1B.4

Comparison of Mechanisms for Low-Frequency Variability of Summer Arctic Sea Ice in Three Coupled Climate Models

Dawei Li, Princeton AOS, Princeton, NJ; and R. Zhang and T. R. Knutson

Lunch Break

Lecture 1

Walter Orr Roberts Lecture

Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 2 (Washington State Convention Center )

Hosts: (Joint between the 33rd Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 31st Conference on Hydrology; the 29th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; the 26th Symposium on Education; the 21st Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface; the 19th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 18th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the 15th Conference on Artificial and Computational Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences; the 15th Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 14th Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography; the 14th Conference on Space Weather; the 13th Annual Symposium on New Generation Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the Major Weather Impacts of 2016; the 12th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the Ninth Symposium on Aerosol–Cloud–Climate Interactions; the Eighth Conference on Weather, Climate, Water and the New Energy Economy; the Eighth Conference on Environment and Health; the Eighth Symposium on Lidar Atmospheric Applications; the Eighth Conference on the Meteorological Application of Lightning Data; the Seventh Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the Seventh Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using Python; the Fifth Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; the Fifth Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation: Enhancing Our Nation’s Readiness, Responsiveness, and Resilience to High Impact Weather Events; the Fifth Symposium on Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Processes, Prediction and Impact; the Second Symposium on US-International Partnerships; and the 13th Symposium of the Urban Environment )

Speaker: Cynthia Rosenzweig, NASA

1:30 PM

L1.1

Developing Climate Risk Information for Cities: Key Findings from UCCRN ARC3.2

Cynthia Rosenzweig, NASA, New York City, NY

Recorded Presentation

Session 2A

Ocean and Climate

Location: 605 (Washington State Convention Center )

Host: 29th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Chair: Daniel J. Vimont, University of Wisconsin

1:30 PM

2A.1

Improving Estimates of Earth's Energy Imbalance

Gregory C. Johnson, PMEL, Seattle, WA; and J. M. Lyman and N. G. Loeb

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

2A.2

Atlantic Meridional Heat Transports Computed from Balancing Earth's Energy Locally

Kevin E. Trenberth, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Fasullo

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

2A.3

Connections Between AMOC, Meridional Heat Transport, and Heat Content in the North Atlantic from Satellite Altimetry

LuAnne Thompson, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and K. A. Kelly and E. Frajka-Williams

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

2A.4

Improved Climate Simulations through a Stochastic Parameterization of Ocean Eddies

Paul D. Williams, Univ. of Reading, Reading, UK; and N. J. Howe, J. M. Gregory, R. S. Smith, and M. M. Joshi

Recorded Presentation

Handout (1.2 MB)

Session 2B

Satellite Observations and Climate Part I

Location: 609 (Washington State Convention Center )

Host: 29th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Chair: Eric J. Fetzer, JPL

1:30 PM

2B.1

Climate Warming and Satellite-based Land Cover Changes during 1980-2016

Felix Kogan, NOAA/NESDIS, College Park, MD; and W. Guo

Recorded Presentation

Handout (2.0 MB)

1:45 PM

2B.2

Drought Intensifies Dust Activities in the United States

Bing Pu, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and P. Ginoux

2:00 PM

2B.3

The Deep Blue Aerosol Project: Towards a Space-Based Multi-Sensor Aerosol Optical Depth Climate Data Record

Andrew M. Sayer, USRA/GESTAR, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

2B.4

The Moon and Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (MERBE)

Grant Matthews, Zedika Solutions LLC, Fort Wayne, IN

Recorded Presentation

Handout (6.8 MB)

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

Location: 4E (Washington State Convention Center )

Poster Session 1

Climate Variability and Change Poster Session, Monday

Host: 29th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

40

How are the Radiative and the Dynamical Processes Contributing to the Stratospheric Cooling under Global Warming?

Rong-Cai Ren, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; and Y. Yang and M. Cai

41

Response in Clouds and Atmospheric Circulations Simulated by a Multiscale Modeling Framework to Rapid Adjustment induced by CO2 Increase

Zhujun Li, NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA; and K. M. Xu and A. Cheng

42

Detecting Climate Trends Using AIRS, IASI and CrIS High Spectral Resolution Brightness Temperature Spectra

Daniel DeSlover, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and R. Knuteson, D. Tobin, and H. Revercomb

43

Principal Modes of Precipitation Variability from Preliminary Series of IMERG Data

Andrey Savtchenko, NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and G. J. Huffman and B. Vollmer

Handout (2.1 MB)

44

Application of Clustering Algorithms to Observed and Simulated Daily Precipitation over the Tropical and Southern Pacific Ocean

Max Pike, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ; and B. R. Lintner

45

Characterizing Sub-Seasonal Coupling between Surface Temperature and Top-of-Atmosphere Radiative Imbalance through Graphs of 3D Information Flow

Yi Deng, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and I. Ebert-Uphoff

46

An El Niño-like Future? Investigation and Evaluation of CMIP5 Projections

Yen-Ting Hwang, National Taiwan Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and H. Y. Tseng

47

ITCZ Position and Cross-Equatorial Energy Transport in the MERRA2 Reanalyses

Hui Su, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and R. Stanfield, X. Dong, B. Xi, and J. Jiang

48

Self-Organizing Maps and the Synoptic Climatology of Western North Atlantic Bomb Cyclones

Ryan E. Adams, Kent State University/SOARS, Kent, OH

49

African Easterly Wave Tracks as Simulated by CMIP5 Models

Allison Lynn Brannan, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and E. Martin

50

Do Radiative Feedbacks Depend on the Structure and Type of Climate Forcing, or Only on the Spatial Pattern of Surface Temperature Change?

Alexander Haugstad, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. Battisti and K. Armour

51

Seasonal Variability of Tropopause in Northern Hemispheric winter

Jinju Kim, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and K. Y. Kim

52

Evolutions of the Circulation Anomalies and the Quasi-biweekly Oscillations Associated with Extreme Heat Events in South China

Ruidan Chen, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China

53

Projections of Climate Change Effects on Global Atmospheric River Landfalls

Vicky Espinoza, Univ. of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA; and D. E. Waliser, B. Guan, and D. A. Lavers

54

Spatiotemporal Variance of Global Horizontal Moisture Transport and the Influence of Strong ENSO Events Using ERA-Interim Reanalysis

Evan J. Kutta, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and J. A. Hubbart

55

Volcanoes Drive Climate Variability By Emitting Ozone Weeks before Eruptions, By Forming Lower Stratospheric Aerosols, By Causing Sustained Ozone Depletion, and By Causing Rapid Changes in Regional Ozone Concentrations Affecting Temperature and Pressure Differences Driving Atmospheric Oscillations

Peter L. Ward, USGS Retired, Jackson, WY

Handout (5.8 MB)

Impacts of Climate Change on Wildfire Plume Dispersion: Planetary Boundary Layer Evolution

56

Recent Changes in the Variability and Seasonality of Temperature in the Northern Hemisphere

Katrina L. Hui, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and P. A. O'Gorman and J. G. Dwyer

57

"New Climate" Warmed, "New Atmospheric Circulation" and "Extreme" Meteorological Phenomena

Mohammed-Said Karrouk, University Hassan II, Casablanca, Morocco

58

Does Aerosols Effect on Ocean Parameters over Indian Peninsula?

59

Physical Mechanisms of Eurasian Winter Temperature Variability

Kwang-Yul Kim, Seoul National Univ., Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South)

60

Impacts of SST Anomalies in Different Tropical Oceans on the Asian Summer Monsoon

Y. Zhang, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China

61

Making Ocean and Atmospheric Reanalyses more Accessible to the Research Community

Gerald L. Potter, NASA, Greenbelt, MD; and J. Hertz, L. Carriere, Y. Shen, G. Britzolakis, T. Lee, J. Li, J. Peters, T. P. Maxwell, S. Strong, and J. L. Schnase

62

Using IR Brightness Temperature Spectra to Disentangle the Effects of Ozone, Carbon Dioxide, and Water Vapor On Global Stratospheric Temperature Trends

Ester Nikolla, CIMSS, Madison, WI; and R. O. Knuteson, M. Feltz, H. E. Revercomb, and D. H. DeSlover

Manuscript (2.9 MB)

Handout (5.2 MB)

63

Impact of Island Morphology on Convective Cloud Formation

Udaysankar S. Nair, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and E. Foshee and C. Phillips

64

Regional Changes in Earth's Color and Texture as Observed from Space over a 15- year Period

Guangyu Zhao, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and L. Di Girolamo, D. J. Diner, C. J. Bruegge, K. Mueller, and D. L. Wu

65

Examining the Tropopause Structure during Rossby Wave Breaking Events with COSMIC

Alexia Prosperi, ESMEI at Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and C. Liu and E. A. Barnes

66

Enhancing Decision Making to Help Manage Freshwater Resources: Using NASA's GPM and NOAA's PERSIANN-CDR to Provide Near Real-Time Precipitation Estimates for Decision Makers in the U. S. Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI)

Zach Vozzelli, NASA DEVELOP Program, Asheville, NC

67

Understanding the Observed Cloud Trend during Satellite Era through CMIP5 Preindustrial Control and 1% CO2 Simulations: The Roles of Internal Variability and Anthropogenic Climate Change

Yen-Ting Hwang, National Taiwan Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and Y. J. Chen

68

Cross-Calibrating Satellite Microwave Sounders and the Influence of the Diurnal Cycle

Carl A. Mears, Remote Sensing Systems, Santa Rosa, CA; and F. J. Wentz

69

A Survey of AVHRR PATMOS-x Lake-Surface Temperature Trends and Cloud Optical Properties of the North American Great Lakes Region

Charles H. White, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and A. Heidinger, S. Ackerman, and P. B. McIntyre

70

Cloud Properties Analysis Based on EarthCARE Observation for Climate Variability Prediction

Seiko Takagi, Tokai University, Kanagawa, Japan; and M. Hashimoto

Manuscript (254.5 kB)

71

Development of Regional Cloud Climatologies Using a High Spatial Resolution 35-Year AVHRR Cloud and Clear Sky Radiation Property Climate Data Record

72

Climatology Analysis from a New Multi-Decade High-Resolution Rainfall and Temperature Dataset for Rwanda

Asher Siebert, IRI, Palisades, NY; and T. Dinku, F. Vuguziga, M. M. Mbati, J. M. V. Niyitegeka, S. J. Mason, and A. W. Robertson

73

Improvements to Broadband Shortwave and Longwave Top of Atmosphere Fluxes Derived from Geostationary Satellites

Mandana M. Thieman, SSAI, Hampton, VA; and P. Minnis, W. L. Smith Jr., M. Sun, F. J. Wrenn IV, D. R. Doelling, L. Liang, M. L. Nordeen, D. A. Spangenberg, and R. Palikonda

Handout (1.6 MB)

74

Climate Observations of Total Precipitable Water under Cloudy Skies: Comparison of TWP between Passive Microwave Radiometers and Active GPS RO over Oceans

Shu-peng Ho, UCAR, Boulder, CO

75

Atmospheric Concentration Levels of Carbon Dioxide and Wind Speeds: Evidence of Causality for the South Pacific

Kevin F. Forbes, Catholic Univ. of America, Washington, DC

76

Temperature Variable Trends for High Elevations of the Southern Appalachians 1951-2015

Ryan P. Shadbolt, Central Michigan University, Mt. Pleasant, MI

Manuscript (498.7 kB)

Handout (769.1 kB)

77

Processes-based Attributions of the Temporal Evolution of the Global Warming in the Last 37 Years

Xiaoming Hu, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, China; and M. Cai, S. Yang, and Y. Deng

78

Changes in Merged Surface Temperature over South Asia and Surrounding Seas: A Detection and Attribution Study

Human-caused expansion of the Indo-Pacific warm pool

79

Can We Find a Human Fingerprint Based on Bioclimatic Estimates?

79A

European Tornadoes and Climate Change: Is There a Signal?

80

Historical Drying in the Southeast Pacific and Central-South Chile: Characterization and Attribution of Driving Causes

Juan Pablo Boisier, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; and R. Rondanelli, R. D. Garreaud, and D. Christie

81

The United States Summertime "Warming Hole": Quantifying the Forced Aerosol Response Given Large Internal Variability

Antara Banerjee, Columbia University, New York, NY; and L. M. Polvani and J. C. Fyfe

Session 3A

Attribution and Detection

Location: 605 (Washington State Convention Center )

Host: 29th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Chair: Daniel J. Vimont, University of Wisconsin

4:00 PM

3A.1

Anthropogenic Climate Change Effects on the Central Chile Mega Drought (2010-2016)

René D. Garreaud, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; and R. Rondanelli and J. P. Boisier

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

3A.2

Detection and Attribution Canadian Temperature Changes to Human Influence

Hui Wan, EC, Toronto, ON, Canada; and X. Zhang and F. W. Zwiers

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

3A.3

Seasonality in the Secular warming of the Northern Continents

Natalie Thomas, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and S. Nigam, A. Ruiz-Barradas, and S. Weaver

Paper 3A.4 is now Paper 3A.6A

4:45 PM

3A.4A

Future Changes in Precipitation and Associated Physical Processes within Extratropical Cyclones Using CMIP5 and a Downscaled WRF

Zhenhai Zhang, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and B. A. Colle

Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM

3A.5

Reconciling Theories for Human and Natural Attribution of Recent East Africa Drying

Andrew Hoell, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and M. Hoerling, J. Eischeid, Q. Xiao-Wei, and B. Liebmann

Recorded Presentation

Paper 3A.6 is now Paper 3A.4A

5:15 PM

3A.6A

Estimating the Continental Response to Global Warming Using Pattern-Scaled Sea Surface Temperatures and Sea Ice

Paul J. Kushner, Univ. of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; and A. Bichet and L. Mudryk

Recorded Presentation

Session 3B

Satellite Observations and Climate Part II

Location: 609 (Washington State Convention Center )

Host: 29th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Chair: Eric J. Fetzer, JPL

4:00 PM

3B.1

Hemispheric Trends and Interannual Variability of the Tropical Edge Latitudes Inferred from Observations and Climate Models

Chi O. Ao, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and O. P. Verkhoglyadova, T. Birner, and N. A. Davis

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

3B.2

Observational Evidence for Trends and Variability in the Hadley Cell Based on 15 Years of Scatterometer Ocean Surface Wind Estimates

Svetla M. Hristova-Veleva, JPL/California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and Z. S. Haddad, B. W. Stiles, E. Rodriguez, and F. J. Turk

Recorded Presentation

Handout (6.8 MB)

4:30 PM

3B.3

The Impact of Orbital Sampling on Stratospheric Trend Detection and Derivation of Tropical Vertical Velocities

Luis F. Millan, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and N. Livesey, M. Santee, J. Neu, and G. L. Manney

4:45 PM

3B.4

AIRS Contributions to Climate Science

Eric J. Fetzer, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and J. Teixeira, B. Lambrigtsen, T. S. Pagano, and H. H. Aumann

5:00 PM

3B.5

Precipitation Variations Using Satellite Data during the Recent Sea Surface Temperature Warming Period in the Intra-Americas Region, 1982–2012

Equisha Glenn, City College, New York, NY; and T. Smith and J. Gonzalez

Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM

3B.6

A New Global Geostationary Satellite-Based Cloud and Surface Temperature Climate Data Record for CERES

Rabindra Palikonda, SSAI, Hampton, VA; and P. Minnis, M. L. Nordeen, D. R. Doelling, Q. Z. Trepte, S. T. Bedka, C. R. Yost, D. A. Spangenberg, P. W. Heck, and W. L. Smith Jr.

Recorded Presentation

Reception and Exhibits Opening

Location: 4AB (Washington State Convention Center )

Joint Session 1

Methodology, Evaluation, and Application of Climate Downscaling, Part I

Location: 602 (Washington State Convention Center )

Hosts: (Joint between the 31st Conference on Hydrology; and the 29th Conference on Climate Variability and Change )

Cochairs: L. Ruby Leung, PNNL; Yolande Serra, JISAO/Univ. of Washington; Francina Dominguez, Univ. of Illinois; Christopher L. Castro, Univ. of Arizona

8:30 AM

J1.1

An Overview of Climate Projections Performed for North America CORDEX

Linda O. Mearns, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. W. Arritt, M. S. Bukovsky, C. L. Castro, and H. I. Chang

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

J1.2

Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Modelling of the Maritime Continent and the Impact of Urban Areas

Jason Evans, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia; and D. Argüeso and A. Di Luca

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

J1.3

Ensemble Projections of Regional Climatic Changes for Impact Assessment: A Canadian Case Study

Xiuquan WANG, University of Regina, Regina, SK, Canada; and G. Huang

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

J1.4

A Probabilistic Approach to Climate Downscaling: Flexibility, and Realistic Representation of Extremes

Daniel J. Vimont, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and D. J. Lorenz and M. Kirchmeier

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

J1.5

Comparing the performance of multiple statistical downscaling approaches using a perfect model framework

Anne Marie K. Stoner, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and K. Hayhoe, K. W. Dixon, J. Lanzante, and I. Scott-Fleming

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

J1.6

Exploring the Sensitivity of Projected Climate Indices to Statistical Downscaling Choices

Keith W. Dixon, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and M. J. Nath and J. Lanzante

Recorded Presentation

Session 4A

Advances in Climate Modeling and Prediction Part I

Location: 605 (Washington State Convention Center )

Host: 29th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Chair: Ben P. Kirtman, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS

8:30 AM

4A.1

Robustness of Double ITCZ Biases to the Use of Explicit Convection in the Superparameterized Community Earth System Model

Sungduk Yu, University of California, Irvine, CA; and M. S. Pritchard, M. Woelfle, and C. S. Bretherton

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

4A.2

Representation of Tropical Cyclones in the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS)

Allison C. Michaelis, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and G. M. Lackmann

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

4A.3

Multi-scale Historical Simulations of Regional Precipitation Extremes

Naomi L. Goldenson, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and L. R. Leung and C. M. Bitz

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

4A.4

Dynamic Scale Awareness: Switching Parameterized Convection on at the Right Time

Ahmed Tawfik, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. Lawrence and P. A. Dirmeyer

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

4A.5

Accurate Representation of Organized Convection in CFSv2 Via a Stochastic Lattice Model

Bidyut Goswami, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada; and B. Khouider, R. Phani, P. Mukhopadhyay, and A. Majda

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

4A.6

Convection Permitting Climate Simulations of Mesoscale Convective Systems in a Global Variable-Resolution Model

L. Ruby Leung, PNNL, Richland, WA; and C. Zhao, S. H. Park, S. Hagos, Z. Feng, W. C. Skamarock, and M. Duda

Recorded Presentation

Session 4B

Extreme Events Part I

Location: 609 (Washington State Convention Center )

Host: 29th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Cochairs: Mathew Barlow, Univ. of Massachusetts; John W. Nielsen-Gammon, Texas A&M Univ.; Michael F. Wehner, LBNL

8:30 AM

4B.1

Variations in the Spatial Distribution, Persistence Characteristics and Dynamics of U.S. Summer Heat Waves

Bradfield Lyon, Univ. of Maine, Orono, ME; and A. G. Barnston

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

4B.2

Effects of MMTS on Long-Term Extreme Temperature Trends

Kenneth E. Kunkel, CICS-NC, Asheville, NC; and N. J. Doesken, D. A. Robinson, M. R. Gerbush, and W. A. Ryan

Recorded Presentation

4B.3

The Connection between Meteorological Drought and Extreme Rainfall

4B.4

Severe Flooding, Associated Weather Systems and Death Tolls, in Southeast Australia Since the Mid-19th Century

9:30 AM

4B.5

Interpretation of County-Scale Observed Trends in Extreme Rainfall

John W. Nielsen-Gammon, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

4B.6

An Inter-comparison of Three Heat Wave Types in China during 1961-2010: Observed Basic Features and Linear Trends

Yang Chen Sr., Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China

Recorded Presentation

Themed Joint Session 6

Observational Needs and Advances in Polar Climate Modeling and Science

Location: Conference Center: Skagit 3 (Washington State Convention Center )

Hosts: (Joint between the 14th Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography; and the 29th Conference on Climate Variability and Change )

Chair: Ryan L. Fogt, Ohio Univ.

8:30 AM

TJ6.1

The State of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets: Observations Lead the Way (Core Science Keynote)

Ian Joughin, University of Washington, Seattle, WA

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

TJ6.2

Challenges for Assessing Sea Ice Simulations from Climate Models Against Observations (Invited Presentation)

Alexandra Jahn, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

TJ6.3

Which Observations Are Most Important For Characterizing Arctic Sea Ice? (Invited Presentation)

Cecilia M. Bitz, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

TJ6.4

Satellite Perspectives on the Role of Clouds and Precipitation in Arctic Energy Balance (Invited Presentation)

T.S. L’Ecuyer, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and E. A. McIlhattan, K. Van Trichet, and N. Wood

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

TJ6.5

The ARM West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE) (Invited Presentation)

Dan Lubin, SIO/Univ. Of California, La Jolla, CA; and D. H. Bromwich, A. M. Vogelmann, J. Verlinde, and L. Russell

Recorded Presentation

Coffee Break

Location: 4AB (Washington State Convention Center )

Joint Session 2

Methodology, Evaluation, and Application of Climate Downscaling, Part II

Location: 602 (Washington State Convention Center )

Hosts: (Joint between the 31st Conference on Hydrology; and the 29th Conference on Climate Variability and Change )

Cochairs: Ruby Leung, PNNL; Yolande Serra, JISAO/Univ. of Washington; Francina Dominguez, Univ. of Illinois; Christopher L. Castro, Univ. of Arizona

10:30 AM

J2.1

Uncertainty in Downscaling Across a Continuum of Methods

Ethan Gutmann, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. Clark, J. R. Arnold, R. M. Rasmussen, L. D. Brekke, and K. Nowak

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

J2.2

Comparing Mid-Century Climate Change Projections at Convective Resolving Scales (2-km) for Life Zones Within Puerto Rico

Jared H. Bowden, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC; and A. M. Wootten, A. Terando, R. P. Boyles, V. Misra, and A. Bhardwaj

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

J2.3

Strange Floods: Downscaling Simulations of the Storms that Produce Them

James A. Smith, Princeton Univ., Princeton, NJ; and M. L. Baeck

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

J2.4

Projecting Water Levels of the Laurentian Great Lakes in the 21st Century from a Dynamical Downscaling Perspective

Chuliang Xiao, Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and B. M. Lofgren, J. Wang, P. Y. Chu, and A. Gronewold

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

J2.5

Regional Climate Modeling of Vegetation Feedbacks on the Asian-Australian Monsoon Systems

Michael Notaro, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and G. Chen, Y. Yu, F. Wang, A. Tawfik, and R. Stoeckli

Recorded Presentation

J2.6

Influence of Technology-Driven Land Use Change on Extreme Precipitation

12:00 PM

Identification of Large-Scale Climate Drivers in Flood-Generating Mechanisms - Raquel Lorente-Plazas

Recorded Presentation

Session 5A

Advances in Climate Modeling and Prediction Part II

Location: 605 (Washington State Convention Center )

Host: 29th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Chair: L. Ruby Leung, PNNL

10:30 AM

5A.1

Assessment of Snow, Sea Ice, and Related Climate Processes in Canada's Earth System Models and Climate Prediction Systems

Paul J. Kushner, Univ. of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

5A.2

Impact of Tropical SSTs in the North Atlantic and Southeastern Pacific on the Eastern Pacific ITCZ

Fengfei Song, SIO, San Diego, CA; and G. J. Zhang

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

5A.3

Atmospheric Seasonal Forecasts of the 20th Century: Multi-Decadal Variability in Predictive Skill of the Winter NAO

Antje Weisheimer, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; and T. N. Palmer, N. Schaller, C. H. O'Reilly, and D. MacLeod

11:15 AM

5A.4

From the Southern Ocean to the Tropics: How Can Climate Model Errors Amplify?

Carlos R. Mechoso, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA; and T. Losada, S. Koseki, E. Mohino, N. Keenlyside, A. Castaño-Tierno, T. Myers, B. Rodríguez-Fonseca, and T. Toniazzo

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

5A.5

The Scaling of Short-Term Precipitation Events in a Changing Climate

Christoph Schar, ETH, Zurich, Switzerland; and N. Ban, D. Leutwyler, O. Fuhrer, D. Luthi, and L. Schlemmer

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

5A.6

Heat Budget of the Equatorial Cold Tongue in GFDL FLOR Global Coupled GCM

Sulagna Ray, GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and A. Wittenberg

Recorded Presentation

Session 5B

Extreme Events Part II

Location: 609 (Washington State Convention Center )

Host: 29th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Cochairs: Mathew Barlow, Univ. of Massachusetts; John W. Nielsen-Gammon, Texas A&M Univ.; Michael F. Wehner, LBNL

10:30 AM

5B.1

Assessing Models' Realization of the Large-Scale Teleconnections Between Drought in Central-Southwest Asia and Tropical Sea Surface Temperatures

Mathew Barlow, University of Massachusetts, Lowell, MA; and A. Hoell and H. Wang

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

5B.2

Large-Scale Meteorological Patterns Associated with Extreme Precipitation in the US Northeast

Laurie Agel, Univ. of Massachusetts, Lowell, MA; and M. Barlow, S. B. Feldstein, and W. J. Gutowski

Recorded Presentation

5B.3

Changing Duration and Spatial Extent of Mid-latitude Extreme Precipitation Events Across Different Climates

11:15 AM

5B.4

The Climatology of Storm Surge-Producing Extratropical Cyclones in Observations and Models

Arielle J. Catalano, Rutgers Univ., New Brunswick, NJ; and A. J. Broccoli

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

5B.5

Projected Significant Increase in the Frequency of Extreme Extratropical Cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere

Edmund K. M. Chang, Stony Brook Univ., Stony Brook, NY

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

5B.6

The Wet and Windy Extremes of Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers

Bin Guan, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA; and D. E. Waliser

Themed Joint Session 7

El Niño and Health + Core Science Keynote

Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 5 (Washington State Convention Center )

Hosts: (Joint between the Eighth Conference on Environment and Health; and the 29th Conference on Climate Variability and Change )

Chair: Kristie L. Ebi, Univ. of Washington

10:30 AM

TJ7.1

El Nino and Health: A Tale of Two Disciplines (Invited Presentation)

Glenn Russell McGregor, Univ. of Durham, Durham, UK

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

TJ7.2

El Nino and Infectious Disease Outbreaks: Emerging Links and Interaction with Other Drivers of Disease Activity (Invited Presentation)

Jean-Paul Chretien, OSTP, Washington D.C.; and A. J. Monaghan

11:00 AM

TJ7.3

Connecting Climate Variations and Health Outcomes (Invited Presentation)

Bradfield Lyon, Univ. of Maine, Orono, ME

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

TJ7.4

An Exploratory Analysis of the Health Impacts In South Pacific Island Countries of the 2015-2016 El Niño Event

Glenn Russell McGregor, Univ. of Durham, Durham, UK; and C. Caiado, I. Bovolo, S. Kovats, A. Morse, J. Shumake-Guillemot, R. Kim, and N. Cunningham

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

TJ7.5

Extreme Events Detection and 21st Century Projections in The Intra-America Region

Moises Angeles, City College of New York, New York, NY; and J. Gonzalez

Recorded Presentation

Lunch Break

Session 6A

Extreme Events Part III

Location: 605 (Washington State Convention Center )

Host: 29th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Cochairs: Mathew Barlow, Univ. of Massachusetts; John W. Nielsen-Gammon, Texas A&M Univ.; Michael F. Wehner, LBNL

1:30 PM

6A.1

Evaluating NARCCAP Models for Severe Storm Environment Variables

Eric Gilleland, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. S. Bukovsky, C. Williams, S. A. McGinnis, B. Brown, and L. O. Mearns

1:45 PM

6A.2

Future Changes in Extremes in High Resolution Simulations of CESM1.3

Susan Bates, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and W. M. Washington, N. Rosenbloom, C. Hannay, J. E. Truesdale, and J. T. Bacmeister

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

6A.3

Non-stationarity of Climate Extremes: Natural Variability and Anthropogenic Forcings

Salil Mahajan, ORNL, Oak Ridge, TN; and K. J. Evans, M. L. Branstetter, and M. Kovilakam

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

6A.4

Amplification of Heat Extremes by CO2 Physiological Forcing

Christopher Skinner, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and C. Poulsen

Recorded Presentation

Session 6B

Tropical Cyclones and Climate

Location: 609 (Washington State Convention Center )

Host: 29th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Chair: Ben P. Kirtman, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS

1:30 PM

6B.1

Aerosol vs. Greenhouse Gas Influences on Tropical Cyclone Intensity

Adam H. Sobel, Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and S. Camargo, K. Emanuel, T. M. Hall, C. Y. Lee, M. K. Tippett, and A. A. Wing

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

6B.2

A Dynamic Genesis Potential Index for Understanding how MJO Modulates Tropical Cyclone Genesis

B. Wang, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and J. Y. Moon

6B.3

Revisiting the Future Projections of Tropical Cyclones Intensity

2:15 PM

6B.4

Tropical Cyclone World: a Fine-Resolution Tropical Aquaplanet Climate Model Simulation

Kevin J.E. Walsh, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia; and S. Sur, S. Wales, and M. Thatcher

Recorded Presentation

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

Location: 4E (Washington State Convention Center )

Joint Poster Session 1

Methodology, Evaluation, and Application of Climate Downscaling

Location: 4E (Washington State Convention Center )

Hosts: (Joint between the 31st Conference on Hydrology; and the 29th Conference on Climate Variability and Change )

Cochairs: Ruby Leung, PNNL; Yolande Serra, JISAO/Univ. of Washington; Francina Dominguez, Univ. of Illinois; Christopher L. Castro, Univ. of Arizona

454

Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Surface Water Resources. The Case of Ruvu Sub-Basin

Metekiya Menza Gulacha II, WMO, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

455

150-Year CONUS Quasi-Dynamical Downscaling Product

Trude Eidhammer, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and E. Gutmann, M. Clark, J. R. Arnold, L. D. Brekke, R. Rasmussen, and K. Nowak

456

Evaluating Changes in Extreme Weather During the North American Monsoon in the Southwest U.S. Using High Resolution, Convective-Permitting Regional Atmospheric Modeling

Christopher L. Castro, Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and H. I. Chang, T. Luong, C. M. Carrillo, T. Lahmers, M. Jares, and J. J. Mazon

457

Potential Changes to Extreme Temperature and Precipitation across the U.S. Through 2100 from Three Downscaled Climate Scenarios

Tanya L. Spero, EPA, Research Triangle Park, NC; and J. H. Bowden, M. S. Mallard, K. D. Talgo, S. M. Taylor, and C. G. Nolte

458

Model Independence in Downscaled Climate Projections: a Case Study in the Southeast United States

Geneva M. E. Gray, NC State University, Raleigh, NC; and R. P. Boyles

459

Multivariate Quantile Mapping Bias Correction for Climate Model Simulations of Multiple Variables

Alex J. Cannon, EC, Victoria, BC, Canada

460

Dynamical Downscaling of Climate Change and Land Use Change in Queensland Region

Jozef Syktus, University of Queensland, Dutton Park, Australia

Possible Future Changes in Atmospheric Rivers using a Pseudo-Global Warming Approach

461

Identification of Large-Scale Climate Drivers in Flood-Generating Mechanisms

Raquel Lorente-Plazas, University of Washington, Bothell, WA; and G. Mauger and E. Salathé

462

Regional Hydrological Response from Statistically Downscaled Future Climate Projections in the 21st Century

Lisi Pei, NOAA, Ann Arbor, MI; and A. Gronewold, T. Hunter, and R. Bolinger

463

Impacts on Northern Great Plains Infrastructure from Climate Change using Multi-Member Regional Climate Modeling Ensembles

William Capehart, South Dakota School of Mines and Technology, Rapid City, SD; and B. Lingwall, C. Bruyère, and M. Tye

Handout (1.7 MB)

464

Hydrological Projections on a Small European Catchment

Rita Pongracz, Eotvos Lorand Univ., Budapest, Hungary; and J. Bartholy, A. Kis, and J. A. Szabó

Manuscript (1.5 MB)

465

Diagnosing Ecohydrologic and Atmospheric Feedbacks from Beetle-Induced Tree Mortality with a Coupled Atmosphere-Hydrology Model

Mary Forrester, Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO; and R. M. Maxwell, D. Gochis, L. Bearup, and A. Porter

Poster Session 2

Climate Variability and Change Poster Session, Tuesday

Host: 29th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

483

The Diurnal Cycle of Warm Season Rainfall over West Africa

Gang Zhang, Yale University, New Haven, CT; and K. H. Cook and E. K. Vizy

484

Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Simulations of Precipitation over Japan

Akihiko Murata, MRI, Tsukuba, Japan

485

Regional Climate Modeling of the Changes in Environmental Stability and Heavy Rainfall under Global Warming

Tetsuya Takemi, Kyoto University, Uji, Japan

Handout (1.0 MB)

486

Representation of Southern African Monsoon In A High Resolution AGCM and Its Future Projections

Jerry Raj, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia; and G. L. Stenchikov and H. K. Bangalath

487

The Effect on Simulated Ocean Climate of a Parameterization of Unbroken Wave-induced Mixing incorporated into the k-epsilon Mixing Scheme

Kevin J.E. Walsh, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia; and P. Govekar, A. V. Babanin, M. Ghantous, P. Spence, and E. Scoccimarro

488

What Would Happen to Superstorm Sandy under the Influence of a Substantially Warmer Sea Surface Temperature in a Future Climate?

William K. M. Lau, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and J. J. Shi, K. M. Kim, and W. K. Tao

489

More Frequent Intense and Long-Lived Storms Dominate the Trend in Central U.S. Rainfall

Zhe Feng, PNNL, Richland, WA; and L. Y. R. Leung, S. Hagos, R. A. Houze Jr., C. Burleyson, and K. Balaguru

Handout (11.3 MB)

490

Analyzing Changes in Future Extreme Events in New England using A New Dynamically Downscaled High Resolution Climate Dataset

Muge Komurcu, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA; and M. Huber

Poster 491 has been moved. Now Poster 79A

492

Updating a Climatology of Extreme Snowfall Events in the United States

Jared Rennie, North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies, Asheville, NC; and D. S. Arndt

493

Towards an Event Based Indicator for Monitoring Change in Extreme Precipitation in Support of the US National Climate Assessment

Paul Loikith, Portland State University, Portland, OR; and E. A. Slinskey and D. E. Waliser

494

Characterizing Large-Scale Meteorological Patterns and Associated Temperature and Precipitation Extremes over the Northwestern United States using Self Organizing Maps

Alex Sweeney, Portland State University, Portland, OR; and P. Loikith and B. Lintner

495

Impact of Climate Change on Winter Storm Moisture Transport over the Western United States

Kelsey M. Malloy, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and M. Alexander, K. M. Mahoney, and M. Mueller

496

High Resolution Climate Model Simulations of Stabilized 1.5 and 2 Degree Warming Scenarios

Michael F. Wehner, LBNL, Berkeley, CA; and D. Stone, J. Johnson, B. Loring, H. Krishnan, and T. O'Brien

497

Analyzing Large-Scale, Wintertime Extreme Warm Events using Self-Organizing Maps

Kirsten J Mayer, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and J. E. Martin

498

Atmospheric Rivers and Enhanced Integrated Vapor Transport Probability Forecasts as seen during Frontal Passages in Southern California with an Emphasis on Strong Wind Episodes

Ivory J. Small, NOAA/NWS, San Diego, CA

Manuscript (586.3 kB)

Handout (788.0 kB)

499

Dynamical Analysis of Northeast US Extreme Precipitation Based on Tropopause Height Patterns

Laurie Agel, Univ. of Massachusetts, Lowell, MA; and M. Barlow

500

The Role of Atmospheric Circulation on Rain-on-Snow Driven Ablation in the Eastern United States

Lori J. Wachowicz, Univ. of Georgia, Athens, GA; and T. L. Mote

501

WRF Modeling of Hurricane Norbert Record Rainfall with Monsoon Flooding in Arizona

Dorothea Ivanova, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical Univ., Prescott, AZ; and J. White

502

Beyond the Mean: Trends in United State Convective Environments

John T. Allen, Central Michigan Univ., Mt Pleasant, MI; and C. Lepore and M. K. Tippett

503

Uncovering Potential Dynamical Pathways from Planetary Scales to Regional Extreme Weather Events

504

Colorado Front Range Windstorms in a Changing Climate

Seth Antozzi, Virginia Wesleyan College, Norfolk, VA; and J. J. Barsugli, J. M. Brown, and A. J. Ray

Handout (601.1 kB)

505

Characteristics of Heat Waves in Mesoamerica and Caribbean Region

Nazario D. Ramirez-Beltran, Univ. of Puerto Rico, Mayaguez, PR; and J. E. Gonzalez, J. M. Castro, M. E. Angeles, C. M. Salazar, E. W. Harmsen, and N. Hosannah

Handout (936.0 kB)

506

Numerical Modeling of a Heavy Rainfall Event in Present and Future Climates

John M. Lanicci, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical Univ., Daytona Beach, FL; and T. D. Allison and H. E. Fuelberg

Handout (6.6 MB)

507

Climate Change and Extreme Precipitation Events in the Iberian Peninsula

508

Sixty Years of Increasing Wind Storm Damages in European Forests

H Gregow, FMI, Helsinki, Finland; and A. Laaksonen

509

Assessing East Coast Blizzards Under Climate Change

Tyler Janoski, GFDL, Princeton, NJ

Handout (1.1 MB)

510

Present Simulation and Future Projection of Tropical Storm Activity Over the Western North Pacific in 20-km HiRAM and MRI Climate Models

Chih-Hua Tsou, National Taiwan Normal University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. Y. Tu, C. T. Chen, and T. P. Tzeng

511

Large-scale Controls on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity on Seasonal Time Scales

Young-Kwon Lim, GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. D. Schubert, O. Reale, A. M. Molod, M. J. Suarez, and B. M. Auer

512

Seasonal and Annual Trends of Australian Minimum/Maximum Temperature during 1856-2014

William A. van Wijngaarden, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada; and A. Mouraviev

Manuscript (332.9 kB)

513

Impacts of Soil Moisture Variability Caused by Thawing and Snow Melting in Spring on Precipitation in Summerer

514

The Dependence of Cloud Property Trend Detection on Satellite Instrument Accuracy

Yolanda L. Shea, NASA/LaRC, Hampton, VA; and B. A. Wielicki, S. Sun-Mack, P. Minnis, and M. D. Zelinka

515

A Comparison of Daily Temperature Averaging Methodologies: Spatial Variability, Seasonal Patterns, and Related Climate Variables in the CONUS

Jase E. Bernhardt, Hofstra Univ., Hempstead, NY

516

Long-Term Daily Gridded Precipitation Dataset for Asia and Its Use for Climate Monitoring

Hirotaka Sato, JMA, Tokyo, Japan; and K. Kamiguchi, Y. Mochizuki, and A. Yatagai

Handout (2.2 MB)

517

Use of a Fourier Lockin CW Waveform for the ASCENDS Mission

Grant Matthews, Zedika Solutions LLC, Fort Wayne, IN

Handout (416.8 kB)

518

NOAA's State Climate Summaries for the National Climate Assessment: State-Level Trends in Temperature and Precipitation

Laura E. Stevens, CICS-NC, Asheville, NC; and S. M. Champion, K. E. Kunkel, R. Frankson, J. D. Runkle, B. C. Stewart, D. R. Easterling, L. Sun, J. Griffin, and S. Veasey

Handout (3.8 MB)

519

How Forest Cover and Climate Change Affect the Frequency and Distribution of Boundary Layer Cumulus Clouds in the Eastern United States—An Observational Analysis

Jeffrey M. Freedman, SUNY, Albany, NY; and D. R. Fitzjarrald

520

Effects of Land Management Strategies on Northern Plains Energy Balance Climatology

Gabriel Bromley, Montana State Univ., Bozeman, MT; and T. Gerken, M. M. Morgan, and P. Stoy

521

Co-Occurrence of Extreme Temperature and Moisture over the Contiguous U.S

Colin Raymond, Columbia University, New York, NY; and D. Singh and R. M. Horton

522

Empirical Orthogonal Function Analysis of Various Angular Momentum Waves

523

Empirical Orthogonal Function Analysis of Rossby Haurwitz Angular Momentum Waves

Ernesto W. Findlay, SUNY, Albany, NY; and P. E. Roundy

Handout (8.6 MB) Handout (2.0 MB)

524

Formation Mechanism of a Western Hemisphere Circulation Pattern during Boreal Winter

Ming Bao, Nanjing Univeristy, Nanjing, China; and P. Ceppi, D. L. Hartmann, and X. Tan

525

Global and Synoptic-Scale Forcings on Extreme Snow Melt Runoff Events

Gina R. Henderson, U.S. Naval Academy, Annapolis, MD; and J. L. Arthur, D. J. Leathers, D. A. Robinson, and T. Mote

526

Examining the Influence of East Asian Winter Monsoon Cold Surges on the Areal Extent of the Lower Tropospheric, Northern Hemisphere Wintertime Cold Pool

Simran K. Raju, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and J. E. Martin

527

A Global View of Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation Variability over the Last 60 Years

Qinghua Ding, Univ. of California, Santa Barbara, CA

528

Using Empirical Orthogonal Function/Principal Component Analysis to Explore Wintertime Pacific Jet Variability

Maria Mercedes Madsen, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and J. E. Martin

529

Revisiting Trends in the North Atlantic Subtropical High for the Southeast US Summer Climate and Climate Change

Jared H. Bowden, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC; and T. L. Spero, K. D. Talgo, W. Li, C. G. Nolte, and A. Hanna

530

Link Between CERES Radiative Energy Flux and Southern Hemisphere Jet Stream Variability

Zoe A Brooke Zibton, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI

531

Quantitative Decomposition of Radiative and Non-Radiative Contributions to Temperature Anomalies Related to Siberian High Variability

Tae-Won Park, Chonnam National University, Gwangju, Korea, Republic of (South); and J. H. Jeong, Y. Deng, and M. Cai

Handout (2.6 MB)

532

Response of Winter Moisture Circulation to the India-Burma Trough and Its Modulation By the South Asian Waveguide

Xiuzhen Li, Sun Yat-Sen University, Zhuhai, China

533

Future Changes in Precipitation over East Asia Projected by the Global Atmospheric Model MRI-AGCM3.2

Shoji Kusunoki, MRI, Tsukuba, Japan

534

Assessment of Future Change in Extreme Precipitation Frequency Around Japan By Applying Statistical Downscaling Approach to CMIP5 Data

Kenji Oshio, JMA, Tokyo, Japan; and K. Ishihara and S. Wakamatsu

535

Impact of Horizontal Resolution of Topograpy on Surface Water Budget over the Tibetan Plateau and Surrounding Mountain Ranges using 60-km-mesh Global Atmospheric Model

Osamu Arakawa, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan; and A. Kitoh and T. Ogata

536

High-Resolution Future Climate Projections over Contiguous United States

Jiali Wang, ANL, Lemont, IL; and V. R. Kotamarthi

537

A Study of the Relationship Between the Intraseasonal Variability and Extreme Rainfall Events in the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall in a GCM

Nirupam Karmakar, Indian Institute of Science Bangalore, Bangalore, India; and A. Chakraborty and R. S. Nanjundiah

538

Climate Downscaling for Water Reservoir Impact Studies

I. C. Oliveira, IBM Research, Sao Paulo, Brazil; and A. B. Buoro and A. C. Nogueira Jr.

539

Climate Change Hazards: Extreme Precipitation and Flooding in Oklahoma's Tribal Nations

Kristina Mazur, NCEP Student Internship Program, Ocean Prediction Center, College Park, MD; and E. Mullens and D. H. Rosendahl

Handout (1.3 MB)

540

Defining Philippine Climate Zones Using Cluster Analysis

Irenea L. Corporal-Lodangco, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and L. M. Leslie

541

Analysis of Climate Variability over the Yakima Valley: The Weather As a Decision Support System

Melba Salazar-Gutierrez, Washington State University, Prosser, WA; and B. Chaves-Cordoba, S. Hill, and G. Grove

542

Snowfall Changes During the California Drought

Veronica Fall, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and E. Martin, L. M. Leslie, and M. B. Richman

543

WRF GCM and Reanalysis-driven Dynamical Downscaling Evaluation of Present Day Climate Simulations over Bolivia

Azar Mohammad Abadi, Univ. of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and R. Oglesby, C. M. Rowe, and R. Mawalagedara

544

Observed and CMIP5 Modeled Influence of Large-Scale Circulation on Summer Precipitation and Drought in the South-Central United States

Jung-Hee Ryu, Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX; and K. Hayhoe

545

Southern Hemisphere Circulation Change from Paleoclimate (LGM) to Future (RCP4.5) Climate

Seo-Yeon Kim, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and S. W. Son

546

Decadal Analysis of Future Extreme Climatic Conditions in Southern and Central European Regions

Judit Bartholy, Eotvos Lorand Univ., Budapest, Hungary; and R. Pongracz, I. Pieczka, and K. Szabone Andre

Manuscript (3.5 MB)

547

Lightning Flash Rate in the Lower Maracaibo Basin, Venezuela Related to Sea Surface Temperatures and Tropospheric Airflow

Deirdre Smith, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA; and J. C. Trepanier and Á. Muñoz

548

CMIP5 Global Climate Model Performance Evaluation over the South-Central United States

Derek H. Rosendahl, South Central Climate Science Center, Norman, OK; and D. Rupp, R. McPherson, and B. Moore III

549

Impacts of ENSO on Tornado Frequency and Geographical Distribution in the Eastern United States

Coryn Collins, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA

Session 7A

Climate Observations and Reanalyses

Location: 605 (Washington State Convention Center )

Host: 29th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Chair: Laura Stevens, NOAA/Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites

4:00 PM

7A.1

CERA-20C: The ECMWF Coupled Reanalysis of the 20th Century

Patrick Laloyaux, ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom; and M. Alonso-Balmaseda, R. Buizza, E. de Boisseson, P. Dahlgren, D. Dee, S. Hirahara, S. Saarinen, D. Schepers, and Y. Kosaka

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

7A.2

Evaluation of Improvements in MERRA's Representation of Clouds and Radiation between Version 1 and Version 2

Laura M. Hinkelman, University of Washington, Seattle, WA

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

7A.3

Development of a 0.5 deg Global Monthly Raining Day Dataset from 1901-2010

Xubin Zeng, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and S. Stillman

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

7A.4

Investigating Changes in Temperature Variability and Extremes Using Gridded In Situ-based and Reanalysis Daily Temperature Datasets

Mia H. Gross, Climate Change Research Centre/University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia; and L. V. Alexander and M. G. Donat

Recorded Presentation

7A.5

Comparison of Column-Integrated Water Vapor Among Reanalysis Datasets

5:15 PM

7A.6

Customer Use Cases and Analytics for Climate Data at NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information

Michael J. Brewer, NOAA/NESDIS/NCEI, Asheville, NC; and T. Owen, A. Hollingshead, and J. Dissen

Recorded Presentation

Session 7B

Large-scale Circulation

Location: 609 (Washington State Convention Center )

Host: 29th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Chair: Kyle Armour, Univ. of Washington

4:00 PM

7B.1

Robust Drying Influence of Mean Ocean Surface Warming on The Sahel and Implications for Constraining Future Rainfall Change

Spencer A. Hill, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and Y. Ming, M. Zhao, and I. M. Held

Recorded Presentation

Handout (1.5 MB)

4:15 PM

7B.2

Understanding Tropical Atlantic Precipitation Bias Across CMIP5 Models

Ross D. Dixon, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and D. J. Vimont

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

7B.3

Stationary-Eddy Influence on Changes in the Hydrological Cycle

Robert Wills, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and T. Schneider

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

7B.4

Effects of Solar Geoengineering on Meridional Energy Transport and the ITCZ

Rick D Russotto, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and T. P. Ackerman and D. M. W. Frierson

Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM

7B.5

The Composite Life Cycle of West Pacific Jet Superposition Events and their Associated Large-Scale Environments

Zachary Handlos, Northern Illinois University, DeKalb, IL; and J. E. Martin

Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM

7B.6

Quantifying the Role of Large-scale Atmospheric Circulation in Midlatitude Weather Extremes

Gang Chen, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and P. Martineau

Recorded Presentation

Joint Session 3

Climate Variability and Change in the Arctic and/or Antarctic Part I

Location: 605 (Washington State Convention Center )

Hosts: (Joint between the 29th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the 14th Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography )

Chair: Qinghua Ding, Univ. of California

8:30 AM

J3.1

Advancing NOAA NWS Arctic Program Development

Marina Timofeyeva, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and F. Horsfall, J. C. Meyers, M. Churma, and R. Thoman

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

J3.2

50 Years of Satellite Snow Cover Extent Mapping Over Northern Hemisphere Lands

David A. Robinson, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

J3.3

Near Real Time Operational Satellite Arctic Composite Imagery Products

Banghua Yan, NOAA, College Park, MD

Recorded Presentation

Handout (1.1 MB)

9:15 AM

J3.4

Stability of Atmospheric Teleconnections in Dynamical Models

Ed Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. M. Bitz

9:30 AM

J3.5

Connections Between the Spring Pacific-Arctic Dipole and Summer Sea Ice in the Beaufort-Chukchi Seas

Will Perrie, Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Dartmouth, NS, Canada; and M. Zhang and Z. Long

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

J3.6

Scenario Changes of Atlantic Water in the Arctic Ocean

Will Perrie, Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Dartmouth, NS, Canada; and Z. Long

Session 8

Modes of Climate Variability Part I

Location: 609 (Washington State Convention Center )

Host: 29th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Cochairs: Justin J. Wettstein, Oregon State University; Haiyan Teng, NCAR

8:30 AM

8.1

Variability of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone Related to Changes in Inter-Hemispheric Dust Load

Stuart M. Evans, NOAA, Princeton, NJ; and P. Ginoux and E. Dawson

Recorded Presentation

8.2

Representation of the Atlantic Meridional Mode By Climate Models: Influence of Mean Biases and Feedback Processes

9:00 AM

8.3

An Analytical Framework for Understanding Tropical Meridional Modes

Cristian Martinez-Villalobos, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and D. J. Vimont

Recorded Presentation

Handout (4.0 MB)

9:15 AM

8.4

Desert Amplification in a Warming Climate

Liming Zhou, SUNY, Albany, NY

Recorded Presentation

Handout (2.4 MB)

8.5

Implications of the Near Interhemispheric Symmetry of the Planet's Water and Energy Balances

9:45 AM

8.6

The Role of Mesoscale Convective Systems in the Diurnal Cycle of Rainfall over Sub-Saharan Northern Africa

Weiran Liu, Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX; and K. H. Cook and E. K. Vizy

Recorded Presentation

Coffee Break

Location: 4AB (Washington State Convention Center )

Joint Session 4

Climate Variability and Change in the Arctic and/or Antarctic Part II

Location: 605 (Washington State Convention Center )

Hosts: (Joint between the 29th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the 14th Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography )

Chair: Emily R. Newsom, University of Washington

10:30 AM

J4.1

Influence of the Recent High-Latitude Atmospheric Circulation Change on Summertime Arctic Sea Ice

Qinghua Ding, Univ. of California, Santa Barbara, CA; and A. Schweiger, M. L'Heureux, D. Battisti, N. Johnson, E. Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Q. Zhang, K. J. Harnos, R. Eastman, and E. J. Steig

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

J4.2

Seasonal Differences in the Response of Arctic Synoptic Scale Cyclones to Climate Change

Jonathan J Day, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; and M. M. Holland and K. I. Hodges

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

J4.3

Impacts of Atmospheric Moisture Transport on Greenland Ice Sheet Melt and Energy Balance

Kyle S. Mattingly, University of Georgia, Athens, GA; and T. Mote

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

J4.4

Temperature and Moisture Advection in the Lower Troposphere Driving the Arctic Surface Radiative Flux Anomalies Associated with the Arctic Oscillation and Arctic Dipole

Bradley M. Hegyi, NASA, Hampton, VA; and P. C. Taylor

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

J4.5

Seasonal Climatology and Trends of Strong Wind and Lull Events in the Circum-Arctic During the 1980 - 2010 Period Using a Novel Lull/Storm Wind Indicator

Norman James Shippee, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada; and D. E. Atkinson and J. L. Partain Jr.

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

J4.6

Enhanced Coupling for Warm Stratospheric Events with Strong Polar Night Jet Oscillation

Dieter H. W. Peters, Leibniz-Institute of Atmospheric Physics/University Rostock, Kühlungsborn, Germany; and A. Schneidereit

Recorded Presentation

Joint Session 5

Extreme Heat III — The National Integrated Heat Health Information System (NIHHIS): Developing Networks & Communities of Practice for Building Resilience to Extreme Heat

Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 5 (Washington State Convention Center )

Hosts: (Joint between the Eighth Conference on Environment and Health; the 13th Symposium of the Urban Environment; the 29th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the Board on Global Strategies; the 12th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; and the Seventh Conference on Transition of Research to Operations )

Cochairs: Kristie L. Ebi, Univ. of Washington; Christofer Astrom, Umea University

10:30 AM

J5.1

Beating the Heat: Building the Global Heat Health Information Network (GHHIN)

Joy Shumake-Guillemot, WMO, Geneva, Switzerland; and J. Trtanj

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

J5.2

Building Resilience to Extreme Heat: The National Integrated Heat Health Information System (NIHHIS)

Juli Trtanj, NOAA, Silver Spring, MD; and H. M. Jones, S. Saha, G. Luber, M. D. Hawkins, and W. Higgins

11:00 AM

J5.3

Reducing Heat-Health Vulnerability in India

Kim Knowlton, Natural Resources Defense Council, New York, NY; and D. Mavalankar, P. Ganguly, A. Tiwari, P. Dutta, L. Sathish, P. Sheffield, N. Kaur, A. Jaiswal, and J. J. Hess

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

J5.4

Heat Health in Bangladesh: Defining and Predicting Heat Waves Across Timescales

Hannah Nissan, IRI, New York, NY; and K. G. Burkart and S. J. Mason

Recorded Presentation

Session 9

Modes of Climate Variability Part II

Location: 609 (Washington State Convention Center )

Host: 29th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Cochairs: Ka-Kit Tung, University of Washington; Cristian Martinez-Villalobos, University of Wisconsin

10:30 AM

9.1

Quantifying the Eddy-Jet Feedback Strength of the Annular Mode in an Idealized GCM and Reanalysis Data

Ding Ma, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA; and P. Hassanzadeh and Z. Kuang

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

9.2

Causes of Extreme Ridges that Induce California Droughts

Haiyan Teng, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. Branstator

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

9.3

Propagating Annular Modes

Aditi Sheshadri, Columbia University, New York, NY; and R. A. Plumb

11:15 AM

9.4

Robust and Dynamically Intuitive Three-Dimensional Structures in Extratropical Flow Variability

Justin J. Wettstein, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR; and C. Li and S. Bradshaw

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

9.5

Seasonal Variability of Wintertime Eastern Pacific Teleconnection Pattern and Its Linkage with Tropical Convective Heating

Jiacan Yuan, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ; and B. Tan, S. Lee, S. B. Feldstein, and Y. Dai

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

9.6

Analyzing the Northern Hemisphere Wintertime Tropospheric Circulation Using a Novel Standing-travelling Wave Decomposition

Oliver Watt-Meyer, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; and P. J. Kushner

Recorded Presentation

Lunch Break

Lecture 2

Horton Lecture

Location: 602 (Washington State Convention Center )

Hosts: (Joint between the 20th Conference of Atmospheric Science Librarians International; the Second Symposium on Multi-scale Atmospheric Predictability; the Observation Symposium: Progress, Problems, and Prospects; the 33rd Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 29th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; the 26th Symposium on Education; the 21st Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface; the 19th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 18th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the 15th Conference on Artificial and Computational Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences; the 15th Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 14th Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography; the 14th Conference on Space Weather; the 13th Annual Symposium on New Generation Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the Major Weather Impacts of 2016; the 13th Symposium of the Urban Environment; the 12th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the Ninth Symposium on Aerosol–Cloud–Climate Interactions; the Eighth Conference on Weather, Climate, Water and the New Energy Economy; the Eighth Conference on Environment and Health; the Eighth Symposium on Lidar Atmospheric Applications; the Eighth Conference on the Meteorological Application of Lightning Data; the Seventh Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the 31st Conference on Hydrology; the Fifth Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; the Fifth Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation: Enhancing Our Nation’s Readiness, Responsiveness, and Resilience to High Impact Weather Events; the Fifth AMS Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the Fifth Symposium on Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Processes, Prediction and Impact; the Third Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate; the Special Symposium on Greening the Built Environment; and the Events )

Organizer: John B. Eylander, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

Lecturer: Hoshin V. Gupta, Univ. of Arizona

Cochairs: Michael Ek, NOAA; David J. Gochis, NCAR; John N. McHenry, Baron Advanced Meteorological Systems, LLC

1:30 PM

L2.1

Learning with Models & Data: A Maximum Entropy Approach (Invited Presentation)

Hoshin V. Gupta, Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (57.5 kB)

Handout (13.3 MB)

Joint Session 6

Climate Variability and Change in the Arctic and/or Antarctic Part III

Location: Conference Center: Skagit 3 (Washington State Convention Center )

Hosts: (Joint between the 14th Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography; and the 29th Conference on Climate Variability and Change )

Chair: James A. Renwick, Victoria University of Wellington

1:30 PM

J6.1

2016 Arctic Spring and Summer Warming Observed by AIRS

Jae N. Lee, JCET, Baltimore, MD; and J. Susskind, L. Iredell, Y. K. Lim, and S. Nowicki

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

J6.2

Indicators of a Changing Arctic

Diane M. Stanitski, NOAA ESRL Global Monitoring Division, Boulder, CO; and M. L. Druckenmiller, F. Fetterer, M. Gerst, J. Intrieri, M. A. Kenney, W. Meier, J. E. Overland, J. Stroeve, and S. Trainor

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

J6.3

The Arctic System Reanalysis

David H. Bromwich, Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH; and A. B. Wilson, L. S. Bai, K. M. Hines, S. H. Wang, B. Kuo, Z. Liu, H. C. Lin, T. K. Wee, M. Barlage, M. C. Serreze, J. E. walsh, and A. Slater

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

J6.4

The Polar Amplification Asymmetry: Role of Antarctic Surface Height

Marc Salzmann, University of Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany

Recorded Presentation

Handout (2.9 MB)

Joint Session 8

Extreme Heat IV — The National Integrated Heat Health Information System (NIHHIS): Defining Extreme Heat & Lead times for Building Resilience to Extreme Heat

Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 5 (Washington State Convention Center )

Hosts: (Joint between the Eighth Conference on Environment and Health; the 13th Symposium of the Urban Environment; the 29th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the Board on Global Strategies; the 12th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; and the Seventh Conference on Transition of Research to Operations )

Chair: Kim Knowlton, Natural Resources Defense Council

1:30 PM

J8.1

A Comparison of the NWS Heat Index and the Steadman Apparent Temperature Formulas over Southeast Texas

Mark Keehn, NWS, Dickinson, TX; and L. Wood

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

J8.2

Quantifying the Risk of Compound Heat Wave Events

Jane Wilson Baldwin, Princeton Univ., Princeton, NJ; and J. Dessy, G. A. Vecchi, and M. Oppenheimer

2:00 PM

J8.3

Enhancing Resilience to Heat Extremes: Multi-model Forecasting of Excessive Heat Events at Subseasonal Lead Times

Augustin Vintzileos, University of Maryland/Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, Camp Springs, MD; and J. Gottschalck, A. Allgood, and M. Halpert

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

J8.4

The Relationship Between the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation and Eastern US Extreme Heat Events

Andrea Jenney, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and D. A. Randall

Recorded Presentation

Session 10A

CLIVAR PSMI Session on Model Diagnostics and Metrics

Location: 605 (Washington State Convention Center )

Host: 29th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Cochairs: Maria K. Flatau, NRL; Caroline C. Ummenhofer, WHOI

1:30 PM

10A.1

Evaluation of the Eastward Propagating Convective Disturbances

Maria Flatau, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Ridout, S. Chen, N. P. Barton, and C. A. Reynolds

1:45 PM

10A.2

Contemporary Model Fidelity over the Maritime Continent: Examination of the Diurnal Cycle, Synoptic, Intraseasonal and Seasonal Variability

Dariusz B. Baranowski, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and D. E. Waliser and X. Jiang

2:00 PM

10A.3

Process Oriented Diagnostics of Tropical Cyclones in Climate Models

Daehyun Kim, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and S. J. Camargo, Y. Moon, A. H. Sobel, A. A. Wing, H. Murakami, E. Scoccimarro, G. A. Vecchi, C. M. Zarzycki, and M. Zhao

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

10A.4

Gridded Tropical Atlantic Ocean Vector Wind Fields From Polar-Orbiting Scatterometers

Ralph C. Foster, APL, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and G. Levy

Recorded Presentation

Session 10B

ENSO Dynamics, Predictability, and Impacts Part I

Location: 609 (Washington State Convention Center )

Host: 29th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Cochairs: Sarah M. Larson, University of Miami/RSMAS; Erin E. Thomas, University of Wisconsin

1:30 PM

10B.1

Evolution of the 2015-16 El Niño: A Dynamics Perspective

Michael J. McPhaden, PMEL, Seattle, WA

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

10B.2

Diversity of Surface Easterly Wind, Upper Ocean Chlorophyll-a and Thermocline Depth Along the Equator in El Niño and La Niña Events During 1997 to 2016

David Halpern, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and B. Franz and P. Heimbach

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

10B.3

Examining the Variability of the Diurnal Cycle of Rainfall over the Pacific Basin associated with El Niño

Tony O. Hurt Jr., Significant Opportunities in Atmospheric Research and Science, Boulder, CO; and N. Sakaeda, G. Kiladis, and J. Dias

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

10B.4

Characterizing Unforced Multi-decadal Variability of ENSO: A Case Study with the GFDL CM2.1 Coupled GCM

Alyssa R. Atwood, University of California, Berkeley, CA; and D. S. Battisti, A. T. Wittenberg, W. H. G. Roberts, and D. J. Vimont

Recorded Presentation

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

Location: 4E (Washington State Convention Center )

Poster Session 3

Climate Variability and Change Poster Session, Wednesday

Host: 29th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

1115

Impact of Eurasian Spring Snow Decrement on East Asian Summer Precipitation

Ruonan Zhang, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China; and R. Zhang and Z. Zuo

Manuscript (331.0 kB)

Handout (1.3 MB)

1116

Impacts of the North Atlantic Warming Hole on Atmospheric Circulation

Melissa Gervais, Columbia University, New York, NY; and J. Shaman

1117

The Link Between Marine Boundary Layer Clouds and Interannual to Interdecadal SST Variability over the Atlantic and Pacific

Timothy Myers, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and C. R. Mechoso and M. J. DeFlorio

1118

All India Summer Monsoon Rainfall Variability: Large-Scale Circulations and Climate Change Impacts and Processes

Remata S. Reddy, Jackson State Univ., Jackson, MS; and F. Tuluri and M. Fadavi

1119

El Niño And The East Asian Monsoon: Unraveling The Roles Of The Annual Cycle And Air/Sea Interactions

Malte F. Stuecker, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and F. F. Jin, A. Timmermann, S. McGregor, and W. Zhang

1120

The Modulating Influence of the Indian Ocean Subtropical Dipole on Australian Region Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Counts

1121

Intensified Deep Convection over the Asian-Australian Monsoon Regions May Prolong the Persistence of the El Niño and La Niña Events

Zhenning Li, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China; and S. Yang and X. Hu

1122

Analysis of the 2015-16 El Niño Event using the NASA's GEOS Data Assimilation System

Young-Kwon Lim, GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and R. Kovach, S. Pawson, and G. Vernieres

1123

Contributions of Upper Ocean Variability over the Western North Pacific to ENSO

Yoon-Kyoung Lee, Chonbuk National University, Jeonju, Korea, Republic of (South); and S. W. Yeh, B. K. Moon, and H. J. Park

Handout (4.7 MB)

1124

Examining the Relationship Between Tropical Cyclones and African Dust Using the Community Atmosphere Model

Jacob Huff, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and K. A. Reed

1125

Dust Amplification of ENSO Related Rainfall Anomalies over Australia in the NOAA/GFDL Coupled Model 3

Stuart M. Evans, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and P. Ginoux, S. Malyshev, and E. Shevliakova

1126

Impacts of Carbonaceous Aerosol on Hydrological Cycle over the Northern Africa

1127

The Role of Airborne Dust in the Simulation of Global Tropical Cyclone Activity

Kevin A. Reed, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and J. T. Bacmeister, S. Bates, N. Rosenbloom, and J. Huff

1128

Synoptically Driven Lake Effect Snowfall Changes to the Lee of Lakes Erie and Ontario

Zachary Suriano, Univ. of Delaware, Newark, DE; and D. J. Leathers

1129

Interannual Variability of Wintertime Monthly Surface Air Temperature in China

Maoqiu Jian, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China; and D. Jia

1130

Characteristics of Summer Precipitation Diurnal Variations in Hubei Province of China

Lin Chunze, Wuhan Institute of Heavy Rain, China Meteorological Administration, Wuhan, China

1131

Seasonal Prediction of Tropical Cyclone By the JMA/MRI-CPS2

Yutaro Kubo, JMA, Tokyo, Japan

1132

Spatio-temporal Analysis of Air Temperature over Northwestern Nigeria: A Climate Change Perspective

Bernard Tarza Tyubee, Benue State Univ., Makurdi, Nigeria; and D. O. Onyilo

1133

Parsimonious Patterns in Sea Surface Temperature of the Tropical Pacific Ocean

Guangoh Jheong, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South)

Handout (6.9 MB)

1134

Impact of Solar Radio Flux on Precipitation in China

Yan Song, China Meteorological Administration Training Centre, Beijing, China; and Z. Li

1135

Interannual Variations of Mid-Pacific Trough Associated with Asian-Pacific-American Climate

Kaiqiang Deng, Sun Yat-sen Univ., Guangzhou, China; and S. Yang and M. Ting

1136

Interdecadal Change of Spring Rainfall over Southern China and The Physical Factors

Yunting Qiao, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China; and Z. Cheng and M. Jian

1137

The Seasonality of the Great Plains Low-Level Jet and ENSO Relationship

Lakshmi Krishnamurthy, Princeton University / GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and G. A. Vecchi, R. Msadek, A. Wittenberg, T. L. Delworth, and F. Zeng

A paleo perspective on Arctic and mid-latitude linkages

1138

Non-ENSO Tropical SST Influences upon Extratropical Climate

James A. Johnstone, Climate Forecast Applications Network, Seattle, WA

1139

Spatio-temporal Variability of Climatic Parameters in the Logone River Basin (Africa)

Asmita Murumkar, Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH; and M. Durand, M. Moritz, B. Mark, A. Fernández, I. Hamilton, S. Laborde, A. Shastry, S. Phang, and P. Scholte

1140

Variability of North American Wind Chill Temperatures

Macy E. Howarth, Hobart and William Smith Colleges, Geneva, NY; and N. F. Laird

1141

Development of a Downscaling Method in China Regional Summer Precipitation Prediction

Weizong Gu, Shandong Province Meteorology Bureau, Jinan, China

Handout (460.1 kB)

1142

Extreme Seasons in Europe: Summer 2007

Ricardo Morais Fonseca, Luleå University, Kiruna, Sweden; and B. J. Hoskins and M. Blackburn

Handout (1.8 MB)

1143

Seasonal Predictability of Extratropical Cyclone Statistics in the Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System (CanSIPS)

Norman James Shippee, Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, Victoria, BC, Canada; and C. Seiler and F. W. Zwiers

1144

Radiative Heating Profile Anomalies Associated with Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation

Jinwon Kim, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA; and D. E. Waliser, G. Cesana, X. Jiang, T. S. L'Ecuyer, and N. J. Mani

Handout (2.3 MB)

1145

Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) Modulation of Surface Ocean Currents Off the U.S. West Coast

Bradford S. Barrett, U.S. Naval Academy, Annapolis, Maryland; and A. R. Davies, J. I. Rose, and E. R. Sanabia

1146

The Predictors and Forecast Skills of Northern Hemisphere Teleconnection Patterns for Lead Times of 3-4 Weeks

Jiaxin Black, SIO, La Jolla, CA; and N. Johnson, S. Baxter, S. B. Feldstein, D. S. Harnos, and M. L'Heureux

1147

Simulating and Forecasting Seasonal Ice Cover

Xiaolong Ji, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and H. Daher, R. Bolinger, A. Gronewold, and R. B. Rood

1148

Interannual Variability of Spring Intraseasonal Variability and Mei-Yu Onset

Yonghong Yao, Nanjing Univ., Nanjing, China

1149

The Chiricahua Gap and the Role of Easterly Moisture Transport in Southeastern Arizona Monsoon Precipitation

F. Martin Ralph, SIO, La Jolla, CA; and T. J. Galarneau Jr.

1150

Numerical Simulation of Indian Summer Monsoon Using MPAS-A: A Sensitivity Study

Mukul Tewari, The Weather Company, IBM, New York, NY; and R. Mittal, M. Duda, and T. Singh

1151

Atlantic Origin of Recent Decadal Trends in Meridional Thermal Gradient and Global Monsoon

Youichi Kamae, University of California/SIO, La Jolla, CA; and X. Li, S. P. Xie, and H. Ueda

Handout (1.5 MB)

1152

Decadal Changes in Mesoscale Convective System Initiation Over the Corn Belt Region of the United States

Elisabeth F. Callen, Iowa State University, Ames, IA

1153

Interdecadal Change in Tropical Pacific Precipitation Anomaly Pattern around the late-1990s during Boreal Spring

Zhiping Wen, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China; and Y. Guo and R. Wu

1154

Predicting Pacific Decadal Variability Using State Space Reconstruction

Nandini Ramesh, Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY; and M. Cane

1155

Quantification of Global Warming: Critical Evaluation of GCMs

R.J. Salawitch, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and A. Hope, T. Canty, W. Tribett, and B. Bennett

1156

Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Skills of Near-Surface Air Temperature in the CMIP5 Decadal Hindcast Experiments

Seok-Woo Son, Seoul National Univ., Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and J. Choi, Y. G. Ham, J. Y. Lee, and H. M. Kim

1157

The Role of Perturbing Ocean Initial Condition on Simulated Regional Sea Level Change

Aixue Hu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Deser, G. Meehl, D. Stammer, W. Han, and G. Strand

1158

Interdecadal Variability and Change in Global Precipitation during the Satellite Era (1979-2015)

Guojun Gu, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and R. F. Adler

Handout (11.3 MB)

1159

Simulated Response of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation to Climate Change

Liping Zhang, Princeton University, Plainsboro, NJ

1160

A Decadal-scale Air-sea Interaction Theory for North Atlantic Multidecadal Variability: the NAT-NAO-AMOC-AMO Coupled Mode and Its Remote Impacts

Cheng Sun, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China; and J. Li and F. F. Jin

Handout (1.9 MB)

Joint Session 7

Climate Variability and Change in the Arctic and/or Antarctic Part IV

Location: Conference Center: Skagit 3 (Washington State Convention Center )

Hosts: (Joint between the 14th Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography; and the 29th Conference on Climate Variability and Change )

Chair: Kyle R. Clem, Victoria University of Wellington

4:00 PM

J7.1

Seasonal Spatial Pressure Reconstructions Across Antarctica Extending Throughout the Entire 20th Century

Chad Goergens, Ohio University, Athens, OH; and R. L. Fogt

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

J7.2

Causes and Consequences of Long-Term Pressure Variability and Trends over Antarctica Since 1905

David Schneider, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. L. Fogt and H. Dusselier

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

J7.3

An Exceptional Summer during the South Pole Race of 1911-1912

Ryan L. Fogt, Ohio Univ., Athens, OH; and M. E. Jones

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

J7.4

Sensitivity of Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica, to Changing Climate

Laurie Padman, Earth & Space Research, Corvallis, OR; and F. Paolo, J. Feldmann, M. S. Dinniman, H. A. Fricker, S. L. Howard, A. Levermann, and S. Springer

Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM

J7.5

The Bizarre Antarctic: Why is the Radiative Forcing and Greenhouse Effect Negative?

Sergio A. Sejas, USRA, Hampton, VA; and P. C. Taylor

Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM

J7.6

Intraseasonal Variability of Antarctic Sea-Ice in Austral Winter Related to ENSO and SAM Events

James A. Renwick, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand; and K. Baba

Recorded Presentation

Joint Session 10

Extreme Heat V — The National Integrated Heat Health Information System (NIHHIS): Decision Support & Evaluation Across Domestic and International Partnerships for Building Resilience to Extreme Heat

Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 5 (Washington State Convention Center )

Hosts: (Joint between the Eighth Conference on Environment and Health; the 13th Symposium of the Urban Environment; the Board on Global Strategies; the 12th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the 29th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the Seventh Conference on Transition of Research to Operations )

Chair: Juli Trtanj, NOAA

4:00 PM

J10.1

Building a Decision-Support Tool for Adaptation to Extreme Heat

Nik C. Steinberg, Four Twenty Seven Climate Solutions, Berkeley, CA

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

J10.2

Lessons from the MEDMI (Medical & Environmental Data: A Mashup Infrastructure) Project on the Challenges in Facilitating Rapid Progress in Understanding of Weather & Health Linkages

Brian W Golding, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; and L. Fleming, A. Kessel, A. Haines, C. Sarran, H. Gordon-Brown, and S. Leonelli

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

J10.3

Shape of Future Health Risks and Responses from Step Changes in Global and Regional Temperatures

Kristie L. Ebi, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and L. Ziska and G. Yohe

4:45 PM

J10.4

Assessment of Heat Warning and Information Systems in Canada

Dave Henderson, EC, Gatineau, QC, Canada; and A. Yagouti, H. Doyle, V. Anderson, and M. MacDonald

Recorded Presentation

Session 11A

ENSO Dynamics, Predictability, and Impacts Part II

Location: 605 (Washington State Convention Center )

Host: 29th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Cochairs: Alyssa R. Atwood, University of California; Cristian Martinez-Villalobos, University of Wisconsin

4:00 PM

11A.1

How Will El Nino Change Under Global Warming?

Shang-Ping Xie, Univesity of California, La Jolla, CA; and X. Zheng

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

11A.2

Positive Response of ENSO Amplitude to Higher CO2 Forcing is Linked to The Asymmetry Between El Niño and La Niña

De-Zheng Sun, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and S. Sun and J. Shuai

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

11A.3

Linking Preconditioning to Extreme El Niño and ENSO Predictability

Sarah M. Larson, University of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and B. Kirtman

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

11A.4

Stochastic Forcing Structures Conducive to Eastern and Central Pacific ENSO Characteristics

Erin Thomas, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and D. J. Vimont, M. Newman, and C. Martinez-Villalobos

Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM

11A.5

Influence of Tropical Pacific Winds at Different Timescales on ENSO Evolution

Antonietta Capotondi, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and L. Ricciardulli and P. D. Sardeshmukh

Recorded Presentation

11A.6

Human-Forced Changes to ENSO-Driven Rainfall Anomalies

Session 11B

Interactions between Energetics, Dynamics, and Hydrology in Climate

Location: 609 (Washington State Convention Center )

Host: 29th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Cochairs: Kerry H. Cook, Univ. of Texas; Justin J. Wettstein, Oregon State University

4:00 PM

11B.1

The Impacts of the Biases of Cloud-Radiative-Dynamics Interactions on Global Climate Models in CMIP3 and CMIP5

J. L. Li, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and W. L. Lee, D. E. Waliser, T. Lee, E. Suhas, E. J. Fetzer, Q. Yue, J. Y. Yu, and Y. Wang

4:15 PM

11B.2

What Determines the Meridional Heat Transport? Insights from Varying Rotation Rate Experiments

Xiaojuan Liu, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. Battisti and G. Roe

Recorded Presentation

11B.3

A Multi-Kernel Analysis of Radiative Feedbacks and Forcings on the Hydrological Cycle

4:45 PM

11B.4

Energy Budget Constraints on Climate Sensitivity in Light of Inconstant Climate Feedbacks

Kyle Armour, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA

Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM

11B.5

Global Warming without Global Mean Precipitation Increase?

Marc Salzmann, University of Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany

Recorded Presentation

Handout (1.6 MB)

5:15 PM

11B.6

Changes of Precipitation and Drought Associated with Global Warming

Prashant D. Sardeshmukh, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/ESRL/PSD, Boulder, CO; and A. Wang

Awards Banquet Reception

Location: 4AB (Washington State Convention Center )

5:30 PM

Awards Banquet Reception

Recorded Presentation

97th AMS Awards Banquet

Location: Ballroom 6ABCE (Washington State Convention Center )

7:00 PM

97th AMS Awards Banquet

Recorded Presentation

Session 12A

Interannual, Decadal, and Multidecadal Variability Part I

Location: 605 (Washington State Convention Center )

Host: 29th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Cochairs: Kerry H. Cook, Univ. of Texas; Ross D. Dixon, University of Wisconsin

8:30 AM

12A.1

La Niña-like Mean-State Warming Caused By the Nonlinear ENSO Warming Suppression (NEWS) and Its Implications for Multidecadal SST Variability and Change

Tsubasa Kohyama, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. L. Hartmann

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

12A.2

The AMO as a Driver of Multi-decadal ENSO Variability

Aaron F. Z. Levine, NOAA, Seattle, WA; and M. J. McPhaden and D. M. Frierson

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

12A.3

Multidecadal Indian Ocean Variability and Links to the Pacific

Caroline C. Ummenhofer, WHOI, Woods Hole, MA; and A. Biastoch and C. W. Böning

9:15 AM

12A.4

Identifying and Understanding Regional Differences in Temperature and Precipitation in California Under the Influence of PDO

John P. O'Brien, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA; and T. A. O'Brien

Recorded Presentation

Session 12B

Sub-Seasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) Processes and Predictability Part I

Location: 609 (Washington State Convention Center )

Host: 29th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Cochairs: Michael DeFlorio, JPL; Shih-Yu (Simon) Wang, Utah State Univ.

8:30 AM

12B.1

Predictability of Indian Summer Monsoon by CFSv2: Implication of the Initial Shock Effect

Ravi Shukla, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA; and B. Huang, L. Marx, and J. L. Kinter III

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

12B.2

Subseasonal-Seasonal Predictability and Prediction of Asian Monsoon Rainfalls

Song Yang, Naval Research Laboratory, Guangzhou, China; and T. Zhang

9:00 AM

12B.3

Sub-seasonal Predictability of the Onset and Demise of the Rainy Season over Monsoonal Regions

Rodrigo Bombardi, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA; and K. Pegion, J. L. Kinter III, B. Cash, and J. M. Adams

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

12B.4

How Predictable is the Winter Extremely Cold Days over Temperate East Asia?

Xiao Luo, IPRC, Honolulu, HI; and B. Wang

Exhibit Hall Breakfast

Location: 4AB (Washington State Convention Center )

Session 13A

Interannual, Decadal, and Multidecadal Variability Part II

Location: 605 (Washington State Convention Center )

Host: 29th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Cochairs: Gudrun Magnusdottir, University of California; Ross D. Dixon, University of Wisconsin

10:30 AM

13A.1

Projected and Observed Changes in East African Climate

Kerry H. Cook, Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX; and E. Vizy and S. Chi

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

13A.2

The South Atlantic Subtropical High: Climatology and Interannual Variability

Xiaoming Sun, University of Texas, Austin, TX; and K. H. Cook and E. K. Vizy

11:00 AM

13A.3

Intensity Variations and Environmental Impact of Subtropical North Atlantic Basin PV Streamers

Philippe P. Papin, SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart and R. D. Torn

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

13A.4

Changes in Climate over the South China Sea and Western Pacific Regions on Global Climate

Song Yang, Sun Yat-sen Univ., Guangzhou, China

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

13A.5

Long-term Analysis of the Asynchronicity Between Temperature and Precipitation Maxima in the Great Plains

Paul X. Flanagan, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. B. Basara and X. Xiao

11:45 AM

13A.6

Huang Transform: A Method for Quantifying Nonlinear Interactions in Climate Variability and Change

Zhaohua Wu, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL

Recorded Presentation

Session 13B

Sub-Seasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) Processes and Predictability Part II

Location: 609 (Washington State Convention Center )

Host: 29th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Cochairs: Shih-Yu (Simon) Wang, Utah State Univ.; Johnna Infanti, RSMAS

10:30 AM

13B.1

Three Dimensional Structure and Daily Evolution of Vertically-Coherent Troposphere-Stratosphere Wave Activity Pulses

Mathew Barlow, University of Massachusetts, Lowell, MA; and J. Cohen, J. C. Furtado, and L. Agel

Recorded Presentation

13B.2

Seasonal Prediction Skill of Northern Extratropical Surface Temperature Driven by the Stratosphere

10:45 AM

13B.2A

Influence of Arctic Sea Ice on United States Snowfall

Daria B. Kluver, Central Michigan Univ., Mount Pleasant, MI

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

13B.3

Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Predictability in the NMME

Ben Kirtman, RSMAS, Miami, FL

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

13B.4

The Boreal Winter Madden Julian Oscillation's Influence on Summertime Precipitation in the Greater Caribbean

Scott Curtis, East Carolina University, Greenville, NC; and D. Gamble

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

13B.5

Prediction Skill of Madden-Julian Oscillation in the Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Models and its Modulation by the Stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation

Yuna Lim, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and S. W. Son, A. G. Marshall, and H. H. Hendon

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

13B.6

The Tropospheric Route to Rapid Arctic Warming Events: January 2016 and Trends

Shih-Yu (Simon) Wang, Utah State Univ., Logan, UT; and Y. H. Lin, M. Y. Lee, K. Pegion, and J. Yoon

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (285.7 kB)

Handout (285.7 kB)

Lunch Break

Session 14A

Decadal Variability and Predictability

Location: 605 (Washington State Convention Center )

Host: 29th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

CoChair: Cecilia M. Bitz, Univ. of Washington

1:30 PM

14A.1

Is the IPO Real? What about the PDO?

Ka-Kit Tung, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and X. Chen, K. F. Li, and J. Zhou

1:45 PM

14A.2

Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation Contributions to 20th Century Global Surface Temperature Trends

Gerald Meehl, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and A. Hu, B. Santer, and S. P. Xie

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

14A.3

Why has the Relationship between Indian and Pacific Ocean Decadal Variability Changed in Recent Decades?

Lu Dong, PMEL, Seattle, WA; and M. J. McPhaden

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

14A.4

How Pacific Decadal Variability and Its Impact on North America Hydroclimate Are Changing As a Result of Climate Change?

Yangyang Xu, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and A. Hu

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

14A.5

Multidecadal Fluctuations of the North Atlantic Ocean and Feedback on the Winter Climate in CMIP5 Control Simulations

Gudrun Magnusdottir, University of California, Irvine, CA; and Y. Peings and G. Simpkins

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

14A.6

Multi-decadal Variability in the Sahel and Guinea Coast Regions of Africa

Sharon E. Nicholson, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL

Recorded Presentation

Session 14B

Sub-Seasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) Processes and Predictability Part III

Location: 609 (Washington State Convention Center )

Host: 29th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Chair: Mathew Barlow, Univ. of Massachusetts

1:30 PM

14B.1

Global Predictability and Prediction Skill of Atmospheric Rivers

Michael J. DeFlorio, NASA, Pasadena, CA; and D. E. Waliser and B. Guan

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

14B.2

Modulation of Landfalling Atmospheric River Activity by Northeast Pacific Height Anomalies

Bryan D. Mundhenk, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and E. A. Barnes and E. D. Maloney

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

14B.3

Subseasonal Prediction of Precipitation over California in the Winter of 2016

Alek Anichowski, Columbia University, NY, NY; and S. Wang, A. H. Sobel, and M. K. Tippett

2:15 PM

14B.4

Sub-Seasonal Predictability of Extreme Precipitation in CCSM4 Climate Forecasts

Johnna Infanti, RSMAS, Miami, FL; and B. Kirtman

2:30 PM

14B.5

Flipping the Western United States El Niño Precipitation Pattern during the 2015/16 Winter

Xiaosong Yang, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and G. A. Vecchi, L. Jia, S. Kapnick, T. L. Delworth, R. Gudgel, and S. Underwood

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

14B.6

Storm Tracks and their Influence on High Impact Weather in the Southern Hemisphere Winter

Katherine E. Lukens, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and E. H. Berbery

Recorded Presentation

Coffee Break

Location: Skybridge (Washington State Convention Center )

Session 15A

Climate Projections and Services

Location: 605 (Washington State Convention Center )

Host: 29th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Chair: Daniel J. Vimont, University of Wisconsin

3:30 PM

15A.1

Paris INDCs: Will They Achieve the Goal of the Paris Climate Agreement?

R.J. Salawitch, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and W. Tribett, A. Hope, B. Bennett, and T. Canty

Recorded Presentation

3:45 PM

15A.2

Effects of Statistical Downscaling on Extreme Value Statistics

Dennis Adams-Smith, GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and K. W. Dixon and J. Lanzante

Recorded Presentation

4:00 PM

15A.3

The Characteristics and Sources of Climate Projections Typically Used in Local and Regional Climate Change Assessments for Agriculture, Ecology, and Hydrology

Julie A. Winkler, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI; and Y. Tang and S. Woznicki

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

15A.4

Co-Production of Climate Services: Climate Outlooks for Alaskans

Richard L. Thoman Jr., NOAA, Fairbanks, AK; and T. Buxbaum

Recorded Presentation

15A.5

CO2 Sequestration and Storage in Antarctica: Effects on Global Redistribution

4:30 PM

15A.6

Impact of Climate Change on Forecast Perturbation Growth

Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA; and E. A. Satterfield and J. G. McLay

Recorded Presentation

Session 15B

Regional Climate Variability and Change

Location: 609 (Washington State Convention Center )

Host: 29th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Chair: Gudrun Magnusdottir, University of California

3:30 PM

15B.1

Sensitivity of Projected Changes in Water Availability to Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) Estimates over Western Canada

Yonas B. Dibike, Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC), Victoria, BC, Canada; and B. R. Bonsal and T. Prowse

3:45 PM

15B.2

Trends in Precipitation Over the Central and Northern Plains of the United States

Philip N. Schumacher, South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD; and D. P. Todey

Recorded Presentation

4:00 PM

15B.3

Land Use Land Cover Change Effects on Southern Great Plains Precipitation Patterns

Alexandra L. Caruthers, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and M. S. Van Den Broeke

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

15B.4

Examining Shortwave Radiation Trends in the Northeastern United States

Alexandria Maynard, Lyndon State College, Lyndonville, VT; and A. Fitzpatrick and J. Hanrahan

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

15B.5

Impacts of Climate Change on Lake-Effect Snow in the Great Lakes Region

Kevin Biehl, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. King, R. Gaal, and J. B. Basara

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

15B.6

Changes in Precipitation Extremes in Hawaii and Taiwan Under a Warming Climate

Pao-Shin Chu, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and Y. R. Chen, D. J. Chen, and P. L. Lin

Recorded Presentation

Session 15B 29th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Monday, 23 January 2017

10:30 AM-11:00 AM: Monday, 23 January 2017

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 23 January 2017

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Monday, 23 January 2017

1:30 PM-2:00 PM: Monday, 23 January 2017

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Monday, 23 January 2017

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Monday, 23 January 2017

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Monday, 23 January 2017

5:30 PM-7:30 PM: Monday, 23 January 2017

Tuesday, 24 January 2017

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 24 January 2017

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Tuesday, 24 January 2017

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Wednesday, 25 January 2017

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 25 January 2017

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12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 25 January 2017

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4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 25 January 2017

5:30 PM-6:30 PM: Wednesday, 25 January 2017

7:00 PM-10:00 PM: Wednesday, 25 January 2017

Thursday, 26 January 2017

8:30 AM-9:30 AM: Thursday, 26 January 2017

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12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 26 January 2017

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 26 January 2017

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 26 January 2017

3:30 PM-5:00 PM: Thursday, 26 January 2017

Monday, 23 January 2017

10:30 AM-11:00 AM: Monday, 23 January 2017

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 23 January 2017

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Monday, 23 January 2017

1:30 PM-2:00 PM: Monday, 23 January 2017

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5:30 PM-7:30 PM: Monday, 23 January 2017

Tuesday, 24 January 2017

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 24 January 2017

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4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 24 January 2017

Wednesday, 25 January 2017

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 25 January 2017

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5:30 PM-6:30 PM: Wednesday, 25 January 2017

7:00 PM-10:00 PM: Wednesday, 25 January 2017

Thursday, 26 January 2017

8:30 AM-9:30 AM: Thursday, 26 January 2017

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12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 26 January 2017

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3:30 PM-5:00 PM: Thursday, 26 January 2017