Climate Change and Extreme Precipitation Events in the Iberian Peninsula

The Iberian Peninsula is a region of contrasts that experiences strong spatial and temporal precipitation extremes, ranging from the wet northwestern Cantabric coast to the dry Levante region along the Mediterranean Sea in the southeast. While precipitation in the wet Cantabric coast is associated with the passage of midlatitude cyclones, in the Levante region precipitation can be more episodic and extreme with a few cut-off low precipitation events causing a large proportion of the total annual precipitation. Although heavy precipitation events are likely to increase in many areas of the world, the effect of climate change on extreme precipitation events in the Iberian Peninsula is uncertain.  

In this study we will investigate the effect of climate change on midlatitude cyclones and cut-off lows that produce rainfall extremes in the Iberian Peninsula. We will use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to simulate cases of midlatitude cyclones and cut-off lows that cause extreme precipitation events over the Iberian Peninsula under present and future climate conditions. Future climate simulations will be implemented according to the pseudo global warming (PGW) dynamic downscaling approach, using the WRF regional model and CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) future climate projections under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. Comparison between dynamic, thermodynamic and precipitation fields under present and future climate conditions will shed light on the effect of climate change on extreme precipitation events in the Iberian Peninsula.