Session 15B 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Program Chairs: Alexander O. Tardy , NOAA/NWS ; Rebecca Adams-Selin , AER

- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates paper is an Award Winner

Monday, 23 January 2017

10:30 AM-11:00 AM: Monday, 23 January 2017


Coffee Break (6th Floor Foyer)
Location: Washington State Convention Center

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 23 January 2017

Recording files available
Session 1A
Forecasting Techniques: Aviation, Fire Weather, and Hydrologic Forecasting
Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 3 (Washington State Convention Center )
Host: 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Alexander O. Tardy, NOAA/NWS; Jennifer Hegarty, AER
11:00 AM
1A.1
Capturing Plume Rise and Dispersion with WRF-Fire: an RxCADRE Case Study
Nadya Moisseeva, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and R. B. Stull
11:15 AM
1A.2
Convective Weather Forecasts and Applications for Aviation
Haig Iskenderian, MIT Lincoln Laboratory, Lexington, MA; and M. S. Veillette, M. Matthews, J. Venuti, C. J. Mattioli, P. M. Lamey, E. P. Hassey, and R. Bass
11:45 AM
1A.4
A Synoptic Comparison of Two High-Impact Predecessor Rainfall Events: Tropical Storm Lee/Hurricane Katia of September 2011 and Hurricane Joaquin of October 2015
Michael L. Jurewicz Sr., NOAA/NWS Binghamton, NY Weather Forecast Office, Johnson City, NY; and C. M. Gitro, S. J. kusselson, J. M. Forsythe, A. S. Jones, S. kidder, D. Bikos, and E. J. Szoke
Recording files available
Session 1B
Model Center Overviews, Part I
Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 4 (Washington State Convention Center )
Host: 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Rebecca Adams-Selin, AER; R. Bruce Telfeyan, 557th Weather Wing
Paper 1B.1 will now present at 11:30 a.m.and Paper 1B.2 will now present at 11:00 a.m.

11:30 AM
1B.1

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Monday, 23 January 2017


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-2:00 PM: Monday, 23 January 2017

Recording files available
Lecture 1
Walter Orr Roberts Lecture
Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 2 (Washington State Convention Center )
Hosts: (Joint between the 33rd Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 31st Conference on Hydrology; the 29th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; the 26th Symposium on Education; the 21st Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface; the 19th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 18th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the 15th Conference on Artificial and Computational Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences; the 15th Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 14th Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography; the 14th Conference on Space Weather; the 13th Annual Symposium on New Generation Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the Major Weather Impacts of 2016; the 12th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the Ninth Symposium on Aerosol–Cloud–Climate Interactions; the Eighth Conference on Weather, Climate, Water and the New Energy Economy; the Eighth Conference on Environment and Health; the Eighth Symposium on Lidar Atmospheric Applications; the Eighth Conference on the Meteorological Application of Lightning Data; the Seventh Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the Seventh Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using Python; the Fifth Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; the Fifth Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation: Enhancing Our Nation’s Readiness, Responsiveness, and Resilience to High Impact Weather Events; the Fifth Symposium on Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Processes, Prediction and Impact; the Second Symposium on US-International Partnerships; and the 13th Symposium of the Urban Environment )
Speaker: Cynthia Rosenzweig, Columbia University
1:30 PM
L1.1

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Monday, 23 January 2017

Recording files available
Session 2A
Winter Weather I: Mesoscale
Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 3 (Washington State Convention Center )
Host: 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: David M. Schultz, Univ. of Helsinki/FMI; Paul J. Kocin, NOAA/NWS/NCEP
1:30 PM
2A.1
Hydrometeor Lofting in Banded Snowfall Events
Gary M. Lackmann, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and G. Thompson
2:00 PM
2A.3
Recording files available
Session 2B
Model Center Overviews, Part II
Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 4 (Washington State Convention Center )
Host: 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: R. Bruce Telfeyan, 557th Weather Wing; Andrew L. Molthan, NASA/MSFC
2:15 PM
2B.3

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Monday, 23 January 2017


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: 4E (Washington State Convention Center )

Poster Session 1
WAF/NWP Posters: Weather Phenomena, Observations, and Forecasting
Location: 4E (Washington State Convention Center )
Host: 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Rebecca Adams-Selin, AER; Alexander O. Tardy, NOAA/NWS
82
The Relationship Between the Structure of Low-Level Jets and Precipitation Extremes
Derek Hodges, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and Z. Pu

Poster 87 will now be presented as 9B.5A

Poster 91 will now be presented as 9B.6A

94
A Comparison of the Life Cycles of Elevated and Surface-Based Convection
Katharine Wunsch, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and N. I. Fox and P. S. Market

96
Factors that Influence the Growth of Supercells into MCSs after Sunset
Keenan C. Eure, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and J. M. Peters and R. S. Schumacher

97
The Role of the Nocturnal Low-Level Jet in Convection Initiation over Eastern Kansas on 2 June 2015
Joshua G. Gebauer, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and A. Shapiro, E. Fedorovich, and P. Klein

99
A Reflectivity Climatology Study of the Contiguous United States Using the Multi-Year Reanalysis of Remotely Sensed Storms (MYRORSS)
Brandon R. Smith, OU/CIMMS and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and K. L. Ortega, A. E. Reinhart, M. C. Mahalik, and T. M. Smith

100
102
A Preliminary Survey of Forecaster Decision Making in the Blended Model Era
Matthew Day, NOAA/NWSFO, Norman, OK; and T. Lindley

106
Assessment of Post-Processing Methods for Daily High and Low Temperature Prediction
Maxwell A Gawryla, The Weather Company, an IBM Business, Andover, MA; and J. K. Williams, P. P. Neilley, J. P. Koval, and S. Marshall

107
Mesoscale Forcing of Lake-Effect Precipitation over Lake Ontario during OWLeS IOP2b
W. James Steenburgh, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and L. Campbell

110
Evaluation of satellite based rain rate retrieval during OLYMPEX
Steven A. Rutledge, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and B. Dolan and W. Xu

112
Utilizing Hazard Services Concepts for Product Creation at the Aviation Weather Testbed
Austin Cross, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Aviation Weather Center, Kansas City, MO; and B. R. J. Schwedler, N. Hardin, and T. L. Hansen

Handout (18.4 MB)

113
Evaluation of Satellite Precipitation Products in the Chehalis River Basin during Winter 2015-2016 Using OLYMPEX Data
Qian Cao, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA; and D. R. Gergel, A. Mehran, B. Nijssen, W. A. Petersen, and D. P. Lettenmaier

121
Overview of the Tropical Cyclone Intensity Experiment: High-Resolution Observations of Hurricanes Patricia, Joaquin, and Marty
James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. R. Moskaitis, R. Ferek, and J. Feldmeier

Handout (15.2 MB)

122
Evaluating WRF Simulations of Planetary Boundary Layer Processes during the Baltimore–Washington, DC DISCOVER-AQ Field Campaign
Jennifer Hegarty, AER, Lexington, MA; and J. Henderson, J. Lewis Jr., E. McGrath-Spangler, A. J. Scarino, R. Adams-Selin, R. Ferrare, E. J. Welton, and P. L. DeCola

Handout (4.6 MB)

125
Verification of Near-Storm Environment Forecasts Using MPEX Upsonde Observations
Christopher A. Kerr, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. J. Stensrud and X. Wang

126
Impacts of UAS Data on Thunderstorm Forecasts during PRECIP
George Limpert, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and A. L. Houston

130
Forecast Evaluation for Convective Features
Michael E. Baldwin, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and L. C. Dawson

Poster 132 will now be presented as 584A

133
Observed Characteristics of Mesoscale Banding in Coastal Northeast U.S. Snow Storms
Nicole P. Hoban, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and S. E. Yuter, L. Tomkins, S. A. Ganetis, M. A. Miller, L. Lovell, S. R. Rhodes, E. Scott, and B. A. Colle

Handout (1.9 MB)

134
Riming Parameterization Impacts on the Microphysical Evolution of a Northeast Winter Cyclone and the Associated Snowbands
Steven Michael Naegele, Pennsylvania State University/Significant Opportunities in Atmospheric Research and Science, University Park, PA; and T. Eidhammer, G. Thompson, M. R. Kumjian, and D. J. Stensrud

136
Mechanisms Contributing to the Tug Hill Lake-Effect Precipitation Maximum during OWLeS IOP2b
Leah Campbell, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and W. J. Steenburgh

137
Lake-Effect Mode and Precipitation Enhancement over the Tug Hill Plateau during OWLeS IOP2b
Leah Campbell, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and W. J. Steenburgh, P. G. Veals, T. W. Letcher, and J. R. Minder

140
A Climatology of Snow Squalls in New England
Frank P. Colby Jr., Univ. of Massachusetts, Lowell, MA; and D. W. Coe

141
Influence of Multi-lake Connection on Lake-effect Snowfall Totals
Carrie E. Lang, SUNY, Geneseo, NY; and E. A. Jones and N. F. Laird

145
147
A Study of Significant Tornadoes Across the High Plains
Sam Ng, Metropolitan State University, Denver, CO; and T. K. Croan

148
Secondary Eyewall Forecast in HWRF
Sergio Abarca, EMC/NCEP/NOAA, College Park, MD; and L. Zhu, A. Mehra, and V. Tallapragada

149
152
Development of a Waterspout Sounding Climatology for the Florida Keys Wet Season
Andrew Devanas, NWS, Key West, FL; and K. Kasper, S. Daida, and M. Bloemer
Manuscript (3.2 MB)

Handout (3.1 MB)

155
Impact of Radar Data Assimilation on a Severe Storm Study in Brazil
Rafael Toshio Inouye, SIMEPAR - Parana Meteorological System, Curitiba, Brazil; and L. Calvetti, J. E. Goncalves, B. B. Maske, R. L. Neundorf, C. Beneti, F. L. R. Diniz, E. P. Vendrasco, D. L. Herdies, L. G. G. D. Goncalves, and A. F. Leite

156
158
Downstream Predictability of the Path and Survival of Severe Wind Producing MCSs and Derechos using RUC Analysis Data
Russell G. Danielson, University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI; and P. J. Roebber

161
Modeling the Nonlocal Effects of Summer Growing Season Irrigation in the Great Plains
Allison Bogusz, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and B. Ancell

164
Verification of QPF Forecasts from the HRRR and RUC
Zainab Ali, NOAA, Greensboro, NC; and T. Dankers

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Monday, 23 January 2017

Recording files available
Session 3A
Winter Weather II: Synoptic
Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 3 (Washington State Convention Center )
Host: 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Heather D. Reeves, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL; Martin A. Baxter, Central Michigan University
4:00 PM
3A.1
4:30 PM
3A.3
Model Comparison of the 22-24 January 2016 Nor'easter
Holly M. Mallinson, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and S. D. Nicholls and A. E. Emory
5:00 PM
3A.5
Strong Winds in Extratropical Cyclones: Sting Jets and Cold Conveyor Belts
David M. Schultz, University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom

Handout (11.1 MB)

Recording files available
Session 3B
Updates on Global and Mesoscale Models
Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 4 (Washington State Convention Center )
Host: 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Jonathan Porter, AccuWeather, Inc; David Ruth, NOAA/NWS
4:00 PM
3B.1
Next Generation NWP Using a Spectral Element Dynamical Core
James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and P. A. Reinecke, K. C. Viner, S. Gabersek, M. Martini, D. D. Flagg, J. Michalakes, D. R. Ryglicki, and F. X. Giraldo
4:15 PM
3B.2
Evaluation of the May 2016 GFS Upgrade
Glenn H. White, EMC, College Park, MD; and V. Tallapragada, F. Yang, R. Treadon, T. A. Dorian, P. Bhattacharjee, S. Saha, and J. S. Woollen
5:00 PM
3B.5
Expanding the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) from Deterministic to Ensemble Data Assimilation, Forecasts and Post-Processing
Curtis R. Alexander, NOAA/ESRL and CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and D. C. Dowell, T. Alcott, I. Jankov, T. Ladwig, M. Hu, J. Beck, J. B. Olson, T. G. Smirnova, J. Kenyon, G. Grell, S. G. Benjamin, S. Weygandt, J. Brown, E. P. James, T. L. Smith, and J. A. Hamilton
5:15 PM
3B.6
U.S. Numerical Weather Prediction: A Report Card
Clifford F. Mass, University of Washington, Seattle, WA

5:30 PM-7:30 PM: Monday, 23 January 2017


Reception and Exhibits Opening
Location: 4AB (Washington State Convention Center )

7:00 PM-9:30 PM: Monday, 23 January 2017


Third Annual Speed Networking Event for Students and Early Career Professionals
Location: Atrium Lobby (Washington State Convention Center )

Tuesday, 24 January 2017

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 24 January 2017

Recording files available
Session 4A
Forecasting Techniques: Winter and Severe Precipitation Systems
Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 3 (Washington State Convention Center )
Host: 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Jason E. Nachamkin, NRL; Tara Jensen, NCAR
9:15 AM
4A.4
9:45 AM
4A.6
Forecasting the Inland Penetration of Lake-Effect Long-Lake-Axis Parallel Snowbands
Daniel T. Eipper, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and G. S. Young, S. J. Greybush, and S. Saslo
Recording files available
Session 4B
New or Improved Parameterizations
Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 4 (Washington State Convention Center )
Host: 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Aaron Naeger, Univ. of Missouri; Andrew L. Molthan, NASA/MSFC
9:00 AM
4B.3
Improving the Representation of Convective Storms in the Unified Model at 1.5 km to 50 m Gridlength
Kirsty E. Hanley, UKMO, Reading, United Kingdom; and H. W. Lean, C. E. Halliwell, A. Stirling, and M. Whitall

9:15 AM
4B.4
The New Ferrier-Aligo Microphysics in the NCEP 3-km NAM Nest
Eric Aligo, EMC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA and I.M. Systems Group, Inc., College Park, MD; and B. S. Ferrier, G. Thompson, J. R. Carley, E. Rogers, and G. DiMego
Recording files available
Themed Joint Session 5
Critical and Missing Observations
Location: 607 (Washington State Convention Center )
Hosts: (Joint between the 21st Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface; and the 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction )
Chair: Sharan Majumdar, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS
8:30 AM
TJ5.1
The NASA CYGNSS Satellite Constellation for Tropical Cyclone Observations
Christopher S. Ruf, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and R. Atlas, P. Chang, M. P. Clarizia, J. L. Garrison, S. Gleason, S. J. Katzberg, Z. Jelenak, J. T. Johnson, S. J. Majumdar, A. O'Brien, D. J. Posselt, D. provost, A. Ridley, R. Rose, F. Said, J. Scherrer, S. Soisuvarn, and V. Zavorotny
9:15 AM
TJ5.4
9:30 AM
TJ5.5

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Tuesday, 24 January 2017


Coffee Break
Location: 4AB (Washington State Convention Center )

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 24 January 2017

Recording files available
Session 5A
Forecasting Tools I: Satellite Applications; Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts; Decision Support Services
Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 3 (Washington State Convention Center )
Host: 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Sam Ng, Metropolitan State University; Aaron Naeger, University of Alabama
10:30 AM
5A.1
Investigating a New Fire Weather Index Using Reanalysis Data
Alan F. Srock, Saint Cloud State University, Saint Cloud, MN; and J. J. Charney, B. Potter, and S. L. Goodrick
Recording files available
Session 5B
NOAA Next Generation Global Prediction System
Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 4 (Washington State Convention Center )
Host: 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Rusty Benson, NOAA/GFDL; Clark Evans, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee; Yi Ming, GFDL
10:30 AM
5B.1
The Next Generation Global Prediction System with the FV3
S. -J. Lin, NOAA, Pricenton, NJ; and L. M. Harris, R. Benson, J. H. Chen, L. Zhou, and X. Chen
10:45 AM
5B.2
Towards Global-to-Regional Forecasting with a Next-Generation Forecast Model: fvGFS
Lucas M. Harris, GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and S. J. Lin, L. Zhou, J. H. Chen, R. Benson, and S. Rees
11:15 AM
5B.4
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts in a Next Generation Global Model
Jan-Huey Chen, NOAA/GFDL, UCAR, Princeton, NJ; and S. J. Lin, L. Harris, L. Zhou, S. Rees, and X. Chen

11:30 AM
5B.5
Ten-day Weather Forecasts using a 4-45 km Variable-resolution Global Model: fvGFS
Linjiong Zhou, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and S. J. Lin, J. H. Chen, L. M. Harris, and X. Chen
11:45 AM
5B.6

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Tuesday, 24 January 2017


Lunch Break

12:15 PM-1:15 PM: Tuesday, 24 January 2017


Town Hall Meeting: NOAA Modeling Development Forum
Location: 613 (Washington State Convention Center )
Hosts: (Joint between the Town Hall Meetings; and the 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction )
Organizer: Rebecca Adams-Selin, AER
Chairs/Co-chairs: Hendrik Tolman, NOAA; Michael Farrar, NOAA/NWS
12:15 PM
Town Hall Presentation
Hendrik Tolman, NOAA, Silver Spring, MD; and M. Ji, M. Farrar, and M. Ek

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Tuesday, 24 January 2017

Recording files available
Session 6A
Forecasting Tools II: New Applications
Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 3 (Washington State Convention Center )
Host: 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Kristopher D. White, NOAA; Alexander O. Tardy, NOAA/NWS
1:30 PM
6A.1
Bringing It All Together: A Prototype for a Probabilistic National Blend of Models
Zoltan Toth, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and M. S. Antolik, R. Krzysztofowicz, G. J. Layne, M. A. Petty, and M. Pena
2:00 PM
6A.3
Gridded MOS Improvements over the CONUS and Alaska
Bob Glahn, NOAA/NWS/MDL, Silver Spring, MD; and G. A. Wagner and P. E. Shafer
2:15 PM
6A.4
Recording files available
Session 6B
Model Evaluation, Validation, and Verification
Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 4 (Washington State Convention Center )
Host: 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Paul J. Roebber, University of Wisconsin; Brian A. Colle, SUNY
1:30 PM
6B.1
Evaluation of New Methods for Verification of Cloud Predictions
Barbara G. Brown, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and K. Newman, T. L. Jensen, E. Gilleland, and J. H. Gotway
2:00 PM
6B.3
Understanding the Existence of Quasi-Universal Scaling Characteristics of the Lower Atmospheric Boundary Layer Wind Speeds in the Mesoscale Regime
Velayudhan Praju Kiliyanpilakkil, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, Raleigh, NC; and S. Basu

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Tuesday, 24 January 2017


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: 4E (Washington State Convention Center )

Poster Session 2
WAF/NWP Posters: Forecasting Tools, Numerical Weather Prediction, and Tropical Cyclones
Location: 4E (Washington State Convention Center )
Host: 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Rebecca Adams-Selin, AER; Alexander O. Tardy, NOAA/NWS
550
An Investigation of the Formation of Hurricane Patricia (2015)
Melinda S Peng, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. D. Doyle and H. Jin

553
High-Resolution Simulation of Super Typhoon Nepartak (2016)
Hao Jin, NRL, Monterey, CA; and Y. Jin and J. D. Doyle

554
Towards the creation of the Global-2-Vortex Scale Hurricane Prediction System
Sundararaman Gopalakrishnan (gopal), NOAA/AOML, Key Biscayne, FL; and F. Marks, V. Tallapragada, X. Zhang, S. J. Lin, R. Atlas, T. Schneider, and F. Toepfer

556
558
Impacts of Ocean Initialization and Three-Way Atmosphere-Wave-Ocean Coupling on Hurricane Forecasting
Bin Liu, IMSG at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and J. Meixner, A. Mehra, A. Chawla, I. Ginis, B. Thomas, B. Reichl, T. Hara, H. S. Kim, D. Sheinin, Z. Zhang, and V. Tallapragada

563
Comparison of Modelled and Ground-Based Derived Atmospheric Mixing Layer Height at Iqaluit, Nunavut
Gabrielle Gascon, EC, Edmonton, AB, Canada; and Z. Mariani, A. Dehghan, R. W. Crawford, P. Joe, W. R. Burrows, and S. Melo

565
Quantitative Evaluation of AutoNowCaster Convective Likelihood
Mamoudou Bocar Ba, NOAA/NWS/STI, Silver Spring, MD; and J. Crockett, L. Xin, and S. B. Smith

Handout (987.7 kB) Handout (96.6 kB)

567
Estimation and Correction of the GFS systematic errors
Kriti Bhargava, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and E. Kalnay, J. Carton, and F. Yang

Handout (5.6 MB)

569
An Agrometeorological Application of the Meteogram: “Agrometeogram”
Seung-Jae Lee, National Center for AgroMeteorology, Seoul, Korea, The Republic of; and Y. J. Kim, J. Song, and J. Kim

571
Applications of Radar-Derived Shear Products Using an Updated Linear Least-Squares Derivative Technique
Matthew C. Mahalik, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and B. R. Smith and H. Obermeier
Manuscript (3.5 MB)

Handout (5.5 MB)

572
Further improvement in the JMA/GSM SHIPS by using GSMaP
Udai Shimada, MRI, Tsukuba, Japan; and H. Owada, M. Yamaguchi, T. Iriguchi, M. Sawada, K. Aonashi, and M. DeMaria

575
Is There Value in Very High Resolution Weather Forecasts? Experiences from The Jefferson Project at Lake George
Campbell Watson, The Weather Co., Yorktown Heights, NY; and J. Cipriani, M. Tewari, A. Praino, L. Treinish, and M. Henderson

Handout (1.4 MB)

576
Impact of Horizontal Resolution on Next-Day CAM-Derived Probabilistic Severe Weather Forecasts
Eric D. Loken, CIMMS/University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and A. Clark, M. Xue, and F. Kong

579
Investigation of Atmospheric Rivers Impacting the Pigeon River Basin of the Southern Appalachian Mountains
Jessica Winton, NWS, Morristown, TN; and D. G. Hotz, D. Miller, L. Stewart, A. P. Barros, J. Forsythe, and A. P. Biazar

580
581
Improving Real-time Forecast Accuracy of Convective Morphology Through Use of an Ensemble
Bradley R. Carlberg, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus Jr. and K. J. Franz

584A
A Multiscale Analysis of Major Transition Season Northeast Snowstorms
Rebecca B. Steeves, SUNY, Albany, NY; and A. L. Lang and D. Keyser

586
Recent Advancements in Verification within the Developmental Testbed Center
Tara L. Jensen, NCAR/RAL, Boulder, CO; and J. H. Gotway, R. Bullock, T. L. Fowler, B. Brown, B. Strong, L. Nance, and Y. H. Kuo

588
The Environmental Modeling Center's Model Evaluation Group
Glenn H. White, EMC, College Park, MD; and G. Manikin, C. Guastini, and T. A. Dorian

589
Tropical Cyclone Outflow and Warm Core Structure as Revealed by HS3 and TCI Dropsondes
William A. Komaromi, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. D. Doyle

592
Weather and Climate Analysis Applications of a Satellite Visible and Infrared Imager-Based Overshooting Cloud Top Detection Product
Kristopher M. Bedka, LRC, Hampton, VA; and K. V. Khlopenkov, C. Wang, B. Scarino, M. L. Nordeen, C. R. Yost, and P. Minnis

594
Precipitation Properties in a Multi-Year Database of Convection-Allowing WRF Simulations
David Goines, University of North Dakota, Grand Forks, ND; and A. Kennedy

596
The Recurrence of Heavy Rainfalls in December 2015 and March 2016: Long Range Forecasting Implications
Joseph Renken, KOPN Radio Columbia, MO, Columbia, MO; and J. Herman, T. Bradshaw, and A. R. Lupo

599
Improving the GFS Boundary Layer Parameterization for Global Tropical Cyclone Predictions
Kun Gao, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and J. H. Chen, S. J. Lin, and L. M. Harris

600
Land Surface Upgrades in the Next NCEP NEMS Implementation
Helin Wei, NOAA/NCEP/EMC/IMSG, College Park, MD; and W. Zheng, J. Meng, and M. B. Ek

606
Wave Reflection Caused by Sponge Layer Configuration
Gian A. Villamil-Otero, North Carolina A & T State University, Greensboro, NC; and Y. L. Lin and R. D. Sharman

611
An Objective Approach for Correcting Model Bias in the GEOS-5 AGCM
Yehui Chang, NASA, Greenbelt, MD; and R. Koster, H. Wang, and M. Suarez

612
Object-based Verification for the HRRR Model Using Simulated and Observed GOES Infrared Brightness Temperatures
Sarah M. Griffin, CIMSS/University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and J. A. Otkin, C. M. Rozoff, J. Sieglaff, L. M. Cronce, C. Alexander, R. Bullock, J. H. Gotway, T. L. Jensen, and J. K. Wolff

613
NWP Cloud Forecasting Enables Free Space Optical Communications
Billy D. Felton, Northrop Grumann Corporation, McLean, VA; and R. J. Alliss

614
Evaluation of Regional Climate Downscaling in the Tropics
Ricardo Morais Fonseca, Luleå University, Kiruna, Sweden; and T. Zhang and T. Y. Koh

Handout (3.4 MB)

615
HRRR-AK: A High-Resolution, Rapidly Cycled Forecast Model for Alaska
Trevor Alcott, GSD, Boulder, CO; and C. Alexander, S. Benjamin, and S. S. Weygandt

617
Stringent Comparison and Evaluation of CMIP5 Model Sea Surface Temperatures
seoyeon Lee, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea, The Republic of; and K. Y. Kim

619
Application of High Spatial and Temporal Resolution Nowcasting in Korea
Limtak Yu, Pukyong National University, Busan, Korea, The Republic of; and D. I. Lee, Y. Hwang, Y. Kim, and C. H. You

Poster 622 has been moved. It is now Paper J6.6A

625
Simulating the Atmospheric Response to a Wildland Fire using a Cloud-Resolving Model
Marshall Stageberg, Michigan State University, Lansing, MI; and A. F. Srock and J. J. Charney

628
Assessing MCS Predictability with the NSSL Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System for ensembles
Kent H. Knopfmeier, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and D. M. Wheatley, P. S. Skinner, D. C. Dowell, T. Ladwig, C. R. Alexander, and G. J. Creager

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 24 January 2017

Recording files available
Joint Session 1
Strategies for Long-term Renewable Energy Resource Development
Location: 606 (Washington State Convention Center )
Hosts: (Joint between the Eighth Conference on Weather, Climate, Water and the New Energy Economy; and the 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction )
Cochairs: Julie K. Lundquist, University of Colorado; Jennifer F. Newman, National Renewable Energy Laboratory
4:00 PM
J1.1
Implementation Targets for the Paris Climate Agreement
Austin Hope, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and B. Bennett, W. Tribett, R. J. Salawitch, and T. P. Canty
4:15 PM
J1.2
Determining Atmospheric Conditions That Impact Solar Energy Potential in Nevada
G. Aaron Alexander, University of Nevada, Reno, NV; and H. A. Holmes, W. P. Arnott, J. C. Barnard, and A. Rollings
4:30 PM
J1.3
The National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB)
Manajit Sengupta, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO
5:15 PM
J1.6
Recording files available
Session 7A
Testbed, Proving Ground, and Research-to-Operations Activities
Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 3 (Washington State Convention Center )
Host: 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Philip N. Schumacher, NWS; Adam J. Clark, NSSL
4:00 PM
7A.1
Application and Evaluation of the Community Leveraged Unified Ensemble (CLUE) during the 2016 NOAA/HWT Spring Forecasting Experiment
Adam J. Clark, NSSL, Norman, OK; and I. L. Jirak, C. J. Melick, J. Correia Jr., S. J. Weiss, J. S. Kain, L. J. Wicker, A. R. Dean, B. T. Gallo, C. D. Karstens, K. W. Thomas, M. Xue, F. Kong, A. Kennedy, J. Markel, G. S. Romine, K. H. Knopfmeier, C. Alexander, K. R. Fossell, and J. Carley
4:15 PM
7A.2
A Gridded CrIS/ATMS Visualization for Operational Forecasting
Bradley T. Zavodsky, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and N. Smith, J. F. Dostalek, E. Stevens, K. Nelson, E. Weisz, E. Berndt, W. Line, C. D. Barnet, A. Gambacorta, T. Reale, and D. Hoese
4:45 PM
7A.4
Experimental Results and Joint Testbed Collaboration of the West Virginia Flood Event of June 23-24, 2016
Sarah Perfater, IMSG, College Park, MD; and S. M. Martinaitis, B. Albright, J. J. Gourley, M. J. Bodner, B. Cosgrove, M. Klein, Z. L. Flamig, T. C. Meyer, R. Clark III, and D. R. Novak
Recording files available
Session 7B
Model Development and Application
Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 4 (Washington State Convention Center )
Host: 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Gregory J. Hakim, University of Washington; Timothy E. Nobis, Northrop Grumman
4:00 PM
7B.1
4:15 PM
7B.2
4:30 PM
7B.3
Verification of the National Blend of Models
Tabitha L. Huntemann, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and D. W. Plumb Jr. and D. P. Ruth
4:45 PM
7B.4
Developmental Testbed Center: Engaging the Community in Operationally Relevant Research and Development
Louisa B. Nance, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and Y. H. Kuo, L. R. Bernardet, T. A. Dorian, C. Guastini, M. Harrold, I. Jankov, T. L. Jensen, G. Manikin, K. M. Newman, H. Shao, G. H. White, and J. K. Wolff
5:00 PM
7B.5
Coupling the Mesoscale to the Microscale Using Momentum Budget Components
Caroline Draxl, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO; and M. J. Churchfield and J. S. Rodrigo

Recording files available
Themed Joint Session 11
Data Assimilation, Research, Theory and Practice
Location: Conference Center: Skagit 5 (Washington State Convention Center )
Hosts: (Joint between the Third Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate; and the 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction )
Cochairs: Alexander O. Tardy, NOAA/NWS; Brian J. Etherton, ESRL/GSD
4:00 PM
TJ11.1
A Weather-Adaptive Hybrid Gain WRF-DART and 3DVAR Analysis and Forecast System with Automatic Storm Positioning and On-demand Capability
Jidong Gao, NSSL/NOAA, Norman, OK; and Y. Wang, D. M. Wheatley, K. H. Knopfmeier, T. A. Jones, G. J. Creager, L. J. Wicker, and J. S. Kain
4:30 PM
TJ11.3
5:15 PM
TJ11.6
Joint Effort for Data Assimilation Integration (JEDI) (Core Science Keynote)
Thomas Auligne, Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation, Boulder, CO

Wednesday, 25 January 2017

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 25 January 2017

Recording files available
Joint Session 2
The Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) Part I
Location: 606 (Washington State Convention Center )
Hosts: (Joint between the Eighth Conference on Weather, Climate, Water and the New Energy Economy; and the 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction )
Chair: John Zack, AWS Truepower LLC
8:30 AM
J2.1
Overview of the Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain (WFIP2)
Jim McCaa, Vaisala, Seattle, WA; and J. W. Cline, W. J. Shaw, M. Marquis, L. K. Berg, V. R. Kotamarthi, A. Clifton, S. Wharton, J. B. Olson, J. M. Wilczak, B. Kosovic, J. K. Lundquist, H. J. S. Fernando, and B. Ancell
8:45 AM
J2.2
Lidar Characterization of Boundary-Layer Winds and Validation of NWP Forecast Model Performance during the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project in Complex Terrain of the Columbia River Basin
Yelena Pichugina, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and A. W. Brewer, R. M. Banta, A. Choukulkar, T. A. Bonin, J. B. Olson, J. Kenyon, C. T. Clack, M. Marquis, L. Bianco, J. Sharp, W. M. Angevine, S. Baidar, S. P. Sandberg, A. Weickmann, and B. J. McCarty
9:00 AM
J2.3
Use of Scanning Doppler Lidars during WFIP-2 to Characterize Flow Phenomena and Evaluate NWP Model Performance
Robert M. Banta, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and A. Brewer, Y. Pichugina, A. Choukulkar, J. B. Olson, J. Kenyon, J. Sharp, M. T. Stoelinga, I. V. Djalalova, L. Bianco, J. Wilczak, L. K. Berg, Q. Yang, T. A. Bonin, S. Benjamin, E. P. Grimit, J. McCaa, S. P. Sandberg, S. Baidar, A. Weickmann, C. W. King, M. Marquis, W. J. Shaw, and J. W. Cline
9:30 AM
J2.5
HRRR Model Development for Complex Terrain Applications in Support of the Wind Forecast Improvement Project 2
Joseph B. Olson, NOAA-ESRL/GSD; CIRES, Boulder, CO; and J. Kenyon, J. M. Brown, W. M. Angevine, P. A. Jimenez, B. Kosovic, J. W. Bao, J. McCaa, M. T. Stoelinga, Q. Yang, L. K. Berg, C. Draxl, M. Marquis, and J. W. Cline
9:45 AM
J2.6
Improvements to HRRR Wind Forecasts from WFIP2
Jaymes Kenyon, NOAA/ESRL and CIRES, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and J. B. Olson, J. Brown, J. M. Wilczak, I. V. Djalalova, R. M. Banta, Y. Pichugina, M. T. Stoelinga, J. Sharp, E. P. Grimit, Q. Yang, L. K. Berg, K. Wade, M. Brewer, and R. Eckman
Recording files available
Session 8A
New Ensemble Techniques, Part I
Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 4 (Washington State Convention Center )
Host: 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Thomas M. Hamill, NOAA; Nusrat Yussouf, CIMMS/NSSL
8:30 AM
8A.1
Expanding Probabilistic Precipitation Services
David R. Novak, NOAA/NWS, College Park, MD
8:45 AM
8A.2
Twenty-five years of ensemble prediction at ECMWF
Roberto Buizza, ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom; and M. Alonso-Balmaseda, J. Bidlot, M. Bonavita, S. Keeley, S. Lang, M. Leutbecher, S. J. Lock, K. Mogensen, F. Molteni, F. Vitart, and N. Wedi
9:00 AM
8A.3
Warn-on-Detection to Warn-on-Forecast by 2020?
Pamela L. Heinselman, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and L. J. Wicker and J. S. Kain
9:15 AM
8A.4
Development and Evaluation of Probabilistic Severe Weather Guidance with the NCAR Convection-Allowing Ensemble
Ryan A. Sobash, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. S. Romine, C. S. Schwartz, and K. R. Fossell
9:30 AM
8A.5
Advancing Probabilistic Forecasts of Locally Extreme Precipitation through Machine Learning
Gregory R. Herman, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and R. S. Schumacher
9:45 AM
8A.6
An Object-Based Analog Technique to Reduce Spatial Dimensionality in Forecast Post-Processing
Maria E. Frediani, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT; and T. M. Hopson, J. P. Hacker, E. N. Anagnostou, and L. D. Monache
Recording files available
Session 8B
Ronald W. Przybylinski Memorial Session on Elevated Convection
Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 3 (Washington State Convention Center )
Host: 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Neil I. Fox, Univ. of Missouri; James E. Sieveking Jr., NWS
9:00 AM
8B.3
9:15 AM
8B.4
Simulated Nocturnal Convective Systems from the PECANField Experiment
Matthew D. Parker, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and R. S. Schumacher, C. L. Ziegler, M. I. Biggerstaff, M. C. Coniglio, E. R. Mansell, and T. J. Schuur

10:00 AM-10:15 AM: Wednesday, 25 January 2017


Session
Weather Analysis and Forecasting Awards Brainstorming Session
Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 4 (Washington State Convention Center )
Host: 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 25 January 2017


Coffee Break
Location: 4AB (Washington State Convention Center )

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 25 January 2017

Recording files available
Joint Session 3
The Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) Part 2
Location: 606 (Washington State Convention Center )
Hosts: (Joint between the Eighth Conference on Weather, Climate, Water and the New Energy Economy; and the 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction )
Chair: J. Craig Collier, DNV GL
10:45 AM
J3.2
Seasonal Dependence of RAP and HRRR NWP Forecast Errors During the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) Field Campaign
James Wilczak, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and I. V. Djalalova, L. Bianco, J. B. Olson, J. Kenyon, R. Banta, L. K. Berg, J. Bickford, T. A. Bonin, A. Brewer, M. Brewer, S. Bustos-Ortola, A. Choukulkar, C. T. Clack, K. L. Clawson, A. Clifton, J. W. Cline, D. Cook, R. Coulter, R. Eckman, H. J. S. Fernando, K. Friedrich, E. P. Grimit, L. S. Leo, J. K. Lundquist, T. J. Martin, M. Marquis, J. McCaa, K. McCaffrey, P. Muradyan, M. Pekour, Y. Pichugina, W. J. Shaw, M. T. Stoelinga, and S. Wharton
11:00 AM
J3.3
Measuring the Skill of Numerical Weather Prediction Models at Forecasting Wind Ramp Events during WFIP
Laura Bianco, CIRES, Boulder, CO; and I. V. Djalalova, E. Knopleva-Akish, J. B. Olson, and J. M. Wilczak
11:15 AM
J3.4
WFIP2 Experiment: Impact of Different Spatial Model Resolutions on Forecasting 80m Wind Speed Ramp Events
Irina V. Djalalova, CIRES, Boulder, CO; and L. Bianco, J. Wilczak, J. B. Olson, J. Kenyon, M. T. Stoelinga, E. P. Grimit, A. Clifton, L. Berg, M. Pekour, W. J. Shaw, K. L. Clawson, R. M. Eckman, M. C. Brewer, H. J. S. Fernando, T. J. Martin, P. Muradyan, R. L. Coulter, and D. Cook
11:30 AM
J3.5
A Three Dimensional PBL Parameterization to Improve Wind Simulations over Complex Terrrain
Pedro A. Jimenez, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. Kosovic, S. E. Haupt, J. B. Olson, J. W. Bao, E. Grell, and J. Kenyon
Recording files available
Session 9A
New Ensemble Techniques, Part II
Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 4 (Washington State Convention Center )
Host: 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Josh Hacker, NCAR; Burkely Gallo, Univ. of Oklahoma/NSSL
11:30 AM
9A.5
Novel Atmospheric Ensemble Modeling Techniques Applied to Long-Range Transport
Robert L. Buckley, Savannah River National Laboratory, Aiken, SC; and S. R. Chiswell, R. J. Kurzeja, G. M. Maze, B. J. Viner, and D. W. Werth

11:45 AM
9A.6
Recording files available
Session 9B
Mesoscale Meteorology and Severe Local Storms, Part I
Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 3 (Washington State Convention Center )
Host: 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Shawn M. Milrad, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University; Steven J. Weiss, NOAA/NCEP/SPC
10:30 AM
9B.1
Observations of Extreme Short-Term Precipitation Associated with Supercells and Mesovortices
Erik R. Nielsen, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and R. S. Schumacher
11:30 AM
9B.5A
A Case of Extreme Rainfall over the Eastern Caribbean in December 2013
Arlene Laing, CIRA and NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and B. Baker, S. Willie, and D. Farrell

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 25 January 2017


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Wednesday, 25 January 2017

Recording files available
Lecture 2
Horton Lecture
Location: 602 (Washington State Convention Center )
Hosts: (Joint between the 20th Conference of Atmospheric Science Librarians International; the Second Symposium on Multi-scale Atmospheric Predictability; the Observation Symposium: Progress, Problems, and Prospects; the 33rd Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 29th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; the 26th Symposium on Education; the 21st Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface; the 19th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 18th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the 15th Conference on Artificial and Computational Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences; the 15th Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 14th Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography; the 14th Conference on Space Weather; the 13th Annual Symposium on New Generation Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the Major Weather Impacts of 2016; the 13th Symposium of the Urban Environment; the 12th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the Ninth Symposium on Aerosol–Cloud–Climate Interactions; the Eighth Conference on Weather, Climate, Water and the New Energy Economy; the Eighth Conference on Environment and Health; the Eighth Symposium on Lidar Atmospheric Applications; the Eighth Conference on the Meteorological Application of Lightning Data; the Seventh Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the 31st Conference on Hydrology; the Fifth Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; the Fifth Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation: Enhancing Our Nation’s Readiness, Responsiveness, and Resilience to High Impact Weather Events; the Fifth AMS Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the Fifth Symposium on Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Processes, Prediction and Impact; the Third Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate; the Special Symposium on Greening the Built Environment; and the Events )
Organizer: John B. Eylander, US Army Corps of Engineers
Lecturer: Hoshin V. Gupta, University of Arizona
Cochairs: Michael Ek, NOAA; David J. Gochis, NCAR; John N. McHenry, Baron Advanced Meteorological Systems, LLC
1:30 PM
L2.1
Recording files available
Joint Session 4
Forecasting for Wind Energy: General Topics
Location: 606 (Washington State Convention Center )
Hosts: (Joint between the Eighth Conference on Weather, Climate, Water and the New Energy Economy; and the 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction )
Chair: Caroline Draxl, National Renewable Energy Laboratory
2:15 PM
J4.4
A Hybrid Model for Wind-Energy Forecasting
Seyed Hossein Hezaveh, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and M. Momen and E. Bou-Zeid
Recording files available
Session 10A
MPAS
Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 4 (Washington State Convention Center )
Host: 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: James Doyle, NRL; Dale R. Durran, University of Washington
1:30 PM
10A.1
Data Assimilation for MPAS
Chris Snyder, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and S. Ha, H. C. Lin, Z. Liu, C. Schwartz, J. Whitaker, and H. Winterbottom
2:00 PM
10A.3
Idealized Tropical Cyclone Test Cases for Global Models
William C. Skamarock, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and S. H. Park, G. H. Bryan, C. A. Davis, and J. Klemp
2:15 PM
10A.4
Arctic Extended-Range Predictions with MPAS and MPAS-CESM
Nicholas Szapiro, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and S. Cavallo, W. Skamarock, and S. H. Park
Recording files available
Session 10B
Mesoscale Meteorology and Severe Local Storms, Part II
Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 3 (Washington State Convention Center )
Host: 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Gary M. Lackmann, North Carolina State University; James R. McCormick, Software Engineering Services
1:45 PM
10B.2
2:00 PM
10B.3

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Wednesday, 25 January 2017


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: 4E (Washington State Convention Center )

Poster Session 3
WAF/NWP Posters: Numerical Weather Prediction
Location: 4E (Washington State Convention Center )
Host: 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Rebecca Adams-Selin, AER; Alexander O. Tardy, NOAA/NWS
1161
Assimilation of Null-echo from Radar Observations for Short-term Precipitation Forecasting
Ki-Hong Min, Kyungpook National University, Daegu, South Korea; and Y. Kim, K. Park, and G. Lee

1162
Improved GSI Forward Model for Surface Observations on Coastlines
Ming Hu, CIRES, boulder, CO; and M. Liu, S. Weygandt, S. G. Benjamin, and C. Alexander

1164
Assimilation of GPM GMI rainrate product with community GSI and case study result
Xuanli Li, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and J. Srikishen, B. T. Zavodsky, and J. R. Mecikalski

1165
The Influence of a Digit Filer Initialization on HWRF Hurricane Forecasting
Shixuan Zhang, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and Z. Pu

Poster 1166 will now be presented as J7.1A

1167
The Potential of Smartphone Pressure Observations Evaluated in a Convective Case Study
Luke E. Madaus, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. F. Mass

1168
Assessment of Ensemble Forecast Sensitivity to Observation (EFSO) Quantities for Satellite Radiances Assimilated in the 4DEnVar GFS
David Groff, IMSG/NOAA/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and K. Ide, R. Mahajan, and Y. Zhu

Handout (2.5 MB)

1174
1179
Statistical Method for Estimating Wind Arrival Times from Tropical Cyclones
Jeri Lynn Schwietert, CyberData Technologies, Inc., Herndon, VA; and M. DeMaria, M. Onderlinde, C. Mattocks, R. Berg, and A. Schumacher

1180
NAEFS Next Generation Product Upgrade and Plan
Bo Cui, IMSG at EMC/NCEP, College Park, MD; and Y. Zhu, H. Guan, and Y. Luo

1181
Numerical Simulations of the Florida Sea Breeze and Its Associated Convection with the WRF Model
Nessa E Hock, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and Z. Pu

Handout (8.3 MB)

1182
Medium-Range Ensemble Forecast Tools at the Weather Prediction Center
William S. Lamberson, IMSG, College Park, MD

1184
Comparison of Forecast Ensemble Spread to a Weather Feature Based Confidence Index
William Capehart, South Dakota School of Mines and Technology, Rapid City, SD; and M. Kern and A. Penning

Handout (4.5 MB)

1186
Evaluations of WRF New Features with an Operational Army Ensemble Prediction System
Linlin Pan, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and Y. Liu, G. Roux, Y. Wu, J. Knievel, L. Delle Monache, J. Pace, and S. Halvorson

1187
Evaluation of Real-Time Machine Learning Hail Forecasts from the NCAR Convection-Allowing Ensemble
David John Gagne II, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and A. McGovern, R. A. Sobash, S. E. Haupt, and J. K. Williams

Handout (2.7 MB)

1188
NCEP GEFS V11 Reforecast and its Application
hong guan, SRG Inc. at NOAA/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and Y. Zhu

1190
Deriving Precipitation Type Probabilities in the National Blend of Models
Dan A. Baumgardt, NWS, La Crosse, WI; and A. Just and P. E. Shafer

Handout (2.8 MB)

1191
Evaluation of Several Spatial Filtering Methods for Probabilistic CPM Ensemble Forecasts
Benjamin T. Blake, IMSG/NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and J. R. Carley, T. Alcott, I. Jankov, M. Pyle, and A. J. Clark

1194
Improvement of Wind Speed Prediction Using Statistical and Analog Techniques for NE U.S
Jaemo Yang, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT; and M. Astitha, L. D. Monache, and S. Alessandrini

1196
Improving 2-m Temperature Spread in the Next NCEP Global Ensemble
Walter Kolczynski Jr., NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC via IMSG, College Park, MD; and M. Gehne, G. Bates, J. Meng, T. M. Hamill, Y. Zhu, and D. Hou

1197
Ensemble Forecasts and Regional EnKF Data Assimilation for Prediction of Lake-Effect Snow
Seth Saslo, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and S. J. Greybush

1199
Coupling NWP Physics to a Three-Dimensional Spectral Element MODEL
Alex Reinecke, NRL, Monterey, CA; and K. Viner, D. Durran, S. Gabersek, M. Martini, J. Doyle, D. D. Flagg, D. R. Ryglicki, and F. X. Giraldo

1200
Testing of the New WRF-ARW Hybrid Vertical Coordinate in RAP and HRRR
J. M. Brown, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and J. B. Olson, T. G. Smirnova, T. Alcott, S. G. Benjamin, D. Gill, and J. B. Klemp

1202
RAP/HRRR Model Physics Development
Joseph B. Olson, NOAA-ESRL/GSD; CIRES, Boulder, CO; and J. Kenyon, J. M. Brown, C. Alexander, T. Smirnova, G. Grell, I. Jankov, S. Benjamin, G. Thompson, W. M. Angevine, and S. Weygandt

1203
Upgrades of GRAPES_TYM in 2016 and Its Performance
Suhong Ma, NWPD/NMC, Beijing, China

1204
The Nested Domains of Version 4 of the NAM Forecast System
Jacob R. Carley, IMSG/NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and E. Rogers, B. S. Ferrier, E. Aligo, Z. Janjic, S. Liu, Y. Lin, D. F. Parrish, M. Pyle, W. S. Wu, Y. Wu, and G. J. DiMego

Handout (2.3 MB)

1205
NMMB Model Changes as Part of the NAMv4 Upgrade
Brad S. Ferrier, IMSG/NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, MD; and Z. Janjic, E. Aligo, D. Jovic, E. Rogers, J. R. Carley, M. Pyle, and G. J. DiMego

Handout (915.6 kB)

1208
Addressing Uncertainties in Cloud Top Height Verification with Synthetic Brightness Temperatures
Jason E. Nachamkin, NRL, Monterey, CA; and Y. Jin, L. D. Grasso, and K. Richardson

1209
Evaluating NOAA Climate Forecasting System Subseasonal Forecasts
Nicholas Weber, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. F. Mass

Handout (1.3 MB)

1210
Using Landmarks to Verify Complex Meteorological Phenomena
Jason E. Nachamkin, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Grasso and Y. Jin

Poster 1213 will now be presented as 15B.4A

1215
Numerical Analysis of Fog Predictability over National Center for Intensive Observation of Severe Weather (NCIO)
WonHeung Kim, Yonsei University, Seoul, South Korea; and S. S. Yum and C. K. Kim

1216
Evolution of HRRR Warm Season Convective Precipitation Forecasts Over Three Years of Model Development
Janice L. Bytheway, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and C. D. Kummerow

1217
Sensitivity of a TPV to a Downstream Forecast Bust
Christopher P. Riedel, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and S. Cavallo

1220
Evaluation of Real-Time WRF Forecasts Over the Mid-Atlantic
Troy J Arcomano, University Of Maryland, Oakhurst, NJ; and C. R. Martin, D. T. Kleist, G. M. Mazzuca, and T. C. Sluka

1221
An Impact Study of NCEP GEFS TC Track Forecast
Yuejian Zhu, NCEP, College Park, MD; and X. Zhou, B. Fu, and J. Peng

1222
Are the Discrimination Ability and Maximum Economic Value of a Forecast System Affected by Forecast Biases?
Hui-Ling Chang, Central Weather Bureau, Taipei, Taiwan; and S. C. Yang

Handout (715.2 kB)

1223
Impact of initial SST fields on Hurricane Edouard (2014) forecasts with the HWRF model
Jili Dong, IMSG at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and L. Zhu, H. S. Kim, P. J. Fitzpatrick, and A. Mehra

1225
Atmospheric Composition Studies with the GEOS Models
Steven Pawson, GMAO, Greenbelt, MD; and J. E. Nielsen, A. S. Darmenov, C. A. Keller, A. Molod, L. Ott, W. M. Putman, A. Da Silva, K. Wargan, and B. Weir

1226
Evaluation of Global Numerical Weather Prediction Model Extended-Range Forecasts
Song Yang, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. Reynolds, J. Ridout, and M. Flatau

1228
NOAA MAPP Program Research and Transition Initiatives to Advance Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction
Heather M. Archambault, NOAA, Silver Spring, MD; and D. Barrie and A. Mariotti

1229
Verification and validation of a Navy ESPC hindcast with loosely coupled data assimilation
E. Joseph Metzger, NRL, Stennis Space Center, MS; and N. P. Barton, O. M. Smedstad, B. Ruston, A. Wallcraft, T. R. Whitcomb, J. Ridout, D. S. Franklin, L. Zamudio, P. Posey, C. Reynolds, and M. W. Phelps

1230
Understanding Subseasonal Extremes: The Missouri Floods of December 2015
Shih-Yu (Simon) Wang, Utah State University, Logan, UT; and B. O. Fosu

1231
Subseasonal Forecasting Skill with Advanced Coupled Models including the 30km FIM-HYCOM Model
Stan Benjamin, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and S. Sun, B. Green, R. Bleck, G. A. Grell, and H. Li

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 25 January 2017

Recording files available
Session 11A
The National Earth System Prediction Capability Agenda for Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction (S2S)
Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 4 (Washington State Convention Center )
Host: 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Jessie C. Carman, OAR; David McCarren, Navy/CNMOC
4:00 PM
11A.1
NOAA Unified Global Coupled Modeling
Hendrik Tolman, NOAA, Silver Spring, MD; and F. Toepfer, T. Schneider, J. C. Carman, and V. Tallapragada
4:30 PM
11A.3
Navy global coupled numerical system development and field research contributing to the U.S. National Earth System Prediction Capability (ESPC) Partnership
Daniel P. Eleuterio, ONR, Arlington, VA; and C. A. Reynolds, N. P. Barton, T. R. Whitcomb, G. Jacobs, J. G. Richman, and J. Metzger
4:45 PM
11A.4
New Metrics for the Ocean Performance of ESPC Extended Range Reforecasts
James G. Richman, Florida State University, Corvallis, OR; and P. Hogan, J. F. Shriver, and L. Zamudio
5:15 PM
Discussion

5:30 PM
National ESPC - Dave McCarren

Recording files available
Session 11B
Weather Phenomena from Mesoscale to Synoptic Scale
Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 3 (Washington State Convention Center )
Host: 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Jeff S. Waldstreicher, NOAA/NWS; Kristopher White, National Weather Service
4:00 PM
11B.1
Detection of Mesoscale Pressure Perturbations with Five Minute Gridded Analyses
Alexander A. Jacques, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and J. D. Horel and E. T. Crosman
4:45 PM
11B.4
The Influence of Atmospheric Rivers and Associated Latent Heat Release on Downstream Waviness
Jessica R. Taheri, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and J. E. Martin

5:30 PM-6:30 PM: Wednesday, 25 January 2017

Recording files available
Awards Banquet Reception
Location: 4AB (Washington State Convention Center )
5:30 PM
Awards Banquet Reception

7:00 PM-10:00 PM: Wednesday, 25 January 2017

Recording files available
97th AMS Awards Banquet
Location: Ballroom 6ABCE (Washington State Convention Center )
7:00 PM
97th AMS Awards Banquet

Thursday, 26 January 2017

8:30 AM-9:30 AM: Thursday, 26 January 2017

Recording files available
Joint Session 5
Weather and Climate Modeling in the Polar Regions, Including Sea Ice Prediction Part I
Location: Conference Center: Skagit 3 (Washington State Convention Center )
Hosts: (Joint between the 14th Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography; and the 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction )
Chair: David Schneider, NCAR
8:45 AM
J5.2
Modelling Large Ocean to Atmosphere Heat Flux events in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica
Richard Wilson Jones, Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Science (University of East Anglia), Norwich, United Kingdom; and I. Renfrew and A. Orr
9:00 AM
J5.3
A Dynamical Explanation of the Topographically Bound Easterly Low-Level Jet Surrounding Antarctica
Scott R. Fulton, Clarkson University, Potsdam, NY; and W. H. Schubert, Z. Chen, and P. E. Ciesielski
Recording files available
Session 12A
Tropical Cyclone Modeling and Prediction
Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 4 (Washington State Convention Center )
Host: 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Sharan Majumdar, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS; Michael J. Brennan, NHC
8:30 AM
12A.1
Comparison of TC Track Forecast Based on 3D EnVar and 4D EnVar Data Assimilation
Bing Fu, IMSG at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and Y. Zhu, J. Peng, X. Zhou, and C. Melhauser
8:45 AM
12A.2
9:00 AM
12A.3
HNMMB: Development of a new Hurricane model for NWS/NCEP operations
Avichal Mehra, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and V. Tallapragada, W. Wang, L. Zhu, Z. Zhang, K. Wu, T. Black, R. Vasic, H. S. Kim, and D. Sheinin
9:15 AM
12A.4
Recording files available
Session 12B
Results from Recent Field Campaigns I: PECAN
Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 3 (Washington State Convention Center )
Host: 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: William A. Gallus Jr., Iowa State University; Rebecca Adams-Selin, AER
8:30 AM
12B.1
Evolution of Thermodynamic Vertical Profiles from Pre- and Post-Convective Environments of Mesoscale Convective Systems Observed During PECAN
Stacey M. Hitchcock, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and R. S. Schumacher, C. L. Ziegler, M. C. Coniglio, and M. D. Parker
9:15 AM
12B.4
The Impact of Low-Level Moisture Errors on Model Forecasts of an MCS Observed during PECAN
John M. Peters, NPS, Pacific Grove, CA; and E. R. Nielsen, M. D. Parker, S. M. Hitchcock, R. S. Schumacher, M. C. Coniglio, and C. L. Ziegler

9:30 AM-10:30 AM: Thursday, 26 January 2017


Exhibit Hall Breakfast
Location: 4AB (Washington State Convention Center )

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 26 January 2017

Recording files available
Joint Session 6
New and Unique Observational Datasets
Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 4 (Washington State Convention Center )
Hosts: (Joint between the 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 21st Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface )
Cochairs: Kathryn Newman, NCAR; Adam L. Houston, University of Nebraska
10:45 AM
J6.2
11:00 AM
J6.3
Surface Pressure Observations from Smartphones: Current Status and Future Promise
Conor McNicholas, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. F. Mass
11:30 AM
J6.5
Impact of High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature on Simulated Sea Breezes
Kelly Lombardo, University of Connecticut, Groton, CT; and E. Sinsky, J. Edson, and M. Whitney
Recording files available
Joint Session 8
Weather and Climate Modeling in the Polar Regions, including Sea Ice Prediction Part II
Location: Conference Center: Skagit 3 (Washington State Convention Center )
Hosts: (Joint between the 14th Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography; and the 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction )
Chair: David B. Reusch, New Mexico Tech
Paper J8.1 has moved. It is now Poster 1312A

10:30 AM
J8.1A
Relationship Between Snow Cover and Temperature Trends in Observational and Earth-System Model Ensembles
Paul J. Kushner, Univ. of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; and L. Mudryk, C. Derksen, R. Brown, and C. Thackeray
10:45 AM
J8.2
Sea Ice Evolution in the Pacific Arctic by Selected CMIP5 Models: the Present and the Future
Muyin Wang, University of Washington, Seattle,, WA; and Q. Yang and J. E. Overland

11:00 AM
J8.3
Prediction of Seasonal Arctic Sea Ice Extent Using the North American Multimodel Ensemble
Kirstin J. Harnos, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC/Innovim, College Park, MD; and M. L'Heureux and Q. Zhang
11:15 AM
J8.4
15-Day Hindcast Experiments with the Uncouped CICE Ice Model
Shan Sun, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and A. Solomon, R. Grumbine, and J. Intrieri
11:30 AM
J8.5
Sea Ice in the NCEP Climate Forecast System
Xingren Wu, EMC, College Park, MD; and S. Saha, R. Grumbine, and D. Bailey
11:45 AM
J8.6
Recording files available
Session 13
Results from Recent Field Campaigns II: VORTEX-SE, OWLeS, and Others
Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 3 (Washington State Convention Center )
Host: 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Patrick S. Market, University of Missouri; Scott M. Steiger, SUNY
10:30 AM
13.1
The Enhancement of Lake-Effect Precipitation over the Tug Hill Plateau during the Ontario Winter Lake-effect Systems (OWLeS) Field Program
W. James Steenburgh, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and L. Campbell, P. G. Veals, J. R. Minder, T. W. Letcher, B. Geerts, D. Welsh, and P. T. Bergmaier
10:45 AM
13.2
Understanding Heavy Lake-Effect Snow: On Secondary Circulations within LLAP Bands Over Lake Ontario
Philip T. Bergmaier, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY; and B. Geerts, W. J. Steenburgh, and L. Campbell
11:45 AM
13.6
Performance of the NSSL Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System for Ensembles (NEWS-e) during VORTEX-Southeast
Patrick S. Skinner, CIMMS/University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. M. Wheatley, K. H. Knopfmeier, T. A. Jones, D. C. Dowell, T. T. Ladwig, C. R. Alexander, R. A. Sobash, G. J. Creager, C. K. Potvin, and L. J. Wicker

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 26 January 2017


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 26 January 2017

Recording files available
Joint Session 7
Advances in Data Assimilation and Observational Sensitivity with High Performance Computing
Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 4 (Washington State Convention Center )
Hosts: (Joint between the 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the Third Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate )
Cochairs: Glen Romine, NCAR; Fuqing Zhang, Pennsylvania State University
J7.1 will now present as J7.6A

1:30 PM
J7.1A
Perturbation Methods for Ensemble Data Assimilation
Kazuo Saito, MRI/JAMSTEC, Tsukuba, Japan; and M. Kunii, L. Duc, and T. Kurihana
2:00 PM
J7.3
A Bin-Classifier Model to Diagnose and Forecast Deep Convection
Christina Bonfanti, NOAA/ESRL and CIRES, Boulder, CO; and A. E. MacDonald
2:15 PM
J7.4
Short-term (0-6 h) Probabilistic Extreme Rainfall Forecasts Using a Prototype Warn-on-Forecast System
Nusrat Yussouf, CIMMS/NSSL, Norman, OK; and J. S. Kain, K. H. Knopfmeier, J. Zhang, and Y. Wang
2:30 PM
J7.5
Examination of mesoscale feedbacks on convective scale predictability during MPEX
Logan C. Dawson, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and R. J. Trapp, G. S. Romine, and M. E. Baldwin
3:00 PM
Development and Application of Microphysics Scheme-Consistent Cloud Opticl Properties for CRTM in Microwave - Scott Sieron
Recording files available
Joint Session 9
Weather and Climate Modeling in the Polar Regions, including Sea Ice Prediction Part III
Location: Conference Center: Skagit 3 (Washington State Convention Center )
Hosts: (Joint between the 14th Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography; and the 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction )
Chair: Mark W. Seefeldt, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado
1:30 PM
J9.1
Bringing Together the Observational and Modeling Communities
David A. Bailey, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. M. Holland, J. Kay, and N. Jeffery
2:00 PM
J9.3A
2:15 PM
J9.4
Regional Arctic Sea-Ice Prediction: Potential Versus Operational Seasonal Forecast Skill
Mitch Bushuk, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and R. Msadek, M. Winton, G. A. Vecchi, R. Gudgel, A. Rosati, and X. Yang
2:30 PM
J9.5
2:45 PM
J9.6
Model Evaluation in Central Greenland Using a Comprehensive Set of Atmospheric and Surface Measurements
Nathaniel Miller, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and M. Shupe, J. Lenaerts, J. Kay, and R. Bennartz
Recording files available
Session 14
Results from Recent Field Campaigns III: OLYMPEX
Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 3 (Washington State Convention Center )
Host: 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Angela K. Rowe, Univ. of Washington; Deanna A. Hence, University of Illinois; Jennifer DeHart, University of Washington
1:30 PM
14.1
1:45 PM
14.2
2:00 PM
14.3
Characterization and Classification of Precipitation Using the NASA D3R Observations during GPM OLYMPEx Field Campaign
V. Chandrasekar, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and H. Chen, R. M. Beauchamp, S. Joshil, and M. Vaccarono

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 26 January 2017


Coffee Break
Location: Skybridge (Washington State Convention Center )

3:30 PM-5:00 PM: Thursday, 26 January 2017

Recording files available
Joint Session 10
Weather and Climate Modeling in the Polar Regions, including Sea Ice Prediction Part IV
Location: Conference Center: Skagit 3 (Washington State Convention Center )
Hosts: (Joint between the 14th Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography; and the 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction )
Chair: Ryan L. Fogt, Ohio University
3:30 PM
J10.1
3:45 PM
J10.2
Impact of Model Physics on Seasonal Forecasts of Surface Air Temperature in the Arctic
Qiong Yang, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and M. Wang, J. E. Overland, W. Wang, and T. Collow
4:00 PM
J10.3
4:30 PM
J10.5
Coupled Single-Column Model Framework for Polar Processes
Kerstin Hartung, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden; and G. Svensson and H. Struthers
Recording files available
Session 15A
Tropical Cyclone Forecasting
Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 3 (Washington State Convention Center )
Host: 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Alicia M. Bentley, SUNY; Mark Leidner, AER
3:45 PM
15A.2
4:00 PM
15A.3
Evaluation of Ensemble Forecasts for Tropical Cyclogenesis from African Easterly Waves
Alan Brammer, SUNY, Albany,, NY; and C. D. Thorncroft and J. P. Dunion
Recording files available
Session 15B
Predictability and Data Assimilation
Location: Conference Center: Tahoma 4 (Washington State Convention Center )
Host: 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Brian C. Ancell, Texas Tech University; John M. Peters, NPS
4:15 PM
15B.4A
An Examination of HRRR and HRRRX Performance and Utility For Two Similar and Challenging Colorado Snowstorms
Ed Szoke, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRA, Boulder, CO; and S. Benjamin, C. R. Alexander, J. M. Brown, D. Barjenbruch, R. Kleyla, and B. Meier
4:45 PM
15B.6