Program: 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (97th American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting)

Program Chairs: Alexander O. Tardy , NOAA/NWS ; Rebecca Adams-Selin , AER

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Monday, 23 January 2017

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10:30 AM-11:00 AM: Monday, 23 January 2017

Coffee Break (6th Floor Foyer)

Location: Washington State Convention Center

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 23 January 2017

Session 1A

Forecasting Techniques: Aviation, Fire Weather, and Hydrologic Forecasting

Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 3 (Washington State Convention Center )

Host: 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Cochairs: Alexander O. Tardy, NOAA/NWS; Jennifer Hegarty, AER

11:00 AM

1A.1

Capturing Plume Rise and Dispersion with WRF-Fire: an RxCADRE Case Study

Nadya Moisseeva, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and R. B. Stull

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

1A.2

Convective Weather Forecasts and Applications for Aviation

Haig Iskenderian, MIT Lincoln Laboratory, Lexington, MA; and M. S. Veillette, M. Matthews, J. Venuti, C. J. Mattioli, P. M. Lamey, E. P. Hassey, and R. Bass

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

1A.3

GEFS Precipitation Forecasts and the Implications of Statistical Downscaling over the Western United States

Wyndam R Lewis, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and W. J. Steenburgh

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

1A.4

A Synoptic Comparison of Two High-Impact Predecessor Rainfall Events: Tropical Storm Lee/Hurricane Katia of September 2011 and Hurricane Joaquin of October 2015

Michael L. Jurewicz Sr., NOAA/NWS Weather Forecast Office, Johnson City, NY; and C. M. Gitro, S. J. kusselson, J. M. Forsythe, A. S. Jones, S. kidder, D. Bikos, and E. J. Szoke

Recorded Presentation

Session 1B

Model Center Overviews, Part I

Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 4 (Washington State Convention Center )

Host: 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Cochairs: Rebecca Adams-Selin, AER; R. Bruce Telfeyan, 557th Weather Wing

Paper 1B.1 will now present at 11:30 a.m.and Paper 1B.2 will now present at 11:00 a.m.

11:00 AM

1B.2

Numerical Weather Prediction at the Met Office: Recent Progress and Future Direction (Invited Presentation)

Dale Barker, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

1B.1

Planned Upgrades to the NCEP Operational Modeling Suite

Bill Lapenta, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, MD

Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Monday, 23 January 2017

Lunch Break

1:30 PM-2:00 PM: Monday, 23 January 2017

Lecture 1

Walter Orr Roberts Lecture

Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 2 (Washington State Convention Center )

Hosts: (Joint between the 33rd Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 31st Conference on Hydrology; the 29th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; the 26th Symposium on Education; the 21st Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface; the 19th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 18th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the 15th Conference on Artificial and Computational Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences; the 15th Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 14th Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography; the 14th Conference on Space Weather; the 13th Annual Symposium on New Generation Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the Major Weather Impacts of 2016; the 12th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the Ninth Symposium on Aerosol–Cloud–Climate Interactions; the Eighth Conference on Weather, Climate, Water and the New Energy Economy; the Eighth Conference on Environment and Health; the Eighth Symposium on Lidar Atmospheric Applications; the Eighth Conference on the Meteorological Application of Lightning Data; the Seventh Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the Seventh Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using Python; the Fifth Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; the Fifth Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation: Enhancing Our Nation’s Readiness, Responsiveness, and Resilience to High Impact Weather Events; the Fifth Symposium on Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Processes, Prediction and Impact; the Second Symposium on US-International Partnerships; and the 13th Symposium of the Urban Environment )

Speaker: Cynthia Rosenzweig, NASA

1:30 PM

L1.1

Developing Climate Risk Information for Cities: Key Findings from UCCRN ARC3.2

Cynthia Rosenzweig, NASA, New York City, NY

Recorded Presentation

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Monday, 23 January 2017

Session 2A

Winter Weather I: Mesoscale

Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 3 (Washington State Convention Center )

Host: 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Cochairs: David M. Schultz, Univ. of Helsinki/FMI; Paul J. Kocin, NOAA/NWS/NCEP

1:30 PM

2A.1

Hydrometeor Lofting in Banded Snowfall Events

Gary M. Lackmann, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and G. Thompson

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

2A.2

A Surface Dynamic and Thermodynamic Analysis of Long-Duration Freezing Rain Events

Christopher D. McCray, McGill University, Montréal, QC, Canada; and J. R. Gyakum and E. H. Atallah

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

2A.3

Precipitation Enhancement during Lake-Effect Storms over the Tug Hill Plateau: Climatological and Field Program Perspectives

Peter G. Veals, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and W. J. Steenburgh and L. Campbell

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

2A.4

The Uncertainty of Precipitation-type Observations and its Effect on the Validation of Forecast Precipitation Type

Heather D. Reeves, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK

Recorded Presentation

Session 2B

Model Center Overviews, Part II

Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 4 (Washington State Convention Center )

Host: 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Cochairs: R. Bruce Telfeyan, 557th Weather Wing; Andrew L. Molthan, NASA Marshall Space Flight Center

1:30 PM

2B.1

NWP Forecasts at ECMWF–Recent Progress and Future Plans

Tim D. Hewson, ECMWF, Reading,, United Kingdom; and D. S. Richardson

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

2B.2

The USAF GALWEM: Improving Military Decision Making, Advancing National Capability

Ralph O. Stoffler, U.S. Air Force, Washington, DC

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

2B.3

Overview of the Navy's Coupled Global and Mesoscale Modeling System

James Hansen, NRL, Monterey, CA

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Monday, 23 January 2017

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

Location: 4E (Washington State Convention Center )

Poster Session 1

WAF/NWP Posters: Weather Phenomena, Observations, and Forecasting

Location: 4E (Washington State Convention Center )

Host: 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Cochairs: Rebecca Adams-Selin, AER; Alexander O. Tardy, NOAA/NWS

The Relationship Between the Structure of Low-Level Jets and Precipitation Extremes

Derek Hodges, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and Z. Pu

Synthetic Application of Multiple Intensified Observation in the Analysis of Nonlinear Mesoscale Convection System

Xiaofang Wang, CMA, Wuhan, China

Use of Operational Data to Reveal the Morphology and Environmental Properties of Warm-Season Mesoscale Convective Systems in Japan

Tetsuya Takemi, Kyoto University, Uji, Japan; and T. Unuma

Handout (1.2 MB)

A Synoptic Climatology of Combined Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events

Kyle J. Pallozzi, SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart and S. J. Weiss

Critical Forecast Elements for Recent Southeast Texas Flood Events

Lance Wood, NOAA, Dickinson, TX; and D. Reilly

Poster 87 will now be presented as 9B.5A

Comparing Tornado and False Alarm Events in the Rapid City Forecast Area

Matthew B. Wilson, Valparaiso University, Valparaiso, IN; and M. J. Bunkers

The Effect of Elevated Thunderstorms on Mesoscale/Synoptic Scale Boundaries

Joshua S. Kastman, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and P. S. Market

Dynamic Ensemble Model Evaluation of Elevated Thunderstorms sampled by PRECIP via MET and MODE

Joshua S. Kastman, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and P. S. Market

Poster 91 will now be presented as 9B.6A

EPEC: A Tool for Anticipating Excessive Precipitation with Elevated Thunderstorms

Alzina Foscato, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and P. S. Market and N. I. Fox

Downdraft Convective Inhibition as a Means to Discriminate Elevated Convection

Patrick S. Market, Univ. of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and S. Rochette, J. Shewchuk, N. I. Fox, R. J. Difani, J. S. Kastman, and C. B. Henson

A Comparison of the Life Cycles of Elevated and Surface-Based Convection

Katharine Wunsch, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and N. I. Fox and P. S. Market

Distinguishing Elevated from Surface-Based Convection Using Convergence Columns Identified from Dual-Polarization Doppler Radar Data

Ryan J. Difani, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and N. I. Fox and P. S. Market

Factors that Influence the Growth of Supercells into MCSs after Sunset

Keenan C. Eure, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and J. M. Peters and R. S. Schumacher

The Role of the Nocturnal Low-Level Jet in Convection Initiation over Eastern Kansas on 2 June 2015

Joshua G. Gebauer, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and A. Shapiro, E. Fedorovich, and P. Klein

A Simple Method of Depicting Advections as Vectors with Applications to Frontal Diagnosis

David A Barber, NWS, Anchorage, AK

A Reflectivity Climatology Study of the Contiguous United States Using the Multi-Year Reanalysis of Remotely Sensed Storms (MYRORSS)

Brandon R. Smith, OU/CIMMS and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and K. L. Ortega, A. E. Reinhart, M. C. Mahalik, and T. M. Smith

100

The Minimum Horizontal Length Scale When Evaluating Quasi-Geostrophic Omega

J. Michael Battalio, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and J. L. Dyer

101

Comparison of ERA-Interim, CFSR, MERRA-2 and JRA-55 Reanalyses with Observed Temperatures, Wind Speeds and Precipitation over British Columbia, Canada

Pedro I. Odon, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and G. L. West and R. B. Stull

102

A Preliminary Survey of Forecaster Decision Making in the Blended Model Era

Matthew Day, NOAA/NWSFO, Norman, OK; and T. Lindley

103

Forecasting California Precipitation Using a Cointegrated Relationship with the North Pacific High Sea Level Pressure Anomaly

John S. Rath, Tetra Tech, Inc., Lafayette, CA; and M. Costa-Cabral and S. B. Roy

104

Investigating Orographic-Modification of Precipitation in Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest Using Water Stable Isotopes

Eric P. Kelsey, Plymouth State Univ., Plymouth, NH; and M. D. Cann

105

Developing the National Blend of Models for National Weather Service Operations

David P. Ruth, NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and D. T. Myrick and M. Peroutka

Handout (1.2 MB)

106

Assessment of Post-Processing Methods for Daily High and Low Temperature Prediction

Maxwell A Gawryla, The Weather Company, an IBM Business, Andover, MA; and J. K. Williams, P. P. Neilley, J. P. Koval, and S. Marshall

107

Mesoscale Forcing of Lake-Effect Precipitation over Lake Ontario during OWLeS IOP2b

W. James Steenburgh, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and L. Campbell

108

An Evaluation of Precipitation Forecasts during the Olympex field Campaign of 2015-16

Robert Conrick, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. F. Mass

109

Dual-Polarization Radar Observations of Precipitation Processes in Complex Terrain during OLYMPEX

Angela K. Rowe, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and R. A. Houze Jr., H. C. Barnes, and M. M. Chaplin

Handout (33.3 MB)

110

Evaluation of satellite based rain rate retrieval during OLYMPEX

Steven A. Rutledge, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and B. Dolan and W. Xu

111

Precipitation and Propagation Characteristics of Narrow Cold-Frontal Rainbands during the OLYMPEX Field Campaign

Deanna A. Hence, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and A. Hunzinger

112

Utilizing Hazard Services Concepts for Product Creation at the Aviation Weather Testbed

Austin Cross, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Aviation Weather Center, Kansas City, MO; and B. R. J. Schwedler, N. Hardin, and T. L. Hansen

Handout (18.4 MB)

113

Evaluation of Satellite Precipitation Products in the Chehalis River Basin during Winter 2015-2016 Using OLYMPEX Data

Qian Cao, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA; and D. R. Gergel, A. Mehran, B. Nijssen, W. A. Petersen, and D. P. Lettenmaier

114

Quantifying the 2015 Glacier Decline in Olympic National Park, Washington, USA

Justin M. Pflug, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and W. R. Currier, D. E. Shean, W. Baccus, J. Riedel, M. Larrabee, and J. D. Lundquist

115

Observations of the Vertical Variability of Raindrop Size Distributions during OLYMPE

116

Remote Sensing of Microphysical Processes during OLYMPEX

117

Synoptic and Orographic Control of Observed Drop Size Distribution Regimes during the OLYMPEX Field Campaign

Joseph Zagrodnik, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and L. A. McMurdie and R. A. Houze Jr.

Handout (23.2 MB)

118

Understanding Atypical Mid-Level Wind Speed Maxima in Hurricane Eyewalls

Daniel P. Stern, UCAR, Monterey, CA; and J. D. Doyle, G. H. Bryan, and J. D. Kepert

119

Connections between Outflow, Intensity, and Inertial Stability in Hurricane Joaquin (2015)

Audrey J. Channell, United States Naval Academy, Annapolis, MD; and M. Hanson, E. R. Sanabia, and B. S. Barrett

120

Interaction between Hurricane Joaquin and the Large-Scale Environment based on an Eddy Kinetic Energy Budget

Zachary Q. Barthelmes, U.S. Naval Academy, Annapolis, MD; and E. C. Field and E. R. Sanabia

121

Overview of the Tropical Cyclone Intensity Experiment: High-Resolution Observations of Hurricanes Patricia, Joaquin, and Marty

James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. R. Moskaitis, R. Ferek, and J. Feldmeier

Handout (15.2 MB)

122

Evaluating WRF Simulations of Planetary Boundary Layer Processes during the Baltimore–Washington, DC DISCOVER-AQ Field Campaign

Jennifer Hegarty, AER, Lexington, MA; and J. Henderson, J. Lewis Jr., E. McGrath-Spangler, A. J. Scarino, R. Adams-Selin, R. Ferrare, E. J. Welton, and P. L. DeCola

Handout (4.6 MB)

123

Analysis of Warm Season Low-Level Jets Along the Southern New England Coast Using IMPOWR Field Data

Keenan Fryer, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and B. A. Colle

Handout (5.0 MB)

124

Differences by PBL Scheme in WRF Forecasts of the Nocturnal Boundary-Layer and Associated LLJ based on a Study of Select PECAN Cases

David E. Jahn, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus Jr.

125

Verification of Near-Storm Environment Forecasts Using MPEX Upsonde Observations

Christopher A. Kerr, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. J. Stensrud and X. Wang

126

Impacts of UAS Data on Thunderstorm Forecasts during PRECIP

George Limpert, Univ. of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and A. L. Houston

127

Severe Wind Damage Associated with Winter Convection in Southern California

Stefanie N Sullivan, NWS, San Diego, CA

129

Synoptic Climatology of Lake-Effect Snowfall Events in Indiana: What's the Best Recipe?

Craig A. Clark, Valparaiso University, Valparaiso, IN; and K. H. Goebbert

An Analysis of a Mesoscale Features during IOP 4C of the VORTEX-SE Field Campaign

130

Forecast Evaluation for Convective Features

Michael E. Baldwin, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN; and L. C. Dawson

131

Investigating the Synpotic and Mesoscale Features in Six Selected Heavy Snow Events-Jet Streak Circulations and Latent, Sensible Heat Fluxes

Ralph Johnson, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO

Manuscript (9.5 MB)

Poster 132 will now be presented as 584A

133

Observed Characteristics of Mesoscale Banding in Coastal Northeast U.S. Snow Storms

Nicole P. Hoban, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and S. E. Yuter, L. Tomkins, S. A. Ganetis, M. A. Miller, L. Lovell, S. R. Rhodes, E. Scott, and B. A. Colle

Handout (1.9 MB)

134

Riming Parameterization Impacts on the Microphysical Evolution of a Northeast Winter Cyclone and the Associated Snowbands

Steven Michael Naegele, Pennsylvania State University/Significant Opportunities in Atmospheric Research and Science, University Park, PA; and T. Eidhammer, G. Thompson, M. R. Kumjian, and D. J. Stensrud

135

Sensitivity of Numerical Simulations of an Ice Fog Event to PBL and Surface Layer Parameterization Schemes with WRF model

Feimin Zhang, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT ; and Z. Pu

136

Mechanisms Contributing to the Tug Hill Lake-Effect Precipitation Maximum during OWLeS IOP2b

Leah Campbell, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and W. J. Steenburgh

137

Lake-Effect Mode and Precipitation Enhancement over the Tug Hill Plateau during OWLeS IOP2b

Leah Campbell, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and W. J. Steenburgh, P. G. Veals, T. W. Letcher, and J. R. Minder

138

Environmental Conditions Associated With Different Snow Band Structures within Northeast U.S. Winter Storms

Sara A. Ganetis, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and B. A. Colle, N. P. Hoban, and S. E. Yuter

Handout (6.1 MB)

139

Investigation of Multi-bands in the Comma Head of the 26-27 December 2010 Northeast U.S. Winter Storm

Sara A. Ganetis, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and B. A. Colle, N. P. Hoban, and S. E. Yuter

Handout (3.5 MB)

140

A Climatology of Snow Squalls in New England

Frank P. Colby Jr., Univ. of Massachusetts, Lowell, MA; and D. W. Coe

141

Influence of Multi-lake Connection on Lake-effect Snowfall Totals

Carrie E. Lang, SUNY, Geneseo, NY; and E. A. Jones and N. F. Laird

142

Weather Regime-Dependent Predictability: Sequentially Linked High-Impact Weather Events over the United States during March 2016

Lance F. Bosart, SUNY, Albany, NY; and A. C. Winters and D. Keyser

143

Comparisons between Canadian Limited Area Model (LAM) Simulations of the Lake Breeze and Lidar, Radar and Mesonet Measurements during the 2015 Pan American and Parapan American Games in Toronto

Armin Dehghan, EC, Toronto, ON, Canada; and Z. Mariani, S. Leroyer, P. Joe, S. Bélair, and D. Sills

144

Development of Real-Time Multi-Model Verification Website for Tropical Cyclones

Hao Jin, NRL, Monterey, CA

145

The Impact of Warm Conveyor Belt Forecast Errors on Variability in the Downstream Waveguide

Jeremy D. Berman, University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and R. D. Torn

146

Skill of GEFS Medium-Range Reforecasts for Rossby Wave Breaking Associated with Extreme Precipitation in the Central and Eastern U.S

Benjamin J. Moore, SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart and D. Keyser

147

A Study of Significant Tornadoes Across the High Plains

Sam Ng, Metropolitan State University, Denver, CO; and T. K. Croan

148

Secondary Eyewall Forecast in HWRF

Sergio Abarca, IMSG and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and L. Zhu, A. Mehra, and V. Tallapragada

149

Warm-Season Stationary Fronts East of the Rocky Mountains: Interannual and Interseasonal Distribution and Variability

Nicholas D. Metz, Hobart and William Smith Colleges, Geneva, NY; and P. K. Capute, J. O. Piersante, and E. G. Hoffman

150

The Importance of Wave Break Events for Synoptic Scale Buildups of Zonal Available Potential Energy

Kevin A. Bowley, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and J. R. Gyakum and E. H. Atallah

151

Analysis of Late Summer Heat Waves in the Northeast US

Tomer Burg, SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart

152

Development of a Waterspout Sounding Climatology for the Florida Keys Wet Season

Andrew Devanas, NWS, Key West, FL; and K. Kasper, S. Daida, and M. Bloemer

Manuscript (3.2 MB)

Handout (3.1 MB)

153

Simulation of an Extreme Off Season Rainy Event over Senegal Using WRF ARW Model: A focus on dynamic, thermodynamic processes and predictability

Abdoulaye Sarr, National Meteorological Service of Senegal, Dakar-Fann, Senegal

154

Three-Dimensional Structure of Synoptic Waves over West Africa based on Empirical Orthogonal Functions

Yuan-Ming Cheng, SUNY, Albany, NY; and C. D. Thorncroft and G. N. Kiladis

155

Impact of Radar Data Assimilation on a Severe Storm Study in Brazil

Rafael Toshio Inouye, SIMEPAR - Parana Meteorological System, Curitiba, Brazil; and L. Calvetti, J. E. Goncalves, B. B. Maske, R. L. Neundorf, C. Beneti, F. L. R. Diniz, E. P. Vendrasco, D. L. Herdies, L. G. G. D. Goncalves, and A. F. Leite

156

How to Build a Multi-Mode Mesoscale Convective System: Requirements of an MCS with Simultaneous Regions of Forward and Backward Propagation

Stacey M. Hitchcock, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and R. S. Schumacher

157

The Predictability of Northern Hemispheric Blocking using an Ensemble Forecast System

DeVondria D. Reynolds, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and A. R. Lupo and A. D. Jensen

158

Downstream Predictability of the Path and Survival of Severe Wind Producing MCSs and Derechos using RUC Analysis Data

Russell G. Danielson, University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI; and P. J. Roebber

159

Characterizing and Predicting Along-Coast and Diurnal Marine Stratus Variability on the U.S. West Coast

Aaron Updike, Valparaiso University, Valparaiso, IN; and W. Nuss

Handout (9.3 MB)

160

Sensitivity of Model Verification Results to Object Identification Parameters Using Method for Object-based Diagnostic Evaluation – Time Domain

Shao Wen (Amy) Chen, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and A. Anderson and S. Tessendorf

Handout (1.7 MB)

161

Modeling the Nonlocal Effects of Summer Growing Season Irrigation in the Great Plains

Allison Bogusz, Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX; and B. Ancell

162

Heavy Precipitation in the Oregon Coast Range: A Numerical Modeling Sensitivity Study

David R Bright, NWS, Portland, OR; and J. F. Pyle and C. R. Neuman

Handout (1.9 MB)

163

Undergraduate Forecast Skill by Participation Time in the WxChallenge National Weather Forecasting Contest: 2005 – 2016

Nicholas J. Eckstein, Ball State University, Muncie, IN

Handout (1.2 MB)

164

Verification of QPF Forecasts from the HRRR and RUC

Zainab Ali, NOAA, Greensboro, NC; and T. Dankers

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Monday, 23 January 2017

Session 3A

Winter Weather II: Synoptic

Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 3 (Washington State Convention Center )

Host: 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Cochairs: Heather D. Reeves, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL; Martin A. Baxter, Central Michigan University

4:00 PM

3A.1

Northeast Snowstorms Volume 3: The 21st Century Update

Paul J. Kocin, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, MD; and L. W. Uccellini

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

3A.2

Linkages Between the Equatorward Transport of Tropopause Polar Vortices and the Development of Cold Air Outbreaks

Kevin A. Biernat, SUNY, Albany, NY; and D. Keyser and L. F. Bosart

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

3A.3

Model Comparison of the 22-24 January 2016 Nor'easter

Holly M. Mallinson, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and S. D. Nicholls and A. E. Emory

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

3A.4

Strong Extratropical Cyclones leading to Noteworthy Cool-Season Extreme Weather Events over Central and Eastern North America

Alicia M. Bentley, SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart and D. Keyser

Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM

3A.5

Strong Winds in Extratropical Cyclones: Sting Jets and Cold Conveyor Belts

David M. Schultz, University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom

Handout (11.1 MB)

5:15 PM

3A.6

The Sensitivity to Initial Conditions of Several High-Impact Winter Storm Events of Varying Levels of Predictability

Alexander M Goldstein, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and B. T. Hoover and M. C. Morgan

Recorded Presentation

Session 3B

Updates on Global and Mesoscale Models

Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 4 (Washington State Convention Center )

Host: 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Cochairs: Jonathan Porter, AccuWeather, Inc; David Ruth, NOAA/NWS

4:00 PM

3B.1

Next Generation NWP Using a Spectral Element Dynamical Core

James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and P. A. Reinecke, K. C. Viner, S. Gabersek, M. Martini, D. D. Flagg, J. Michalakes, D. R. Ryglicki, and F. X. Giraldo

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

3B.2

Evaluation of the May 2016 GFS Upgrade

Glenn H. White, EMC, College Park, MD; and V. Tallapragada, F. Yang, R. Treadon, T. A. Dorian, P. Bhattacharjee, S. Saha, and J. S. Woollen

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

3B.3

Improving Consistency, Accuracy and Stability of the Global Environmental Multiscale Atmospheric Model

Syed Zahid Husain, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Dorval, Canada; and C. Girard

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

3B.4

Mesoscale Modeling Development at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction : Version 4 of the NAM Forecast System and Scenarios for the Evolution to a High-Resolution Ensemble Forecast System

Eric Rogers, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and J. R. Carley, B. S. Ferrier, E. Aligo, G. Gayno, Z. Janjic, Y. Lin, S. Liu, G. P. Lou, M. Pyle, W. S. Wu, Y. Wu, and G. J. DiMego

Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM

3B.5

Expanding the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) from Deterministic to Ensemble Data Assimilation, Forecasts and Post-Processing

Curtis R. Alexander, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and D. C. Dowell, T. Alcott, I. Jankov, T. Ladwig, M. Hu, J. Beck, J. B. Olson, T. G. Smirnova, J. Kenyon, G. Grell, S. G. Benjamin, S. Weygandt, J. Brown, E. P. James, T. L. Smith, and J. A. Hamilton

Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM

3B.6

U.S. Numerical Weather Prediction: A Report Card

Clifford F. Mass, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA

Recorded Presentation

5:30 PM-7:30 PM: Monday, 23 January 2017

Reception and Exhibits Opening

Location: 4AB (Washington State Convention Center )

7:00 PM-9:30 PM: Monday, 23 January 2017

Third Annual Speed Networking Event for Students and Early Career Professionals

Location: Atrium Lobby (Washington State Convention Center )

Tuesday, 24 January 2017

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8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 24 January 2017

Session 4A

Forecasting Techniques: Winter and Severe Precipitation Systems

Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 3 (Washington State Convention Center )

Host: 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Cochairs: Jason E. Nachamkin, NRL; Tara Jensen, NCAR/RAL and Developmental Testbed Center

8:30 AM

4A.1

Verification and Analysis of Impact-Based Warnings: Assessing the Performance of Quantitative Hazard Forecasts in the Transition toward the FACETs Paradigm

C. A. M. Gerlach, NSSL, Norman, OK; and A. Gerard and K. L. Nemunaitis-Berry

Recorded Presentation

4A.2

Analysis of Convective Mode in Severe Thunderstorm Events across Eastern Parts of the Central and Southern Great Plains

9:00 AM

4A.3

The Sensitivity of Deep Convection Initiation to the Vertical Shear of the Preconvective Environment

Adam L. Houston, Univ. of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

4A.4

The Probabilistic Storm Total Snowfall Forecast Experiment: 2015-16 Results and Future Plans

Jeff S. Waldstreicher, NOAA/NWS, Bohemia, NY; and D. B. Radell, K. W. Johnson, J. Guiney, and R. Watling

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

4A.5

A Morphing-based Technique for the Verification of Ensemble Forecasts of Precipitation Events Associated with Winter Storms

Fan Han, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and I. Szunyogh

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

4A.6

Forecasting the Inland Penetration of Lake-Effect Long-Lake-Axis Parallel Snowbands

Daniel T. Eipper, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and G. S. Young, S. J. Greybush, and S. Saslo

Recorded Presentation

Session 4B

New or Improved Parameterizations

Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 4 (Washington State Convention Center )

Host: 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Cochairs: Aaron Naeger, Univ. of Missouri; Andrew L. Molthan, NASA Marshall Space Flight Center

8:30 AM

4B.1

Addressing a High-Altitude Cirrus Deficit in the Thompson Aerosol-Aware Microphysics Scheme

Jared A. Lee, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and T. Eidhammer and G. Thompson

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

4B.2

Different Behaviors of Moisture and Heat Fluxes across the Terra Incognita

Timothy S. Sliwinski, Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX; and S. L. Kang

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

4B.3

Improving the Representation of Convective Storms in the Unified Model at 1.5 km to 50 m Gridlength

Kirsty E. Hanley, UKMO, Reading, United Kingdom; and H. W. Lean, C. E. Halliwell, A. Stirling, and M. Whitall

9:15 AM

4B.4

The New Ferrier-Aligo Microphysics in the NCEP 3-km NAM Nest

Eric Aligo, EMC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA and I.M. Systems Group, Inc., College Park, MD; and B. S. Ferrier, G. Thompson, J. R. Carley, E. Rogers, and G. DiMego

Recorded Presentation

Handout (1.2 MB)

4B.5

The Impact of Temporally and Spatially Varying Prescribed Aerosols on Seasonal Precipitation Patterns using Scale-Aware Microphysics

9:45 AM

4B.6

Using Aerosol and Chemistry Modules of Different Complexity in a Global Model to Look at the Impact of Aerosol Predictions on Numerical Weather Prediction

Georg A. Grell, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and L. Zhang, S. A. McKeen, R. Ahmadov, and S. Sun

Recorded Presentation

Themed Joint Session 5

Critical and Missing Observations

Location: 607 (Washington State Convention Center )

Hosts: (Joint between the 21st Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface; and the 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction )

Chair: Sharan Majumdar, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS

8:30 AM

TJ5.1

The NASA CYGNSS Satellite Constellation for Tropical Cyclone Observations

Christopher S. Ruf, Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and R. Atlas, P. Chang, M. P. Clarizia, J. L. Garrison, S. Gleason, S. J. Katzberg, Z. Jelenak, J. T. Johnson, S. J. Majumdar, A. O'Brien, D. J. Posselt, D. provost, A. Ridley, R. Rose, F. Said, J. Scherrer, S. Soisuvarn, and V. Zavorotny

Recorded Presentation

Handout (4.1 MB)

8:45 AM

TJ5.2

The Tropics Smallsat Tropical Cyclone Mission: High Temporal Resolution Microwave Imagery As Part of Nasa's Third Earth Venture-Instrument (EVI-3) Program

William J. Blackwell, MIT Lincoln Laboratory, Lexington, MA; and S. A. Braun, R. Bennartz, C. S. Velden, M. DeMaria, R. Atlas, J. P. Dunion, F. D. Marks Jr., and R. F. Rogers

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

TJ5.3

GFS Model Dropouts and Improving Satellite Observation Quality Control

Jordan C. Alpert, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, MD; and V. K. Kumar, A. Eichmann, and S. A. Boukabara

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

TJ5.4

OSSE Evaluation of Rapid-Response Ocean Profile Surveys Prior to Hurricanes Edouard and Gonzalo

G. R. Halliwell Jr., NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and M. F. Mehari, V. H. Kourafalou, R. Atlas, H. S. Kang, M. Le Henaff, and Y. S. Androulidakis

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

TJ5.5

Impact Assessment of Geostationary Microwave Sounders on NOAA Global NWP System Through Global Observational System Simulation Experiment (OSSE)

Narges Shahroudi, NOAA/NESDIS/STAR, College Park, MD; and Y. Zhou, I. Moradi, K. Ide, and S. A. Boukabara

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

TJ5.6

Impacts of an Airborne Doppler Wind Lidar on Tropical Cyclone Analyses and Forecasts

Lisa Bucci, University of Miami and NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and G. D. Emmitt, C. O'Handley, J. Zhang, K. Ryan, and R. Atlas

Recorded Presentation

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Tuesday, 24 January 2017

Coffee Break

Location: 4AB (Washington State Convention Center )

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 24 January 2017

Session 5A

Forecasting Tools I: Satellite Applications; Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts; Decision Support Services

Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 3 (Washington State Convention Center )

Host: 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Cochairs: Sam Ng, Metropolitan State University; Aaron Naeger, Univ. of Alabama

10:30 AM

5A.1

Investigating a New Fire Weather Index Using Reanalysis Data

Alan F. Srock, Saint Cloud State Univ., Saint Cloud, MN; and J. J. Charney, B. Potter, and S. L. Goodrick

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

5A.2

Hourly Precipitation Potential Index - a Pragmatic Approach to Communicate Precipitation Timing

David P. Ruth, NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and T. L. Huntemann

Recorded Presentation

Handout (1.9 MB) Handout (3.6 MB)

11:00 AM

5A.3

Forecasting Location and Magnitude of Thunderstorms Across Coastal Regions, Mountain Ranges and Deserts During the Southwest Monsoon in Southern California

Alexander O. Tardy, NOAA/NWS, San Diego, CA

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

5A.4

The Impact of Entrainment on the Likelihood of Convective Initiation: Dilute CAPE as a Forecasting Tool

Joseph Slezak, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ; and S. G. Decker

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

5A.5

The Impact of Satellite Resolution in Identification of Hail Swaths

Philip N. Schumacher, NWS, Sioux Falls, SD; and K. Gallo, J. M. Boustead, and A. Ferguson

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

5A.6

Initial Response Products Using Optical and SAR Imagery from Earth Observing Platforms for Decision Support Services (DSS)

Jordan R. Bell, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and A. L. Molthan

Recorded Presentation

Session 5B

NOAA Next Generation Global Prediction System

Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 4 (Washington State Convention Center )

Host: 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Cochairs: Rusty Benson, NOAA/GFDL; Clark Evans, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee; Yi Ming, GFDL

10:30 AM

5B.1

The Next Generation Global Prediction System with the FV3

S. -J. Lin, NOAA, Pricenton, NJ; and L. M. Harris, R. Benson, J. H. Chen, L. Zhou, and X. Chen

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

5B.2

Towards Global-to-Regional Forecasting with a Next-Generation Forecast Model: fvGFS

Lucas M. Harris, NOAA/OAR/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and S. J. Lin, L. Zhou, J. H. Chen, R. Benson, and S. Rees

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

5B.3

The diverse applications of FV3 within the NASA GEOS modeling and assimilation system

William M. Putman, NASA, Greenbelt, MD

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

5B.4

Tropical Cyclone Forecasts in a Next Generation Global Model

Jan-Huey Chen, NOAA/GFDL, UCAR, Princeton, NJ; and S. J. Lin, L. Harris, L. Zhou, S. Rees, and X. Chen

11:30 AM

5B.5

Ten-day Weather Forecasts using a 4-45 km Variable-resolution Global Model: fvGFS

Linjiong Zhou, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and S. J. Lin, J. H. Chen, L. M. Harris, and X. Chen

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

5B.6

Highlights of GMAO Hybrid 4dEnVar System

Ricardo Todling, NASA, Greenbelt, MD; and A. El Akkraoui

Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Tuesday, 24 January 2017

Lunch Break

12:15 PM-1:15 PM: Tuesday, 24 January 2017

Town Hall Meeting: NOAA Modeling Development Forum

Location: 613 (Washington State Convention Center )

Hosts: (Joint between the Town Hall Meetings; and the 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction )

Organizer: Rebecca Adams-Selin, AER

Chairs/Co-chairs: Hendrik Tolman, NOAA; Michael Farrar, NOAA

12:15 PM

Town Hall Presentation

Hendrik Tolman, NOAA, Silver Spring, MD; and M. Ji, M. Farrar, and M. Ek

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Tuesday, 24 January 2017

Session 6A

Forecasting Tools II: New Applications

Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 3 (Washington State Convention Center )

Host: 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Cochairs: Kristopher D. White, NOAA; Alexander O. Tardy, NOAA/NWS

1:30 PM

6A.1

Bringing It All Together: A Prototype for a Probabilistic National Blend of Models

Zoltan Toth, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and M. S. Antolik, R. Krzysztofowicz, G. J. Layne, M. A. Petty, and M. Pena

Recorded Presentation

Handout (7.7 MB)

1:45 PM

6A.2

Performance of the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) and ECMWF High Resolution (HRES) forecast models during NOAA's 2016 El Niño Rapid Response Campaign

George N. Kiladis, ESRL, Boulder, CO; and J. Dias, M. Gehne, and P. Bechtold

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

6A.3

Gridded MOS Improvements over the CONUS and Alaska

Bob Glahn, NOAA/NWS/MDL, Silver Spring, MD; and G. A. Wagner and P. E. Shafer

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.0 MB)

2:15 PM

6A.4

Recent Updates to Analyses and Data Assimilation Systems for High Resolution Nowcasting and Forecasting

Keith A. Brewster, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and K. W. Thomas, D. R. Stratman, and F. H. Carr

Recorded Presentation

Handout (2.7 MB)

Session 6B

Model Evaluation, Validation, and Verification

Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 4 (Washington State Convention Center )

Host: 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Cochairs: Paul J. Roebber, Univ. of Wisconsin; Brian A. Colle, SUNY

1:30 PM

6B.1

Evaluation of New Methods for Verification of Cloud Predictions

Barbara G. Brown, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and K. Newman, T. L. Jensen, E. Gilleland, and J. H. Gotway

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

6B.2

On the Acceleration of Nocturnal Mesoscale Convective Systems in Simulations with Increased Horizontal Grid Spacing

Brian Joseph Squitieri, Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus Jr.

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

6B.3

Understanding the Existence of Quasi-Universal Scaling Characteristics of the Lower Atmospheric Boundary Layer Wind Speeds in the Mesoscale Regime

Velayudhan Praju Kiliyanpilakkil, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, Raleigh, NC; and S. Basu

2:15 PM

6B.4

Validation of a Multi-Model Ensemble For Tropical Cyclone Forecasts Over the Western North Atlantic

Nicholas Leonardo, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and B. A. Colle

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Tuesday, 24 January 2017

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

Location: 4E (Washington State Convention Center )

Poster Session 2

WAF/NWP Posters: Forecasting Tools, Numerical Weather Prediction, and Tropical Cyclones

Location: 4E (Washington State Convention Center )

Host: 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Cochairs: Rebecca Adams-Selin, AER; Alexander O. Tardy, NOAA/NWS

550

An Investigation of the Formation of Hurricane Patricia (2015)

Melinda S Peng, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. D. Doyle and H. Jin

551

Ensemble Variability in Rainfall Forecasts of Hurricane Irene (2011)

Molly B. Smith, SUNY, Albany, NY; and R. D. Torn, K. L. Corbosiero, and P. Pegion

Handout (9.1 MB)

552

Improvements in Nowcasting for High-Impact Severe Weather Events with Continuous Real-Time Thermodynamic Profiles

Kimberly A. Reed, Radiometrics, Boulder, CO; and D. Berchoff, L. Blanchette, J. D. Hardy, M. Nelson, R. Ware, and T. Wilfong

553

High-Resolution Simulation of Super Typhoon Nepartak (2016)

Hao Jin, NRL, Monterey, CA; and Y. Jin and J. D. Doyle

554

Towards the creation of the Global-2-Vortex Scale Hurricane Prediction System

Sundararaman Gopalakrishnan (gopal), NOAA/AOML, Key Biscayne, FL; and F. Marks, V. Tallapragada, X. Zhang, S. J. Lin, R. Atlas, T. Schneider, and F. Toepfer

555

A Global Study of Synoptic-Scale Changes in Tropical Cyclone Structure and the Relationship to Large-Scale Moisture

Stephanie E. Zick, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA

Handout (17.9 MB)

556

Influences of Vertical Mixing in PBL on the Evolution of Landfalling Hurricanes

Zhaoxia Pu, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and F. Zhang

557

Real-time TC Impact information for emergency and operational decision making

Sean S. Miller, Kinetic Analysis Corporation, Silver Spring, MD

Handout (41.6 MB)

558

Impacts of Ocean Initialization and Three-Way Atmosphere-Wave-Ocean Coupling on Hurricane Forecasting

Bin Liu, IMSG and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and J. Meixner, A. Mehra, A. Chawla, I. Ginis, B. Thomas, B. Reichl, T. Hara, H. S. Kim, D. Sheinin, Z. Zhang, and V. Tallapragada

559

Evaluation of Model Hurricane Wind Field Forecasts Against HWIND Analyses

Michael E. Kozar, Risk Management Solutions, Tallahassee, FL; and M. D. Powell

560

Investigation of Tropical Cyclone Forecasts in the Basin-Scale HWRF Ensemble System

Ghassan J. Alaka Jr., NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and X. Zhang, S. Gopalakrishnan, and F. D. Marks Jr.

561

Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave Influence on the Probability of Tropical Cyclogenesis associated with African Easterly Waves

Chris D. Thorncroft, SUNY, Albany, NY; and A. Brammer

562

Incorporate Near Real Time Green Vegetation Fraction Products In The NAM System

Yihua Wu, NOAA, College Park, MD; and M. Ek

Joint Typhoon Warning Center: Tropical Cyclone Forecasting in the Pacific and Indian Oceans

563

Comparison of Modelled and Ground-Based Derived Atmospheric Mixing Layer Height at Iqaluit, Nunavut

Gabrielle Gascon, EC, Edmonton, AB, Canada; and Z. Mariani, A. Dehghan, R. W. Crawford, P. Joe, W. R. Burrows, and S. Melo

564

Exploiting Next Generation Satellite Data for Environmental and Tropical Cyclone Characterization at the Naval Research Laboratory

Rich Bankert, NRL, Monterey, CA; and K. Richardson, J. Cossuth, A. P. Kuciauskas, M. Surratt, and S. Yang

565

Quantitative Evaluation of AutoNowCaster Convective Likelihood

Mamoudou Bocar Ba, NOAA/NWS/STI, Silver Spring, MD; and J. Crockett, L. Xin, and S. B. Smith

Handout (987.7 kB) Handout (96.6 kB)

566

Multi-week Prediction of Significant Wave Heights over the Western Pacific and Indian Ocean

Ravi Shukla, George Mason Univ., Fairfax, VA; and J. L. Kinter III and C. S. Shin

567

Estimation and Correction of the GFS systematic errors

Kriti Bhargava, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and E. Kalnay, J. Carton, and F. Yang

Handout (5.6 MB)

568

Using Satellite-Era Reanalysis Datasets for Synoptic Pattern Recognition of South Texas Heavy Rainfall Events

Michael E. Buchanan, NWS, Corpus Christi, TX

Handout (8.6 MB)

569

An Agrometeorological Application of the Meteogram: “Agrometeogram”

Seung-Jae Lee, National Center for AgroMeteorology, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and Y. J. Kim, J. Song, and J. Kim

570

Adaptation of an Object-Based Verification Method for Moist Convection

John R. Lawson, CIMMS/NSSL, Norman, OK; and W. A. Gallus Jr.

571

Applications of Radar-Derived Shear Products Using an Updated Linear Least-Squares Derivative Technique

Matthew C. Mahalik, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and B. R. Smith and H. Obermeier

Manuscript (3.5 MB)

Handout (5.5 MB)

572

Further improvement in the JMA/GSM SHIPS by using GSMaP

Udai Shimada, MRI, Tsukuba, Japan; and H. Owada, M. Yamaguchi, T. Iriguchi, M. Sawada, K. Aonashi, and M. DeMaria

573

From Short Fuse Warnings to Long Range Forecasts: The Role of the Meteorologist in America's Weather Industry

574

A New Dynamically-Based Metric to Discriminate between Re-intensifying and Decaying Extratropical Transition Cases

Shawn M. Milrad, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical Univ., Daytona Beach, FL; and A. Raghavendra

Handout (3.9 MB)

575

Is There Value in Very High Resolution Weather Forecasts? Experiences from The Jefferson Project at Lake George

Campbell Watson, The Weather Company, IBM, Yorktown Heights, NY; and J. Cipriani, M. Tewari, A. Praino, L. Treinish, and M. Henderson

Handout (1.4 MB)

576

Impact of Horizontal Resolution on Next-Day CAM-Derived Probabilistic Severe Weather Forecasts

Eric D. Loken, CIMMS/University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and A. Clark, M. Xue, and F. Kong

577

A Probabilistic Approach to Severe Weather Forecast Hazards for the El Paso Area

577A

The Signal of Future Tropical Cyclone Intensification in the CloudSat Measurements

Shun-Nan Wu, Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and B. J. Soden

Handout (6.5 MB)

578

Utilizing a Remotely-Sensed Snowfall Rate Algorithm to Verify Experimental Snowfall Rate Forecasts in the WPC Hydrometeorology Testbed

Sarah Perfater, IMSG, College Park, MD; and M. J. Folmer, B. Albright, and H. Meng

579

Investigation of Atmospheric Rivers Impacting the Pigeon River Basin of the Southern Appalachian Mountains

Jessica Winton, NWS, Morristown, TN; and D. G. Hotz, D. Miller, L. Stewart, A. P. Barros, J. Forsythe, and A. P. Biazar

580

Verification of Automated Hail Forecasts from the 2016 Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Experiment

Joseph M Nardi, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. J. Gagne II, A. McGovern, and N. Snook

581

Improving Real-time Forecast Accuracy of Convective Morphology Through Use of an Ensemble

Bradley R. Carlberg, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus Jr. and K. J. Franz

582

Mesoscale Model Evaluation Testbed (MMET): Helping Connect the Research and Operational Communities

Michelle Harrold, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. K. Wolff and T. Hertneky

583

Correspondence of Storm Attributes in NWP and Observations: a Look at Rotation Strength and Environmental Characteristics

Burkely T. Gallo, CIMMS/NSSL, Norman, OK; and A. J. Clark, B. T. Smith, R. L. Thompson, I. L. Jirak, and S. R. Dembek

584

The Impact of Microphysics Schemes in Convection-Allowing Models on the Prediction of Banded Snowfall

584A

A Multiscale Analysis of Major Transition Season Northeast Snowstorms

Rebecca B. Steeves, SUNY, Albany, NY; and A. L. Lang and D. Keyser

585

Snow Level Forecasts Improved for Operations in Canada

586

Recent Advancements in Verification within the Developmental Testbed Center

Tara L. Jensen, NCAR/RAL, Boulder, CO; and J. H. Gotway, R. Bullock, T. L. Fowler, B. Brown, B. Strong, L. Nance, and Y. H. Kuo

587

Precipitation Skill from a Convection Allowing Pseudo-Ensemble

588

The Environmental Modeling Center's Model Evaluation Group

Glenn H. White, EMC, College Park, MD; and G. Manikin, C. Guastini, and T. A. Dorian

589

Tropical Cyclone Outflow and Warm Core Structure as Revealed by HS3 and TCI Dropsondes

William A. Komaromi, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. D. Doyle

590

The Introduction and Application of Severe Weather Monitoring Analysis Nowcasting Forecasting Warning Platform

Yongjun Zhu Sr., Ttianshui Meteorological Bureau, Tianshui, Gansu, China

591

Performance of The Weather Network's Unified Precipitation Nowcasting Using a Blend of Radar Extrapolation and HRRR Sub-Hourly

Majid Fekri, Pelmorex Media Inc, Oakville, ON, Canada; and I. Russell

592

Weather and Climate Analysis Applications of a Satellite Visible and Infrared Imager-Based Overshooting Cloud Top Detection Product

Kristopher M. Bedka, LRC, Hampton, VA; and K. V. Khlopenkov, C. Wang, B. Scarino, M. L. Nordeen, C. R. Yost, and P. Minnis

593

The Sensitivity of Orographic Precipitation to Flow Direction: An Idealized Modeling Approach

594

Precipitation Properties in a Multi-Year Database of Convection-Allowing WRF Simulations

David Goines, University of North Dakota, Grand Forks, ND; and A. Kennedy

595

Using the Global Modeling TestBed Single Column Model to Test a Newly Developed Convective Parameterization

Grant J. Firl, NCAR and Developmental Testbed Center, Boulder, CO

Handout (3.6 MB)

596

The Recurrence of Heavy Rainfalls in December 2015 and March 2016: Long Range Forecasting Implications

Joseph Renken, KOPN Radio Columbia, MO, Columbia, MO; and J. Herman, T. Bradshaw, and A. R. Lupo

597

Evaluating the Severe Fire Weather Potential Index for Determining Initial Attack Success in Washington

598

A Generalized Formulation of Convective Adjusment Timescale for Cumulus Parameterization Schemes

Jian He, EPA, Research Triangle Park, NC; and K. Alapaty and J. A. Herwehe

599

Improving the GFS Boundary Layer Parameterization for Global Tropical Cyclone Predictions

Kun Gao, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and J. H. Chen, S. J. Lin, and L. M. Harris

600

Land Surface Upgrades in the Next NCEP NEMS Implementation

Helin Wei, NOAA/NCEP/EMC/IMSG, College Park, MD; and W. Zheng, J. Meng, and M. B. Ek

601

A New Formulation of Microphysical Variability in Cumulus Convective Clouds

Yefim Kogan, NorthWest Research Associates, Redmond, WA

602

Evaluation of the Grell-Freitas Convective Scheme within the NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS)-based Global Spectral Model (GSM)

Michelle Harrold, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. K. Henderson, J. K. Wolff, C. Holt, L. R. Bernardet, H. Jiang, and L. B. Nance

603

Implementation and Analyzing the Grell-Freitas Convective Parameterization in The NOAA Environmental Modeling System-Based Global Spectral Model

604

Development of a Physically Based Autoconversion Parameterization and Its Application to Cloud Modeling

Hyunho Lee, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and J. J. Baik

Handout (683.0 kB)

605

Comprehensive results of NEMS from different Cloud Microphysics, Cloud fraction, and the related Radiation physics

Hsin-mu lin, IMSG, NCEP, College Park, MD; and B. S. Ferrier, Y. T. Hou, and G. Thompson

Handout (553.7 kB)

606

Wave Reflection Caused by Sponge Layer Configuration

Gian A. Villamil-Otero, North Carolina A & T State University, Greensboro, NC; and Y. L. Lin and R. D. Sharman

607

Quantifying How Positional and Timing Errors in the Prediction of Synoptic Scale Systems Extract a Penalty When Verifying Weather Forecasts

Harvey Stern, Univ. of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia

Manuscript (514.9 kB)

Handout (630.1 kB)

608

Data Assimilation Impact from the Tropospheric Airborne Meteorological Data Reporting (TAMDAR) System on the GFS Forecast

609

Impact Study of Surface Albedo in US Navy Global Weather Prediction System

Ming Liu, NRL, Monterey, CA; and R. Langland, M. S. Peng, and T. F. Hogan

610

The Effects of Numerical Noise on Perturbation Experiments

Brian C. Ancell, Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX

Handout (386.9 kB)

611

An Objective Approach for Correcting Model Bias in the GEOS-5 AGCM

Yehui Chang, NASA, Greenbelt, MD; and R. Koster, H. Wang, and M. Suarez

612

Object-based Verification for the HRRR Model Using Simulated and Observed GOES Infrared Brightness Temperatures

Sarah M. Griffin, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and J. A. Otkin, C. M. Rozoff, J. Sieglaff, L. M. Cronce, C. Alexander, R. Bullock, J. H. Gotway, T. L. Jensen, and J. K. Wolff

613

NWP Cloud Forecasting Enables Free Space Optical Communications

Billy D. Felton, Northrop Grumann Corporation, McLean, VA; and R. J. Alliss

614

Evaluation of Regional Climate Downscaling in the Tropics

Ricardo Morais Fonseca, Luleå University, Kiruna, Sweden; and T. Zhang and T. Y. Koh

Handout (3.4 MB)

615

HRRR-AK: A High-Resolution, Rapidly Cycled Forecast Model for Alaska

Trevor Alcott, GSD, Boulder, CO; and C. Alexander, S. Benjamin, and S. S. Weygandt

616

Is There a Role for Statistical Design of Experiments in Numerical Weather Prediction?

Jeffrey A. Smith, U.S. Army Research Laboratory, White Sands Missile Range, NM; and R. S. Penc and J. W. Raby

617

Stringent Comparison and Evaluation of CMIP5 Model Sea Surface Temperatures

seoyeon Lee, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and K. Y. Kim

Using tendency of semi-Lagrangian advection for Eulerian forcing

618

A Non-Parametric Definition of Summary NWP Forecast Assessment Metrics

Ross N. Hoffman, NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and S. A. Boukabara, V. K. Kumar, K. Garrett, S. Casey, and R. Atlas

Manuscript (513.1 kB)

Handout (680.3 kB)

Convection-Permitting Regional Weather Modeling with COSMO-EULAG: Compressible and Anelastic Solutions for a Typical Westerly Flow over the Alps

619

Application of High Spatial and Temporal Resolution Nowcasting in Korea

Limtak Yu, Pukyong National Univ., Busan, Korea, Republic of (South); and D. I. Lee, Y. Hwang, Y. Kim, and C. H. You

620

Analysis of Grid Imprinting on the Cubed-Sphere

621

Using the NAMRR Cloud Analysis in a Cycled Radar Data Assimilation Forecast of the 26 December 2015 Texas Tornado Event

Jeffrey D. Duda, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and X. Wang and J. R. Carley

Poster 622 has been moved. It is now Paper J6.6A

623

Evaluation of WRF in Simulating Multi-Band Precipitation Structures Within Northeast U.S. Winter Storms

Ryan Connelly, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and B. A. Colle

624

Improving COAMPS Forecasts of Low-level Winds and Significant Wave Heights in the Strait of Hormuz and Arabian Gulf

625

Simulating the Atmospheric Response to a Wildland Fire using a Cloud-Resolving Model

Marshall Stageberg, Michigan State University, Lansing, MI; and A. F. Srock and J. J. Charney

626

Development and applications of the adjoint of the non-hydrostatic GEOS-5 FV3 dynamical core

Daniel Holdaway, NASA, Greenbelt, MD; and J. Kim

627

The Importance of Sea Surface Information in Forecasts of Precipitation from Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers

Andrew Martin, University of California, La Jolla, CA; and R. R. Weihs

628

Assessing MCS Predictability with the NSSL Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System for ensembles

Kent H. Knopfmeier, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and D. M. Wheatley, P. S. Skinner, D. C. Dowell, T. Ladwig, C. R. Alexander, and G. J. Creager

629

Applying The Deep Atmospheric Concept to The NCEP Mesoscale Spectrum Model: First Part - Implementation of a Generalized Coordinate

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 24 January 2017

Joint Session 1

Strategies for Long-term Renewable Energy Resource Development

Location: 606 (Washington State Convention Center )

Hosts: (Joint between the Eighth Conference on Weather, Climate, Water and the New Energy Economy; and the 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction )

Cochairs: Julie K. Lundquist, Univ. of Colorado; Jennifer F. Newman, National Renewable Energy Laboratory

4:00 PM

J1.1

Implementation Targets for the Paris Climate Agreement

Austin Hope, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and B. Bennett, W. Tribett, R. J. Salawitch, and T. Canty

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

J1.2

Determining Atmospheric Conditions That Impact Solar Energy Potential in Nevada

G. Aaron Alexander, University of Nevada, Reno, NV; and H. A. Holmes, W. P. Arnott, J. C. Barnard, and A. Rollings

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

J1.3

The National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB)

Manajit Sengupta, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

J1.4

Impacts of Climate Change on Global Wind Resources in a CMIP5 Ensemble

Kristopher B. Karnauskas, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and J. K. Lundquist and L. Zhang

5:00 PM

J1.5

Seasonal-Scale Variability of Wind Energy and Its Relationship to ENSO and Other Teleconnections

Mark T. Stoelinga, Vaisala, Inc., Seattle, WA; and P. Storck and J. McCaa

Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM

J1.6

Using Large-Scale Circulation Index History to Put Energy Demand and Renewable Supply Forecasts in Context

Daniel Kirk-Davidoff, MDA Information Systems LLC, Gaithersburg, MD; and R. O'Steen, A. Marinaro, and T. Hartman

Recorded Presentation

Session 7A

Testbed, Proving Ground, and Research-to-Operations Activities

Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 3 (Washington State Convention Center )

Host: 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Cochairs: Philip N. Schumacher, NWS; Adam J. Clark, NSSL

4:00 PM

7A.1

Application and Evaluation of the Community Leveraged Unified Ensemble (CLUE) during the 2016 NOAA/HWT Spring Forecasting Experiment

Adam J. Clark, NSSL, Norman, OK; and I. L. Jirak, C. J. Melick, J. Correia Jr., S. J. Weiss, J. S. Kain, L. J. Wicker, A. R. Dean, B. T. Gallo, C. D. Karstens, K. W. Thomas, M. Xue, F. Kong, A. Kennedy, J. Markel, G. S. Romine, K. H. Knopfmeier, C. Alexander, K. R. Fossell, and J. Carley

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

7A.2

A Gridded CrIS/ATMS Visualization for Operational Forecasting

Bradley T. Zavodsky, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and N. Smith, J. F. Dostalek, E. Stevens, K. Nelson, E. Weisz, E. Berndt, W. Line, C. D. Barnet, A. Gambacorta, T. Reale, and D. Hoese

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

7A.3

The 4th Annual Flash Flood and Intense Rainfall Experiment: Evaluating Emerging Atmospheric and Hydrologic Guidance for Probabilistic Flash Flood Forecasting

Benjamin Albright, Systems Research Group, Inc., College Park, MD; and S. Perfater, M. J. Bodner, B. Cosgrove, M. Klein, and D. R. Novak

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

7A.4

Experimental Results and Joint Testbed Collaboration of the West Virginia Flood Event of June 23-24, 2016

Sarah Perfater, IMSG, College Park, MD; and S. M. Martinaitis, B. Albright, J. J. Gourley, M. J. Bodner, B. Cosgrove, M. Klein, Z. L. Flamig, T. C. Meyer, R. Clark III, and D. R. Novak

Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM

7A.5

The SPoRT Land Information System and the Research to Operations Process

Kristopher D. White, NASA, Huntsville, AL; and J. L. Case and B. T. Zavodsky

Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM

7A.6

Application and Evaluation of WRF-HAILCAST hail size forecasts during NOAA/Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiments

Rebecca Adams-Selin, AER, Offutt AFB, NE; and A. J. Clark, C. J. Melick, S. R. Dembek, and C. Ziegler

Recorded Presentation

Session 7B

Model Development and Application

Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 4 (Washington State Convention Center )

Host: 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Cochairs: Gregory J. Hakim, University of Washington; Timothy E. Nobis, Northrop Grumman

4:00 PM

7B.1

Selecting the Next Generation Global Prediction System Atmospheric Dynamical Core for NOAA

Jeffrey S. Whitaker, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and J. Michalakes, M. Ji, F. Toepfer, T. Schneider, V. Tallapragada, and H. Tolman

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

7B.2

Delivering Decision Superiority to the Warfighter

Robert Tournay, US Airforce, Offutt Air Force Base, NE

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

7B.3

Verification of the National Blend of Models

Tabitha L. Huntemann, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and D. W. Plumb Jr. and D. P. Ruth

Recorded Presentation

Handout (3.3 MB)

4:45 PM

7B.4

Developmental Testbed Center: Engaging the Community in Operationally Relevant Research and Development

Louisa B. Nance, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and Y. H. Kuo, L. R. Bernardet, T. A. Dorian, C. Guastini, M. Harrold, I. Jankov, T. L. Jensen, G. Manikin, K. M. Newman, H. Shao, G. H. White, and J. K. Wolff

Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM

7B.5

Coupling the Mesoscale to the Microscale Using Momentum Budget Components

Caroline Draxl, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO; and M. J. Churchfield and J. S. Rodrigo

5:15 PM

7B.6

Design and Implementation of a GSI-based Convection-Permitting Ensemble Data Assimilation and Forecast System for PECAN: Impacts of model physics, resolution, and assimilation of PECAN observations

Aaron Johnson, CIMMS, Norman, OK; and X. Wang

Recorded Presentation

Themed Joint Session 11

Data Assimilation, Research, Theory and Practice

Location: Conference Center: Skagit 5 (Washington State Convention Center )

Hosts: (Joint between the Third Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate; and the 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction )

Cochairs: Alexander O. Tardy, NOAA/NWS; Brian J. Etherton, ESRL/GSD

4:00 PM

TJ11.1

A Weather-Adaptive Hybrid Gain WRF-DART and 3DVAR Analysis and Forecast System with Automatic Storm Positioning and On-demand Capability

Jidong Gao, NSSL/NOAA, Norman, OK; and Y. Wang, D. M. Wheatley, K. H. Knopfmeier, T. A. Jones, G. J. Creager, L. J. Wicker, and J. S. Kain

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

TJ11.2

A Multiscale Ensemble Radar Data Assimilation System for Storm Prediction

Qingyun Zhao, NRL, Monterey, CA; and Q. Xu and F. Zhang

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

TJ11.3

Assimilation of Radar Radial Velocity with a GSI-based Analysis System for Improved Precipitation Forecasts

Donald E. Lippi, NCEP, College Park, MD; and J. R. Carley, D. T. Kleist, S. Liu, D. F. Parrish, W. S. Wu, B. S. Ferrier, G. DiMego, and T. Lei

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

TJ11.4

Advances in Tropical Cyclone Vortex-Scale Data Assimilation using NOAA's Hurricane Ensemble Data Assimilation System (HEDAS) and Hurricane WRF (HWRF) Model

Altug Aksoy, AOML, Miami, FL; and H. Christophersen, B. Dahl, K. J. Sellwood, and S. D. Aberson

Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM

TJ11.5

Advances in Time-Parallel Four-Dimensional Data-Assimilation In a Modular Software Framework

Brian J. Etherton, ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and L. Trailovic, M. W. Govett, and C. W. Harrop

Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM

TJ11.6

Joint Effort for Data Assimilation Integration (JEDI) (Core Science Keynote)

Thomas Auligne, Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation, Boulder, CO

Recorded Presentation

Wednesday, 25 January 2017

Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | top

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 25 January 2017

Joint Session 2

The Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) Part I

Location: 606 (Washington State Convention Center )

Chair: John Zack, AWS Truepower LLC

8:30 AM

J2.1

Overview of the Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain (WFIP2)

Jim McCaa, Vaisala, Seattle, WA; and J. W. Cline, W. J. Shaw, M. Marquis, L. K. Berg, V. R. Kotamarthi, A. Clifton, S. Wharton, J. B. Olson, J. M. Wilczak, B. Kosovic, J. K. Lundquist, H. J. S. Fernando, and B. Ancell

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

J2.2

Lidar Characterization of Boundary-Layer Winds and Validation of NWP Forecast Model Performance during the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project in Complex Terrain of the Columbia River Basin

Yelena Pichugina, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and A. W. Brewer, R. M. Banta, A. Choukulkar, T. A. Bonin, J. B. Olson, J. Kenyon, C. T. Clack, M. Marquis, L. Bianco, J. Sharp, W. M. Angevine, S. Baidar, S. P. Sandberg, A. Weickmann, and B. J. McCarty

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

J2.3

Use of Scanning Doppler Lidars during WFIP-2 to Characterize Flow Phenomena and Evaluate NWP Model Performance

Robert M. Banta, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and A. Brewer, Y. Pichugina, A. Choukulkar, J. B. Olson, J. Kenyon, J. Sharp, M. T. Stoelinga, I. V. Djalalova, L. Bianco, J. Wilczak, L. K. Berg, Q. Yang, T. A. Bonin, S. Benjamin, E. P. Grimit, J. McCaa, S. P. Sandberg, S. Baidar, A. Weickmann, C. W. King, M. Marquis, W. J. Shaw, and J. W. Cline

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

J2.4

Improving Boundary-layer Wind Energy Forecasts by Representing Wind Farms in Mesoscale Models: Validation and Improvements using WFIP2 Observations

Julie K. Lundquist, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and Y. Pichugina, J. M. Tomaszewski, and R. Worsnop

9:30 AM

J2.5

HRRR Model Development for Complex Terrain Applications in Support of the Wind Forecast Improvement Project 2

Joseph B. Olson, NOAA-ESRL/GSD; CIRES, Boulder, CO; and J. Kenyon, J. M. Brown, W. M. Angevine, P. A. Jimenez, B. Kosovic, J. W. Bao, J. McCaa, M. T. Stoelinga, Q. Yang, L. K. Berg, C. Draxl, M. Marquis, and J. W. Cline

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

J2.6

Improvements to HRRR Wind Forecasts from WFIP2

Jaymes Kenyon, NOAA/ESRL and CIRES, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and J. B. Olson, J. Brown, J. M. Wilczak, I. V. Djalalova, R. M. Banta, Y. Pichugina, M. T. Stoelinga, J. Sharp, E. P. Grimit, Q. Yang, L. K. Berg, K. Wade, M. Brewer, and R. Eckman

Recorded Presentation

Session 8A

New Ensemble Techniques, Part I

Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 4 (Washington State Convention Center )

Host: 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Cochairs: Thomas M. Hamill, NOAA; Nusrat Yussouf, CIMMS/OU/NSSL

8:30 AM

8A.1

Expanding Probabilistic Precipitation Services

David R. Novak, NOAA/NWS, College Park, MD

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

8A.2

Twenty-five years of ensemble prediction at ECMWF

Roberto Buizza, ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom; and M. Alonso-Balmaseda, J. Bidlot, M. Bonavita, S. Keeley, S. Lang, M. Leutbecher, S. J. Lock, K. Mogensen, F. Molteni, F. Vitart, and N. Wedi

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

8A.3

Warn-on-Detection to Warn-on-Forecast by 2020?

Pamela L. Heinselman, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and L. J. Wicker and J. S. Kain

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

8A.4

Development and Evaluation of Probabilistic Severe Weather Guidance with the NCAR Convection-Allowing Ensemble

Ryan A. Sobash, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. S. Romine, C. S. Schwartz, and K. R. Fossell

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

8A.5

Advancing Probabilistic Forecasts of Locally Extreme Precipitation through Machine Learning

Gregory R. Herman, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and R. S. Schumacher

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

8A.6

An Object-Based Analog Technique to Reduce Spatial Dimensionality in Forecast Post-Processing

Maria E. Frediani, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT; and T. M. Hopson, J. P. Hacker, E. N. Anagnostou, and L. D. Monache

Recorded Presentation

Session 8B

Ronald W. Przybylinski Memorial Session on Elevated Convection

Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 3 (Washington State Convention Center )

Host: 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Cochairs: Neil I. Fox, Univ. of Missouri; James E. Sieveking Jr., NWS

8:30 AM

8B.1

Remembering the Great Scientist and Mentor Ron Przybylinski

James E. Sieveking Jr., NWS, Saint Charles, MO

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

8B.2

The Program for Research on Elevated Convection with Intense Precipitation (PRECIP): An Overview

Patrick S. Market, Univ. of Missouri, Columbia, MO

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

8B.3

Processes Governing Elevated Convective Systems, as Inferred from Models and Observations

Russ S. Schumacher, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

8B.4

Simulated Nocturnal Convective Systems from the PECANField Experiment

Matthew D. Parker, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and R. S. Schumacher, C. L. Ziegler, M. I. Biggerstaff, M. C. Coniglio, E. R. Mansell, and T. J. Schuur

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

8B.5

Pristine Nocturnal Elevated Convective Initiation: A Preliminary Climatology and Evaluation of Predictability during PECAN

William A. Gallus Jr., Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA; and S. A. Stelten

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

8B.6

Factors Influencing Elevated Convection during the Hurricane Joaquin (2015) Event

Chasity B. Henson, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and P. S. Market

Recorded Presentation

10:00 AM-10:15 AM: Wednesday, 25 January 2017

Session

Weather Analysis and Forecasting Awards Brainstorming Session

Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 4 (Washington State Convention Center )

Host: 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 25 January 2017

Coffee Break

Location: 4AB (Washington State Convention Center )

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 25 January 2017

Joint Session 3

The Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) Part 2

Location: 606 (Washington State Convention Center )

Chair: J. Craig Collier, DNV GL

10:30 AM

J3.1

Turbulence Dissipation Rates in the Planetary Boundary Layer from Wind Profiling Radars and Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction Models during WFIP2

Katherine McCaffrey, CIRES, Boulder, CO; and L. Bianco, J. M. Wilczak, J. B. Olson, and J. Kenyon

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

J3.2

Seasonal Dependence of RAP and HRRR NWP Forecast Errors During the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) Field Campaign

James Wilczak, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and I. V. Djalalova, L. Bianco, J. B. Olson, J. Kenyon, R. Banta, L. K. Berg, J. Bickford, T. A. Bonin, A. Brewer, M. Brewer, S. Bustos-Ortola, A. Choukulkar, C. T. Clack, K. L. Clawson, A. Clifton, J. W. Cline, D. Cook, R. Coulter, R. Eckman, H. J. S. Fernando, K. Friedrich, E. P. Grimit, L. S. Leo, J. K. Lundquist, T. J. Martin, M. Marquis, J. McCaa, K. McCaffrey, P. Muradyan, M. Pekour, Y. Pichugina, W. J. Shaw, M. T. Stoelinga, and S. Wharton

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

J3.3

Measuring the Skill of Numerical Weather Prediction Models at Forecasting Wind Ramp Events during WFIP

Laura Bianco, CIRES, Boulder, CO; and I. V. Djalalova, E. Knopleva-Akish, J. B. Olson, and J. M. Wilczak

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

J3.4

WFIP2 Experiment: Impact of Different Spatial Model Resolutions on Forecasting 80m Wind Speed Ramp Events

Irina V. Djalalova, CIRES, Boulder, CO; and L. Bianco, J. Wilczak, J. B. Olson, J. Kenyon, M. T. Stoelinga, E. P. Grimit, A. Clifton, L. Berg, M. Pekour, W. J. Shaw, K. L. Clawson, R. M. Eckman, M. C. Brewer, H. J. S. Fernando, T. J. Martin, P. Muradyan, R. L. Coulter, and D. Cook

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

J3.5

A Three Dimensional PBL Parameterization to Improve Wind Simulations over Complex Terrrain

Pedro A. Jimenez, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. Kosovic, S. E. Haupt, J. B. Olson, J. W. Bao, E. Grell, and J. Kenyon

Recorded Presentation

J3.6

Observations of Subgrid-Scale Surface Flux Variability in WFIP 2

Session 9A

New Ensemble Techniques, Part II

Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 4 (Washington State Convention Center )

Host: 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Cochairs: Josh Hacker, NCAR; Burkely Gallo, Univ. of Oklahoma/NSSL

10:30 AM

9A.1

The US National Blend of Models Statistical Post-Processing of Probability of Precipitation and Deterministic Precipitation Amount

Thomas M. Hamill, NOAA, Boulder, CO

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

9A.2

Initial Results from the Evaluation of Convective Ensemble Sensitivity at the 2016 HWT Spring Forecast Experiment

Brian C. Ancell, Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX; and B. Burghardt

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

9A.3

Scenario-based Forecast Verification of U.S. East Coast Winter Storms in Multi-Model Ensembles

Minghua Zheng, SIO, La Jolla, CA; and E. K. M. Chang and B. Colle

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

9A.4

Sensitivity of Convection-Allowing Forecasts to Land-Surface Model Perturbations and Implications for Ensemble Design

Jeffrey D. Duda, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and X. Wang and M. Xue

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

9A.5

Novel Atmospheric Ensemble Modeling Techniques Applied to Long-Range Transport

Robert L. Buckley, Savannah River National Laboratory, Aiken, SC; and S. R. Chiswell, R. J. Kurzeja, G. M. Maze, B. J. Viner, and D. W. Werth

11:45 AM

9A.6

The Use of Weather Scenarios from Convective-Allowing Ensembles to Convey Forecast Uncertainty

Soner Yorgun, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and M. S. Wandishin, G. J. Layne, and M. A. Petty

Recorded Presentation

Session 9B

Mesoscale Meteorology and Severe Local Storms, Part I

Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 3 (Washington State Convention Center )

Host: 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Cochairs: Shawn M. Milrad, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical Univ.; Steven J. Weiss, NOAA/NCEP/SPC

10:30 AM

9B.1

Observations of Extreme Short-Term Precipitation Associated with Supercells and Mesovortices

Erik R. Nielsen, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and R. S. Schumacher

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

9B.2

Mesovortex Production in Simulated Interactions Between Quasi-linear Convective Systems and Supercell Thunderstorms

Adam J. French, South Dakota School of Mines and Technology, Rapid City, SD; and J. Wipf

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

9B.3

Predictability and Dynamics of Warm-Core Mesoscale Vortex Formation with the 8 May 2009 “Super Derecho” Event

Caleb Grunzke, University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI; and C. Evans

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

9B.4

The Multi-Scale Dynamical Processes Leading to the 29 June 2012 "Super Derecho"

Kacie N. Shourd, DRI, Reno, NV; and M. L. Kaplan

Recorded Presentation

9B.5

Regional Variations in the Meteorological and Societal Implications of Storms Producing Significant Tornadoes

11:30 AM

9B.5A

A Case of Extreme Rainfall over the Eastern Caribbean in December 2013

Arlene Laing, CIRA and NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and B. Baker, S. Willie, and D. Farrell

9B.6

Climatological, Meteorological, and Societal Impacts of Cold-season Tornadoes

11:45 AM

9B.6A

On the sensitivity of bow-echo ensemble forecasts to grid spacing

John R. Lawson, CIMMS/NSSL, Norman, OK; and W. A. Gallus Jr.

Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 25 January 2017

Lunch Break

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Wednesday, 25 January 2017

Lecture 2

Horton Lecture

Location: 602 (Washington State Convention Center )

Hosts: (Joint between the 20th Conference of Atmospheric Science Librarians International; the Second Symposium on Multi-scale Atmospheric Predictability; the Observation Symposium: Progress, Problems, and Prospects; the 33rd Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 29th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; the 26th Symposium on Education; the 21st Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface; the 19th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 18th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the 15th Conference on Artificial and Computational Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences; the 15th Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 14th Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography; the 14th Conference on Space Weather; the 13th Annual Symposium on New Generation Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the Major Weather Impacts of 2016; the 13th Symposium of the Urban Environment; the 12th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the Ninth Symposium on Aerosol–Cloud–Climate Interactions; the Eighth Conference on Weather, Climate, Water and the New Energy Economy; the Eighth Conference on Environment and Health; the Eighth Symposium on Lidar Atmospheric Applications; the Eighth Conference on the Meteorological Application of Lightning Data; the Seventh Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the 31st Conference on Hydrology; the Fifth Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; the Fifth Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation: Enhancing Our Nation’s Readiness, Responsiveness, and Resilience to High Impact Weather Events; the Fifth AMS Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the Fifth Symposium on Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Processes, Prediction and Impact; the Third Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate; the Special Symposium on Greening the Built Environment; and the Events )

Organizer: John B. Eylander, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

Lecturer: Hoshin V. Gupta, Univ. of Arizona

Cochairs: Michael Ek, NOAA; David J. Gochis, NCAR; John N. McHenry, Baron Advanced Meteorological Systems, LLC

1:30 PM

L2.1

Learning with Models & Data: A Maximum Entropy Approach (Invited Presentation)

Hoshin V. Gupta, Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (57.5 kB)

Handout (13.3 MB)

Joint Session 4

Forecasting for Wind Energy: General Topics

Location: 606 (Washington State Convention Center )

Chair: Caroline Draxl, National Renewable Energy Laboratory

1:30 PM

J4.1

Simulating Impacts of Real-World Wind Farms on Land Surface Temperature Using WRF Model. Part I: Validation with MODIS Observations

Geng Xia, SUNY, Albany, NY; and M. Cervarich, B. R. Roy, L. Zhou, J. R. Minder, P. Jimenez, and J. Freedman

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

J4.2

Improvements in Wind Power Forecasts through use of the WRF Wind Farm Parameterization evaluated with Meteorological and Turbine Power Data

Joseph C. Y. Lee, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and J. K. Lundquist

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

J4.3

Simulating Wind Turbine Wakes from Multiple Interacting Wind Farms in the Western US Using the WRF Wind Farm Parameterization

Clara St. Martin, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and J. K. Lundquist

2:15 PM

J4.4

A Hybrid Model for Wind-Energy Forecasting

Seyed Hossein Hezaveh, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and M. Momen and E. Bou-Zeid

Recorded Presentation

Session 10A

MPAS

Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 4 (Washington State Convention Center )

Host: 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Cochairs: James Doyle, NRL; Dale R. Durran, University of Washington

1:30 PM

10A.1

Data Assimilation for MPAS

Chris Snyder, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and S. Ha, H. C. Lin, Z. Liu, C. Schwartz, J. Whitaker, and H. Winterbottom

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

10A.2

Looking beyond Day 2 Forecasts of Severe Convective Weather in the Central US: A Comparison Between the Unified Model Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) and Nested WRF-ARW Approaches for Convection Permitting Models

Kelton T. Halbert, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and W. C. Skamarock, S. Cavallo, M. Wong, L. J. Wicker, and A. J. Clark

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

10A.3

Idealized Tropical Cyclone Test Cases for Global Models

William C. Skamarock, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and S. H. Park, G. H. Bryan, C. A. Davis, and J. Klemp

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

10A.4

Arctic Extended-Range Predictions with MPAS and MPAS-CESM

Nicholas Szapiro, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and S. Cavallo, W. Skamarock, and S. H. Park

Recorded Presentation

Session 10B

Mesoscale Meteorology and Severe Local Storms, Part II

Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 3 (Washington State Convention Center )

Host: 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Cochairs: Gary M. Lackmann, North Carolina State University; James R. McCormick, Software Engineering Services

1:30 PM

10B.1

A Systematic Methodology for Assessing the Ability of Atmospheric Bores and Solitons to Initiate Elevated Deep Convection

Steven E. Koch, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

10B.2

An Examination of the Dynamics of a Rear-Inflow Jet Associated with an Idealized Mesoscale Convective System

Caitlin C. Crossett, University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI; and C. Evans

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

10B.3

Observational and Numerical Modeling Analysis of Nocturnal Convection over Tropical Lakes

Brian Freitag, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and U. S. Nair, S. J. Goodman, and R. I. Albrecht

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

10B.4

The Role of Polar/Subtropical Jet Interaction in the South-Central US Flood of March 2016

Connor Dacey, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and J. E. Martin

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Wednesday, 25 January 2017

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

Location: 4E (Washington State Convention Center )

Poster Session 3

WAF/NWP Posters: Numerical Weather Prediction

Location: 4E (Washington State Convention Center )

Host: 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Cochairs: Rebecca Adams-Selin, AER; Alexander O. Tardy, NOAA/NWS

1161

Assimilation of Null-echo from Radar Observations for Short-term Precipitation Forecasting

Ki-Hong Min, Kyungpook National Univ., Daegu, Korea, Republic of (South); and Y. Kim, K. Park, and G. Lee

1162

Improved GSI Forward Model for Surface Observations on Coastlines

Ming Hu, CIRES, boulder, CO; and M. Liu, S. Weygandt, S. G. Benjamin, and C. Alexander

1163

An ice-phase forward model for radar data assimilation with WRFVAR and preliminary result for polarimetric radar data assimilation

Xuanli Li, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and J. R. Mecikalski

1164

Assimilation of GPM GMI rainrate product with community GSI and case study result

Xuanli Li, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and J. Srikishen, B. T. Zavodsky, and J. R. Mecikalski

1165

The Influence of a Digit Filer Initialization on HWRF Hurricane Forecasting

Shixuan Zhang, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and Z. Pu

Poster 1166 will now be presented as J7.1A

1167

The Potential of Smartphone Pressure Observations Evaluated in a Convective Case Study

Luke E. Madaus, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. F. Mass

1168

Assessment of Ensemble Forecast Sensitivity to Observation (EFSO) Quantities for Satellite Radiances Assimilated in the 4DEnVar GFS

David Groff, IMSG/NOAA/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and K. Ide, R. Mahajan, and Y. Zhu

Handout (2.5 MB)

1169

A Soft-computing Ensemble Approach (SEA) to forecast Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall

M. M. Ali, Skymet Weather Services, Noida, India; and N. Kurian, T. Venugopal, and J. Singh

Manuscript (181.7 kB)

1170

Developing a Quantitative Measure of Convective Forcing to Evaluate High Resolution Rapid Refresh Ensemble (HRRRE) Variance

Amber J. Liggett, Millersville Univ., Beaver, PA; and T. T. Ladwig, D. C. Dowell, and C. R. Alexander

1171

High-Resolution Hurricane Reanalysis and Reforecasts Using State-of-the-art Operational HWRF Model

Zaizhong Ma, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and A. Mehra and V. Tallapragada

1172

Measuring the Quality of Updating High Resolution Time-Lagged Ensemble Probability Forecasts Using Spatial Verification Techniques

Tressa L. Fowler, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and T. Jensen, R. Bullock, and J. E. Halley Gotway

Manuscript (702.9 kB)

1173

Exploring Forecast Sensitivity through an Ensemble of Varying Land Surface Parameterizations, Soil Moisture, and Vegetation Characteristics

Andrew L. Molthan, NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, AL; and J. L. Case, J. Srikishen, and B. T. Zavodsky

1174

Assimilating Real-Time High-Resolution BUFR Radiosonde Rata in NAVGEM: Current Results and Future Prospects

Patricia M. Pauley, NRL, Monterey, CA; and D. Tyndall, J. M. Reeves, and R. Pauley

Handout (1.5 MB)

1175

Insights into Predicting Tornado Development Using NEWS-e Vorticity Forecasts

Jessica M. McDonald, NOAA/SPC/Hollings, Norman, OK; and J. Correia Jr.

1176

Overview of the NCAR High-Resolution (3-km) Ensemble and Validation of Its Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts Over Complex Terrain in the Western US

Thomas Michael Gowan, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and W. J. Steenburgh

Handout (5.2 MB)

1177

Validation and Intercomparison of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts from the NCAR High-Resolution (3-km) Ensemble and NCEP and ESRL Operational Models Over the Western US

Thomas Michael Gowan, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and W. J. Steenburgh

Handout (6.1 MB)

1178

Ensemble Forecasts and Verification of the May 2015 Multi-Hazard Severe Weather Event in Oklahoma

Austin A Coleman, NWC REU Program, Norman, OK; and N. Yussouf

1179

Statistical Method for Estimating Wind Arrival Times from Tropical Cyclones

Jeri Lynn Schwietert, CyberData Technologies, Inc., Herndon, VA; and M. DeMaria, M. Onderlinde, C. Mattocks, R. Berg, and A. Schumacher

1180

NAEFS Next Generation Product Upgrade and Plan

Bo Cui, IMSG at EMC/NCEP, College Park, MD; and Y. Zhu, H. Guan, and Y. Luo

1181

Numerical Simulations of the Florida Sea Breeze and Its Associated Convection with the WRF Model

Nessa E Hock, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and Z. Pu

Handout (8.3 MB)

1182

Medium-Range Ensemble Forecast Tools at the Weather Prediction Center

William S. Lamberson, IMSG, College Park, MD

1183

A Probabilistic Tropical Cyclone Track Uncertainty “Cone” Using Multi-Model Ensembles

Derek Ortt, StormGeo, Inc, Houston, TX; and C. Hebert, B. Weinzapfel, and D. Eyre

1184

Comparison of Forecast Ensemble Spread to a Weather Feature Based Confidence Index

William Capehart, South Dakota School of Mines and Technology, Rapid City, SD; and M. Kern and A. Penning

Handout (4.5 MB)

1185

Using a Frequently Updated, Storm-Scale Ensemble Prediction System for Short-Term Prediction of Heavy Rainfall

Nusrat Yussouf, CIMMS/OU/NSSL, Norman, OK; and J. S. Kain and A. J. Clark

1186

Evaluations of WRF New Features with an Operational Army Ensemble Prediction System

Linlin Pan, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and Y. Liu, G. Roux, Y. Wu, J. Knievel, L. Delle Monache, J. Pace, and S. Halvorson

1187

Evaluation of Real-Time Machine Learning Hail Forecasts from the NCAR Convection-Allowing Ensemble

David John Gagne II, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and A. McGovern, R. A. Sobash, S. E. Haupt, and J. K. Williams

Handout (2.7 MB)

1188

NCEP GEFS V11 Reforecast and its Application

hong guan, SRG Inc. at NOAA/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and Y. Zhu

1189

Advances in Detection of Overshooting Cloud Tops Within Satellite Imagery Based on Pattern Recognition Algorithms

Konstantin V. Khlopenkov, SSAI, Hampton, VA; and K. M. Bedka

1190

Deriving Precipitation Type Probabilities in the National Blend of Models

Dan A. Baumgardt, NWS, La Crosse, WI; and A. Just and P. E. Shafer

Handout (2.8 MB)

1191

Evaluation of Several Spatial Filtering Methods for Probabilistic CPM Ensemble Forecasts

Benjamin T. Blake, IMSG and NOAA/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and J. R. Carley, T. Alcott, I. Jankov, M. Pyle, and A. J. Clark

1192

Real-Time WRF Multi-Physics Ensemble-RTFDDA System with Downscaling of Multiple Global Model Forecasts for SGCC Electric Power Applications

William Y. Y. Cheng, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and Y. Liu, G. Roux, Y. Liu, S. Feng, S. Jin, J. Hu, and C. Liu

1193

The Assimilation of FY3C GNOS Radio Occultation Observations within GRAPES 3D-Var: Assimilated Experiments and Forecast Impact

Jincheng Wang, CMA, Beijing, China

1194

Improvement of Wind Speed Prediction Using Statistical and Analog Techniques for NE U.S

Jaemo Yang, Univ. of Connecticut, Storrs, CT; and M. Astitha, L. D. Monache, and S. Alessandrini

1195

Quantile Regression and Logistic Regression Combined for Calibration of a Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction System (EPS)

1196

Improving 2-m Temperature Spread in the Next NCEP Global Ensemble

Walter Kolczynski Jr., NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC via IMSG, College Park, MD; and M. Gehne, G. Bates, J. Meng, T. M. Hamill, Y. Zhu, and D. Hou

1197

Ensemble Forecasts and Regional EnKF Data Assimilation for Prediction of Lake-Effect Snow

Seth Saslo, Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA; and S. J. Greybush

1198

Development of a Three-Dimensional Spectral Element Model for NWP: Idealized Simulations on the Sphere

1199

Coupling NWP Physics to a Three-Dimensional Spectral Element MODEL

Alex Reinecke, NRL, Monterey, CA; and K. Viner, D. Durran, S. Gabersek, M. Martini, J. Doyle, D. D. Flagg, D. R. Ryglicki, and F. X. Giraldo

1200

Testing of the New WRF-ARW Hybrid Vertical Coordinate in RAP and HRRR

J. M. Brown, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and J. B. Olson, T. G. Smirnova, T. Alcott, S. G. Benjamin, D. Gill, and J. B. Klemp

1201

Use of Stochastic Physics Approaches Within Rapid Refresh and High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Ensembles

1202

RAP/HRRR Model Physics Development

Joseph B. Olson, NOAA-ESRL/GSD; CIRES, Boulder, CO; and J. Kenyon, J. M. Brown, C. Alexander, T. Smirnova, G. Grell, I. Jankov, S. Benjamin, G. Thompson, W. M. Angevine, and S. Weygandt

1203

Upgrades of GRAPES_TYM in 2016 and Its Performance

Suhong Ma, NWPD/NMC, Beijing, China

1204

The Nested Domains of Version 4 of the NAM Forecast System

Jacob R. Carley, IMSG and NOAA/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and E. Rogers, B. S. Ferrier, E. Aligo, Z. Janjic, S. Liu, Y. Lin, D. F. Parrish, M. Pyle, W. S. Wu, Y. Wu, and G. J. DiMego

Handout (2.3 MB)

1205

NMMB Model Changes as Part of the NAMv4 Upgrade

Brad S. Ferrier, IMSG/NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and Z. Janjic, E. Aligo, D. Jovic, E. Rogers, J. R. Carley, M. Pyle, and G. J. DiMego

Handout (915.6 kB)

1206

Introduction to Next NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS)

Yuejian Zhu, NCEP, College Park, MD

1207

Development and Evaluation of NEMS GFS for 2017 Implementation

Fanglin Yang, NOAA, College Park, MD; and V. Tallapragada

1208

Addressing Uncertainties in Cloud Top Height Verification with Synthetic Brightness Temperatures

Jason E. Nachamkin, NRL, Monterey, CA; and Y. Jin, L. D. Grasso, and K. Richardson

Sensitivity of Physical Parameterization Schemes to Stochastic Initial Conditions in WRF Tornado Outbreak Simulations

1209

Evaluating NOAA Climate Forecasting System Subseasonal Forecasts

Nicholas Weber, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. F. Mass

Handout (1.3 MB)

1210

Using Landmarks to Verify Complex Meteorological Phenomena

Jason E. Nachamkin, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Grasso and Y. Jin

1211

Development of Statistical Post-Processing Techniques for Improved Low-Level Wind Speed Forecasts in West Texas

Meghan J. Mitchell, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. Ancell, J. A. Lee, S. Haupt, and L. Delle Monache

1212

Contributions of Moist Convection and Internal Gravity Waves to Building the Atmospheric ÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šâ‚€Ã…â€œ-5/3ÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šâ‚€Ã‚Â Kinetic Energy Spectra

Y. Qiang Sun, Pennsylvania State University, State College, PA; and R. Rotunno and F. Zhang

Poster 1213 will now be presented as 15B.4A

1214

Temperature and Precipitation Forecasts in Complex Terrain Using Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization Ensembles

Timothy C. Y. Chui, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and D. M. Siuta and R. B. Stull

1215

Numerical Analysis of Fog Predictability over National Center for Intensive Observation of Severe Weather (NCIO)

WonHeung Kim, Yonsei Univ., Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and S. S. Yum and C. K. Kim

1216

Evolution of HRRR Warm Season Convective Precipitation Forecasts Over Three Years of Model Development

Janice L. Bytheway, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and C. D. Kummerow

1217

Sensitivity of a TPV to a Downstream Forecast Bust

Christopher P. Riedel, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and S. Cavallo

1218

Using Regression Mixture Model Clustering to Partition Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasts from Ensemble Prediction Systems

Jenni L. Evans, Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA; and A. Kowaleski

1219

Evaluating Global, High Resolution, and Ensemble Models with the HiRA Framework

Nicholas Chisler, Unite States Air Force

1220

Evaluation of Real-Time WRF Forecasts Over the Mid-Atlantic

Troy J. Arcomano, Univ. of Maryland, Oakhurst, NJ; and C. R. Martin, D. T. Kleist, G. M. Mazzuca, and T. C. Sluka

1221

An Impact Study of NCEP GEFS TC Track Forecast

Yuejian Zhu, NCEP, College Park, MD; and X. Zhou, B. Fu, and J. Peng

1222

Are the Discrimination Ability and Maximum Economic Value of a Forecast System Affected by Forecast Biases?

Hui-Ling Chang, Central Weather Bureau, Taipei, Taiwan; and S. C. Yang

Handout (715.2 kB)

1223

Impact of initial SST fields on Hurricane Edouard (2014) forecasts with the HWRF model

Jili Dong, IMSG at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and L. Zhu, H. S. Kim, P. J. Fitzpatrick, and A. Mehra

1224

Downscaling Temperature Forecasts along the Coast

Ivar A Seierstad, MET, OSLO, Norway; and T. Nipen

Handout (2.2 MB)

1225

Atmospheric Composition Studies with the GEOS Models

Steven Pawson, GMAO, Greenbelt, MD; and J. E. Nielsen, A. S. Darmenov, C. A. Keller, A. Molod, L. Ott, W. M. Putman, A. Da Silva, K. Wargan, and B. Weir

1226

Evaluation of Global Numerical Weather Prediction Model Extended-Range Forecasts

Song Yang, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. Reynolds, J. Ridout, and M. Flatau

1227

Examining Sources of Variability in Model Skill during the 7 January 2013 Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event

Jonathan L. Blufer, SUNY, Albany, NY; and A. L. Lang and L. F. Bosart

1228

NOAA MAPP Program Research and Transition Initiatives to Advance Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction

Heather M. Archambault, NOAA, Princeton, NJ; and D. Barrie and A. Mariotti

1229

Verification and validation of a Navy ESPC hindcast with loosely coupled data assimilation

E. Joseph Metzger, NRL, Stennis Space Center, MS; and N. P. Barton, O. M. Smedstad, B. Ruston, A. Wallcraft, T. R. Whitcomb, J. Ridout, D. S. Franklin, L. Zamudio, P. Posey, C. Reynolds, and M. W. Phelps

1230

Understanding Subseasonal Extremes: The Missouri Floods of December 2015

Shih-Yu (Simon) Wang, Utah State Univ., Logan, UT; and B. O. Fosu

1231

Subseasonal Forecasting Skill with Advanced Coupled Models including the 30km FIM-HYCOM Model

Stan Benjamin, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and S. Sun, B. Green, R. Bleck, G. A. Grell, and H. Li

1232

NOAA's Next Generation Global Prediction System and the National Earth System Prediction Capability

Fred Toepfer, NOAA, Silver Spring, MD; and T. Schneider, V. Tallapragada, J. C. Carman, and D. McCarren

U.S. Air Force Weather Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction: Pushing the limits of predictability to optimize National Defense

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 25 January 2017

Session 11A

The National Earth System Prediction Capability Agenda for Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction (S2S)

Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 4 (Washington State Convention Center )

Host: 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Cochairs: Jessie C. Carman, OAR; David McCarren, Navy/CNMOC

4:00 PM

11A.1

NOAA Unified Global Coupled Modeling

Hendrik Tolman, NOAA, Silver Spring, MD; and F. Toepfer, T. Schneider, J. C. Carman, and V. Tallapragada

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

11A.2

NOAA/OAR Contributions to Subseasonal to Seasonal Research That Will Benefit National Capabilities

John Cortinas Jr., OAR, Silver Spring, MD

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

11A.3

Navy global coupled numerical system development and field research contributing to the U.S. National Earth System Prediction Capability (ESPC) Partnership

Daniel P. Eleuterio, ONR, Arlington, VA; and C. A. Reynolds, N. P. Barton, T. R. Whitcomb, G. Jacobs, J. G. Richman, and J. Metzger

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

11A.4

New Metrics for the Ocean Performance of ESPC Extended Range Reforecasts

James G. Richman, Florida State Univ., Corvallis, OR; and P. Hogan, J. F. Shriver, and L. Zamudio

Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM

11A.5

How the Earth System Prediction Suite Contributes to a Coordinated U.S. S2S Research and Prediction Capability

Cecelia Deluca, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO

Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM

Discussion

5:30 PM

National ESPC - Dave McCarren

Session 11B

Weather Phenomena from Mesoscale to Synoptic Scale

Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 3 (Washington State Convention Center )

Host: 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Cochairs: Jeff S. Waldstreicher, NOAA/NWS; Kristopher White, National Weather Service

4:00 PM

11B.1

Detection of Mesoscale Pressure Perturbations with Five Minute Gridded Analyses

Alexander A. Jacques, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and J. D. Horel and E. T. Crosman

Recorded Presentation

Handout (3.3 MB)

4:15 PM

11B.2

Extratropical Hurricane Force Low Centers in the North Pacific Ocean

James M Kells, NWS, College Park, MD

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

11B.3

How do Secondary Frontal Waves Associated with Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers Lead to Forecast Challenges and can Precursor Synoptic Conditions Lead to Early Detection?

Andrew Martin, University of California, La Jolla, CA

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

11B.4

The Influence of Atmospheric Rivers and Associated Latent Heat Release on Downstream Waviness

Jessica R. Taheri, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and J. E. Martin

Recorded Presentation

Handout (2.7 MB)

5:00 PM

11B.5

An Investigation into the Impacts of Sea-Surface Temperature Anomalies on Oceanic Cyclogenesis in the winters of 2014 and 2015

Eyad Atallah, McGill University, Westmount, QC, Canada; and D. J. Gyakum and M. Gervais

Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM

11B.6

Weather Regime-Dependent Predictability: Antecedent Environments Conducive to the Production of High-Impact Weather Events over the United States

Andrew C. Winters, SUNY, Albany, NY; and D. Keyser and L. F. Bosart

Recorded Presentation

Handout (31.9 MB)

5:30 PM-6:30 PM: Wednesday, 25 January 2017

Awards Banquet Reception

Location: 4AB (Washington State Convention Center )

5:30 PM

Awards Banquet Reception

Recorded Presentation

7:00 PM-10:00 PM: Wednesday, 25 January 2017

97th AMS Awards Banquet

Location: Ballroom 6ABCE (Washington State Convention Center )

7:00 PM

97th AMS Awards Banquet

Recorded Presentation

Thursday, 26 January 2017

Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | top

8:30 AM-9:30 AM: Thursday, 26 January 2017

Joint Session 5

Weather and Climate Modeling in the Polar Regions, Including Sea Ice Prediction Part I

Location: Conference Center: Skagit 3 (Washington State Convention Center )

Hosts: (Joint between the 14th Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography; and the 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction )

Chair: David Schneider, NCAR

8:30 AM

J5.1

The Role of External Forcing on the Amundsen Sea Low Intensification

Ryan L. Fogt, Ohio Univ., Athens, OH

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

J5.2

Modelling Large Ocean to Atmosphere Heat Flux events in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica

Richard Wilson Jones, Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Science (University of East Anglia), Norwich, United Kingdom; and I. Renfrew and A. Orr

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

J5.3

A Dynamical Explanation of the Topographically Bound Easterly Low-Level Jet Surrounding Antarctica

Scott R. Fulton, Clarkson University, Potsdam, NY; and W. H. Schubert, Z. Chen, and P. E. Ciesielski

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

J5.4

Evaluation of a Cycling Mesocale Ensemble Prediction System over the Antarctic Region

Christopher P. Riedel, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and S. Cavallo

Recorded Presentation

Session 12A

Tropical Cyclone Modeling and Prediction

Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 4 (Washington State Convention Center )

Host: 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Cochairs: Sharan Majumdar, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS; Michael J. Brennan, NHC

8:30 AM

12A.1

Comparison of TC Track Forecast Based on 3D EnVar and 4D EnVar Data Assimilation

Bing Fu, IMSG at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and Y. Zhu, J. Peng, X. Zhou, and C. Melhauser

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

12A.2

An Evaluation of Physics Enhancements within Hurricane WRF

Kathryn M. Newman, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. K. Biswas, L. Bernardet, G. Thompson, and J. Frimel

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

12A.3

HNMMB: Development of a new Hurricane model for NWS/NCEP operations

Avichal Mehra, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and V. Tallapragada, W. Wang, L. Zhu, Z. Zhang, K. Wu, T. Black, R. Vasic, H. S. Kim, and D. Sheinin

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

12A.4

Probabilistic Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification with an Analog Ensemble

Stefano Alessandrini, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and L. Delle Monache, C. M. Rozoff, and W. E. Lewis

Recorded Presentation

Session 12B

Results from Recent Field Campaigns I: PECAN

Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 3 (Washington State Convention Center )

Host: 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Cochairs: William A. Gallus Jr., Iowa State Univ.; Rebecca Adams-Selin, AER

8:30 AM

12B.1

Evolution of Thermodynamic Vertical Profiles from Pre- and Post-Convective Environments of Mesoscale Convective Systems Observed During PECAN

Stacey M. Hitchcock, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and R. S. Schumacher, C. L. Ziegler, M. C. Coniglio, and M. D. Parker

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

12B.2

Kinematics, Thermodynamics, and Microphysics of the 25-26 June 2015 Kansas MCS during PECAN

Rachel L. Miller, CIMMS, Norman, OK; and C. L. Ziegler and M. I. Biggerstaff

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

12B.3

The Great Plains Low-Level Jet During PECAN: Initial Comparisons of Profiling Observations with WRF Model Predictions

Elizabeth N. Smith, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and P. M. Klein, E. Fedorovich, and J. A. Gibbs

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

12B.4

The Impact of Low-Level Moisture Errors on Model Forecasts of an MCS Observed during PECAN

John M. Peters, NPS, Pacific Grove, CA; and E. R. Nielsen, M. D. Parker, S. M. Hitchcock, R. S. Schumacher, M. C. Coniglio, and C. L. Ziegler

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM-10:30 AM: Thursday, 26 January 2017

Exhibit Hall Breakfast

Location: 4AB (Washington State Convention Center )

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 26 January 2017

Joint Session 6

New and Unique Observational Datasets

Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 4 (Washington State Convention Center )

Hosts: (Joint between the 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 21st Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface )

Cochairs: Kathryn Newman, NCAR; Adam L. Houston, Univ. of Nebraska

10:30 AM

J6.1

Supplemental Automated Quality Control of MRMS Reflectivity Products for LAMP Convection and Lightning Forecast Guidance Applications

Jerome P. Charba, Meteorological Development Laboratory, Silver Spring, MD; and F. G. Samplatsky and A. J. Kochenash

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.8 MB)

10:45 AM

J6.2

Constraining Short-Term Storm-Scale Forecasts of Convective Initiation in OSSEs with Dense Surface Observations

Luke E. Madaus, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and G. J. Hakim

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

J6.3

Surface Pressure Observations from Smartphones: Current Status and Future Promise

Conor McNicholas, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. F. Mass

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

J6.4

Severe Weather Simulation Experiment (QuickOSSE) Using Super Constellations of GNSS Radio Occultation Satellites

S. Mark Leidner, AER, Norman, OK; and T. Nehrkorn, J. M. Henderson, M. Mountain, T. P. Yunck, and R. N. Hoffman

Recorded Presentation

Handout (7.5 MB)

11:30 AM

J6.5

Impact of High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature on Simulated Sea Breezes

Kelly Lombardo, Univ. of Connecticut, Groton, CT; and E. Sinsky, J. Edson, and M. Whitney

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

J6.6

Impact of UAS Data on Supercell Evolution in an Observing System Simulation Experiment

Jason M. Keeler, Univ. of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and A. L. Houston

Recorded Presentation

Joint Session 8

Weather and Climate Modeling in the Polar Regions, including Sea Ice Prediction Part II

Location: Conference Center: Skagit 3 (Washington State Convention Center )

Hosts: (Joint between the 14th Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography; and the 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction )

Chair: David B. Reusch, New Mexico Tech

Paper J8.1 has moved. It is now Poster 1312A

10:30 AM

J8.1A

Relationship Between Snow Cover and Temperature Trends in Observational and Earth-System Model Ensembles

Paul J. Kushner, Univ. of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; and L. Mudryk, C. Derksen, R. Brown, and C. Thackeray

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

J8.2

Sea Ice Evolution in the Pacific Arctic by Selected CMIP5 Models: the Present and the Future

Muyin Wang, University of Washington, Seattle,, WA; and Q. Yang and J. E. Overland

11:00 AM

J8.3

Prediction of Seasonal Arctic Sea Ice Extent Using the North American Multimodel Ensemble

Kirstin J. Harnos, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC/Innovim, College Park, MD; and M. L'Heureux and Q. Zhang

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

J8.4

15-Day Hindcast Experiments with the Uncouped CICE Ice Model

Shan Sun, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and A. Solomon, R. Grumbine, and J. Intrieri

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

J8.5

Sea Ice in the NCEP Climate Forecast System

Xingren Wu, EMC, College Park, MD; and S. Saha, R. Grumbine, and D. Bailey

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

J8.6

A Numerical Model of Nonlinearity in Wave Attenuation by Sea Ice

Filippo Nelli, Swinburne University of Technology, Hawthorn, Australia; and L. G. Bennetts, D. M. Skene, J. P. Monty, J. H. Lee, M. H. Meylan, A. V. Babanin, and A. Toffoli

Recorded Presentation

Session 13

Results from Recent Field Campaigns II: VORTEX-SE, OWLeS, and Others

Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 3 (Washington State Convention Center )

Host: 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Cochairs: Patrick S. Market, Univ. of Missouri; Scott M. Steiger, SUNY

10:30 AM

13.1

The Enhancement of Lake-Effect Precipitation over the Tug Hill Plateau during the Ontario Winter Lake-effect Systems (OWLeS) Field Program

W. James Steenburgh, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and L. Campbell, P. G. Veals, J. R. Minder, T. W. Letcher, B. Geerts, D. Welsh, and P. T. Bergmaier

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

13.2

Understanding Heavy Lake-Effect Snow: On Secondary Circulations within LLAP Bands Over Lake Ontario

Philip T. Bergmaier, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY; and B. Geerts, W. J. Steenburgh, and L. Campbell

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

13.3

Evaluation of Cloud Microphysical Schemes in a Simulated Warm Frontal Snowband During the GPM Cold Season Precipitation Experiment (GCPEx)

Aaron Naeger, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and B. A. Colle and A. L. Molthan

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

13.4

Application of Ensemble-Based Sensitivity Analysis During SHOUT

Ryan D. Torn, SUNY, Albany, NY; and R. Rios-Berrios, Z. Zhang, and A. Brammer

Recorded Presentation

13.5

VORTEX-SE: Year 1 Successes and Challenges from the Local NWS Perspective

11:45 AM

13.6

Performance of the NSSL Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System for Ensembles (NEWS-e) during VORTEX-Southeast

Patrick S. Skinner, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. M. Wheatley, K. H. Knopfmeier, T. A. Jones, D. C. Dowell, T. T. Ladwig, C. R. Alexander, R. A. Sobash, G. J. Creager, C. K. Potvin, and L. J. Wicker

Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 26 January 2017

Lunch Break

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 26 January 2017

Joint Session 7

Advances in Data Assimilation and Observational Sensitivity with High Performance Computing

Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 4 (Washington State Convention Center )

Hosts: (Joint between the 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the Third Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate )

Cochairs: Glen Romine, NCAR; Fuqing Zhang, Pennsylvania State Univ.

J7.1 will now present as J7.6A

1:30 PM

J7.1A

Perturbation Methods for Ensemble Data Assimilation

Kazuo Saito, MRI/JAMSTEC, Tsukuba, Japan; and M. Kunii, L. Duc, and T. Kurihana

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

J7.2

Design of a Satellite-Based Observing System for the Analysis and Prediction of Multi-Scale Weather and Convectively-Coupled Tropical Waves using EnKF

Yue Ying, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and F. Zhang

2:00 PM

J7.3

A Bin-Classifier Model to Diagnose and Forecast Deep Convection

Christina Bonfanti, NOAA/ESRL and CIRES, Boulder, CO; and A. E. MacDonald

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

J7.4

Short-term (0-6 h) Probabilistic Extreme Rainfall Forecasts Using a Prototype Warn-on-Forecast System

Nusrat Yussouf, CIMMS/OU/NSSL, Norman, OK; and J. S. Kain, K. H. Knopfmeier, J. Zhang, and Y. Wang

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

J7.5

Examination of mesoscale feedbacks on convective scale predictability during MPEX

Logan C. Dawson, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and R. J. Trapp, G. S. Romine, and M. E. Baldwin

Recorded Presentation

J7.6

EXAMINING THE EFFECTS OF DIFFERING TIME SCALES IN COUPLED DATA ASSIMILATION USING THE LORENZ 96 DOUBLE-RING MODEL

2:45 PM

J7.6A

Assessment and Decomposition of Analysis and Forecast Error Variance into Growing and Decaying Components

Jie Feng, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and Z. Toth and M. Pena

Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM

Development and Application of Microphysics Scheme-Consistent Cloud Opticl Properties for CRTM in Microwave - Scott Sieron

Recorded Presentation

Joint Session 9

Weather and Climate Modeling in the Polar Regions, including Sea Ice Prediction Part III

Location: Conference Center: Skagit 3 (Washington State Convention Center )

Hosts: (Joint between the 14th Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography; and the 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction )

Chair: Mark W. Seefeldt, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado

1:30 PM

J9.1

Bringing Together the Observational and Modeling Communities

David A. Bailey, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. M. Holland, J. Kay, and N. Jeffery

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

J9.2

Evaluation and Improvement of Polar WRF Simulations Using the Observed Atmospheric Profiles in the Arctic Seasonal Ice Zone

Zheng Liu, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and A. J. Schweiger

Recorded Presentation

J9.3

Sea Ice Model Skill Assessment

2:00 PM

J9.3A

Runaway Change in the Arctic? Extreme 2016 Temperatures

James E. Overland, NOAA/OAR/PMEL, Seattle, WA; and M. Wang

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

J9.4

Regional Arctic Sea-Ice Prediction: Potential Versus Operational Seasonal Forecast Skill

Mitch Bushuk, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and R. Msadek, M. Winton, G. A. Vecchi, R. Gudgel, A. Rosati, and X. Yang

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

J9.5

OSE and OSSE Studies to Evaluate the Impact of Real and Simulated Global Hawk Data on Winter Storm Forecasts over Alaska and the Arctic

Andrew C Kren, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Boulder, CO; and H. Wang, J. M. English, T. R. Peevey, and L. Cucurull

Recorded Presentation

Handout (8.1 MB)

2:45 PM

J9.6

Model Evaluation in Central Greenland Using a Comprehensive Set of Atmospheric and Surface Measurements

Nathaniel Miller, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and M. Shupe, J. Lenaerts, J. Kay, and R. Bennartz

Recorded Presentation

Session 14

Results from Recent Field Campaigns III: OLYMPEX

Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 3 (Washington State Convention Center )

Host: 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Cochairs: Angela K. Rowe, Univ. of Washington; Deanna A. Hence, Univ. of Illinois; Jennifer DeHart, University of Washington

1:30 PM

14.1

OLYMPEX: A Grand Field Campaign to Study Pacific Storms Passing over a West Coast Mountain Range

Robert A. Houze Jr., Univ. of Washington/PNNL, Seattle, WA; and L. A. McMurdie, W. A. Petersen, and M. R. Schwaller

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

14.2

OLYMPEX: Operations and Observations during the Intensive Field Phase

Lynn A. McMurdie, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and R. A. Houze Jr.

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

14.3

Characterization and Classification of Precipitation Using the NASA D3R Observations during GPM OLYMPEx Field Campaign

V. Chandrasekar, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and H. Chen, R. M. Beauchamp, S. Joshil, and M. Vaccarono

2:15 PM

14.4

Validation of Simulated Orographic Precipitation Structures in OLYMPEX Using Different Microphysical Schemes

Brian A. Colle, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and A. Naeger and A. L. Molthan

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

14.5

Small Scale Post-frontal Convection During OLYMPEX: A Start at Case Studies

Ed Zipser, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

14.6

Using OLYMPEX High Elevation Measurements to Evaluate Predicted Frozen Precipitation by both PRISM and WRF (4/3 km) in the Olympic Mountains during WY 2015 and 2016

William Ryan Currier, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and T. Thorson and J. D. Lundquist

Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 26 January 2017

Coffee Break

Location: Skybridge (Washington State Convention Center )

3:30 PM-5:00 PM: Thursday, 26 January 2017

Joint Session 10

Weather and Climate Modeling in the Polar Regions, including Sea Ice Prediction Part IV

Location: Conference Center: Skagit 3 (Washington State Convention Center )

Hosts: (Joint between the 14th Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography; and the 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction )

Chair: Ryan L. Fogt, Ohio Univ.

3:30 PM

J10.1

Ongoing Improvements in Atmospheric Physics Parameterizations with the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM)

Mark W. Seefeldt, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and J. J. Cassano and A. K. DuVivier

Recorded Presentation

3:45 PM

J10.2

Impact of Model Physics on Seasonal Forecasts of Surface Air Temperature in the Arctic

Qiong Yang, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and M. Wang, J. E. Overland, W. Wang, and T. Collow

Recorded Presentation

Handout (9.7 MB)

4:00 PM

J10.3

Observations of Surface Momentum Exchange over the Marginal Ice Zone and Recommendations for Its Parametrisation

Andrew D. Elvidge, University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom; and I. A. Renfrew, A. I. Weiss, I. M. Brooks, T. Lachlan-Cope, and J. C. King

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

J10.4

The 2014-2105 Polar Winds Airborne Campaigns: Investigating Lower Tropospheric Circulations and Model Performance near Greenland Utilizing Doppler Wind Lidar and Dropsondes

Steven Greco, Simpson Weather Associates, Charlottesville, VA; and G. D. Emmitt, A. K. DuVivier, J. J. Cassano, and K. M. Hines

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

J10.5

Coupled Single-Column Model Framework for Polar Processes

Kerstin Hartung, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden; and G. Svensson and H. Struthers

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

J10.6

NWS Alaska Sea Ice Program: Operations, Customer Support & Challenges

Rebecca Heim, NOAA/NWS, Anchorage, AK; and M. B. Schreck

Recorded Presentation

Session 15A

Tropical Cyclone Forecasting

Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 3 (Washington State Convention Center )

Host: 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Cochairs: Alicia M. Bentley, SUNY; Mark Leidner, AER

3:30 PM

15A.1

Hurricane Joaquin and the South Carolina Flood of October 2015

Christopher G. Marciano, Applied Research Associates, Inc., Alexandria, VA; and G. M. Lackmann

Recorded Presentation

3:45 PM

15A.2

Sensitivity of the Structural Evolution of Hurricane Sandy to Variations in Storm Track

Alex Kowaleski, Valparaiso University, Valparaiso, IN; and J. L. Evans

Recorded Presentation

4:00 PM

15A.3

Evaluation of Ensemble Forecasts for Tropical Cyclogenesis from African Easterly Waves

Alan Brammer, SUNY, Albany, NY; and C. D. Thorncroft and J. P. Dunion

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

15A.4

Influence of Storm-Environment Interactions on Tropical Cyclone Development from a Train of African Easterly Waves

James P Fowler, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and T. J. Galarneau Jr.

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

15A.5

A Multi-Case Perspective on Tropical Cyclone Intensification under Moderate Vertical Wind Shear

Rosimar Rios-Berrios, SUNY, Albany, NY; and R. D. Torn

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

15A.6

An Analog Methodology for Identifying Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast Biases in the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) Model

Daniel J. Halperin, SUNY, Albany, NY; and R. D. Torn

Recorded Presentation

Session 15B

Predictability and Data Assimilation

Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 4 (Washington State Convention Center )

Host: 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Cochairs: Brian C. Ancell, Texas Tech Univ.; John M. Peters, NPS

3:30 PM

15B.1

Exploring the Role of Intraseasonal Oscillations on African Easterly Wave Predictability in the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System

Travis J. Elless, University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and R. D. Torn

Recorded Presentation

3:45 PM

15B.2

A Predictability Study on the Role of Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclone Events on the Weak Stratospheric Vortex of November 1996

Andrea L. Lang, University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and H. E. Attard

Recorded Presentation

4:00 PM

15B.3

Evidence for “adjustment” in the Integration of Adjoints of Numerical Weather Prediction Models

Michael C. Morgan, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. Oswald and M. Bonello

Recorded Presentation

15B.4

Real-time storm-scale data assimilation and forecasting experiments for NOAA's Warn-on-Forecast Project

4:15 PM

15B.4A

An Examination of HRRR and HRRRX Performance and Utility For Two Similar and Challenging Colorado Snowstorms

Ed Szoke, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRA, Boulder, CO; and S. Benjamin, C. R. Alexander, J. M. Brown, D. Barjenbruch, R. Kleyla, and B. Meier

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

15B.5

Assessment of assimilating Cloud Water Path into the NSSL Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System for Ensemble (NEWS-e) during the 2016 Hazardous Weather Testbed

Thomas A. Jones, CIMMS, Norman, OK; and D. M. Wheatley, K. H. Knopfmeier, P. S. Skinner, D. C. Dowell, T. T. Ladwig, C. R. Alexander, P. Minnis, and R. Palikonda

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

15B.6

Exploring the Impact of Tropical Cyclone Relocation in the Operational NCEP GFS/GDAS

Michael J. Brennan, NHC, Miami, FL; and D. T. Kleist, R. Mahajan, C. Thomas, and S. J. Majumdar

Recorded Presentation

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Monday, 23 January 2017

Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | top

10:30 AM-11:00 AM: Monday, 23 January 2017

Coffee Break (6th Floor Foyer)

Location: Washington State Convention Center

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 23 January 2017

Forecasting Techniques: Aviation, Fire Weather, and Hydrologic Forecasting

Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 3 (Washington State Convention Center )

Model Center Overviews, Part I

Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 4 (Washington State Convention Center )

Model Center Overviews

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Monday, 23 January 2017

Lunch Break

1:30 PM-2:00 PM: Monday, 23 January 2017

L 1

Lecture Walter Orr Roberts Lecture

Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 2 (Washington State Convention Center )

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Monday, 23 January 2017

Winter Weather I: Mesoscale

Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 3 (Washington State Convention Center )

Model Center Overviews, Part II

Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 4 (Washington State Convention Center )

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Monday, 23 January 2017

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

Location: 4E (Washington State Convention Center )

P 1

Poster Session WAF/NWP Posters: Weather Phenomena, Observations, and Forecasting

Location: 4E (Washington State Convention Center )

Posters on the topics of: Winter Weather, Mesoscale Meteorology and Severe Local Storms, and Other Weather Phenomena, Forecasting Techniques (Aviation, Fire Weather, and Hydrological), Recent Field Campaigns, and Other Contributions

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Monday, 23 January 2017

Winter Weather II: Synoptic

Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 3 (Washington State Convention Center )

Updates on Global and Mesoscale Models

Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 4 (Washington State Convention Center )

5:30 PM-7:30 PM: Monday, 23 January 2017

Reception and Exhibits Opening

Location: 4AB (Washington State Convention Center )

7:00 PM-9:30 PM: Monday, 23 January 2017

Third Annual Speed Networking Event for Students and Early Career Professionals

Location: Atrium Lobby (Washington State Convention Center )

Sponsors: Aerospace, ERT and Science and Technology Corp (STC)

Tuesday, 24 January 2017

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8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 24 January 2017

Forecasting Techniques: Winter and Severe Precipitation Systems

Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 3 (Washington State Convention Center )

New or Improved Parameterizations

Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 4 (Washington State Convention Center )

New or Improved Parameterizations

TJ 5

Themed Joint Session Critical and Missing Observations

Location: 607 (Washington State Convention Center )

Critical Missing Observations for Weather Prediction

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Tuesday, 24 January 2017

Coffee Break

Location: 4AB (Washington State Convention Center )

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 24 January 2017

Forecasting Tools I: Satellite Applications; Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts; Decision Support Services

Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 3 (Washington State Convention Center )

NOAA Next Generation Global Prediction System

Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 4 (Washington State Convention Center )

NOAA Next Generation Global Prediction System

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Tuesday, 24 January 2017

Lunch Break

12:15 PM-1:15 PM: Tuesday, 24 January 2017

Town Hall Meeting: NOAA Modeling Development Forum

Location: 613 (Washington State Convention Center )

Numerical modeling executed in the NCEP Production Suite (NPS) forms the foundation of all forecasting of the National Weather Service (NWS). The NWS needs to remain at the cutting-edge of research and model development, and continuously transition science advances from the research community to operations. A key element in modernizing the NPS is the 2015 external review performed by the UCACN Model Advisory Committee (UMAC). Some of the key recommendations were simplification and better governance of the NPS, and a closer working relationship between the NWS and NOAA research and academia in general. A second key element is the Next Generation Global Prediction System project, where the NWS has started to adopt a more project-oriented approach to improving the NPS. This town hall is designed to communicate progress on model development and response to UMAC recommendations to the public, and to provide a forum for gathering feedback from our customers.

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Tuesday, 24 January 2017

Forecasting Tools II: New Applications

Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 3 (Washington State Convention Center )

Model Evaluation, Validation, and Verification

Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 4 (Washington State Convention Center )

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Tuesday, 24 January 2017

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

Location: 4E (Washington State Convention Center )

P 2

Poster Session WAF/NWP Posters: Forecasting Tools, Numerical Weather Prediction, and Tropical Cyclones

Location: 4E (Washington State Convention Center )

Posters on the Topics of: Tropical Cyclones, Forecasting Tools, New or Improved Parameterizations, Model Development and Application

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 24 January 2017

J 1

Joint Session Strategies for Long-term Renewable Energy Resource Development

Location: 606 (Washington State Convention Center )

Testbed, Proving Ground, and Research-to-Operations Activities

Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 3 (Washington State Convention Center )

Testbed, Proving Ground, and Research-to-Operations Activities

Model Development and Application

Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 4 (Washington State Convention Center )

TJ 11

Themed Joint Session Data Assimilation, Research, Theory and Practice

Location: Conference Center: Skagit 5 (Washington State Convention Center )

Given the tremendous volume of observations, and the ever increasing resolution of numerical weather prediction models the need to incorporate information at a tremendous range of spatial/temporal scales requires advances in both the science and the computer science of data assimilation systems. This joint session will present talks that target the union of science and computer science, and how advances in both areas will improve the output of data assimilation systems.

Wednesday, 25 January 2017

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8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 25 January 2017

J 2

Joint Session The Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) Part I

Location: 606 (Washington State Convention Center )

New Ensemble Techniques, Part I

Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 4 (Washington State Convention Center )

Ronald W. Przybylinski Memorial Session on Elevated Convection

Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 3 (Washington State Convention Center )

10:00 AM-10:15 AM: Wednesday, 25 January 2017

Weather Analysis and Forecasting Awards Brainstorming Session

Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 4 (Washington State Convention Center )

15-20 minute brainstorming session for WAF/NWP attendees on possible ways to gather more award nominations.

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 25 January 2017

Coffee Break

Location: 4AB (Washington State Convention Center )

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 25 January 2017

J 3

Joint Session The Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) Part 2

Location: 606 (Washington State Convention Center )

New Ensemble Techniques, Part II

Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 4 (Washington State Convention Center )

Mesoscale Meteorology and Severe Local Storms, Part I

Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 3 (Washington State Convention Center )

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 25 January 2017

Lunch Break

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Wednesday, 25 January 2017

L 2

Lecture Horton Lecture

Location: 602 (Washington State Convention Center )

J 4

Joint Session Forecasting for Wind Energy: General Topics

Location: 606 (Washington State Convention Center )

10A

MPAS

Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 4 (Washington State Convention Center )

10B

Mesoscale Meteorology and Severe Local Storms, Part II

Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 3 (Washington State Convention Center )

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Wednesday, 25 January 2017

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

Location: 4E (Washington State Convention Center )

P 3

Poster Session WAF/NWP Posters: Numerical Weather Prediction

Location: 4E (Washington State Convention Center )

Posters on the Topics of: Global and Mesoscale Models, Data Assimilation, Ensemble Techniques, New and Unique Observational Datasets, Season to Subseasonal Prediction, and Other NWP Contributions

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 25 January 2017

11A

The National Earth System Prediction Capability Agenda for Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction (S2S)

Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 4 (Washington State Convention Center )

The National Earth System Prediction Capability is a partnership of five Federal agencies collaborating to address research and operational issues from weather to decadal time scales. 2015 WMO and the 2016 NRC reports on S2S call for broad US and international collaboration between academia, operational centers, private industry and the user community to advance earth system predictive capability beyond two weeks and to build and sustain a coordinated US S2S research capability. The National ESPC agencies will present their agenda to address these reports and move the US toward a robust S2S research and predictive capability. Expected presentations: - National ESPC overview and goals for S2S - National ESPC research member agencies (principals or program managers) present their agency agenda for building an S2S research community and their primary research focus areas. - National ESPC operational member agencies present their agenda for addressing S2S operations, support for research access to S2S prediction systems, and plans for user involvement in product development.

11B

Weather Phenomena from Mesoscale to Synoptic Scale

Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 3 (Washington State Convention Center )

5:30 PM-6:30 PM: Wednesday, 25 January 2017

Awards Banquet Reception

Location: 4AB (Washington State Convention Center )

7:00 PM-10:00 PM: Wednesday, 25 January 2017

97th AMS Awards Banquet

Location: Ballroom 6ABCE (Washington State Convention Center )

Thursday, 26 January 2017

Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | top

8:30 AM-9:30 AM: Thursday, 26 January 2017

J 5

Joint Session Weather and Climate Modeling in the Polar Regions, Including Sea Ice Prediction Part I

Location: Conference Center: Skagit 3 (Washington State Convention Center )

12A

Tropical Cyclone Modeling and Prediction

Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 4 (Washington State Convention Center )

12B

Results from Recent Field Campaigns I: PECAN

Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 3 (Washington State Convention Center )

9:30 AM-10:30 AM: Thursday, 26 January 2017

Exhibit Hall Breakfast

Location: 4AB (Washington State Convention Center )

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 26 January 2017

J 6

Joint Session New and Unique Observational Datasets

Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 4 (Washington State Convention Center )

J 8

Joint Session Weather and Climate Modeling in the Polar Regions, including Sea Ice Prediction Part II

Location: Conference Center: Skagit 3 (Washington State Convention Center )

Results from Recent Field Campaigns II: VORTEX-SE, OWLeS, and Others

Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 3 (Washington State Convention Center )

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 26 January 2017

Lunch Break

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 26 January 2017

J 7

Joint Session Advances in Data Assimilation and Observational Sensitivity with High Performance Computing

Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 4 (Washington State Convention Center )

J 9

Joint Session Weather and Climate Modeling in the Polar Regions, including Sea Ice Prediction Part III

Location: Conference Center: Skagit 3 (Washington State Convention Center )

Results from Recent Field Campaigns III: OLYMPEX

Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 3 (Washington State Convention Center )

OLYMPEX field campaign

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 26 January 2017

Coffee Break

Location: Skybridge (Washington State Convention Center )

3:30 PM-5:00 PM: Thursday, 26 January 2017

J 10

Joint Session Weather and Climate Modeling in the Polar Regions, including Sea Ice Prediction Part IV

Location: Conference Center: Skagit 3 (Washington State Convention Center )

15A

Tropical Cyclone Forecasting

Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 3 (Washington State Convention Center )

15B

Predictability and Data Assimilation

Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 4 (Washington State Convention Center )

» Expand View

Session 15B 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Monday, 23 January 2017

10:30 AM-11:00 AM: Monday, 23 January 2017

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 23 January 2017

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Monday, 23 January 2017

1:30 PM-2:00 PM: Monday, 23 January 2017

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Monday, 23 January 2017

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Monday, 23 January 2017

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Monday, 23 January 2017

5:30 PM-7:30 PM: Monday, 23 January 2017

7:00 PM-9:30 PM: Monday, 23 January 2017

Tuesday, 24 January 2017

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 24 January 2017

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Tuesday, 24 January 2017

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 24 January 2017

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Tuesday, 24 January 2017

12:15 PM-1:15 PM: Tuesday, 24 January 2017

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Tuesday, 24 January 2017

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Tuesday, 24 January 2017

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 24 January 2017

Wednesday, 25 January 2017

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 25 January 2017

10:00 AM-10:15 AM: Wednesday, 25 January 2017

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 25 January 2017

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 25 January 2017

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 25 January 2017

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Wednesday, 25 January 2017

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Wednesday, 25 January 2017

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 25 January 2017

5:30 PM-6:30 PM: Wednesday, 25 January 2017

7:00 PM-10:00 PM: Wednesday, 25 January 2017

Thursday, 26 January 2017

8:30 AM-9:30 AM: Thursday, 26 January 2017

9:30 AM-10:30 AM: Thursday, 26 January 2017

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 26 January 2017

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 26 January 2017

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 26 January 2017

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 26 January 2017

3:30 PM-5:00 PM: Thursday, 26 January 2017

Monday, 23 January 2017

10:30 AM-11:00 AM: Monday, 23 January 2017

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 23 January 2017

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Monday, 23 January 2017

1:30 PM-2:00 PM: Monday, 23 January 2017

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Monday, 23 January 2017

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Monday, 23 January 2017

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Monday, 23 January 2017

5:30 PM-7:30 PM: Monday, 23 January 2017

7:00 PM-9:30 PM: Monday, 23 January 2017

Tuesday, 24 January 2017

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 24 January 2017

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Tuesday, 24 January 2017

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 24 January 2017

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Tuesday, 24 January 2017

12:15 PM-1:15 PM: Tuesday, 24 January 2017

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Tuesday, 24 January 2017

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Tuesday, 24 January 2017

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 24 January 2017

Wednesday, 25 January 2017

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 25 January 2017

10:00 AM-10:15 AM: Wednesday, 25 January 2017

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 25 January 2017

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 25 January 2017

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 25 January 2017

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Wednesday, 25 January 2017

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Wednesday, 25 January 2017

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 25 January 2017

5:30 PM-6:30 PM: Wednesday, 25 January 2017

7:00 PM-10:00 PM: Wednesday, 25 January 2017

Thursday, 26 January 2017

8:30 AM-9:30 AM: Thursday, 26 January 2017

9:30 AM-10:30 AM: Thursday, 26 January 2017

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 26 January 2017

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 26 January 2017

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 26 January 2017

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 26 January 2017

3:30 PM-5:00 PM: Thursday, 26 January 2017