Poster Session 3 WAF/NWP Posters: Numerical Weather Prediction

Wednesday, 25 January 2017: 2:30 PM-4:00 PM
4E (Washington State Convention Center )
Host: 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Rebecca Adams-Selin, AER, Offutt AFB, NE and Alexander O. Tardy, NOAA/NWS, Weather Forecast Office, San Diego, CA

Posters on the Topics of: Global and Mesoscale Models, Data Assimilation, Ensemble Techniques, New and Unique Observational Datasets, Season to Subseasonal Prediction, and Other NWP Contributions

Assimilation of Null-echo from Radar Observations for Short-term Precipitation Forecasting
Ki-Hong Min, Kyungpook National Univ., Daegu, Korea, Republic of (South); and Y. Kim, K. Park, and G. Lee

Improved GSI Forward Model for Surface Observations on Coastlines
Ming Hu, CIRES, boulder, CO; and M. Liu, S. Weygandt, S. G. Benjamin, and C. Alexander

Assimilation of GPM GMI rainrate product with community GSI and case study result
Xuanli Li, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and J. Srikishen, B. T. Zavodsky, and J. R. Mecikalski

The Influence of a Digit Filer Initialization on HWRF Hurricane Forecasting
Shixuan Zhang, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and Z. Pu

Poster 1166 will now be presented as J7.1A

The Potential of Smartphone Pressure Observations Evaluated in a Convective Case Study
Luke E. Madaus, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. F. Mass

Assessment of Ensemble Forecast Sensitivity to Observation (EFSO) Quantities for Satellite Radiances Assimilated in the 4DEnVar GFS
David Groff, IMSG/NOAA/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and K. Ide, R. Mahajan, and Y. Zhu

Handout (2.5 MB)

Exploring Forecast Sensitivity through an Ensemble of Varying Land Surface Parameterizations, Soil Moisture, and Vegetation Characteristics
Andrew L. Molthan, NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, AL; and J. L. Case, J. Srikishen, and B. T. Zavodsky

Statistical Method for Estimating Wind Arrival Times from Tropical Cyclones
Jeri Lynn Schwietert, CyberData Technologies, Inc., Herndon, VA; and M. DeMaria, M. Onderlinde, C. Mattocks, R. Berg, and A. Schumacher

NAEFS Next Generation Product Upgrade and Plan
Bo Cui, IMSG at EMC/NCEP, College Park, MD; and Y. Zhu, H. Guan, and Y. Luo

Numerical Simulations of the Florida Sea Breeze and Its Associated Convection with the WRF Model
Nessa E Hock, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and Z. Pu

Handout (8.3 MB)

Medium-Range Ensemble Forecast Tools at the Weather Prediction Center
William S. Lamberson, IMSG, College Park, MD

Comparison of Forecast Ensemble Spread to a Weather Feature Based Confidence Index
William Capehart, South Dakota School of Mines and Technology, Rapid City, SD; and M. Kern and A. Penning

Handout (4.5 MB)

Evaluations of WRF New Features with an Operational Army Ensemble Prediction System
Linlin Pan, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and Y. Liu, G. Roux, Y. Wu, J. Knievel, L. Delle Monache, J. Pace, and S. Halvorson

NCEP GEFS V11 Reforecast and its Application
hong guan, SRG Inc. at NOAA/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and Y. Zhu

Deriving Precipitation Type Probabilities in the National Blend of Models
Dan A. Baumgardt, NWS, La Crosse, WI; and A. Just and P. E. Shafer

Handout (2.8 MB)

Evaluation of Several Spatial Filtering Methods for Probabilistic CPM Ensemble Forecasts
Benjamin T. Blake, IMSG and NOAA/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and J. R. Carley, T. Alcott, I. Jankov, M. Pyle, and A. J. Clark

Improvement of Wind Speed Prediction Using Statistical and Analog Techniques for NE U.S
Jaemo Yang, Univ. of Connecticut, Storrs, CT; and M. Astitha, L. D. Monache, and S. Alessandrini

Improving 2-m Temperature Spread in the Next NCEP Global Ensemble
Walter Kolczynski Jr., NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC via IMSG, College Park, MD; and M. Gehne, G. Bates, J. Meng, T. M. Hamill, Y. Zhu, and D. Hou

Ensemble Forecasts and Regional EnKF Data Assimilation for Prediction of Lake-Effect Snow
Seth Saslo, Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA; and S. J. Greybush

Coupling NWP Physics to a Three-Dimensional Spectral Element MODEL
Alex Reinecke, NRL, Monterey, CA; and K. Viner, D. Durran, S. Gabersek, M. Martini, J. Doyle, D. D. Flagg, D. R. Ryglicki, and F. X. Giraldo

Testing of the New WRF-ARW Hybrid Vertical Coordinate in RAP and HRRR
J. M. Brown, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and J. B. Olson, T. G. Smirnova, T. Alcott, S. G. Benjamin, D. Gill, and J. B. Klemp

RAP/HRRR Model Physics Development
Joseph B. Olson, NOAA-ESRL/GSD; CIRES, Boulder, CO; and J. Kenyon, J. M. Brown, C. Alexander, T. Smirnova, G. Grell, I. Jankov, S. Benjamin, G. Thompson, W. M. Angevine, and S. Weygandt

Upgrades of GRAPES_TYM in 2016 and Its Performance
Suhong Ma, NWPD/NMC, Beijing, China

The Nested Domains of Version 4 of the NAM Forecast System
Jacob R. Carley, IMSG and NOAA/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and E. Rogers, B. S. Ferrier, E. Aligo, Z. Janjic, S. Liu, Y. Lin, D. F. Parrish, M. Pyle, W. S. Wu, Y. Wu, and G. J. DiMego

Handout (2.3 MB)

NMMB Model Changes as Part of the NAMv4 Upgrade
Brad S. Ferrier, IMSG/NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and Z. Janjic, E. Aligo, D. Jovic, E. Rogers, J. R. Carley, M. Pyle, and G. J. DiMego

Handout (915.6 kB)

Addressing Uncertainties in Cloud Top Height Verification with Synthetic Brightness Temperatures
Jason E. Nachamkin, NRL, Monterey, CA; and Y. Jin, L. D. Grasso, and K. Richardson

Evaluating NOAA Climate Forecasting System Subseasonal Forecasts
Nicholas Weber, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. F. Mass

Handout (1.3 MB)

Using Landmarks to Verify Complex Meteorological Phenomena
Jason E. Nachamkin, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Grasso and Y. Jin

Poster 1213 will now be presented as 15B.4A

Numerical Analysis of Fog Predictability over National Center for Intensive Observation of Severe Weather (NCIO)
WonHeung Kim, Yonsei Univ., Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and S. S. Yum and C. K. Kim

Evolution of HRRR Warm Season Convective Precipitation Forecasts Over Three Years of Model Development
Janice L. Bytheway, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and C. D. Kummerow

Sensitivity of a TPV to a Downstream Forecast Bust
Christopher P. Riedel, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and S. Cavallo

Evaluation of Real-Time WRF Forecasts Over the Mid-Atlantic
Troy J. Arcomano, Univ. of Maryland, Oakhurst, NJ; and C. R. Martin, D. T. Kleist, G. M. Mazzuca, and T. C. Sluka

An Impact Study of NCEP GEFS TC Track Forecast
Yuejian Zhu, NCEP, College Park, MD; and X. Zhou, B. Fu, and J. Peng

Are the Discrimination Ability and Maximum Economic Value of a Forecast System Affected by Forecast Biases?
Hui-Ling Chang, Central Weather Bureau, Taipei, Taiwan; and S. C. Yang

Handout (715.2 kB)

Impact of initial SST fields on Hurricane Edouard (2014) forecasts with the HWRF model
Jili Dong, IMSG at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and L. Zhu, H. S. Kim, P. J. Fitzpatrick, and A. Mehra

Atmospheric Composition Studies with the GEOS Models
Steven Pawson, GMAO, Greenbelt, MD; and J. E. Nielsen, A. S. Darmenov, C. A. Keller, A. Molod, L. Ott, W. M. Putman, A. Da Silva, K. Wargan, and B. Weir

Evaluation of Global Numerical Weather Prediction Model Extended-Range Forecasts
Song Yang, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. Reynolds, J. Ridout, and M. Flatau

NOAA MAPP Program Research and Transition Initiatives to Advance Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction
Heather M. Archambault, NOAA, Princeton, NJ; and D. Barrie and A. Mariotti

Verification and validation of a Navy ESPC hindcast with loosely coupled data assimilation
E. Joseph Metzger, NRL, Stennis Space Center, MS; and N. P. Barton, O. M. Smedstad, B. Ruston, A. Wallcraft, T. R. Whitcomb, J. Ridout, D. S. Franklin, L. Zamudio, P. Posey, C. Reynolds, and M. W. Phelps

Understanding Subseasonal Extremes: The Missouri Floods of December 2015
Shih-Yu (Simon) Wang, Utah State Univ., Logan, UT; and B. O. Fosu

Subseasonal Forecasting Skill with Advanced Coupled Models including the 30km FIM-HYCOM Model
Stan Benjamin, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and S. Sun, B. Green, R. Bleck, G. A. Grell, and H. Li

- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates an Award Winner