Response of Winter Moisture Circulation to the India-Burma Trough and Its Modulation By the South Asian Waveguide

The response of moisture circulation to the daily evolution of India-Burma Trough (IBT) and the modulation of disturbances along the South Asian waveguide are analyzed to seek a potential precursor of winter precipitation over South China. Daily observational precipitation and reanalysis data from ERA-Interim during 1979–2012 are employed. It is found that moisture circulation in response to the IBT is part of zonally oriented wave trains along the South Asian waveguide, but persists longer and migrates farther eastward than other lobes. Cyclonic moisture transport enhances the moisture supply to South China as a strong IBT develops, and shifts eastward abruptly after the peak of IBT with enhanced precipitation shifting from Southwest to Southeast China. This response is a joint effect of synoptic, intraseasonal, and interannual components that show similar wave-train structures, whereas slight differences still occur. The synoptic component shows shorter wavelength, more southerly path, faster phase speed and group velocity, with the signal from the North Atlantic to the Bay of Bengal (BOB) in 6 days, implying that a disturbance over the North Atlantic is a potential precursor of winter precipitation over South China. The synoptic moisture convergence is more intensive than that at other scales upstream except over Southeast Asia, where all components are comparable. This might result from the constrained moisture source from BOB at synoptic scale because of short wavelength, while widespread sources from BOB–western North Pacific (WNP) at other scales as wavelengths are longer.