11A.4 New Metrics for the Ocean Performance of ESPC Extended Range Reforecasts

Wednesday, 25 January 2017: 4:45 PM
Conference Center: Tahoma 4 (Washington State Convention Center )
James G. Richman, Florida State Univ., Corvallis, OR; and P. Hogan, J. F. Shriver, and L. Zamudio

One goal for the Navy Earth System Prediction Capability is producing extended range forecasts of the coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice-surface gravity wave model.  The coupled model is built upon the independent ocean, atmosphere, sea ice and surface gravity wave forecast systems.  The existing forecast systems produce short range forecasts with performance metrics suitable for these short range forecasts.  However, as the forecast range exceeds the traditional forecast horizon, the traditional metrics are no longer appropriate.  As a lead up to the operational forecast system an extensive reanalysis and reforecast effort has been initiated.  A new automated metrics framework has been integrated to the forecast system processing.  The system allows the rapid deployment of new metrics to monitor the extended range forecasts produced during the reforecasting tests.  These new metrics bridge the traditional short range forecast scorecards and the average metrics used in climate systems.  Preliminary results from the first year of the reanalysis/reforecast will be presented showing consistency of the ocean model performance across a variety of metrics for the entire year.
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