Water Isotope Ratios and Large-Scale Atmospheric Flow as Predictors of the Madden-Julian Oscillation

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the major mode of the intraseasonal variability in the tropical atmosphere, yet forecasting its initiation continues to elude the scientific community.  Three prior studies, Kurita et al. (2011), Berkelhammer et al. (2012), and Tuinenburg et al. (2015), have investigated water isotopic measurements to deduce key mechanisms and the sequence of hydrological processes associated with the MJO.  This study endeavors to further these analyses by establishing an additional link with the large-scale flow by utilizing data from the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) and NASA’s Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) dataset. Combined, studying the large-scale atmospheric flow and transport of water through isotopic analyses identifies a mechanism that preconditions the atmosphere prior to convective onset of the MJO allowing for predictive capabilities greater than two weeks prior to initiation.