15A.1 Paris INDCs: Will They Achieve the Goal of the Paris Climate Agreement?

Thursday, 26 January 2017: 3:30 PM
605 (Washington State Convention Center )
Ross J. Salawitch, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and W. Tribett, A. Hope, B. Bennett, and T. P. Canty

We provide an overview of the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) submitted prior to the 21st meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, which are the backbone of the Paris Climate Agreement. Two flavors of INDCs were submitted: unconditional (i.e., firm commitments) and conditional (commitments contingent on financial flow and/or technology transfer). Generally, the Paris INDCs extend to year 2030. However, achievement of either the target (1.5 °C warming) or upper limit (2.0 °C warming) of the Paris Agreement requires consideration of emissions out to 2060, due to the projected rise in energy demand, growing populations, and rising standards of living. We therefore project global carbon emissions out to year 2060, and compare to various RCP scenarios of IPCC (2013). These projections will be used to assess whether the target (1.5 °C warming) or upper limit (2.0 °) of the Paris Climate Agreement will be met.
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