Quantile Regression and Logistic Regression Combined for Calibration of a Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction System (EPS)

Since 2007, weather forecasters at Dugway Proving Ground (DPG), UT have relied on a mesoscale ensemble prediction system (EPS) known as the Ensemble Four-Dimensional Weather System (E-4DWX).  In 2014, E-4DWX was extended to three more test ranges in the Great Basin of the United States.  The ensemble’s predictions of subset of near-surface variables are dynamically calibrated through algorithms that combine logistic regression and quantile regression, generating statistically realistic probabilistic depictions of the atmosphere’s future state.  The authors will describe the calibration technique and highlight how it is innovative, review its performance, and present examples of how forecasters use calibrated output from the ensemble.