NOAA MAPP Program Research and Transition Initiatives to Advance Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction

There is great practical interest in developing predictions beyond the 2-week weather timescale. Scientific communities have historically organized themselves around the weather and climate problems, but the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescale range overall is recognized as new territory for which a concerted shared effort is needed.  For instance, the climate community has historically tackled coupled phenomena and modeling, keys to harnessing predictability on longer timescales. In contrast, the weather community has focused on synoptic dynamics, higher-resolution modeling, and enhanced model initialization, of importance at the shorter timescales and especially for the prediction of extremes. The processes and phenomena specific to timescales between weather and climate require a unified approach to science, modeling, and predictions. Internationally, the WWRP/WCRP S2S Prediction Project is a promising catalyzer for these types of activities.

Among the various contributing U.S. research programs, the Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections (MAPP) Program, as part of the NOAA Climate Program Office, has launched coordinated research and transition activities that help to meet agency and National Earth System Prediction Capability goals to fill the weather-to-climate prediction gap. This presentation will describe ongoing S2S science and prediction initiatives led by the MAPP Program. A particular focus of the presentation will be on the new NOAA S2S Prediction Task Force and the Subseasonal Prediction Experiment, SubX.