Evaluating Global, High Resolution, and Ensemble Models with the HiRA Framework

The 2^nd Weather Group, 557^th Weather Wing (WW), Offutt AFB, NE runs a global modeling suite to support worldwide warfighting operations. To improve ongoing model verification efforts, the 557^th WW  implemented a new framework to assess model performance. Traditional verification metrics use single model-observation pairs and can penalize high-resolution models more than coarser resolution models due to the double penalty effect. Furthermore, deterministic versus stochastic forecast comparisons are challenging with traditional metrics. This study uses a neighborhood approach to verification called the High Resolution Assessment (HiRA) framework. The HiRA framework is being evaluated as a method for direct comparison of the various components of the 557^th WW’s operational suite (consisting of a global, mesoscale, and ensemble models). This presentation provides the results for studies over CONUS, Northern Africa, and Southwest Asia.