High-Resolution Hurricane Reanalysis and Reforecasts Using State-of-the-art Operational HWRF Model

HWRF modeling system has undergone significant advances over the past decade, and evolved as a unique very high-resolution atmosphere-ocean-wave coupled system providing real-time forecast guidance for all global tropical cyclones.  Hurricane track and intensity forecasts from HWRF model are shown to outperform all other operational forecast guidance available to the forecasters.  These advancements in current forecast capabilities have resulted in a demand for generating more accurate hurricane reanalysis and reforecast datasets that have a wide range of applications. This work aims at conducting experiments that include reruns of historically significant tropical cyclones using the current operational HWRF model.  These experiments would  demonstrate existing capabilities with tropical cyclone forecast models/guidance and/or remaining gaps.  Beyond scientific merit, such experiments also provide examples of valuable information on hurricane analysis for land-falling storms which is needed for downstream marine/coastal applications under Coastal Act. 

Preliminary efforts show that the atmosphere-ocean coupled HWRF model operating at 2 km resolution near the hurricane core provide track and intensity forecasts that were much closer to observations for Hurricane IKE (2008), Hurricane Isabel (2003) and Hurricane Andrew (1992), with forecast skill exceeding operational NHC forecasts and other operational model guidance available at those times.  Results from deterministic and ensemble configurations of the current operational HWRF model for these historical storms highlight advancements made in hurricane forecasting technology between then and now.