313045 U.S. Air Force Weather Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction: Pushing the limits of predictability to optimize National Defense

Wednesday, 25 January 2017
4E (Washington State Convention Center )
Ralph O. Stoffler, U.S. Air Force, Washington, DC

Future frontiers of Numerical Weather Modeling advancement include tackling the forecasting gap between 2-6 weeks.  Further research is needed to bridge the distance between dynamical weather prediction and seasonal prediction.  Specifically for the U.S. Air Force Weather (AFW) functional community and the Defense services and agencies it supports, characterizing and exploiting accurate prediction of anomalous phenomena on the Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) scale (e.g. long-term flooding, catastrophic flash drought events, deadly heat waves, monsoonal and teleconnection [e.g. MJO] pattern changes, tropical cyclone activity, etc.) are critical to informing National Defense leaders of the potential for environmentally-induced humanitarian disasters where Department of Defense personnel are asked to respond.  Improving the skill of S2S models over climatology also optimizes the military decision-maker’s long-term planning capability.  As further research is completed by our interagency partners to push the limits of S2S predictability, and the skill of current and new S2S parameters (e.g. temperature, precipitation, clouds, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture, etc.) continues to mature, AFW is poised to take advantage of the cutting-edge prediction capabilities and quickly transition such research to operational use in order to optimize National Defense.
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