Decadal Analysis of Future Extreme Climatic Conditions in Southern and Central European Regions

In this study RegCM (a 3D primitive equation model using sigma-coordinate) simulations are used to evaluate the future trends in extreme temperature and precipitation conditions. In addition to the past historical period (1951-2005), simulations continue to 2006-2100 with two very different scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 - based on the radiative forcing change by 2100) using HadGEM2 global model outputs as initial and lateral boundary conditions (ICBC). Our RegCM4.3 experiments at 50 km horizontal resolution cover the MED-44 CORDEX area including the extended Mediterranean region of Europe (30°-50°N, 10°W-45°E). On the basis of 50 km RegCM runs we aim to provide detailed regional scale climate projection results for the Carpathian Region and its vicinity. For this purpose, further downscaling is necessary using 10 km as horizontal resolution for a smaller domain covering Central Europe with special focus on the Carpathian Region. These experiments will be the basis of the Hungarian national climate and adaptation strategies for detailed regional scale analysis and specific impact studies.

Our analysis compares the estimated temperature and precipitation changes with special focus on extreme conditions for the following 10 subregions of the MED-44 CORDEX area: Iberian Peninsula, Apennine Peninsula, Balkan Region, Asia Minor, East European Plain, Middle European Plain, Carpathian Basin, Carpathian Mountains, Alps, Western Europe.