1219 Evaluating Global, High Resolution, and Ensemble Models with the HiRA Framework

Wednesday, 25 January 2017
4E (Washington State Convention Center )
Nicholas Chisler, Unite States Air Force

The 2nd Weather Group, 557th Weather Wing (WW), Offutt AFB, NE runs a global modeling suite to support worldwide warfighting operations. To improve ongoing model verification efforts, the 557th WW  implemented a new framework to assess model performance. Traditional verification metrics use single model-observation pairs and can penalize high-resolution models more than coarser resolution models due to the double penalty effect. Furthermore, deterministic versus stochastic forecast comparisons are challenging with traditional metrics. This study uses a neighborhood approach to verification called the High Resolution Assessment (HiRA) framework. The HiRA framework is being evaluated as a method for direct comparison of the various components of the 557th WW’s operational suite (consisting of a global, mesoscale, and ensemble models). This presentation provides the results for studies over CONUS, Northern Africa, and Southwest Asia.

- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates an Award Winner