NAEFS Next Generation Product Upgrade and Plan

The North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) is an operational multi-center ensemble forecast system jointly supported by the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC), the National Meteorological Service of Mexico (NMSM), and the US National Weather Service (NWS). Currently NAEFS provides 1) calibrated probabilistic products at 1× 1 degree resolution globally and (2) downscaled probabilistic products that match the NDGD spatial resolution, i.e. 2.5km for CONUS and 3km for Alaska.

This study will focus on NAEFS next generation (version 6) products upgrade and implementation. 1) Add new bias corrected NAEFS/GEFS 0.5×0.5 degree products. 2) Generate new multi-model probabilistic products by using Recursive Bayesian Model Process (RBMP) to process three bias corrected ensembles NCEP, CMC and FNMOC at 0.5×0.5 degree resolution globally.  3). Add new precipitation products after bias correction and downscaling processes. 4). Add Relative Measure of Predictability (RMOP) products for WPC/CPC and other users. The anomaly forecast or Extreme Forecast Index (EFI)) images will be generated as well.