Numerical Simulations of the Florida Sea Breeze and Its Associated Convection with the WRF Model

The role of the sea breeze in initiating Florida peninsular convective events is studied by high-resolution numerical simulations using an advanced research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model.  Simulation results were compared with an observed mesoscale sea breeze and related meteorological conditions.  A sea breeze case on 6 September 2012 was studied using observations covering central and southern Florida.  The sensitivity of numerical simulations of the sea breeze event to various WRF model physical parameterizations, such as planetary boundary layer (PBL), microphysics, cumulus, and radiation was examined.  A four-level-nested domain configuration with horizontal grid spacings of 27, 9, 3, and 1 km was used for the simulations. 

Results show that all of the simulations were able to reproduce the life cycle of the sea-breeze circulation and the convective cells accompanied with it.  The numerical simulations are very sensitive to the microphysics, cumulus, and boundary layer schemes as they lead diversified results in simulated precipitation intensity, the spatial location of the sea breeze front, and the duration of the precipitation and sea breeze events.  The best numerical simulation is identified.  Meanwhile, since a series of these sensitivity experiments generate a set of ensemble forecast, the probability and uncertainty of the numerical simulations are also investigated.  Moreover, numerical results are further diagnosed in order to understand the dynamic and physical mechanisms that control interactions between and evolution of the sea breeze and its convective system. Details will be presented in the symposium.