Poster Session 3 WAF/NWP Posters: Numerical Weather Prediction

Wednesday, 25 January 2017: 2:30 PM-4:00 PM
4E (Washington State Convention Center )
Host: 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs:
Rebecca Adams-Selin, AER, Offutt AFB, NE and Alexander O. Tardy, NOAA/NWS, Weather Forecast Office, San Diego, CA

Posters on the Topics of: Global and Mesoscale Models, Data Assimilation, Ensemble Techniques, New and Unique Observational Datasets, Season to Subseasonal Prediction, and Other NWP Contributions

Papers:
1161
Assimilation of Null-echo from Radar Observations for Short-term Precipitation Forecasting
Ki-Hong Min, Kyungpook National Univ., Daegu, Korea, Republic of (South); and Y. Kim, K. Park, and G. Lee

1162
Improved GSI Forward Model for Surface Observations on Coastlines
Ming Hu, CIRES, boulder, CO; and M. Liu, S. Weygandt, S. G. Benjamin, and C. Alexander

1163
An ice-phase forward model for radar data assimilation with WRFVAR and preliminary result for polarimetric radar data assimilation
Xuanli Li, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and J. R. Mecikalski

1164
Assimilation of GPM GMI rainrate product with community GSI and case study result
Xuanli Li, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and J. Srikishen, B. T. Zavodsky, and J. R. Mecikalski

1165
The Influence of a Digit Filer Initialization on HWRF Hurricane Forecasting
Shixuan Zhang, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and Z. Pu

Poster 1166 will now be presented as J7.1A

1167
The Potential of Smartphone Pressure Observations Evaluated in a Convective Case Study
Luke E. Madaus, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. F. Mass

1168
Assessment of Ensemble Forecast Sensitivity to Observation (EFSO) Quantities for Satellite Radiances Assimilated in the 4DEnVar GFS
David Groff, IMSG/NOAA/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and K. Ide, R. Mahajan, and Y. Zhu

Handout (2.5 MB)

1169
A Soft-computing Ensemble Approach (SEA) to forecast Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall
M. M. Ali, Skymet Weather Services, Noida, India; and N. Kurian, T. Venugopal, and J. Singh
Manuscript (181.7 kB)

1170
Developing a Quantitative Measure of Convective Forcing to Evaluate High Resolution Rapid Refresh Ensemble (HRRRE) Variance
Amber J. Liggett, Millersville Univ., Beaver, PA; and T. T. Ladwig, D. C. Dowell, and C. R. Alexander

1171
High-Resolution Hurricane Reanalysis and Reforecasts Using State-of-the-art Operational HWRF Model
Zaizhong Ma, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and A. Mehra and V. Tallapragada

1172
Measuring the Quality of Updating High Resolution Time-Lagged Ensemble Probability Forecasts Using Spatial Verification Techniques
Tressa L. Fowler, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and T. Jensen, R. Bullock, and J. E. Halley Gotway
Manuscript (702.9 kB)

1173
Exploring Forecast Sensitivity through an Ensemble of Varying Land Surface Parameterizations, Soil Moisture, and Vegetation Characteristics
Andrew L. Molthan, NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, AL; and J. L. Case, J. Srikishen, and B. T. Zavodsky

1174
Assimilating Real-Time High-Resolution BUFR Radiosonde Rata in NAVGEM: Current Results and Future Prospects
Patricia M. Pauley, NRL, Monterey, CA; and D. Tyndall, J. M. Reeves, and R. Pauley

Handout (1.5 MB)

1175
Insights into Predicting Tornado Development Using NEWS-e Vorticity Forecasts
Jessica M. McDonald, NOAA/SPC/Hollings, Norman, OK; and J. Correia Jr.

1176
Overview of the NCAR High-Resolution (3-km) Ensemble and Validation of Its Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts Over Complex Terrain in the Western US
Thomas Michael Gowan, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and W. J. Steenburgh

Handout (5.2 MB)

1177
Validation and Intercomparison of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts from the NCAR High-Resolution (3-km) Ensemble and NCEP and ESRL Operational Models Over the Western US
Thomas Michael Gowan, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and W. J. Steenburgh

Handout (6.1 MB)

1178
Ensemble Forecasts and Verification of the May 2015 Multi-Hazard Severe Weather Event in Oklahoma
Austin A Coleman, NWC REU Program, Norman, OK; and N. Yussouf

1179
Statistical Method for Estimating Wind Arrival Times from Tropical Cyclones
Jeri Lynn Schwietert, CyberData Technologies, Inc., Herndon, VA; and M. DeMaria, M. Onderlinde, C. Mattocks, R. Berg, and A. Schumacher

1180
NAEFS Next Generation Product Upgrade and Plan
Bo Cui, IMSG at EMC/NCEP, College Park, MD; and Y. Zhu, H. Guan, and Y. Luo

1181
Numerical Simulations of the Florida Sea Breeze and Its Associated Convection with the WRF Model
Nessa E Hock, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and Z. Pu

Handout (8.3 MB)

1182
Medium-Range Ensemble Forecast Tools at the Weather Prediction Center
William S. Lamberson, IMSG, College Park, MD

1183
A Probabilistic Tropical Cyclone Track Uncertainty “Cone” Using Multi-Model Ensembles
Derek Ortt, StormGeo, Inc, Houston, TX; and C. Hebert, B. Weinzapfel, and D. Eyre

1184
Comparison of Forecast Ensemble Spread to a Weather Feature Based Confidence Index
William Capehart, South Dakota School of Mines and Technology, Rapid City, SD; and M. Kern and A. Penning

Handout (4.5 MB)

1185
Using a Frequently Updated, Storm-Scale Ensemble Prediction System for Short-Term Prediction of Heavy Rainfall
Nusrat Yussouf, CIMMS/OU/NSSL, Norman, OK; and J. S. Kain and A. J. Clark

1186
Evaluations of WRF New Features with an Operational Army Ensemble Prediction System
Linlin Pan, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and Y. Liu, G. Roux, Y. Wu, J. Knievel, L. Delle Monache, J. Pace, and S. Halvorson

1187
Evaluation of Real-Time Machine Learning Hail Forecasts from the NCAR Convection-Allowing Ensemble
David John Gagne II, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and A. McGovern, R. A. Sobash, S. E. Haupt, and J. K. Williams

Handout (2.7 MB)

1188
NCEP GEFS V11 Reforecast and its Application
hong guan, SRG Inc. at NOAA/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and Y. Zhu

1189
Advances in Detection of Overshooting Cloud Tops Within Satellite Imagery Based on Pattern Recognition Algorithms
Konstantin V. Khlopenkov, SSAI, Hampton, VA; and K. M. Bedka

1190
Deriving Precipitation Type Probabilities in the National Blend of Models
Dan A. Baumgardt, NWS, La Crosse, WI; and A. Just and P. E. Shafer

Handout (2.8 MB)

1191
Evaluation of Several Spatial Filtering Methods for Probabilistic CPM Ensemble Forecasts
Benjamin T. Blake, IMSG and NOAA/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and J. R. Carley, T. Alcott, I. Jankov, M. Pyle, and A. J. Clark

1192
Real-Time WRF Multi-Physics Ensemble-RTFDDA System with Downscaling of Multiple Global Model Forecasts for SGCC Electric Power Applications
William Y. Y. Cheng, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and Y. Liu, G. Roux, Y. Liu, S. Feng, S. Jin, J. Hu, and C. Liu

1193
The Assimilation of FY3C GNOS Radio Occultation Observations within GRAPES 3D-Var: Assimilated Experiments and Forecast Impact
Jincheng Wang, CMA, Beijing, China

1194
Improvement of Wind Speed Prediction Using Statistical and Analog Techniques for NE U.S
Jaemo Yang, Univ. of Connecticut, Storrs, CT; and M. Astitha, L. D. Monache, and S. Alessandrini

1195
Quantile Regression and Logistic Regression Combined for Calibration of a Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction System (EPS)

1196
Improving 2-m Temperature Spread in the Next NCEP Global Ensemble
Walter Kolczynski Jr., NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC via IMSG, College Park, MD; and M. Gehne, G. Bates, J. Meng, T. M. Hamill, Y. Zhu, and D. Hou

1197
Ensemble Forecasts and Regional EnKF Data Assimilation for Prediction of Lake-Effect Snow
Seth Saslo, Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA; and S. J. Greybush

1198
Development of a Three-Dimensional Spectral Element Model for NWP: Idealized Simulations on the Sphere

1199
Coupling NWP Physics to a Three-Dimensional Spectral Element MODEL
Alex Reinecke, NRL, Monterey, CA; and K. Viner, D. Durran, S. Gabersek, M. Martini, J. Doyle, D. D. Flagg, D. R. Ryglicki, and F. X. Giraldo

1200
Testing of the New WRF-ARW Hybrid Vertical Coordinate in RAP and HRRR
J. M. Brown, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and J. B. Olson, T. G. Smirnova, T. Alcott, S. G. Benjamin, D. Gill, and J. B. Klemp

1201
Use of Stochastic Physics Approaches Within Rapid Refresh and High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Ensembles

1202
RAP/HRRR Model Physics Development
Joseph B. Olson, NOAA-ESRL/GSD; CIRES, Boulder, CO; and J. Kenyon, J. M. Brown, C. Alexander, T. Smirnova, G. Grell, I. Jankov, S. Benjamin, G. Thompson, W. M. Angevine, and S. Weygandt

1203
Upgrades of GRAPES_TYM in 2016 and Its Performance
Suhong Ma, NWPD/NMC, Beijing, China

1204
The Nested Domains of Version 4 of the NAM Forecast System
Jacob R. Carley, IMSG and NOAA/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and E. Rogers, B. S. Ferrier, E. Aligo, Z. Janjic, S. Liu, Y. Lin, D. F. Parrish, M. Pyle, W. S. Wu, Y. Wu, and G. J. DiMego

Handout (2.3 MB)

1205
NMMB Model Changes as Part of the NAMv4 Upgrade
Brad S. Ferrier, IMSG/NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and Z. Janjic, E. Aligo, D. Jovic, E. Rogers, J. R. Carley, M. Pyle, and G. J. DiMego

Handout (915.6 kB)

1206
Introduction to Next NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS)
Yuejian Zhu, NCEP, College Park, MD

1207
Development and Evaluation of NEMS GFS for 2017 Implementation
Fanglin Yang, NOAA, College Park, MD; and V. Tallapragada

1208
Addressing Uncertainties in Cloud Top Height Verification with Synthetic Brightness Temperatures
Jason E. Nachamkin, NRL, Monterey, CA; and Y. Jin, L. D. Grasso, and K. Richardson

Sensitivity of Physical Parameterization Schemes to Stochastic Initial Conditions in WRF Tornado Outbreak Simulations

1209
Evaluating NOAA Climate Forecasting System Subseasonal Forecasts
Nicholas Weber, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. F. Mass

Handout (1.3 MB)

1210
Using Landmarks to Verify Complex Meteorological Phenomena
Jason E. Nachamkin, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Grasso and Y. Jin

1211
Development of Statistical Post-Processing Techniques for Improved Low-Level Wind Speed Forecasts in West Texas
Meghan J. Mitchell, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. Ancell, J. A. Lee, S. Haupt, and L. Delle Monache

1212
Contributions of Moist Convection and Internal Gravity Waves to Building the Atmospheric ââ‚₀Å“-5/3ââ‚₀ Kinetic Energy Spectra
Y. Qiang Sun, Pennsylvania State University, State College, PA; and R. Rotunno and F. Zhang

Poster 1213 will now be presented as 15B.4A

1214
Temperature and Precipitation Forecasts in Complex Terrain Using Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization Ensembles
Timothy C. Y. Chui, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and D. M. Siuta and R. B. Stull

1215
Numerical Analysis of Fog Predictability over National Center for Intensive Observation of Severe Weather (NCIO)
WonHeung Kim, Yonsei Univ., Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and S. S. Yum and C. K. Kim

1216
Evolution of HRRR Warm Season Convective Precipitation Forecasts Over Three Years of Model Development
Janice L. Bytheway, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and C. D. Kummerow

1217
Sensitivity of a TPV to a Downstream Forecast Bust
Christopher P. Riedel, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and S. Cavallo

1218
Using Regression Mixture Model Clustering to Partition Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasts from Ensemble Prediction Systems
Jenni L. Evans, Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA; and A. Kowaleski

1219
Evaluating Global, High Resolution, and Ensemble Models with the HiRA Framework
Nicholas Chisler, Unite States Air Force

1220
Evaluation of Real-Time WRF Forecasts Over the Mid-Atlantic
Troy J. Arcomano, Univ. of Maryland, Oakhurst, NJ; and C. R. Martin, D. T. Kleist, G. M. Mazzuca, and T. C. Sluka

1221
An Impact Study of NCEP GEFS TC Track Forecast
Yuejian Zhu, NCEP, College Park, MD; and X. Zhou, B. Fu, and J. Peng

1222
Are the Discrimination Ability and Maximum Economic Value of a Forecast System Affected by Forecast Biases?
Hui-Ling Chang, Central Weather Bureau, Taipei, Taiwan; and S. C. Yang

Handout (715.2 kB)

1223
Impact of initial SST fields on Hurricane Edouard (2014) forecasts with the HWRF model
Jili Dong, IMSG at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and L. Zhu, H. S. Kim, P. J. Fitzpatrick, and A. Mehra

1224
Downscaling Temperature Forecasts along the Coast
Ivar A Seierstad, MET, OSLO, Norway; and T. Nipen

Handout (2.2 MB)

1225
Atmospheric Composition Studies with the GEOS Models
Steven Pawson, GMAO, Greenbelt, MD; and J. E. Nielsen, A. S. Darmenov, C. A. Keller, A. Molod, L. Ott, W. M. Putman, A. Da Silva, K. Wargan, and B. Weir

1226
Evaluation of Global Numerical Weather Prediction Model Extended-Range Forecasts
Song Yang, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. Reynolds, J. Ridout, and M. Flatau

1227
Examining Sources of Variability in Model Skill during the 7 January 2013 Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event
Jonathan L. Blufer, SUNY, Albany, NY; and A. L. Lang and L. F. Bosart

1228
NOAA MAPP Program Research and Transition Initiatives to Advance Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction
Heather M. Archambault, NOAA, Princeton, NJ; and D. Barrie and A. Mariotti

1229
Verification and validation of a Navy ESPC hindcast with loosely coupled data assimilation
E. Joseph Metzger, NRL, Stennis Space Center, MS; and N. P. Barton, O. M. Smedstad, B. Ruston, A. Wallcraft, T. R. Whitcomb, J. Ridout, D. S. Franklin, L. Zamudio, P. Posey, C. Reynolds, and M. W. Phelps

1230
Understanding Subseasonal Extremes: The Missouri Floods of December 2015
Shih-Yu (Simon) Wang, Utah State Univ., Logan, UT; and B. O. Fosu

1231
Subseasonal Forecasting Skill with Advanced Coupled Models including the 30km FIM-HYCOM Model
Stan Benjamin, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and S. Sun, B. Green, R. Bleck, G. A. Grell, and H. Li

1232
NOAA's Next Generation Global Prediction System and the National Earth System Prediction Capability
Fred Toepfer, NOAA, Silver Spring, MD; and T. Schneider, V. Tallapragada, J. C. Carman, and D. McCarren

U.S. Air Force Weather Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction: Pushing the limits of predictability to optimize National Defense

- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates an Award Winner
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